2010 Yankees Spring Training Game Thread

[redsoxrules]

Jacko is hardly the only person not to trust defensive statistics. I like UZR/150' date=' but as Jacko said, not as an end all be all. Using what I see, compared to what the numbers say, I feel like the numbers misrepresent how Cano played defensively last season. I'm not saying it was fantastic, as there were areas where he struggled, [b']but I would probably put him around average[/b]. It's just an opinion, no doubt, but there are reasons why people don't throw themselves one hundred percent behind defensive statistics.

 

As for a previous topic, Nick Johnson has a bone bruise, and said he's playing on Sunday.

 

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/04/02/injury-updates-take-two/

 

So do I , and I would put Pedroia above average

hence , Pedroia is a better defender than Cano

[riverside sluggers]

Whats the over/under for games played by Nick Johnson this season?

[bsox0407]

Whats the over/under for games played by Nick Johnson this season?

 

123 for me. i think that he gets a lot off with Posada not going to catch a lot of games because of age because Jorge becomes the Dh when he doesn't catch

[yankees228]

As for Cano in general, I've made no secret on this forum that I think he's going to be a special player. Aside from his obvious talent, someone on this board has/had a signature that was a quote from Theo, which was something along the lines of, "Not making judgements about how much players care because of what they look like". While I'm guessing that was aimed at Drew, I think the same can be said for Cano. Sure, he has looked lazy, or worse things, at times. But, I thought that he cut down on those things last year, and he very well might be primed to begin to fulfill his potential.

 

I also agree with Jacko about Cano hitting fifth. I'm of the opinion that his RISP numbers from last year are merely a fluke, and I'm hoping for a huge year out of him in 2010.

[Gom]

I expected this from you BUT

 

Pedroia UZR 9.8 WAR 5.2

 

Cano UZR - 5.2 WAR 4.4

 

WAR is based upon offensive and defensive metrics. Where I like the offensive metrics, the defensive metrics are pretty much useless to me.

 

Franklin Gutierrez?

 

29.1 Runs above the average? Honestly, outside of God himself, I don't think it's even possible for a center fielder to save 29.1 runs in the outfield.

 

Remember...this is a defensive metric that states that Mark Teixeira, he of the Gold Glove [and I don't remember anyone bitching about it] was -3.7 according to UZR.

 

Torri Hunter? -1.4. Also won the Gold Glove in 2009.

Adam Jones? -4.7. Also won the Gold Glove in 2009.

 

Is the Gold Glove the most accurate metric? Nope. However, when you have a metric that lists three out of the eight Gold Glove winners in the AL last year [i can't find UZR for Mark Buerhle] as being BELOW AVERAGE IN RESPECT TO A TRIPLE-A CALLUP...well, it's useless. Anyone who believes otherwise is addled in my opinion.

 

Plus, I've seen the two players play live more than pretty much anyone here. My opinion stands.

 

Please try to understand the fallacies of the formulas you quote. UZR is a useless metric. I believe that WAR incorporates UZR, which then makes it also a useless metric. By this analysis, what you quote is uselss.

[yankees228]

Whats the over/under for games played by Nick Johnson this season?

 

I really don't look at Nick Johnson that way. He's not someone that is recovering from a long term injury, nor is he suffering from any kind of lasting issue. Additionally most of his injuries have been freakish, and considering that he's not going to be seeing much (or any) time in the field, I expect a full season out of him (with the exceptions of minor injuries and rest, like most players).

 

He could get hurt, without a doubt, but I don't see a reason to expect it. I expect to get met with disagreement, but I feel this is a logical stance.

[Gom]

I really don't look at Nick Johnson that way. He's not someone that is recovering from a long term injury, nor is he suffering from any kind of lasting issue. Additionally most of his injuries have been freakish, and considering that he's not going to be seeing much (or any) time in the field, I expect a full season out of him (with the exceptions of minor injuries and rest, like most players).

 

He could get hurt, without a doubt, but I don't see a reason to expect it. I expect to get met with disagreement, but I feel this is a logical stance.

 

The major problem I have with this guy is his wrist. He seems to have trouble with it. However, you are right in saying he had freakish injuries. I remember seeing that broken leg on TV. Horrific.

[Gom]

Gom, Cano has better range and arm, Pedroia has better hands and makes the more routine plays. Cano's big issue, IMO, is that he'll make the spectacular play, then mess up on a routine one.

 

Also, Cano in the #5 hole right now looks like a good move, we'll see how it turns out. He is swinging the bat with conviction thus far

 

I think Pedroia has better range. I've seen him get to balls I believe Cano would have missed. I agree with the rest of the points.

[yankees228]

The major problem I have with this guy is his wrist. He seems to have trouble with it. However' date=' you are right in saying he had freakish injuries. I remember seeing that broken leg on TV. Horrific.[/quote']

 

What I'm going on is that there hasn't been a single mention of his wrist by anyone this spring, whether it be him, the Yankees' staff, or anyone else.

[redsoxrules]

WAR is based upon offensive and defensive metrics. Where I like the offensive metrics, the defensive metrics are pretty much useless to me.

 

Franklin Gutierrez?

 

29.1 Runs above the average? Honestly, outside of God himself, I don't think it's even possible for a center fielder to save 29.1 runs in the outfield.

 

Remember...this is a defensive metric that states that Mark Teixeira, he of the Gold Glove [and I don't remember anyone bitching about it] was -3.7 according to UZR.

 

Torri Hunter? -1.4. Also won the Gold Glove in 2009.

Adam Jones? -4.7. Also won the Gold Glove in 2009.

 

Is the Gold Glove the most accurate metric? Nope. However, when you have a metric that lists three out of the eight Gold Glove winners in the AL last year [i can't find UZR for Mark Buerhle] as being BELOW AVERAGE IN RESPECT TO A TRIPLE-A CALLUP...well, it's useless. Anyone who believes otherwise is addled in my opinion.

 

Plus, I've seen the two players play live more than pretty much anyone here. My opinion stands.

 

Please try to understand the fallacies of the formulas you quote. UZR is a useless metric. I believe that WAR incorporates UZR, which then makes it also a useless metric. By this analysis, what you quote is uselss.

 

Franklin Gutierrez is that good

Tori Hunter isnt the defender he was in his early days in Minny

adam Jones did drop off compared to the year before

Texeira was solid at 1b last year but not what we're custom to see from him

[Spudboy]

I didn't ask this question to start s***. I was looking for some input from someone who I figured had seen both players many times. I've seen Pedroia hundreds of times. I've seen Cano maybe thirty times.

 

I asked Jacko to asses both players. I figured he could add his $.02 worth using his observations and any stats. And by the way, while I'm becoming more comfortable with UZR, I still believe it is a flawed metric. Those that are big proponents of UZR believe that it takes the subjectivity out of defensive assessment. However, the mode of acquisition of data used to yield UZR is very subjective. There in lies (sp) the hole is UZR. Several people are watching the play and makeing notes. Where is the actual physical data gathered and how was it gathered? In my opinion, unless the field is fitted with lasers and detectors, most UZR data is just a bunch of subjective numbers.

 

Jump all over me if you want to. Spend 20+ years in a laboratory or in a scientific/technical discipline and maybe you'll understand my view.

 

I'd still love to hear what ORS would have to say on the matter. Why? He has a degree in an engineering discipline and is really into baseball.

[Spudboy]

Jacko is hardly the only person not to trust defensive statistics. I like UZR/150, but as Jacko said, not as an end all be all. Using what I see, compared to what the numbers say, I feel like the numbers misrepresent how Cano played defensively last season. I'm not saying it was fantastic, as there were areas where he struggled, but I would probably put him around average. It's just an opinion, no doubt, but there are reasons why people don't throw themselves one hundred percent behind defensive statistics.

 

As for a previous topic, Nick Johnson has a bone bruise, and said he's playing on Sunday.

 

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2010/04/02/injury-updates-take-two/

 

Excellent post.

[yankees228]

Appreciate the compliment, and I think many people share your opinion. I actually remember talk on this forum (by ORS, I think) that someday players will be fitted with those lasers and detectors you mentioned in order to better evaluate defensive ability.

[Keeper]

100% agree that UZR is a flawed metric.

[Gom]

Franklin Gutierrez is that good

Tori Hunter isnt the defender he was in his early days in Minny

adam Jones did drop off compared to the year before

Texeira was solid at 1b last year but not what we're custom to see from him

 

No he's not. I've watched him as well. He's a great defensive CF, but it's just not realistic that he can save that many runs. You're saying a CF can save more runs than a SS or 2B?

 

Irrespective...you're missing the point. These players were considered NEGATIVE. They were WORSE than the league average. Get it? The metric is useless, and you quote it as fact...which is par for the course for a lot of posters here.

 

Back to the original argument...I don't deny that Cano is a step below Pedroia defensively. Your metric [sic] agrees to that. However, offensively, Cano is better.

 

According to fangraphs, Pedroia is worth about 15.8 runs. Cano is worth 23.9. I'm not even sure how these numbers are calculated, but it seems to be in the ballpark. I give the nod to Pedroia, maybe 6 or 7 runs, defensively. That puts Cano slightly ahead of Pedroia...which is what I've said all along.

 

Of course, if you wish to stick to a metric that has Tex, Adam Jones, and Torii Hunter as below average defensively, and Gutierriez as the most important defensive player in the game irrespective of position, that is your prerogative. I just doubt that anyone will take your point seriously. I don't.

[Cocos Disciples]

Let's definitely have the UZR argument again. It was fun last time too!

[yankees228]

Let's definitely have the UZR argument again. It was fun last time too!

 

I sense an ever-so-slight tinge of sarcasm.

[Spudboy]

:lol:

 

Can't we all just watch the games?

 

 

Sorry Rodney.

[yankees228]

I really want to make a thread that has the same title as this one, minus "Spring Training" haha. Almost that time.

[Dipre]

I'd still love to hear what ORS would have to say on the matter. Why? He has a degree in an engineering discipline and is really into baseball.

 

ORS has stated his opinion on UZR multiple times. Flawed statistic, but more reliable than anything else out there. Besides, i think you have an aspect of the actual UZR formula wrong. Not trying to be a dick here, so no boxing gloves.

[Spudboy]

ORS has stated his opinion on UZR multiple times. Flawed statistic' date=' but more reliable than anything else out there. Besides, i think you have an aspect of the actual UZR formula wrong. Not trying to be a dick here, so no boxing gloves.[/quote']

 

Lol.

 

The voice of Talksox has spoken.

[Dipre]

Lol.

 

The voice of Talksox has spoken.

 

Ah, sarcasm. Usable when the fact that one's opinion about something is incorrect/incomplete and has been called out on it.

 

"Lol".

 

When accounting for hit ball "zones" and their corresponding RF or "Range Factor", a computer program is used.

 

If you check out the UZR primer posted on fangraphs.com, you'll notice:

 

For each zone, the computer keeps track of the following on a league-wide (for a particular year) basis:

The number of hits in that zone.

The average run value of a hit in that zone (using traditional lwts hit values).

The number of outs recorded in that zone for each fielding position.

 

At the same time, the computer keeps track of the total number of fielding errors for each fielding position, but not for each zone individually. Actually it compiles fielding errors in two separate categories: One, ROE errors, are fielding errors that result in an ROE. All other errors, such as on a hit, or a second error on an ROE, are called non-ROE errors.

For example, here is the 2002 league-wide data for zone 56 (the area between the third baseman and the SS):

 

Zone 56 Hits Outs Run Value per Hit

All Plays 1055 1419 .472

SS 294

3B 1125

For each player at each fielding position (e.g. Rey Sanchez at SS is one entity and Rey Sanchez at 2B is another entity), and for each zone, the computer also compiles the following information:

The number of hits in that zone while the player was on the field at that position.

The number of outs recorded by that player, at that position, in that zone.

ROE and non-ROE fielding errors are compiled separately for each player, but again, not by individual zones.

 

For example, the 2002 data in zone 56 for Mike Bordick, while playing SS, looks like this:

 

Zone 56 Hits Outs

Bordick 79 18

 

The data "a bunch of people taking notes at games" compile, is just used as a comparison for the data that the video-analysis program they use provide, which divides the field into 74 areas (only 68 used for UZR actual purposes).

 

That's the true "voice of reason". The people that created the statistic and compile the data.

[jacksonianmarch]

Whats the over/under for games played by Nick Johnson this season?

 

120 works, but that's gonna be with the caveat of "if healthy". He is gonna get a lot of time off this yr as will Posada. Which is why guys like Winn and Thames will see a lot more time that your standard 4th and 5th OFers

[Spudboy]

Ah, sarcasm. Usable when the fact that one's opinion about something is incorrect/incomplete and has been called out on it.

 

"Lol".

 

When accounting for hit ball "zones" and their corresponding RF or "Range Factor", a computer program is used.

 

If you check out the UZR primer posted on fangraphs.com, you'll notice:

 

For each zone, the computer keeps track of the following on a league-wide (for a particular year) basis:

The number of hits in that zone.

The average run value of a hit in that zone (using traditional lwts hit values).

The number of outs recorded in that zone for each fielding position.

 

At the same time, the computer keeps track of the total number of fielding errors for each fielding position, but not for each zone individually. Actually it compiles fielding errors in two separate categories: One, ROE errors, are fielding errors that result in an ROE. All other errors, such as on a hit, or a second error on an ROE, are called non-ROE errors.

For example, here is the 2002 league-wide data for zone 56 (the area between the third baseman and the SS):

 

Zone 56 Hits Outs Run Value per Hit

All Plays 1055 1419 .472

SS 294

3B 1125

For each player at each fielding position (e.g. Rey Sanchez at SS is one entity and Rey Sanchez at 2B is another entity), and for each zone, the computer also compiles the following information:

The number of hits in that zone while the player was on the field at that position.

The number of outs recorded by that player, at that position, in that zone.

ROE and non-ROE fielding errors are compiled separately for each player, but again, not by individual zones.

 

For example, the 2002 data in zone 56 for Mike Bordick, while playing SS, looks like this:

 

Zone 56 Hits Outs

Bordick 79 18

 

The data "a bunch of people taking notes at games" compile, is just used as a comparison for the data that the video-analysis program they use provide, which divides the field into 74 areas (only 68 used for UZR actual purposes).

 

That's the true "voice of reason". The people that created the statistic and compile the data.

 

Wonderful post.

 

To bad it does not address the fundamental flaw in UZR. Which I stated above.

[diony]

Yankees vs Yankees Future Stars was on YES today. Heathcott looked awfully good in CF.

[jacksonianmarch]

Heathcott looks like the real deal. He was just abusing all of the pitchers in Yankee camp. And boy is he fast and good on D

[Dipre]

Wonderful post.

 

To bad it does not address the fundamental flaw in UZR. Which I stated above.

 

You said it wasn't objective because "it was people taking notes" which is incorrect.

 

UZR has two flaws, number one is the overvaluing of park factors and range for SS and number two is the potential for fluctuation due to sample size for 1B. Therefore why people call it "unreliable" when dealing with SS or 1B, but not with other positions, if they understand the statistic, that is.