GOM's Fearless Predictions

[Dipre]

Also' date=' it's kind of misleading to say that Lackey signed a contract that protects the Red Sox. It doesn't protect them at all through the end of 2014 (when the contract is set to expire). It only gives them a club option for 2015 at the league minimum, which might not even be useful if injury forces the clause to kick in. I'm sure you know all this, but I wanted to point it out because of the way you worded your post.[/quote']

 

Not misleading. If an injury occurs for a pre-existing condition (said condition is Gom's defense when calling Lackey "brittle") it gives the Sox one year of Lackey at the league minimum. It's not an opt-out, but it's still protection of the club's investment, one way or the other.

[yankees228]

Not misleading. If an injury occurs for a pre-existing condition (said condition is Gom's defense when calling Lackey "brittle") it gives the Sox one year of Lackey at the league minimum. It's not an opt-out' date=' but it's still protection of the club's investment, one way or the other.[/quote']

 

I don't really see that as protection, because it doesn't have any influence on the money they're paying him through the first five years of the contract. I view it as more of a bonus, but we're really just debating semantics then. Either way, if he gets hurt, I would hardly say the language in the contract protects the Red Sox in any way.

[Dipre]

I don't really see that as protection' date=' because it doesn't have any influence on the money their paying him through the first five years of the contract. I view it as more of a bonus, but we're really just debating semantics then. Either way, if he gets hurt, I would hardly say the language in the contract protects the Red Sox's in any way.[/quote']

 

Instead of a 5 year, 82.5 million deal, it becomes a 6-year, 83 million deal.

 

AAV for 5 years:16.5 million.

 

AAV for 6 years: 13.3 million.

 

Again, it's not an opt-out, but it protects the club's investment one way or the other. To protect your investment, you don't necessarily have to be rid of the obligation. Having an option to recoup on what you spend is also consisdered "protection".

[yankees228]

I guess it all depends what he would do in that sixth year, and if that clause kicks in, there is a very good chance that he won't even be worth having in 2015.

 

We just see this differently.

 

Anyway, my main point was really about Bay.

[Dipre]

I guess it all depends what he would do in that sixth year, and if that clause kicks in, there is a very good chance that he won't even be worth having in 2015.

 

We just see this differently.

 

Anyway, my main point was really about Bay.

 

The contract they offered Bay had a club escape clause, not language like the Lackey contract. The way i see it (baseless conjecture alert) the player they really wanted was Holliday, but when he balked at their 5-year offer, they went quickly after Lackey to avoid letting the Yanks or Mets enter the fray.

[yankees228]

Fair enough. In that case, the knee problem would be a legitimate excuse.

[Gom]

How are my predictions looking so far?

[Dipre]

Ok..it's three games into the season' date=' but I've been sick. Three games to start don't mean much..but here you go...and in no particular order:[/quote']

 

1. The Yankees duo of Granderson and Nick Johnson will post better numbers than Damon and Matsui will this season.

Possible.

 

2. Vazquez will put up better numbers than Lackey by season's end.

LOL.

 

3. Without Molina catching Burnett, AJ's ERA will be closer to 5.00 than 4.00.

He's been pitching pretty well.

 

4. Arod will break 40 homeruns again.

It's A-Rod, so it's possible.

 

5. Cano will put to rest the RISP debate with a solid season with runners on base.

Looking good.

 

6. At some point in the season, Nick Johnson will suffer a wrist injury scooping out ice cream that will place him on the DL.

Expecting this.

 

7. Victor Martinez will put up great numbers at the plate, but the Red Sox ERA will suffer greatly with him, ala Posada. The grumblings should begin in the summer.

Wait and see. Not nearly a full run and not doing good at the plate.

 

8. Beltre will be a good signing, while Cameron will turn into a bust.

Too early.

 

9. Boston's defensive scheme will backfire. Building a team on defense instead of power when you play half your games in Fenway is a bad idea.

This was a ridiculous premise to begin with.

 

10. Manny will put up monster numbers and end up in one of the following cities by the All-Star Break: New York, Anaheim, Tampa, or the White Sox.

Not happening.

 

11. AGon will be traded to the Sox...the White ones.

Doubtful.

 

12. Hughes will not be the young ace that a lot of people expect, at least not this year.

Jury's out.

 

13. The Atlanta Braves will win the wild card, and be the team NO ONE wants to face in the National League playoffs.

It's possible.

 

14. The Cubs will fight it out with the Cardinals, with Pujols being just too much for the Cubs. Wait till next year..again.

Too early.

 

15. Quietly, Milton Bradley will have a very good season in Seattle.

Doesn't look good.

 

16. Texas will surprise most pundits and win the AL West.

Possible, but too early.

 

17. The Mets will be a nightmare of a team and fight it out with the Nationals for last place in the National League East.

They've started off pretty well, but so has Washington.

 

18. Kevin Youkilis won't get the MVP consideration he should be getting. A good player will get even better.

Too early.

 

19. Somehow, some way, Mariano will find a way to keep chugging along at the levels we've come to expect from him.

Of course.

 

20. This year's one game playoff will be Boston against Tampa. The winner? It depends on Carl Crawford. If he gets on base three times, the Red Sox lose. If he is kept off the bases, the Red Sox win the wild card. 1 or 2 times...pick'em.

Too early.

[Gom]

We shall see. Thanks for your response, in all seriousness. It's good to see that you understand the inherent humor and futility of such an exercise.