Please start Hermida over Cameron

[Dipre]

I guess the need to have the final word has overcome your ability to be reasonable.

 

No one here has said that the new metrics don't have their place in baseball. I'm a Darwinist and have spent almost my entire life in a laboratory and involved in the sciences.

Statistics are an essential component in almost all technical disciplines. I am not resistant to change or evolution. Christ, the evolution of mathematics and semiconductor technology (Spud stuff) have enabled all of us to be able to discuss this very topic.

 

In a discussion of a GAME, one which was devised to provide enjoyment both for those who play and those who watch, one can not, in all good conscience, discount subjectivity (observation) and an appreciation for athletics.

 

I was the one who said "It's 50-50". To which you responded "A century of baseball defies that comment".

 

Circular logic.

[Dojji]

In a discussion of a GAME, one which was devised to provide enjoyment both for those who play and those who watch, one can not, in all good conscience, discount subjectivity (observation) and an appreciation for athletics.

 

And who was? certainly not Dipre. Not even me, although I do think that a number of self-proclaimed experts here aren't as good at "seeing it with their eyes" as they think they are,.

[Dipre]

And who was? certainly not Dipre. Not even me' date=' although I do think that a number of self-proclaimed experts here aren't as good at "seeing it with their eyes" as they think they are,.[/quote']

 

Funny story.

 

Jose Mesa's brother, a renouned player developer here in the DR, usually frequents a liquor store around my house. Sometimes i used to go out and sit with him and a couple of friends of mine who used to play ball in summer programs, one Saturday night, one of them named Danny, asked him what the secret to scouting young players was, to which he replied:

 

"If i tried to get every kid that looked good on any given day a contract with a Major League balllub, i'd be living under a bridge right now, the trick is to now that one's eyes are quick to deceive, it's all in putting the time in to find out everything you can about a kid's abilities. No one knows everything, no matter how much time you have scouting and getting kids signed and getting the big bucks, if you don't do your due diligence, you're going to lose money".

 

Still etched into the back of my mind.

[a700hitter]

I think we should just leave this to Vinny Scully who has seen more than several lifetimes of games and who has had access to every imaginable statistic for over 50 years.

[PWNdroia]

Harmed?

 

Thats why they won a world serious with him, right?

 

One World Series. And JD Drew was not the reason. In fact, his 2007 season is his worse. Curt Schilling and Beckett's one ace-like year is what won us a World Series.

[Dipre]

The "Watch the games" contingent should try to convince PWNdroia of the error of his ways, since the "Long live the stats" contingent has miserably failed in doing so.

[PWNdroia]

The "Watch the games" contingent should try to convince PWNdroia of the error of his ways' date=' since the "Long live the stats" contingent has miserably failed in doing so.[/quote']

 

This makes no sense to me. I don't care what the stats say, OBP can't tell you everything. Speed and hacking should matter more. If you have guys who only know how to walk and can't hit, how do you get them home? It ends up being like smallball anyway.

 

I go for natural talent.

[Dipre]

This makes no sense to me. I don't care what the stats say, OBP can't tell you everything. Speed and hacking should matter more. If you have guys who only know how to walk and can't hit, how do you get them home? It ends up being like smallball anyway.

 

I go for natural talent.

 

If your method is so foolproof, why don't teams go for it?

 

On your model, Luis Castillo is a net asset.

[riverside sluggers]

One World Series. And JD Drew was not the reason. In fact' date=' his 2007 season is his worse. Curt Schilling and Beckett's one ace-like year is what won us a World Series.[/quote']

 

Yeah I guess his grand slam in the 1st inning of game 6, to give them quick 4-0 lead didnt help them at all

[PWNdroia]

Yeah I guess his grand slam in the 1st inning of game 6' date=' to give them quick 4-0 lead didnt help them at all[/quote']

 

Everyone uses this same game. What a coincidence. It's the ONLY decent game he has had in a Red Sox uni, other than the comeback against the Rays where he hit when we were down by a substantial amount of runs (we ended up losing that series anyway).

[riverside sluggers]

He also had a big homerun against K-Rod in the 08 ALDS

 

http://ballhype.com/story/drew_homers_off_k_rod_bosox_top_angels_ap/

[Dipre]

He also had a big homerun against K-Rod in the 08 ALCS

 

June 2008. August 2009.

[msubulldogs21]

PWNdroia, there is a book out there called "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You should read it sometime.

[Spudboy]

I was the one who said "It's 50-50". To which you responded "A century of baseball defies that comment".

 

Circular logic.

 

Very true. Which prompted my response. If you agree with someone than there is no rational reason to continue arguing with them.

 

"Listening is fundamental".

 

Comprehension, appears to be optional.

[Dipre]

50-50. That is all.

[Dipre]

PWNdroia' date=' there is a book out there called "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. You should read it sometime.[/quote']

 

Are you mad????

 

That book speaks of statistics!!!!

 

The f*** can those help him with?????

[Spudboy]

And who was? certainly not Dipre. Not even me' date=' although I do think that a number of self-proclaimed experts here aren't as good at "seeing it with their eyes" as they think they are,.[/quote']

 

Somehow aesthetics became athletics. Maybe I was distracted while posting. Certainly you know by now I can't spell!

 

My point was, if I can recall, baseball is much more than statistical analysis. It's kind of like surfing. A way of life. Take the time to enjoy the AESTHETICS of the game.

 

It would really suck if all you young folks missed the most meaningful aspects of the game.

[msubulldogs21]

It would really suck if all you young folks missed the most meaningful aspects of the game.

 

I love to kick back and just watch a game because I love baseball. I also enjoy having statistics available to back up what I otherwise wouldn't know by just watching. I think people need to realize that you don't have to be 100% in the "Just watch the games!" or "Stat nerds" camp. It's a mix of both to determine how valuable a player is, and baseball front offices across the league have come to realize this within the last 10 years. There's a reason the A's had some great teams (with such a low payroll) during the early part of the 2000s with Billy Beane running the show. Not many MLB teams were using the more valuable stats to measure players. They were stuck in the old days, and Billy Beane was able to get extremely good players for cheap because most other teams thought they were worthless.

 

If anyone hasn't read Moneyball, pick up a copy at a bookstore sometime soon. It's really a great read.

[Dipre]

I love to kick back and just watch a game because I love baseball. I also enjoy having statistics available to back up what I otherwise wouldn't know by just watching. I think people need to realize that you don't have to be 100% in the "Just watch the games!" or "Stat nerds" camp. It's a mix of both to determine how valuable a player is, and baseball front offices across the league have come to realize this within the last 10 years. There's a reason the A's had some great teams (with such a low payroll) during the early part of the 2000s with Billy Beane running the show. Not many MLB teams were using the more valuable stats to measure players. They were stuck in the old days, and Billy Beane was able to get extremely good players for cheap because most other teams thought they were worthless.

 

If anyone hasn't read Moneyball, pick up a copy at a bookstore sometime soon. It's really a great read.

 

If you were a woman, i would be buying a wedding ring right now.

[rhet]

I love to kick back and just watch a game because I love baseball. I also enjoy having statistics available to back up what I otherwise wouldn't know by just watching. I think people need to realize that you don't have to be 100% in the "Just watch the games!" or "Stat nerds" camp. It's a mix of both to determine how valuable a player is, and baseball front offices across the league have come to realize this within the last 10 years. There's a reason the A's had some great teams (with such a low payroll) during the early part of the 2000s with Billy Beane running the show. Not many MLB teams were using the more valuable stats to measure players. They were stuck in the old days, and Billy Beane was able to get extremely good players for cheap because most other teams thought they were worthless.

 

If anyone hasn't read Moneyball, pick up a copy at a bookstore sometime soon. It's really a great read.

 

Love the game. Love watching it.

But to be honest, it wouldn't be as interesting if stats weren't such a big part of it.

 

We'd be left arguing about how graceful Ellsbury's slide is or how sweaty Youkilis gets. No thanks.

[Dojji]

Love the game. Love watching it.

But to be honest, it wouldn't be as interesting if stats weren't such a big part of it.

 

We'd be left arguing about how graceful Ellsbury's slide is or how sweaty Youkilis gets. No thanks.

 

:thumbsup:

[PWNdroia]

Are you mad????

 

That book speaks of statistics!!!!

 

The f*** can those help him with?????

 

I read most of Moneyball, but not the whole thing (somehow I lost the book). It must be fate, because that book does not correlate with my theories. I didn't agree with most of it (but it was a fun read).

 

Ever seen Billy Beane lead his team to the World Series with this "Moneyball" OBP theory? Yeah, I thought so.

 

The Yankees won so many years because they not only have OBP, they have guys who can hack and hit with power. But in the end, it all comes down to pitching. OBP is clear representation of getting on base, but not for scoring runs.

[Dipre]

I read most of Moneyball, but not the whole thing (somehow I lost the book). It must be fate, because that book does not correlate with my theories. I didn't agree with most of it (but it was a fun read).

 

Ever seen Billy Beane lead his team to the World Series with this "Moneyball" OBP theory? Yeah, I thought so.

 

The Yankees won so many years because they not only have OBP, they have guys who can hack and hit with power. But in the end, it all comes down to pitching. OBP is clear representation of getting on base, but not for scoring runs.

 

The Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies have all assembled offenses that resemble the Moneyball model (albeit with adjustments) since the late 1990's.

 

They have combined to win 5 of the last 9 WS.

 

What the f*** are you talking about? You haven't read the book.

[PWNdroia]

The Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies have all assembled offenses that resemble the Moneyball model (albeit with adjustments) since the late 1990's.

 

They have combined to win 5 of the last 9 WS.

 

What the f*** are you talking about? You haven't read the book.

 

I haven't read the WHOLE book. But I've read most of it. And I don't agree with all of it.

 

The Phillies and Yankees didn't only base their teams on OBP guys (like the Red Sox). They had guys who could hit for power. The Red Sox did too in 2007, and especially in 2004. But now the Red Sox have no power to bring home the OBP guys.

 

You need a bit of everything. The Red Sox have no run producers, they onlty have the guys who get on base.

 

And like I said, Billy Beane's magic never helped his own team get too far.

 

One guy Theo loves- JD Drew. He's one of the worst hitters on this team. Can't hitr in a timely manner and generally gets on base, but no one will get him home because they can't hit, just get on base. They will come up empty eventually.

 

"Moneyball" is overrated. There are some great aspects to it (like paying less for decent players), but if you just really on OBP (and I mean JUST) you will come up empty. The Yankees and Phils did not JUST rely on OBP, and neither did the 04 and 07 Red Sox. Theo is changing this team for the worse. He's getting guys who can get on base, but can't hit guys home. We'll see the negative effects this year, unless he picks up a run producer somewhere.

[Dipre]

I haven't read the WHOLE book. But I've read most of it. And I don't agree with all of it.

 

Read all of it.

 

The Phillies and Yankees didn't only base their teams on OBP guys (like the Red Sox). They had guys who could hit for power. The Red Sox did too in 2007, and especially in 2004. But now the Red Sox have no power to bring home the OBP guys.

 

Fallacy.

 

Guys on the Red Sox who have enjoyed two or more 55+ XBH seasons:

 

Kevin Youkilis

Victor Martinez

Mike Cameron

Mike Lowell

David Ortiz

Adrian Beltre

Dustin Pedroia

J.D Drew.

 

Guys who have enjoyed multiple 20+ HR seasons:

 

Kevin Youkilis

Victor Martinez

Mike Cameron

Mike Lowell

David Ortiz

Adrian Beltre

JD Drew

 

This lineup has power from top to bottom. Stop making s*** up.

 

I omitted Varitek and Hall because, well, they're Varitek and Hall.

 

You need a bit of everything. The Red Sox have no run producers, they onlty have the guys who get on base.

 

Lol.

 

If anything, this team has too much power, but too little contact..

 

And define a "Run Producer". Last i checked, Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis were excellent "Run-Producers" with David Ortiz right behind them on the scale of "Run Production" after his "Two months of suck" hiatus was over.

 

And like I said, Billy Beane's magic never helped his own team get too far.

 

Because he was obviously the only one who used that model, amirite? You don't know what you're talking about.

 

["Moneyball" is overrated. There are some great aspects to it (like paying less for decent players), but if you just really on OBP (and I mean JUST) you will come up empty. The Yankees and Phils did not JUST rely on OBP, and neither did the 04 and 07 Red Sox. Theo is changing this team for the worse. He's getting guys who can get on base, but can't hit guys home. We'll see the negative effects this year, unless he picks up a run producer somewhere.

 

You didn't even read the whole book.

 

"Run producer". Lawl.

[TedWilliams101]

You have to look at money ball as economic efficiency. It's meant to be a guide to getting the most production out of your money, not how to build an unbeatable team. Not everyone has money to throw around (Yankees) so the smaller market teams need to spend wisely. The A's couldn't compete with the Yankees because of the huge gap in payroll, the Yankees were using the same approach, but with 3x the budget. The A's never intended to field teams superior to the Yankees, they wanted to field the best teams they could with the resources they had and be as competitive as possible, and they did that.

[Red Foreman]

I don't get what the big deal with the discussion about the place where he hits in the lineup is.

 

He is what he is, and i can actually find logic to Tito batting Drew 8th.

 

First off, last year's lineup was way too top-heavy, by batting Drew near the bottom, he slotted someone who could work the pitcher for the top of the lineup, and also help score and drive in runs from the bottom part of a lineup that was littered with inconsistency. He could have asked someone else, but didn't, because there are lots of big egos, and Drew doesn't seem like one of them. His disposition to bat where Tito wants him to when Tito so deems it neccesary is a plus, and speaks very well about the guy's character.

 

Just my opinion.

 

I'm with you, I just get the disdain.

[example1]

"Moneyball" is overrated. There are some great aspects to it (like paying less for decent players)' date=' but if you just really on OBP (and I mean JUST) you will come up empty. The Yankees and Phils did not JUST rely on OBP, and neither did the 04 and 07 Red Sox. Theo is changing this team for the worse. He's getting guys who can get on base, but can't hit guys home. We'll see the negative effects this year, unless he picks up a run producer somewhere.[/quote']

 

This is insanity man. Moneyball as a book was generally misunderstood, but it was paradigm shifting for the game--and not because it was wrong.

 

You are entitled to your own argument but not your own facts. The facts say that not making outs is the single most important thing that an offense can do across the board. Not making outs is most clearly represented by OBP because OBP is literally the percentage of PAs in which the hitter did not make a out. If the whole lineup doesn't make outs then, LOGICALLY, the players move their way around the bases.

 

Get it? There are 3 bases on the field (not counting home) and 9 hitters in the lineup. If 5 hitters hit and none of them make outs then logically some of them make their way to homeplate and the team will score. No HR required. Don't make outs = score.

 

The numbers absolutely don't back up what you say and a team with this many resources (financial and intellectual) would not stupidly go down the wrong path and accidentally win 90+ games year after year. They win because they build one of the best teams in baseball, and at the plate that is about plate discipline above all else. Sorry if you don't like it or if you don't understand it so you argue against it. Again, you're entitled to your own arguments but not your own facts.

[riverside sluggers]

I haven't read the WHOLE book. But I've read most of it. And I don't agree with all of it.

 

The Phillies and Yankees didn't only base their teams on OBP guys (like the Red Sox). They had guys who could hit for power. The Red Sox did too in 2007, and especially in 2004. But now the Red Sox have no power to bring home the OBP guys.

 

You need a bit of everything. The Red Sox have no run producers, they onlty have the guys who get on base.

 

And like I said, Billy Beane's magic never helped his own team get too far.

 

One guy Theo loves- JD Drew. He's one of the worst hitters on this team. Can't hitr in a timely manner and generally gets on base, but no one will get him home because they can't hit, just get on base. They will come up empty eventually.

 

"Moneyball" is overrated. There are some great aspects to it (like paying less for decent players), but if you just really on OBP (and I mean JUST) you will come up empty. The Yankees and Phils did not JUST rely on OBP, and neither did the 04 and 07 Red Sox. Theo is changing this team for the worse. He's getting guys who can get on base, but can't hit guys home. We'll see the negative effects this year, unless he picks up a run producer somewhere.

 

Alright, stat guru... Give us your projection of what each player (1-9) will do this season

 

1. Ellsbury lf

2. Pedroia 2b

3. Martinez c

4. Youkilis 1b

5. Ortiz dh

6. Beltre 3b

7. Drew rf

8. Cameron cf

9. Scutaro ss

[PWNdroia]

Read all of it.

 

 

 

Fallacy.

 

Guys on the Red Sox who have enjoyed two or more 55+ XBH seasons:

 

Kevin Youkilis

Victor Martinez

Mike Cameron

Mike Lowell

David Ortiz

Adrian Beltre

Dustin Pedroia

J.D Drew.

 

Guys who have enjoyed multiple 20+ HR seasons:

 

Kevin Youkilis

Victor Martinez

Mike Cameron

Mike Lowell

David Ortiz

Adrian Beltre

JD Drew

 

This lineup has power from top to bottom. Stop making s*** up.

 

I omitted Varitek and Hall because, well, they're Varitek and Hall.

 

 

 

Lol.

 

If anything, this team has too much power, but too little contact..

 

And define a "Run Producer". Last i checked, Victor Martinez and Kevin Youkilis were excellent "Run-Producers" with David Ortiz right behind them on the scale of "Run Production" after his "Two months of suck" hiatus was over.

 

 

 

Because he was obviously the only one who used that model, amirite? You don't know what you're talking about.

 

 

 

You didn't even read the whole book.

 

"Run producer". Lawl.

 

You can scratch Mike Lowell off your list, because I don't think he'll be playing much. Last year, Beltre hot 8 homeruns (8)! I'm looking for guys who hit 40 homeruns like Ryan Howard, Teixeira, and A-Rod, or just guys who can run the other team down. Besides Ellsbury, we have neither of these.

 

David Ortiz is done. Martinez is a run producer, I agree, I forgot about him. But you got Youkilis, Pedroia, and Martinez all together in the lineup and the only run producers.

 

I read 2/3 of the book. Would've finished it if I didn't lose it on vacation. I never lose anything either. It's fate I tell you! Like I said, if I finished it, I would still probably not agree with it. it's a fun read, but Beane has never won a championship...