With every HR Gonzalez hits...his price goes up.

[jacksonianmarch]

Right, but the question becomes, is a 5th starter in 2012 needed more than a 27 yrs old, 40HR, .900OPS, GG firstbaseman?

[Dipre]

Right' date=' but the question becomes, is a 5th starter in 2012 needed more than a 27 yrs old, 40HR, .900OPS, GG firstbaseman?[/quote']

 

But aren't the Sox supposed to NOT have the pieces for A-Gon? If it's for him, i say trade him.

[jacksonianmarch]

I guess the question becomes, which guy do you want to keep? Cause, the sox dont have an impact bat in AAA waiting in the wings and there isnt a big market big bat hitting the market in the offseason.

[TheMino007]

Well is SD going to want Bard, Buchholz, and Kelley all in the same deal for A-Gon?

[Dipre]

Well is SD going to want Bard' date=' Buchholz, and Kelley all in the same deal for A-Gon?[/quote']

 

That's a deal the Red Sox shouldn't make.

[diony]

Why would San Diego want Bard, when they have Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams?

[Dipre]

Why would San Diego want Bard' date=' when they have Luke Gregerson and Mike Adams?[/quote']

 

They're actually trying to trade BP pieces, as in Heath Bell.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dipre, theoretical question for you...

 

The Padres and Sox agree on the ancillary parts of the deal.

 

Anderson, Exposito, Doubront, and Kalish

 

but the sticking point is with the headliner. The Padres say, okay, we'll take either Buchholz or Kelly and you have a deal. Who do you part with?

[Dipre]

Dipre, theoretical question for you...

 

The Padres and Sox agree on the ancillary parts of the deal.

 

Anderson, Exposito, Doubront, and Kalish

 

but the sticking point is with the headliner. The Padres say, okay, we'll take either Buchholz or Kelly and you have a deal. Who do you part with?

 

Wow, that's an excellent question.

 

Because Bucholz is currently in the rotation and Stolmy Pimentel, while not the headliner that Kelly is, could wind up becoming quite a useful ML starter with some tweaking, i'd be much more inclined to dealing Kelly, but that's just me.

[jacksonianmarch]

I guarantee you that this will come up over the next 15 months or so before AdGon is eventually dealt.

[italstallianion]

I guarantee you that this will come up over the next 15 months or so before AdGon is eventually dealt.

 

 

OR until the Red Sox get another high profile bat, or until the Red Sox are winning consistently.

[Dipre]

I guarantee you that this will come up over the next 15 months or so before AdGon is eventually dealt.

 

I personally think that if Ortiz is indeed done, Adam Dunn will be manning the DH spot for the Sox come July.

[jacksonianmarch]

Even if the Red Sox are winning consistently, the lack of offensive depth and power is a major issue that will be exploited by good teams. They need a big bat.

[jacksonianmarch]

I personally think that if Ortiz is indeed done' date=' Adam Dunn will be manning the DH spot for the Sox come July.[/quote']

 

He very well could be. Dunn is about as powerful as any hitter in the game. And being a lefty in Fenway shouldnt hurt him too much, cause when he hits them, there is usually no doubt

[Palodios]

I'll put money on this one-- if they do trade for A-gon, its going to be a multi-team deal. Hoyer seems to know the farm system too well, and for both of them to get the value they want, there will very likely be a third party involved. So, even if the Padres don't need a closer type like Bard, or whatever piece they're dealing, they'll be able to use what they have.

[jacksonianmarch]

It might happen. Maybe the Sox flip Bard to someone who then flips an offensive prospect to SD and then the sox send Kelly to SD plus others.

[Dojji]

Well is SD going to want Bard' date=' Buchholz, and Kelley all in the same deal for A-Gon?[/quote']

 

NWIH the Padres trade Gonzalez for a package made up of entirely pitching. They're definitely going to want a hitter, no ifs ands or buts about that. The reason I don't think we have the pieces to get Adgon is I just don't think we have that guy -- the hitter who the Padres are going to want. The closest we have is probably Anderson, and even if he reclaims his value by comtinuing to kill the ball this year, they've got Kyle Blanks who will probably move back to 1B so it's not a prime solution from their perspective.

 

The team that comes down with Adgon is going to be a team that has a hole in 1B and has a premium pitching prospect, maybe two, plus a spare 3B, SS, C, 2B or OF bat that looks to be for real. Right now that describes at least 6 teams better than it describes the Red Sox -- and if I had to take a guess, the two strongest candidates for Adgon's new home would likely be the Mets and the Braves, with the Rangers coming in a strong third if they aren't sold on Smoak's glove.

 

Heck, in pure trade terms, the Rays are a better candidate for an Adgon deal than we are, they surely have the talent to make a deal, and they'll be shed of Crawford's and Pena's contracts in the coming offseason, giving them both incentive and money to try to deal for then sign the guy. And they're a good enough team that with his bat they would remain in contention if he came and stayed.

[Dipre]

NWIH the Padres trade Gonzalez for a package made up of entirely pitching. They're definitely going to want a hitter, no ifs ands or buts about that. The reason I don't think we have the pieces to get Adgon is I just don't think we have that guy -- the hitter who the Padres are going to want. The closest we have is probably Anderson, and even if he reclaims his value by comtinuing to kill the ball this year, they've got Kyle Blanks who will probably move back to 1B so it's not a prime solution from their perspective.

 

The team that comes down with Adgon is going to be a team that has a hole in 1B and has a premium pitching prospect, maybe two, plus a spare 3B, SS, C, 2B or OF bat that looks to be for real. Right now that describes at least 6 teams better than it describes the Red Sox -- and if I had to take a guess, the two strongest candidates for Adgon's new home would likely be the Mets and the Braves, with the Rangers coming in a strong third if they aren't sold on Smoak's glove.

 

Heck, in pure trade terms, the Rays are a better candidate for an Adgon deal than we are, they surely have the talent to make a deal, and they'll be shed of Crawford's and Pena's contracts in the coming offseason, giving them both incentive and money to try to deal for then sign the guy. And they're a good enough team that with his bat they would remain in contention if he came and stayed.

 

The Mets don't have the prospects, the Braves don't have the money, and already got burned in the Teixeira deal. The Rays have the prospects, but don't have a hole at 1B with Carlos Pena there, not to mention their offense doesn't have the need, because i think they lose Crawford but keep Pena.

[Dojji]

I think they lose both and go looking for another bat. Pena is likeliest to stay, but there's a number of teams that love his skillset and would be willing to pay for a long-ball hitter, including at least two other teams in his own division.

 

Crawford is going to be tempted to play the market because NYY is likely to be in the market for a left fielder and BOS may very well be as well dependng on how the season plays out (read: how Mike Cameron performs, whether JD's healthy, and what we can expect out of Ellsbury when he comes back from his first serious injury). I believe the Mets still also have a LF controversy. That's fertile ground for large contract bids for a guy who comes about as close as anyone in the game to being a 5 tool LF.

[jacksonianmarch]

The sox could deal away only pitching, but would need a third team in the deal

[Dipre]

I think they lose both and go looking for another bat. Pena is likeliest to stay' date=' Crawford is going to be tempted to play the market because NYY is likely to be in the market for a left fielder and BOS may very well be as well dependng on how the season plays out (read: how Mike Cameron performs, whether JD's healthy, and what we can expect out of Ellsbury when he comes back from his first serious injury).[/quote']

 

So they'd lose both bats, and go trade prospects for a bat that they'll keep for one year because it will probably command more money than both the bats they lost. Doesn't make sense if you ask me.

[Dojji]

If they lose both Crawford's and Pena's contracts, they'd have no trouble paying Adgon. Between the two, that's Teixeira money. If they remain in contention, and especially if they get that new stadium that they've been wanting, Tampa Bay can afford that.

[Dipre]

If they lose both Crawford's and Pena's contracts' date=' they'd have no trouble paying Adgon.[/quote']

 

The Rays have payroll constraints, and again, Gonzales will likely command more money than Pena and Crawford combined.

[Dojji]

He's going to command more than $19M/year.

 

Well, that's certainly possible, but it won't be a ton more. I don't think the Rays have too many other pending contract obligations that would really prevent them from going over those constraints in order to keep a consistent winner going. Winning is great for revenue after all.

[jacksonianmarch]

Guys, if Gardner reaches base .370+, then I dont think they are gonna go after Crawford. Why spend $15 mil per yr for a guy who gives you a little more than the guy you pay league minimum

[Dipre]

He's going to command more than $19M/year.

 

Well, that's certainly possible, but it won't be a ton more. I don't think the Rays have too many other pending contract obligations that would really prevent them from going over those constraints in order to keep a consistent winner going. Winning is great for revenue after all.

 

IMO the problem isn't necessarily the obligations they do have, but the obligations that they'll lose, plus the sheer amount of arbitration cases on really good players that they have for next year.

 

Crawford, Burrell, Pena, Soriano, Balfour and Randy Choate are all FA.

 

Garza, Upton, Bartlett, JP Howell, Lance Cormier, Andy Sonnastine and Matt Joyce are all due arb raises.

 

David Price and Evan Longoria are both due contract raises.

 

They only have 13 million comitted to next year's team currently (as per Cot's baseball contracts), but considering the amount of FA holes they'll need to fill, as well as arb and contract increases i don't believe it's realistic to expect the Rays to deal both prospects (who could help fill some of those holes) or spend 20-22 million a year (which would constitute maybe a third of their payroll, and much less both.

[jacksonianmarch]

Tampa is not going to sign AdGon, period. They have a TON of guys they need to pay arb to.

[Dipre]

Tampa is not going to sign AdGon' date=' period. They have a TON of guys they need to pay arb to.[/quote']

 

And the figure only increases for 2011. Between FA and arbitration, a contract of that caliber could easily tie both their hands behind their back.

[Dojji]

I think you're underestimating the Tampa market. We don't know how it'd respond to a consistent winner. I'll concede it would be hard for them to pay for Adgon though.

[jacksonianmarch]

How are we underestimating Tampa's market. They had a winner for the past 2 yrs and they cannot sell out aside from when they play NY or Boston. Tampa is in a market that is dominated by the Yankees. Think about how many generations were Yankee fans since the Yankees have ST there. Plus, their park sucks. Florida is a bad market for a MLB team. If Tampa wants to turn their franchise around financially, they'd move to Vegas or to North Carolina