Dipre's FEARLESS prediction thread.

[Dipre]

Taking a page from Gom's book (God help me) i shall make my predictions about what i think will have happened at season's end, so that i can call people out or they can call me out and they can maybe be quiet a couple of minutes with the negativity, and bitching and moaning. All in April.

 

1) The Red Sox will be one of the top three teams in league ERA. Beckett rights the ship, Lester keeps being Lester, Bucholz breaks though, Lackey starts being Lackey and between Dice-K/Wake, we get something decent.

 

2) Adrian Beltre will finish with 45+ XBH. And i will laugh out loud.

 

3) Mike Cameron will provide solid Defense and above average offense from CF upon his return from the DL. Self explanatory.

 

4) Dustin Pedroia will top 20 HR's for the first time.

5) The Red Sox brass will alter their pitcher's approach with men on base and the NASCAR track that every Red Sox game has become will be greatly neutralized.

 

6) Neither David Ortiz nor Mike Lowell will be members of the Red Sox come September. Just a hunch, but i think the Sox trade Lowell and cut Ortiz, the reason being in the next prediction.....

 

7) The Red Sox will trade for an impact bat. Ortiz looks done. My guess remains Adam Dunn.

 

8) Adrian Beltre will return to his defensive excellence. It's all been about boneheaded mistakes, rushed throws and incorrect decisions. Nothing physically wrong.

 

9) Fenway Park will yield more Home Runs to RHH's than any other park in the Majors. This one's for Doiji.

 

10) The bullpen will improve greatly before the All-Star Break rolls around, and stay that way. Delcarmen stays healthy and effective, Okajima and RR hit their stride along the way. Bard becomes a lights-out setup man.

 

11) The Red Sox will score over 830 runs. You heard it here first, folks.

 

12) Marco Scutaro will be a bust. I said it before many times, and i'll say it again. I don't like him. He'll be acceptable on offense, but he's nothing special on the field.

 

13) The bench, perceived as a strength in the early stages of the season, will become a weakness down the stretch for the Sox. Bill Hall improves somewhat, but McDonald and Hermida come back down to earth, while Varitek wears down as the season progresses. The lack of an option besides Scutaro at SS comes back to bite the Sox.

 

14) JD Drew will post his customary .900+ OPS with 20+ bombs thanks to an extremely hot month in which he will carry the team. Not many RBI's though.

 

15) Over 4,000 panic posts will be made between now and the end of the season, with at least 100 "We should've signed Teixeira" posts tagging along for the ride.

 

16) Victor Martinez will not cost the Red Sox team ERA half a run.

 

17) Last but not least, the Red Sox will make the playoffs via Wildcard with a 95-67 record, two games ahead of the Rays.

[Emmz]

I wanna see "Suns' FEARLESS predictions"

 

Everyone make FEARLESS predictions threads.

[Gom]

Well, you really didn't say anything outside of the Red Sox, which doesn't really make it fearless. Maybe slightly brave, but definitely not fearless.

 

My questions are as follows:

 

#3. How do you figure out the defense now that UZR is useless?

#5. How? This makes no sense. What exactly will they do, have Youk hold on to the runners belt?

#16. Definitely fearless, considering he's at an ERA of 4.79. What was the Sox's ERA last year, WITHOUT Lackey? 4.26, if memory serves correctly. [Didn't look it up].

 

Other than that, kind of tame. Need more controversial predictions. However, glad to see you join the team.

[Red Foreman]

Taking a page from Gom's book (God help me) i shall make my predictions about what i think will have happened at season's end, so that i can call people out or they can call me out and they can maybe be quiet a couple of minutes with the negativity, and bitching and moaning. All in April.

 

1) The Red Sox will be one of the top three teams in league ERA. Beckett rights the ship, Lester keeps being Lester, Bucholz breaks though, Lackey starts being Lackey and between Dice-K/Wake, we get something decent.

 

2) Adrian Beltre will finish with 45+ XBH. And i will laugh out loud.

 

3) Mike Cameron will provide solid Defense and above average offense from CF upon his return from the DL. Self explanatory.

 

4) Dustin Pedroia will top 20 HR's for the first time.

5) The Red Sox brass will alter their pitcher's approach with men on base and the NASCAR track that every Red Sox game has become will be greatly neutralized.

 

6) Neither David Ortiz nor Mike Lowell will be members of the Red Sox come September. Just a hunch, but i think the Sox trade Lowell and cut Ortiz, the reason being in the next prediction.....

 

7) The Red Sox will trade for an impact bat. Ortiz looks done. My guess remains Adam Dunn.

 

8) Adrian Beltre will return to his defensive excellence. It's all been about boneheaded mistakes, rushed throws and incorrect decisions. Nothing physically wrong.

 

9) Fenway Park will yield more Home Runs to RHH's than any other park in the Majors. This one's for Doiji.

 

10) The bullpen will improve greatly before the All-Star Break rolls around, and stay that way. Delcarmen stays healthy and effective, Okajima and RR hit their stride along the way. Bard becomes a lights-out setup man.

 

11) The Red Sox will score over 830 runs. You heard it here first, folks.

 

12) Marco Scutaro will be a bust. I said it before many times, and i'll say it again. I don't like him. He'll be acceptable on offense, but he's nothing special on the field.

 

13) The bench, perceived as a strength in the early stages of the season, will become a weakness down the stretch for the Sox. Bill Hall improves somewhat, but McDonald and Hermida come back down to earth, while Varitek wears down as the season progresses. The lack of an option besides Scutaro at SS comes back to bite the Sox.

 

14) JD Drew will post his customary .900+ OPS with 20+ bombs thanks to an extremely hot month in which he will carry the team. Not many RBI's though.

 

15) Over 4,000 panic posts will be made between now and the end of the season, with at least 100 "We should've signed Teixeira" posts tagging along for the ride.

 

16) Victor Martinez will not cost the Red Sox team ERA half a run.

 

17) Last but not least, the Red Sox will make the playoffs via Wildcard with a 95-67 record, two games ahead of the Rays.

 

#1 Iagree, I put more faith into the Dice side of the equation though, no disrespect intended to Wake,I just think Dice will be strong this year.

 

#2 If he doesn't finish with more than 45 XBH he'll be looking for a job at any price.

 

#3 agreed.

 

#4 agreed.

 

#5 We'll see. I'mstill impressed with both your English and your knowledge of US pop culture.

 

#6 I don't see Papi being cut.

 

#7 I'd like to see it but likeI said, I don't see Papi being cut.

 

#8 Hopefully the snakes don't bother him too much.

 

#9 Makes sense.

 

#10 agreed.

 

#11 Maybe, hopefully they won'tall be scored in 90 games.

 

#12 Agreed on your sentiments of him but to be a bust he'll have to be horrible considering what we've had from SS. I'll add that at SS I predict we'll still be wondering if Iglesias will be able tit at the ML level.

 

#13 like SS Idon't think the bar is set too high, I think Hermida is performing as expected(in mymind anyway)

 

#14 Wayyyy agree.

 

#15 Probably, don't know the lay of land here though.

 

#16 Disagree, I don't think he can call a game, throw a runner out or field a ball on a play at the plate.

 

#17 Agree, give or take a win or two.

[Emmz]

I bet Jacko's FEARLESS predictions would be a good one too.

 

1) The Yankees will win 163 games during the regular season

 

2) The Yankees will sweep through the playoffs

 

3) The Yankees will defeat the National League All-Star team in the World Series, winning 4 games to 1

 

4) The Red Sox will collectively hit .137, and their entire farm system will be ruined by career-ending injuries

[Dipre]

Well, you really didn't say anything outside of the Red Sox, which doesn't really make it fearless. Maybe slightly brave, but definitely not fearless.

 

My questions are as follows:

 

#3. How do you figure out the defense now that UZR is useless?

You still don't know how it works, or what was the adjustment made. Your point is moot until you figure out how UZR works and how it measures fielders.

 

#5. How? This makes no sense. What exactly will they do, have Youk hold on to the runners belt?

Doesn't make sense because you don't know what you're talking about because you don't watch a lot of Red Sox games. I suggest you try and find an earlier game of the Red Sox from this year, and you'll notice that A) Sox pitchers don't use a pronounced slide step, and B ) They barely hold the runners back. This topic has been discussed Ad Nauseum, but most of the problems with holding opposing runners in check stems from the pitchers not holding them back. Huge leads + noodle arm= Tons of Stolen Bases.

 

 

#16. Definitely fearless, considering he's at an ERA of 4.79. What was the Sox's ERA last year, WITHOUT Lackey? 4.26, if memory serves correctly. [Didn't look it up].

Because CERA is a useless stat. A good pitcher is a good pitcher, and will generally throw well to any catcher with some notable exceptions. Framing pitches has little to do with pitcher's efectiveness.

 

Other than that, kind of tame. Need more controversial predictions. However, glad to see you join the team.

 

Ok.

[Palodios]

Some good predictions in there. I would be surprised if Pedroia hits 20+ bombs-- he's slowed down a ton lately, and he's just not built for it. And I see the extra rest being very good for Varitek.

[Dipre]

Some good predictions in there. I would be surprised if Pedroia hits 20+ bombs-- he's slowed down a ton lately' date=' and he's just not built for it. And I see the extra rest being very good for Varitek.[/quote']

 

I think the Pedroia prediction is indeed FEARLESS.

 

I'm basing my assesment on Varitek on Tito's love for veterans. He'll try to get him as much playing time as possible and will probably wear him down.

[Red Foreman]

Some good predictions in there. I would be surprised if Pedroia hits 20+ bombs-- he's slowed down a ton lately' date=' and he's just not built for it. And I see the extra rest being very good for Varitek.[/quote']

 

 

Forget build with Pedroia, his bat speed is insane.

[Dojji]

9) Fenway Park will yield more Home Runs to RHH's than any other park in the Majors. This one's for Doiji.

 

That IS fearless, considering it never has done so before and we're not exactly blessed with an uberslugging team. .

 

This is a great park for RHH power (IE RHH slugging), but it only surrenders more HR to RHH than LHH because it's so deep to right center and straightaway center. Last 4 years this has been an average park for RHH homers and a park that depresses HR's overall (just less so to LF than to any other field). As a park for RHH to homer in, Fenway's about average among stadiums.

 

The reason that doesn't mean this is a terrible SLG park for RHH should be fairly obvious. It's an short flight to the left field wall. There's a whole flavor of doubles that can only be hit at Fenway. The wall-kissers like the one Darnell McDonald got that walkoff on last week. Also a lot of blasts that would be HR's in some parks, you know the kind I mean, the low line drive lasers that take about two seconds to clear the outfield wall but are never more than about 30 feet off the ground. Between the two this is, bar none, the best park in the league in which to double.

 

So what you have right, is that Beltre should get a lot of XBH. Just don't expect more than about 20 of them to be of the long variety, with less than half of those at Fenway

[BucShot]

17) Last but not least, the Red Sox will make the playoffs via Wildcard with a 95-67 record, two games ahead of the Rays.

 

OK help me out people cause I'm new here. Dipre is the resident homer, right?

[TheMino007]

Taking a page from Gom's book (God help me) i shall make my predictions about what i think will have happened at season's end, so that i can call people out or they can call me out and they can maybe be quiet a couple of minutes with the negativity, and bitching and moaning. All in April.

 

1) The Red Sox will be one of the top three teams in league ERA. Beckett rights the ship, Lester keeps being Lester, Bucholz breaks though, Lackey starts being Lackey and between Dice-K/Wake, we get something decent.

 

2) Adrian Beltre will finish with 45+ XBH. And i will laugh out loud.

 

3) Mike Cameron will provide solid Defense and above average offense from CF upon his return from the DL. Self explanatory.

 

4) Dustin Pedroia will top 20 HR's for the first time.

5) The Red Sox brass will alter their pitcher's approach with men on base and the NASCAR track that every Red Sox game has become will be greatly neutralized.

 

6) Neither David Ortiz nor Mike Lowell will be members of the Red Sox come September. Just a hunch, but i think the Sox trade Lowell and cut Ortiz, the reason being in the next prediction.....

 

7) The Red Sox will trade for an impact bat. Ortiz looks done. My guess remains Adam Dunn.

 

8) Adrian Beltre will return to his defensive excellence. It's all been about boneheaded mistakes, rushed throws and incorrect decisions. Nothing physically wrong.

 

9) Fenway Park will yield more Home Runs to RHH's than any other park in the Majors. This one's for Doiji.

 

10) The bullpen will improve greatly before the All-Star Break rolls around, and stay that way. Delcarmen stays healthy and effective, Okajima and RR hit their stride along the way. Bard becomes a lights-out setup man.

 

11) The Red Sox will score over 830 runs. You heard it here first, folks.

 

12) Marco Scutaro will be a bust. I said it before many times, and i'll say it again. I don't like him. He'll be acceptable on offense, but he's nothing special on the field.

 

13) The bench, perceived as a strength in the early stages of the season, will become a weakness down the stretch for the Sox. Bill Hall improves somewhat, but McDonald and Hermida come back down to earth, while Varitek wears down as the season progresses. The lack of an option besides Scutaro at SS comes back to bite the Sox.

 

14) JD Drew will post his customary .900+ OPS with 20+ bombs thanks to an extremely hot month in which he will carry the team. Not many RBI's though.

 

15) Over 4,000 panic posts will be made between now and the end of the season, with at least 100 "We should've signed Teixeira" posts tagging along for the ride.

 

16) Victor Martinez will not cost the Red Sox team ERA half a run.

 

17) Last but not least, the Red Sox will make the playoffs via Wildcard with a 95-67 record, two games ahead of the Rays.

 

1. With the money spent on the big three and Dice-K, they damn well should be top three, but I'll say they they will be top 5

 

2. He better

 

3. Define solid defense and acceptable offense

 

4. No he won't

 

5. No they won't, not until Francona and Farrell are fired will the Sox start to hold runners on

 

6. Ortiz will be gone soon, until the Sox get a big bat Lowell sticks around

 

7. I hope they do, we won't make the playoffs if they don't

 

8. Beltre is a bust

 

9. Sure, w/e

 

10. The pen sucks, Bard is our best reliever other than Papelbon, and Paps hasn't been steady out there in 9 years. Oki is done, Delcarmen sucks, and Ramon Rameriz needs to get his confidence back

 

11. LOL

 

12. Agreed, I don't understand why he was brought in when there were stop gap solutions out there

 

13. True points

 

14. Drew probably will, but when the Sox need him the most he'll continue to look at strike threes and be unproductive in big situations

 

15. Yup

 

16. uh huh, his defense is awful but sure

 

17. Not if they don't get a big bat, get healthy, cut Ortiz, improve the pen, and get the starting pitching on track

[Gom]

You still don't know how it works, or what was the adjustment made. Your point is moot until you figure out how UZR works and how it measures fielders.

I have figured it out. It doesn't work. Not yet at least. You lack the mental acuity to realize when something works or doesn't. Personally, I would absolutely love it if one of the reasons you didn't sign Jason Bay was because of UZR.

Doesn't make sense because you don't know what you're talking about because you don't watch a lot of Red Sox games. I suggest you try and find an earlier game of the Red Sox from this year, and you'll notice that A) Sox pitchers don't use a pronounced slide step, and B ) They barely hold the runners back. This topic has been discussed Ad Nauseum, but most of the problems with holding opposing runners in check stems from the pitchers not holding them back. Huge leads + noodle arm= Tons of Stolen Bases.

True, I don't watch a lot of Red Sox games. That's why I was asking.

Because CERA is a useless stat. A good pitcher is a good pitcher, and will generally throw well to any catcher with some notable exceptions. Framing pitches has little to do with pitcher's efectiveness.

So are you basic ERA on the league average as opposed to this year, or against last year's ERA? In other words, what are you basing this one on?

 

I must say, it's pretty fearless.

[riverside sluggers]

Heres my fearless prediction. Daniel Bard can only go up from here. If somehow the Sox fall out of contention by trading deadline, they will field offers for Papelbon,... Just about everyone knows he will test the market after '11 season to get the richest deal he can

[Palodios]

Heres my fearless prediction. Daniel Bard can only go up from here. If somehow the Sox fall out of contention by trading deadline' date=' they will field offers for Papelbon,... Just about everyone knows he will test the market after '11 season to get the richest deal he can[/quote']

 

Not to mention that they want to keep him out of the hands of the Yankees, who are looking for a top notch replacement for Rivera.

[a700hitter]

Heres my fearless prediction. Daniel Bard can only go up from here. If somehow the Sox fall out of contention by trading deadline' date=' they will field offers for Papelbon,... Just about everyone knows he will test the market after '11 season to get the richest deal he can[/quote']I'm sure that they field offers for players all the time. Trading him is another story. That ain't gonna happen. If you want to make a fearless prediction, predict that he'll be traded, not that the Sox will get an offer for him. That's really difficult to prove, because teams lie about getting and making offers and having interest in players all the time. If he is in a different uni before the end of the year, that outcome can be proved with certainty. Man up and make a real prediction.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

Reality Prediction: Red Sox will come in third behind Yankees and Rays, with a record somewhere around 86-76.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

15) Over 4' date='000 panic posts will be made between now and July 1, with at least 300 'we should've signed Teixeira and the FO are idiots for letting him get away even though it isn't their fault that the Yankees can always outbid them but I don't like to listen' posts tagging along for the ride.[/b']

 

Fixed for accuracy.

[rhet]

2) Adrian Beltre will finish with 45+ XBH. And i will laugh out loud.

 

45?

That's all?

Julio Lugo had more than that his first year here when he cranked out a .643 OPS.

 

So your "fearless" prediction is that Beltre will equal Lugo, and then you'll laugh out loud?

(Unfortunately, so will the Yanks and Rays.)

[redsoxrules]

yeah I just caught that too

 

45 XBH isn't something to brag about

 

Every regular on the team last year had over 45XBH , except for Vtek who only played in 109 games and still managed to hit 38

[jacksonianmarch]

Missed that one. Beltre with 45 EBH? That would be a pretty big dropoff. Not really fearless. He had 35 last yr after missing 51 games and having his worst yr of his career. Even in his worst full Seattle season he had 56.

[Emmz]

Could have been a typo, guys.

[redsoxrules]

Possible .... maybe he meant 45 doubles

[Jasonbay44]

He put 45+. I assumed he meant he'll hit at the very least 45, but is predicting more.

[Emmz]

I'm guessing he meant besides HR, or maybe he meant 55, who really knows?

[Emmz]

OK help me out people cause I'm new here. Dipre is the resident homer' date=' right?[/quote']

 

Probably shouldn't make that post so soon, you're new. I believe he made this thread as a mockery of someone that made a Yankees version of this thread.

[Gom]

Probably shouldn't make that post so soon' date=' you're new. I believe he made this thread as a mockery of someone that made a Yankees version of this thread.[/quote']

You're an idiot. Go read what he wrote in his first post in the thread. What a moron.

[Emmz]

You're an idiot. Go read what he wrote in his first post in the thread. What a moron.

 

That was a little uncalled for, all I said was that it was supposed to be a mockery of another thread, that you made. Jesus, midol's in aisle 5.

[Dojji]

Could have been a typo' date=' guys.[/quote']

 

Could have been, but until he corrects it, that's what we have to go on.

[Emmz]

I agree, but it just doesn't seem like something that would be put in a fearless predictions thread, or even a brave predictions thread. That's a pretty safe prediction. Just me speculating.