GOM's Fearless Predictions

[Gom]

Ok..it's three games into the season, but I've been sick. Three games to start don't mean much..but here you go...and in no particular order:

 

1. The Yankees duo of Granderson and Nick Johnson will post better numbers than Damon and Matsui will this season.

 

2. Vazquez will put up better numbers than Lackey by season's end.

 

3. Without Molina catching Burnett, AJ's ERA will be closer to 5.00 than 4.00.

 

4. Arod will break 40 homeruns again.

 

5. Cano will put to rest the RISP debate with a solid season with runners on base.

 

6. At some point in the season, Nick Johnson will suffer a wrist injury scooping out ice cream that will place him on the DL.

 

7. Victor Martinez will put up great numbers at the plate, but the Red Sox ERA will suffer greatly with him, ala Posada. The grumblings should begin in the summer.

 

8. Beltre will be a good signing, while Cameron will turn into a bust.

 

9. Boston's defensive scheme will backfire. Building a team on defense instead of power when you play half your games in Fenway is a bad idea.

 

10. Manny will put up monster numbers and end up in one of the following cities by the All-Star Break: New York, Anaheim, Tampa, or the White Sox.

 

11. AGon will be traded to the Sox...the White ones.

 

12. Hughes will not be the young ace that a lot of people expect, at least not this year.

 

13. The Atlanta Braves will win the wild card, and be the team NO ONE wants to face in the National League playoffs.

 

14. The Cubs will fight it out with the Cardinals, with Pujols being just too much for the Cubs. Wait till next year..again.

 

15. Quietly, Milton Bradley will have a very good season in Seattle.

 

16. Texas will surprise most pundits and win the AL West.

 

17. The Mets will be a nightmare of a team and fight it out with the Nationals for last place in the National League East.

 

18. Kevin Youkilis won't get the MVP consideration he should be getting. A good player will get even better.

 

19. Somehow, some way, Mariano will find a way to keep chugging along at the levels we've come to expect from him.

 

20. This year's one game playoff will be Boston against Tampa. The winner? It depends on Carl Crawford. If he gets on base three times, the Red Sox lose. If he is kept off the bases, the Red Sox win the wild card. 1 or 2 times...pick'em.

[Lester82]

John Sterling will stop being gay.

 

Nevermind. Won't happen.

[Lester82]

Texas will surprise most pundits and win the AL Central.

 

That would be surprising, considering they don't play in the AL Central ...

 

Fearless!!

[msubulldogs21]

14. The Cubs will fight it out with the Cardinals' date=' with Pujols being just too much for the Cubs. Wait till next year..again.[/quote']

 

I'll be surprised if the Cubs come within single digits of the Cardinals. St. Louis should win that division by a lot.

[Gom]

That would be surprising, considering they don't play in the AL Central ...

 

Fearless!!

 

I LOVE IT!!! Fixed... :harhar:

[Teleporting Mike Cameron]

Great call on Vasquez prediction so far.

[Dipre]

There's going to be plenty of delicious tidbits to harrass Gom on his , well, being Gom from this thread. Specially the "Vasquez finishes with a better ERA than Lackey" one. Can't wait.

[VA Sox Fan]

Ok..it's three games into the season, but I've been sick. Three games to start don't mean much..but here you go...and in no particular order:

 

1. The Yankees duo of Granderson and Nick Johnson will post better numbers than Damon and Matsui will this season.

 

2. Vazquez will put up better numbers than Lackey by season's end.

 

3. Without Molina catching Burnett, AJ's ERA will be closer to 5.00 than 4.00.

 

4. Arod will break 40 homeruns again.

 

5. Cano will put to rest the RISP debate with a solid season with runners on base.

 

6. At some point in the season, Nick Johnson will suffer a wrist injury scooping out ice cream that will place him on the DL.

 

7. Victor Martinez will put up great numbers at the plate, but the Red Sox ERA will suffer greatly with him, ala Posada. The grumblings should begin in the summer.

 

8. Beltre will be a good signing, while Cameron will turn into a bust.

 

9. Boston's defensive scheme will backfire. Building a team on defense instead of power when you play half your games in Fenway is a bad idea.

 

10. Manny will put up monster numbers and end up in one of the following cities by the All-Star Break: New York, Anaheim, Tampa, or the White Sox.

 

11. AGon will be traded to the Sox...the White ones.

 

12. Hughes will not be the young ace that a lot of people expect, at least not this year.

 

13. The Atlanta Braves will win the wild card, and be the team NO ONE wants to face in the National League playoffs.

 

14. The Cubs will fight it out with the Cardinals, with Pujols being just too much for the Cubs. Wait till next year..again.

 

15. Quietly, Milton Bradley will have a very good season in Seattle.

 

16. Texas will surprise most pundits and win the AL West.

 

17. The Mets will be a nightmare of a team and fight it out with the Nationals for last place in the National League East.

 

18. Kevin Youkilis won't get the MVP consideration he should be getting. A good player will get even better.

 

19. Somehow, some way, Mariano will find a way to keep chugging along at the levels we've come to expect from him.

 

20. This year's one game playoff will be Boston against Tampa. The winner? It depends on Carl Crawford. If he gets on base three times, the Red Sox lose. If he is kept off the bases, the Red Sox win the wild card. 1 or 2 times...pick'em.

 

 

 

[VA Sox Fan]

There's going to be plenty of delicious tidbits to harrass Gom on his ' date=' well, being Gom from this thread. Specially the "Vasquez finishes with a better ERA than Lackey" one. Can't wait.[/quote']

 

[Gom]

Hey...it wouldn't be "Fearless" if it was routine.

 

I could have gone out there and predicted the Yankees would make the playoffs. What fun is that? Or that the Red Sox would finish ahead of Toronto.

 

That being said, you guys can give me grief over it, that's part of the reason why I did it. It's all good-natured bantering anyways.

[Emmz]

Might has well called this GOM turns into Jacko.

[italstallianion]

Ok..it's three games into the season, but I've been sick. Three games to start don't mean much..but here you go...and in no particular order:

 

1. The Yankees duo of Granderson and Nick Johnson will post better numbers than Damon and Matsui will this season.

 

2. Vazquez will put up better numbers than Lackey by season's end.

 

3. Without Molina catching Burnett, AJ's ERA will be closer to 5.00 than 4.00.

 

4. Arod will break 40 homeruns again.

 

5. Cano will put to rest the RISP debate with a solid season with runners on base.

 

6. At some point in the season, Nick Johnson will suffer a wrist injury scooping out ice cream that will place him on the DL.

 

7. Victor Martinez will put up great numbers at the plate, but the Red Sox ERA will suffer greatly with him, ala Posada. The grumblings should begin in the summer.

 

8. Beltre will be a good signing, while Cameron will turn into a bust.

 

9. Boston's defensive scheme will backfire. Building a team on defense instead of power when you play half your games in Fenway is a bad idea.

 

10. Manny will put up monster numbers and end up in one of the following cities by the All-Star Break: New York, Anaheim, Tampa, or the White Sox.

 

11. AGon will be traded to the Sox...the White ones.

 

12. Hughes will not be the young ace that a lot of people expect, at least not this year.

 

13. The Atlanta Braves will win the wild card, and be the team NO ONE wants to face in the National League playoffs.

 

14. The Cubs will fight it out with the Cardinals, with Pujols being just too much for the Cubs. Wait till next year..again.

 

15. Quietly, Milton Bradley will have a very good season in Seattle.

 

16. Texas will surprise most pundits and win the AL West.

 

17. The Mets will be a nightmare of a team and fight it out with the Nationals for last place in the National League East.

 

18. Kevin Youkilis won't get the MVP consideration he should be getting. A good player will get even better.

 

19. Somehow, some way, Mariano will find a way to keep chugging along at the levels we've come to expect from him.

 

20. This year's one game playoff will be Boston against Tampa. The winner? It depends on Carl Crawford. If he gets on base three times, the Red Sox lose. If he is kept off the bases, the Red Sox win the wild card. 1 or 2 times...pick'em.

 

 

I agree with #1, #3, #4, #6 (assuming that getting a wrist injury by jacking it counts), #8, #13, #19. And I'm almost sold on #17.

[yankees228]

For what's it's worth, no one expects Hughes to be an "ace" this year.

[italstallianion]

I think he'll be good, I just don't think he'd be great this year. He's got the potential though. It's also hard for a young guy to be the ace of a good AL East team.

[yankees228]

He certainly has potential. In my opinion, his future as a starter depends very heavily on the progression of his changeup.

[Emmz]

I don't think that anyone expects Matsui and Damon to out-perform them this year, the logic was, that they weren't going to outperform what Matsui and Damon did last year. I doubt that they will be able to do that.

[Dipre]

Interestingly enough, Gom's "Building for defense instead of power" comment is literally one of the dumbest things i've heard, and it contradicts an opinion he stated last night. (Fun banter, right?). Beltre, Cameron and Scutaro were all brought in because they fit the mold of "Fenway hitters" (Scutaro maybe because there was nothing else), but this team is literally built for Fenway, and he said that they would "score a lot of runs at home, but struggle on the road" which is possible, but now comes right back and says the team is not built for "power at Fenway".

 

My head hurts.

[Gom]

Interestingly enough' date=' Gom's "Building for defense instead of power" comment is literally one of the dumbest things i've heard, and it contradicts an opinion he stated [b']last night[/b]. (Fun banter, right?). Beltre, Cameron and Scutaro were all brought in because they fit the mold of "Fenway hitters" (Scutaro maybe because there was nothing else), but this team is literally built for Fenway, and he said that they would "score a lot of runs at home, but struggle on the road" which is possible, but now comes right back and says the team is not built for "power at Fenway".

 

My head hurts.

Explain Jason Bay.

 

Scutaro is not included in my critique. Signing Cameron and Beltre instead of Bay...ugh.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think that anyone expects Matsui and Damon to out-perform them this year' date=' the logic was, that they weren't going to outperform what Matsui and Damon did last year. I doubt that they will be able to do that.[/quote']

 

It depends on the player, as I have said all along. In the #2 hole, I will take OBP over OPS anyday of the week. And even with Johnson hitting .136, he has a .367OBP. I am pretty sure I can count on a .400OBP from Johnson through the season, which would outperform anything that Damon could do.

 

As with Granderson, he has shown a lot in his time with us thus far, albeit in a SSS. I don't expect him to have a near .900OPS like Matsui, but if the Yankees truly are taking the brakes off this kid, his 30+ SB potential would make him even more valuable than Matsui.

 

Overall, if Grandy can put up a .850-ish OPS with 30 steals, and Johnson can put up a .400+OBP, then they will easily make up for last yrs production loss with Damon and Matsui.

[Dipre]

Explain Jason Bay.

 

Scutaro is not included in my critique. Signing Cameron and Beltre instead of Bay...ugh.

 

Oh yeah, you obviously had access to his medical records. The Sox were bullshitting and there was really nothing wrong with his knees, they simply didn't wanna spend the money. But oh, wait, John Lackey.......Meaning it was Beltre, Cameron, and John Lackey instead of Bay.

[Gom]

Oh yeah' date=' you obviously had access to his medical records. The Sox were bullshitting and there was really nothing wrong with his knees, they simply didn't wanna spend the money. But oh, wait, John Lackey.......Meaning it was Beltre, Cameron, and [b']John Lackey[/b] instead of Bay.

 

Let's see...

Lackey signed for 82.5 million.

Cameron signed for 15.5 million

Beltre signed for 10 million.

 

However, Bay signed for 66 million.

 

Yet...you claim that the Red Sox signed Lackey, Cameron, and Beltre for the money it cost to sign Bay. How is this even remotely mathematically possible?

 

Can you explain this? ONLY WHEN USING DIPRE LOGIC!

 

I can't really buy the whole "don't trust his knees" when they sign Lackey, who has spent more time on the DL by far than Bay has. Honestly, I have no desire to make you look like a fool. Just realize that you're not making sense on this one.

[Dipre]

Let's see...

Lackey signed for 82.5 million.

Cameron signed for 15.5 million

Beltre signed for 10 million.

 

However, Bay signed for 66 million.

 

Yet...you claim that the Red Sox signed Lackey, Cameron, and Beltre for the money it cost to sign Bay. How is this even remotely mathematically possible?

 

Can you explain this? ONLY WHEN USING DIPRE LOGIC!

 

I can't really buy the whole "don't trust his knees" when they sign Lackey, who has spent more time on the DL by far than Bay has. Honestly, I have no desire to make you look like a fool. Just realize that you're not making sense on this one.

 

The strawman is Gom's bread and butter. Never claimed they signed them using the money allocated for Bay. Instead i claimed they signed all three of them, regardless of financial issues, which is your typical non--logical claim when addressing the Sox FO. "But but but.....they could spend more but they choose not to!!!111!!!".

 

If you could read, you'd have gotten it right away. Gom crashes and burns again.

[riverside sluggers]

Gom, the Sox offered 5 years/$82.5 million to Matt Holiday. When he turned it down, thats when they focused that money on John Lackey

[Dipre]

Gom' date=' the Sox offered 5 years/$82.5 million to Matt Holiday. When he turned it down, thats when they focused that money on John Lackey[/quote']

 

He's always running his mouth about the Sox being cheap, with his post, he inadvertedly tries to prove otherwise, tripping over his earlier stance in the process. I LOVE IT!

[Gom]

Gom' date=' the Sox offered 5 years/$82.5 million to Matt Holiday. When he turned it down, thats when they focused that money on John Lackey[/quote']

 

That's what I thought. However, there is no reason why they shouldn't have signed Lackey and Bay. It would have actually brought down their payroll this year from where it is now.

 

Would you really have Beltre and Cameron, or Bay and Lowell? Defense or offense? It's a choice. I just think they made the wrong one.

[Dipre]

That's what I thought. However, there is no reason why they shouldn't have signed Lackey and Bay. It would have actually brought down their payroll this year from where it is now.

 

Would you really have Beltre and Cameron, or Bay and Lowell? Defense or offense? It's a choice. I just think they made the wrong one.

 

Again, you're not "sold" on Bay's knee and shoulder issues. How many medical records did you have acces to?

[Gom]

Again' date=' you're not "sold" on Bay's knee and shoulder issues. How many medical records did you have acces to?[/quote']

 

None. However, the went out and signed a pitcher that is even more brittle in his career than Bay.

 

It's really easy to hide behind medical records, if you ask me. A lot of teams do it. Plus, with Ortiz on the obvious decline, he could have easily shifted to the DH spot in a year or two.

 

It comes down to whether you believe your front office or not. You do. That's your prerogative. I don't....and it's not just your front office. I think all front offices for all teams speak ******** 90% of the time. On the other hand, I tend to believe media outlets with their sources more often than not. In general, you discount them.

 

The reason for this from my end is I believe the media's job is to report the story, so they have no reason not to tell the truth [for the most part]. The FO of a team is concerned with their game plan, and will often use misdirection as a means to achieve it. That's really the main difference.

 

Back to Bay...the guy has played over 150 games in six of the last seven seasons..and that one he missed, he played in 145 games.

 

However, if you listened to the Red Sox, they'd have you soon believing that it would be a miracle if the guy made it through one season, let alone four. Then again, they went and gave a pitcher who has been on the DL a few times a longer contract [yes, I know about the injured clause, etc].

 

It smells fishy, if you ask me.

[Dipre]

None. However, the went out and signed a pitcher that is even more brittle in his career than Bay.

 

It's really easy to hide behind medical records, if you ask me. A lot of teams do it. Plus, with Ortiz on the obvious decline, he could have easily shifted to the DH spot in a year or two.

 

It comes down to whether you believe your front office or not. You do. That's your prerogative. I don't....and it's not just your front office. I think all front offices for all teams speak ******** 90% of the time. On the other hand, I tend to believe media outlets with their sources more often than not. In general, you discount them.

 

The reason for this from my end is I believe the media's job is to report the story, so they have no reason not to tell the truth [for the most part]. The FO of a team is concerned with their game plan, and will often use misdirection as a means to achieve it. That's really the main difference.

 

Back to Bay...the guy has played over 150 games in six of the last seven seasons..and that one he missed, he played in 145 games.

 

However, if you listened to the Red Sox, they'd have you soon believing that it would be a miracle if the guy made it through one season, let alone four. Then again, they went and gave a pitcher who has been on the DL a few times a longer contract [yes, I know about the injured clause, etc].

 

It smells fishy, if you ask me.

 

The brittle pitcher signed a contract with protection language for the team. Bay was offered the same type of contract but he declined the offer, if they're only "hiding" behind the medical records, why would they offer a contract with club protection?. The only reason for you not to believe the FO in this case is because of the use of "Gom logic" which translates to either no logic at all, or ignoring obvious facts.

[yankees228]

You don't believe front offices Gom, just like you didn't believe a word the Yankees said when they claimed Holliday, Bay, Lackey, and Damon were out of their price range. You're so caught up in not believing anyone that even when it's logical, you choose not to believe it.

 

However, in support of Gom's specific point, here's what I'll say. To the best of my knowledge the Red Sox were willing to sign Bay to a four year contract. The breaking point was the fifth year. Sure, that final year might have been because of his knee, but it's hard for me to buy that as a legitimate concern when they were willing to sign him up to a four year deal.

 

EDIT: I never read anything about protection in the proposed contract. Do you have a link?

[yankees228]

Also, it's kind of misleading to say that Lackey signed a contract that protects the Red Sox. It doesn't protect them at all through the end of 2014 (when the contract is set to expire). It only gives them a club option for 2015 at the league minimum, which might not even be useful if injury forces the clause to kick in. I'm sure you know all this, but I wanted to point it out because of the way you worded your post.