Yankees 2010 season predictions

[jacksonianmarch]

You know, Imperial kinda prompted me to put this out there, so why not. The 2010 season is upon us and aside from some position battles in spring training the roster seems pretty set.

 

Projected Roster

1. Posada C

2. Cervelli C

3. Teixeira 1B

4. Cano 2B

5. Jeter SS

6. Rodriguez 3B

7. Pena SS

8. Gardner OF

9. Granderson OF

10. Swisher OF

11. Winn OF

12. Thames OF

13. Johnson DH

14. Sabathia SP

15. Burnett SP

16. Pettitte SP

17. Vazquez SP

18. Chamberlain SP

19. Hughes SU

20. Rivera CL

21. Robertson MR

22. Marte MR

23. Aceves MR

24. Gaudin LR

25. Melancon MR

 

I'll break it down position by position later in the thread, but for right now, here is the prediction. The Yankee offense will score 900+ runs for a second season in a row. Their offense will carry them through rough starts by the starters and allow them to win games that they had no right winning in the first place. They should also be able to battle good pitchers and absolutely work over the mediocre to bad ones. The big changes to the offense being three-fold. Brett Gardner replaces Melky at the bottom of the lineup, which actually has the probability of being an upgrade due to Gardner's eye and lightning speed. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui leave and we add Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson. Johnson in the #2 hole will be an improvement over Damon solely based on OBP as long as he can remain healthy. But as a full time DH, that shouldnt be too much to ask. The big story will be Granderson. Coming off an off season where he still hit 30 homers, the big question will be which Grandy will be showing up? The one that swooned towards the back half of 2009 and couldnt hit lefties? Or the dynamic hitter from 2007-2008 who went for the quad 20 (20 homers, 20 triples, 20 doubles, 20SBs). If he can regain some of that spark, he'll be a dynamic player and might supplant Johnson in the #2 hole. Regardless, even if they perform exactly like they did last yr, it's only a mild downgrade overall. But if they improve upon their down seasons, they have a chance to be major upgrades in youth and dynamic capability.

 

The rotation will be vastly improved. Joba will be in season 2 of his starting pitching transformation which should lend to a bit more consistency and a bit more length. Javy Vazquez replaces the shitstorm we had in the #5 hole from last yr after Wang went down. Adding a perennial 200K and 200IP starter to replace a slot in the rotation that had a near 6ERA and averaged under 5IP is absolutely huge. He could pitch like he did with the CWS and still be immensely valuable. But last season shows that Javy may have turned a corner, so we shall see. Pettitte in the rotation might end up being a great addition or a critical weakness. He revamped himself last yr improving his K rates and proving to be ever durable. The question is, will he be able to consistently get outs as the velocity tumbles further or will be falter. We'll see. I actually expect improvements over Burnett and Sabathia. Sabathia started off horribly in April then put up CY numbers after that, including the playoffs where he was magnificent. Burnett had runs where he looked like a CY winner and then runs where you had to scratch your head. Overall a mediocre season for him, will a second yr in pinstripes lend more consistency to this guy a la his time in Toronto. Regardless, this rotation is loaded to bear. 4 strikeout pitchers and 4 pitchers who have shown the ability to consistently reach the 200IP mark (well, the last 2 yrs with Burnett, but the comment remains for the rest). Couple that with the offense and this team should be able to sustain significant winning streaks against some of the weaker teams in the bigs. And some teams really did get weaker.

 

On to the pen, last yr for one month they were record setting in their badness. After a complete overhaul, their youth matured into a pretty dominant bullpen. Anchored by old reliable, Mariano Rivera, what time has taken away in velocity, he has added to with baseball IQ, improved location and even more bite. Everyone wonders when he'll fall, but after putting up another career season for the future HOFer, predicting his demise might be a fool's job. The good thing is, he has help coming into a season for once. Phil Hughes should be his primary assistant after a successful campaign as the most dominant regular season setup man in 2009. He was absolutely dominant in that role and should slide back in for 2010. Adding to the riches in the back end, Damaso Marte looks to be back to his typical form after a very strong playoff run. If he's healthy, NY will be able to feature a 1-2-3 punch at the back end of the pen that few teams will have. To complement the crew is Alfredo Aceves, the guy who throws middle of the road stuff out there but gets outs and doesnt make stupid mistakes. He's the swing guy. David Robertson will try to work his way into the setup role after a very promising 2009 campaign. And the new guy, Mark Melancon should be ready to start ascending to the back of the pen as well (he's my sleeper pick for future Yankee closer). Overall, this pen should be primed to be one of the best and the great part about it is that its almost entirely home grown (Marte was an original Yankee prospect who we traded for Enrique Wilson).

 

So, after a quick rundown, I think the Yankees run away with the division and probably ease off the brake at the end to make the finish respectable. My guess is anywhere from 98-103 wins.

 

As for the playoffs, its anyone's game and it really depends on how the rotation gels together. If Vazquez shows up and moves into a highly respected and counted upon role, then this rotation could go up against anyone's. The hope is that we wont have to go to the 3 man rotation again for the playoffs. But we definitely will be back in the playoffs in 2010.

[26 to 6]

I don't see them carrying both Russo and Pena, although stranger things have happened. Where's Nick Johnson though? I think you replace Russo with Johnson and your projection is dead-on!

 

Also, no second lefty?

[jacksonianmarch]

Wow, yeah, I forgot him. Remove Russo, implant Johnson, lol.

[jacksonianmarch]

I was struggling with that idea of the lack of a second lefty, but hear me out. Boone Logan is the most likely to take that spot since both Dunn and Coke are gone. I just think they will give Melancon every opportunity to get his s*** straight at the big league level since his ceiling is much, much higher than Logan's.

[26 to 6]

I agree, I just don't know if Melancon should start the season in the bigs or start in AAA and build on his success there before coming up, rather than breaking camp with the team and possibly struggling and then being sent down to straighten his head out. Idk though, unless Logan or one of the other lefties in camp "wows" us then I wouldn't have too much of a problem with this.

[BSN07]

You know, Imperial kinda prompted me to put this out there, so why not. The 2010 season is upon us and aside from some position battles in spring training the roster seems pretty set.

 

Projected Roster

1. Posada C

2. Cervelli C

3. Teixeira 1B

4. Cano 2B

5. Jeter SS

6. Rodriguez 3B

7. Pena SS

8. Gardner OF

9. Granderson OF

10. Swisher OF

11. Winn OF

12. Thames OF

13. Johnson DH

14. Sabathia SP

15. Burnett SP

16. Pettitte SP

17. Vazquez SP

18. Chamberlain SP

19. Hughes SU

20. Rivera CL

21. Robertson MR

22. Marte MR

23. Aceves MR

24. Gaudin LR

25. Melancon MR

 

I'll break it down position by position later in the thread, but for right now, here is the prediction. The Yankee offense will score 900+ runs for a second season in a row. Their offense will carry them through rough starts by the starters and allow them to win games that they had no right winning in the first place. They should also be able to battle good pitchers and absolutely work over the mediocre to bad ones. The big changes to the offense being three-fold. Brett Gardner replaces Melky at the bottom of the lineup, which actually has the probability of being an upgrade due to Gardner's eye and lightning speed. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui leave and we add Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson. Johnson in the #2 hole will be an improvement over Damon solely based on OBP as long as he can remain healthy. But as a full time DH, that shouldnt be too much to ask. The big story will be Granderson. Coming off an off season where he still hit 30 homers, the big question will be which Grandy will be showing up? The one that swooned towards the back half of 2009 and couldnt hit lefties? Or the dynamic hitter from 2007-2008 who went for the quad 20 (20 homers, 20 triples, 20 doubles, 20SBs). If he can regain some of that spark, he'll be a dynamic player and might supplant Johnson in the #2 hole. Regardless, even if they perform exactly like they did last yr, it's only a mild downgrade overall. But if they improve upon their down seasons, they have a chance to be major upgrades in youth and dynamic capability.

 

The rotation will be vastly improved. Joba will be in season 2 of his starting pitching transformation which should lend to a bit more consistency and a bit more length. Javy Vazquez replaces the shitstorm we had in the #5 hole from last yr after Wang went down. Adding a perennial 200K and 200IP starter to replace a slot in the rotation that had a near 6ERA and averaged under 5IP is absolutely huge. He could pitch like he did with the CWS and still be immensely valuable. But last season shows that Javy may have turned a corner, so we shall see. Pettitte in the rotation might end up being a great addition or a critical weakness. He revamped himself last yr improving his K rates and proving to be ever durable. The question is, will he be able to consistently get outs as the velocity tumbles further or will be falter. We'll see. I actually expect improvements over Burnett and Sabathia. Sabathia started off horribly in April then put up CY numbers after that, including the playoffs where he was magnificent. Burnett had runs where he looked like a CY winner and then runs where you had to scratch your head. Overall a mediocre season for him, will a second yr in pinstripes lend more consistency to this guy a la his time in Toronto. Regardless, this rotation is loaded to bear. 4 strikeout pitchers and 4 pitchers who have shown the ability to consistently reach the 200IP mark (well, the last 2 yrs with Burnett, but the comment remains for the rest). Couple that with the offense and this team should be able to sustain significant winning streaks against some of the weaker teams in the bigs. And some teams really did get weaker.

 

On to the pen, last yr for one month they were record setting in their badness. After a complete overhaul, their youth matured into a pretty dominant bullpen. Anchored by old reliable, Mariano Rivera, what time has taken away in velocity, he has added to with baseball IQ, improved location and even more bite. Everyone wonders when he'll fall, but after putting up another career season for the future HOFer, predicting his demise might be a fool's job. The good thing is, he has help coming into a season for once. Phil Hughes should be his primary assistant after a successful campaign as the most dominant regular season setup man in 2009. He was absolutely dominant in that role and should slide back in for 2010. Adding to the riches in the back end, Damaso Marte looks to be back to his typical form after a very strong playoff run. If he's healthy, NY will be able to feature a 1-2-3 punch at the back end of the pen that few teams will have. To complement the crew is Alfredo Aceves, the guy who throws middle of the road stuff out there but gets outs and doesnt make stupid mistakes. He's the swing guy. David Robertson will try to work his way into the setup role after a very promising 2009 campaign. And the new guy, Mark Melancon should be ready to start ascending to the back of the pen as well (he's my sleeper pick for future Yankee closer). Overall, this pen should be primed to be one of the best and the great part about it is that its almost entirely home grown (Marte was an original Yankee prospect who we traded for Enrique Wilson).

 

So, after a quick rundown, I think the Yankees run away with the division and probably ease off the brake at the end to make the finish respectable. My guess is anywhere from 98-103 wins.

 

As for the playoffs, its anyone's game and it really depends on how the rotation gels together. If Vazquez shows up and moves into a highly respected and counted upon role, then this rotation could go up against anyone's. The hope is that we wont have to go to the 3 man rotation again for the playoffs. But we definitely will be back in the playoffs in 2010.

 

 

Not trying to belittle your post or anything. It seems fair IMO. I just really laughed hard when I read that part.

[Imperial59]

You know, Imperial kinda prompted me to put this out there, so why not. The 2010 season is upon us and aside from some position battles in spring training the roster seems pretty set.

 

Projected Roster

1. Posada C

2. Cervelli C

3. Teixeira 1B

4. Cano 2B

5. Jeter SS

6. Rodriguez 3B

7. Pena SS

8. Gardner OF

9. Granderson OF

10. Swisher OF

11. Winn OF

12. Thames OF

13. Johnson DH

14. Sabathia SP

15. Burnett SP

16. Pettitte SP

17. Vazquez SP

18. Chamberlain SP

19. Hughes SU

20. Rivera CL

21. Robertson MR

22. Marte MR

23. Aceves MR

24. Gaudin LR

25. Melancon MR

 

I'll break it down position by position later in the thread, but for right now, here is the prediction. The Yankee offense will score 900+ runs for a second season in a row. Their offense will carry them through rough starts by the starters and allow them to win games that they had no right winning in the first place. They should also be able to battle good pitchers and absolutely work over the mediocre to bad ones. The big changes to the offense being three-fold. Brett Gardner replaces Melky at the bottom of the lineup, which actually has the probability of being an upgrade due to Gardner's eye and lightning speed. Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui leave and we add Nick Johnson and Curtis Granderson. Johnson in the #2 hole will be an improvement over Damon solely based on OBP as long as he can remain healthy. But as a full time DH, that shouldnt be too much to ask. The big story will be Granderson. Coming off an off season where he still hit 30 homers, the big question will be which Grandy will be showing up? The one that swooned towards the back half of 2009 and couldnt hit lefties? Or the dynamic hitter from 2007-2008 who went for the quad 20 (20 homers, 20 triples, 20 doubles, 20SBs). If he can regain some of that spark, he'll be a dynamic player and might supplant Johnson in the #2 hole. Regardless, even if they perform exactly like they did last yr, it's only a mild downgrade overall. But if they improve upon their down seasons, they have a chance to be major upgrades in youth and dynamic capability.

 

The rotation will be vastly improved. Joba will be in season 2 of his starting pitching transformation which should lend to a bit more consistency and a bit more length. Javy Vazquez replaces the shitstorm we had in the #5 hole from last yr after Wang went down. Adding a perennial 200K and 200IP starter to replace a slot in the rotation that had a near 6ERA and averaged under 5IP is absolutely huge. He could pitch like he did with the CWS and still be immensely valuable. But last season shows that Javy may have turned a corner, so we shall see. Pettitte in the rotation might end up being a great addition or a critical weakness. He revamped himself last yr improving his K rates and proving to be ever durable. The question is, will he be able to consistently get outs as the velocity tumbles further or will be falter. We'll see. I actually expect improvements over Burnett and Sabathia. Sabathia started off horribly in April then put up CY numbers after that, including the playoffs where he was magnificent. Burnett had runs where he looked like a CY winner and then runs where you had to scratch your head. Overall a mediocre season for him, will a second yr in pinstripes lend more consistency to this guy a la his time in Toronto. Regardless, this rotation is loaded to bear. 4 strikeout pitchers and 4 pitchers who have shown the ability to consistently reach the 200IP mark (well, the last 2 yrs with Burnett, but the comment remains for the rest). Couple that with the offense and this team should be able to sustain significant winning streaks against some of the weaker teams in the bigs. And some teams really did get weaker.

 

On to the pen, last yr for one month they were record setting in their badness. After a complete overhaul, their youth matured into a pretty dominant bullpen. Anchored by old reliable, Mariano Rivera, what time has taken away in velocity, he has added to with baseball IQ, improved location and even more bite. Everyone wonders when he'll fall, but after putting up another career season for the future HOFer, predicting his demise might be a fool's job. The good thing is, he has help coming into a season for once. Phil Hughes should be his primary assistant after a successful campaign as the most dominant regular season setup man in 2009. He was absolutely dominant in that role and should slide back in for 2010. Adding to the riches in the back end, Damaso Marte looks to be back to his typical form after a very strong playoff run. If he's healthy, NY will be able to feature a 1-2-3 punch at the back end of the pen that few teams will have. To complement the crew is Alfredo Aceves, the guy who throws middle of the road stuff out there but gets outs and doesnt make stupid mistakes. He's the swing guy. David Robertson will try to work his way into the setup role after a very promising 2009 campaign. And the new guy, Mark Melancon should be ready to start ascending to the back of the pen as well (he's my sleeper pick for future Yankee closer). Overall, this pen should be primed to be one of the best and the great part about it is that its almost entirely home grown (Marte was an original Yankee prospect who we traded for Enrique Wilson).

 

So, after a quick rundown, I think the Yankees run away with the division and probably ease off the brake at the end to make the finish respectable. My guess is anywhere from 98-103 wins.

 

As for the playoffs, its anyone's game and it really depends on how the rotation gels together. If Vazquez shows up and moves into a highly respected and counted upon role, then this rotation could go up against anyone's. The hope is that we wont have to go to the 3 man rotation again for the playoffs. But we definitely will be back in the playoffs in 2010.

 

So basically, the Yankees miraculously improve in every aspect of their game and run away with the division. Thanks for being so objective :thumbsup:

[yankees228]

 

Not trying to belittle your post or anything. It seems fair IMO. I just really laughed hard when I read that part.

 

Johnson will bat second. I'm curious as to why that's comical.

 

EDIT: Oops lol. Just re-read it...

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, the bullpen is on my mind here, especially with the resigning of Gaudin and Mitre and the addition of Chan Ho Park. It sounds like, barring a collapse from the Korean, Park is gonna get a shot at a 25 man roster spot. So, here are the contenders for those final spots. Also, the likelihood is that we break camp with 12 pitchers, eventually whittling it down to 11 after the first month of the yr. So that leaves 7 relief slots.

 

1. Closer- Mariano Rivera- old reliable. He had one of his best seasons last yr at age 39. He still shows 90+ mph velocity, but now it is pinpoint in location and with more break than he had as a youngster. He will regress eventually, and Girardi was pretty careful with him last season. But I still see a vintage Mo season out of the old guard as long as Girardi doesnt burn him early.

 

2. Set-up- Phil Hughes- absolutely dominant last season as a setup man who kinda got unnerved in the post season. He used his deceptive delivery to make his 93-98 mph fastball look even faster. His addition of a cutter and a 2 seamer allowed him to give different looks on the fastball to lefties and righties which made him a lot more dangerous. Last season, he used his spike curveball as his secondary pitch while only throwing his changeup 1% of the time. Girardi and Eiland have spoken to him about incorporating the changeup back into his game, not really focusing on 2010, but for his eventual return to the rotation in 2011. I think Hughes has a bit less dominant a season out of the pen (hard to continue that level of dominance) but still think he ranks up there with the best setup men in the game.

 

3. Setup- Damaso Marte- talk about vindication, Damaso Marte was the only guy left from the 2008 trade that brought him and Nady to the Bronx in exchange for 4 prospects. Well, Marte promptly got hurt in 2008 and at the beginning of 2009 and was pretty much an afterthought until re-appearing as a reliable reliever in the post-season. Marte showed the velocity he was lacking in ST from 2009, which made his re-emergence that much more important. I think Girardi will be handling him with kid gloves since he's fragile and he's under contract for another season. I do think he'll be the lefty portion of the setup tandem with Hughes, operating the 7th or 8th innings depending on which inning has more lefties. He should improve upon his horrid, injury filled two seasons in NY with a good one this yr.

 

4. Middle Relief: Chan Ho Park- I know Dipre has been touting Park's re-emergence as a potent arm out of the pen, but really, he's had one solid season out there. If he can stay on the mound (he is injury prone) and is used appropriately as more of the righty specialist, he could be useful. If he is pressed into later inning duties, then I think we're in trouble.

 

5. Middle Relief: David Robertson- with Park being a question and Marte's health always a mystery, David Robertson has the most to gain this season out of the pen. Especially since Hughes seems destined for the rotation in 2011, Robertson could propel himself into primary setup duty talk for 2011. He is a small guy with a deceptive motion. He throws low 90s primarily, but the motion makes it look a lot harder and he possesses a spike curve that is just filthy when it's on. And, if his post ASB numbers are any indication, he's only getting better. People forget, that he doesnt turn 25 until mid April. He's still a young kid. Post ASB #s- 21IP 20H 7ER 7BB 29K. He is a strikeout machine who should see his overall usage improve with his improvement in command. I think this kid will be doing big things in the Bronx this season.

 

6. Swing: Alfredo Aceves: As I said in another post, this guy is the glue of the pitching staff. He is always ready to throw and will throw multiple innings if asked. As a reliever, he had a sub 1 WHIP last season while putting together double digit wins and a very respectable K rate. He is a strike throwing machine as well. He should continue to pitch well this yr, as I expect his BABIP to correct but his HRs to dip a bit

 

On to the final spot in the pen. The above 6 guys seem to be locks to start out in the Bronx. But here are other guys available

 

Chad Gaudin- pitched well enough as our #5 starter to keep us in games, but is really a mediocre starter at best. His control limits his effectiveness as a reliever, but he could be a useful swing guy, especially early on. Thing is, Aceves is already entrenched in that role, so that could lead Gaudin to be dealt or released should he be beaten out by others on this list.

 

Sergio Mitre- Mitre is post TJS, so he was given some slack. Now in his second yr, he should be counted on to be better than last yr, but that isnt saying much. On a team hurting for pitching, Mitre could be a valuable swing guy should he prove healthy. But he shouldnt be in much demand in NY and I can almost guarantee that barring major injuries in ST, he'll be on another team come April

 

Boone Logan- loogy reliever who is good vs lefties and a BP machine against righties. His stuff is good which kinda makes you scratch your head. But he will get a shot to be the second lefty, although I think he ends up in the minors

 

Mark Melancon- my dark horse for that last spot, probably gets kicked to AAA with the Park signing. He's got it all. The stuff, the makeup, all he needs is the experience. Looks like he's blocked for one more yr. Eventually, he'll be a back end arm for us, but doesnt look like it will be this season

 

Thats about it. I think this bullpen has its problem areas, especially when you talk about the 3 pitchers over the age of 35, but there is good redundancy in needed areas and there should be a pretty good progression at the back of the pen. Assuming good health, this pen should rank up there with the top pens in the game. Especially with Hughes and Mo back for another round. But a lot of their success will be measured by how well Aceves does in yr 2 and if Robertson can take that next step. Regardless, I think the pen comes out of ST as a non-problem area, unlike last yr

[Imperial59]

Well, the bullpen is on my mind here, especially with the resigning of Gaudin and Mitre and the addition of Chan Ho Park. It sounds like, barring a collapse from the Korean, Park is gonna get a shot at a 25 man roster spot. So, here are the contenders for those final spots. Also, the likelihood is that we break camp with 12 pitchers, eventually whittling it down to 11 after the first month of the yr. So that leaves 7 relief slots.

 

1. Closer- Mariano Rivera- old reliable. He had one of his best seasons last yr at age 39. He still shows 90+ mph velocity, but now it is pinpoint in location and with more break than he had as a youngster. He will regress eventually, and Girardi was pretty careful with him last season. But I still see a vintage Mo season out of the old guard as long as Girardi doesnt burn him early.

 

2. Set-up- Phil Hughes- absolutely dominant last season as a setup man who kinda got unnerved in the post season. He used his deceptive delivery to make his 93-98 mph fastball look even faster. His addition of a cutter and a 2 seamer allowed him to give different looks on the fastball to lefties and righties which made him a lot more dangerous. Last season, he used his spike curveball as his secondary pitch while only throwing his changeup 1% of the time. Girardi and Eiland have spoken to him about incorporating the changeup back into his game, not really focusing on 2010, but for his eventual return to the rotation in 2011. I think Hughes has a bit less dominant a season out of the pen (hard to continue that level of dominance) but still think he ranks up there with the best setup men in the game.

 

3. Setup- Damaso Marte- talk about vindication, Damaso Marte was the only guy left from the 2008 trade that brought him and Nady to the Bronx in exchange for 4 prospects. Well, Marte promptly got hurt in 2008 and at the beginning of 2009 and was pretty much an afterthought until re-appearing as a reliable reliever in the post-season. Marte showed the velocity he was lacking in ST from 2009, which made his re-emergence that much more important. I think Girardi will be handling him with kid gloves since he's fragile and he's under contract for another season. I do think he'll be the lefty portion of the setup tandem with Hughes, operating the 7th or 8th innings depending on which inning has more lefties. He should improve upon his horrid, injury filled two seasons in NY with a good one this yr.

 

4. Middle Relief: Chan Ho Park- I know Dipre has been touting Park's re-emergence as a potent arm out of the pen, but really, he's had one solid season out there. If he can stay on the mound (he is injury prone) and is used appropriately as more of the righty specialist, he could be useful. If he is pressed into later inning duties, then I think we're in trouble.

 

5. Middle Relief: David Robertson- with Park being a question and Marte's health always a mystery, David Robertson has the most to gain this season out of the pen. Especially since Hughes seems destined for the rotation in 2011, Robertson could propel himself into primary setup duty talk for 2011. He is a small guy with a deceptive motion. He throws low 90s primarily, but the motion makes it look a lot harder and he possesses a spike curve that is just filthy when it's on. And, if his post ASB numbers are any indication, he's only getting better. People forget, that he doesnt turn 25 until mid April. He's still a young kid. Post ASB #s- 21IP 20H 7ER 7BB 29K. He is a strikeout machine who should see his overall usage improve with his improvement in command. I think this kid will be doing big things in the Bronx this season.

 

6. Swing: Alfredo Aceves: As I said in another post, this guy is the glue of the pitching staff. He is always ready to throw and will throw multiple innings if asked. As a reliever, he had a sub 1 WHIP last season while putting together double digit wins and a very respectable K rate. He is a strike throwing machine as well. He should continue to pitch well this yr, as I expect his BABIP to correct but his HRs to dip a bit

 

On to the final spot in the pen. The above 6 guys seem to be locks to start out in the Bronx. But here are other guys available

 

Chad Gaudin- pitched well enough as our #5 starter to keep us in games, but is really a mediocre starter at best. His control limits his effectiveness as a reliever, but he could be a useful swing guy, especially early on. Thing is, Aceves is already entrenched in that role, so that could lead Gaudin to be dealt or released should he be beaten out by others on this list.

 

Sergio Mitre- Mitre is post TJS, so he was given some slack. Now in his second yr, he should be counted on to be better than last yr, but that isnt saying much. On a team hurting for pitching, Mitre could be a valuable swing guy should he prove healthy. But he shouldnt be in much demand in NY and I can almost guarantee that barring major injuries in ST, he'll be on another team come April

 

Boone Logan- loogy reliever who is good vs lefties and a BP machine against righties. His stuff is good which kinda makes you scratch your head. But he will get a shot to be the second lefty, although I think he ends up in the minors

 

Mark Melancon- my dark horse for that last spot, probably gets kicked to AAA with the Park signing. He's got it all. The stuff, the makeup, all he needs is the experience. Looks like he's blocked for one more yr. Eventually, he'll be a back end arm for us, but doesnt look like it will be this season

 

Thats about it. I think this bullpen has its problem areas, especially when you talk about the 3 pitchers over the age of 35, but there is good redundancy in needed areas and there should be a pretty good progression at the back of the pen. Assuming good health, this pen should rank up there with the top pens in the game. Especially with Hughes and Mo back for another round. But a lot of their success will be measured by how well Aceves does in yr 2 and if Robertson can take that next step. Regardless, I think the pen comes out of ST as a non-problem area, unlike last yr

 

The bullpen probably won't be the same force it was last year, there are plenty of candidates for regression.

 

Mo - Aside from the fact that he'll be 40, he had a .263 BABIP and 91.8 LOB%. His 1.76 ERA suggest he was as dominant as ever, but his 2.89 FIP (the worst of the decade) suggests otherwise.

 

Hughes - He had a .250 BABIP as a reliever last year, and even if he didn't, as you said it's unlikely that he repeats the kind of performance that he had last year out of the pen.

 

Park - He didn't allow a single home run last year. He's unlikely to continue that lucky streak in the most home run friendly park in baseball. His xFIP suggests he should have had an ERA of 4 as a reliever, not the 2.57 ERA that he actually had.

 

Aceves - Another guy with a dramatically low BABIP (.260).

[Dipre]

Park's total xFIp was 4.02, and his reliever numbers were significantly better than his rotation numbers. How can his reliever xFIP logically be in the 4.00s?

[Imperial59]

Park's total xFIp was 4.02' date=' and his reliever numbers were significantly better than his rotation numbers. How can his reliever xFIP logically be in the 4.00s?[/quote']

 

"Even accounting for a league average HR/FB rate in 2009, Park’s xFIP was still 4.02. There’s a chance, though, that Park continues to keep fly balls in the park at a below league average rate. It won’t be zero, but if Park can continue what he did in 2009, he might keep that HR/FB low."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chan-ho-park-and-the-amazing-unsustainable-home-run-rate/

 

I guess they were using his total xFIP, not his xFIP as a reliever as they made it sound like. Still, his FIP as a reliever was much higher and he's not going to go a full year as a reliever without giving up a home run in the new Yankee Stadium. The general basis of the post still stands.

[jacksonianmarch]

The bullpen probably won't be the same force it was last year, there are plenty of candidates for regression.

 

Mo - Aside from the fact that he'll be 40, he had a .263 BABIP and 91.8 LOB%. His 1.76 ERA suggest he was as dominant as ever, but his 2.89 FIP (the worst of the decade) suggests otherwise.

 

Hughes - He had a .250 BABIP as a reliever last year, and even if he didn't, as you said it's unlikely that he repeats the kind of performance that he had last year out of the pen.

 

Park - He didn't allow a single home run last year. He's unlikely to continue that lucky streak in the most home run friendly park in baseball. His xFIP suggests he should have had an ERA of 4 as a reliever, not the 2.57 ERA that he actually had.

 

Aceves - Another guy with a dramatically low BABIP (.260).

 

People have been thinking Mariano would regress for 5 seasons now, always touting the BABIP or some other stat that predicted regression. He just keeps beating the odds. I know he cannot do it forever, but he's showing no signs of letting up

 

Agreed on Hughes and Park. In terms of Aceves, I think his HR rate is a bit inflated. In 2008, he gave up 14HR in 170IP between the minors and majors, for a rate of 0.7/9IP. In 2009, he gave up 10HR in 84IP 1.1/9IP. Hence why a guy with a sub 1 WHIP had a mid 3's ERA. I bet his HR rate trickles down to maybe 0.8 or so and the BABIP comes up, this allowing his ERA to remain in the same area.

[jacksonianmarch]

"Even accounting for a league average HR/FB rate in 2009, Park’s xFIP was still 4.02. There’s a chance, though, that Park continues to keep fly balls in the park at a below league average rate. It won’t be zero, but if Park can continue what he did in 2009, he might keep that HR/FB low."

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/chan-ho-park-and-the-amazing-unsustainable-home-run-rate/

 

I guess they were using his total xFIP, not his xFIP as a reliever as they made it sound like. Still, his FIP as a reliever was much higher and he's not going to go a full year as a reliever without giving up a home run in the new Yankee Stadium. The general basis of the post still stands.

 

Depends on how he's used. Facing mostly righties, he's a buzzsaw. If Girardi has him facing a lot of lefties, then he'll be batting practice

[jacksonianmarch]

Catcher's position:

 

Starting Catcher- Jorge Posada- Posada has been a stalwart for this team for a decade, but came into 2009 as a questionmark after missing 110 games with shoulder surgery. He responded by putting up his 4th best yr of his career and an .885OPS. The concern, though, is that the lower body is starting to wear on him as he missed 3 weeks with a hamstring injury. Afterwards, Girardi handled him with kid gloves. He assigned a personal catcher to AJ Burnett which guaranteed Posada a day off every 5 days and also sat him sporadically on other days as well. At 111 games, Posada posted his second lowest total since 1998 (2008 being the lowest due to shoulder surgery). Overall, it looks like Posada's bat hasnt skipped a beat, but his health seems to be doing the old age decline. He turns 39 yrs old in August, so a slip should probably be expected, although I think the slip will be in health rather than major offensive decline. If Girardi plays it safe with Jorge for this season, then I think another solid offensive yr is probable. If Girardi doesnt rest him appropriately, then his returns will diminish.

 

The backup this yr is Francisco Cervelli, a 24 yr old catcher from Venezuela. In the minors, he was a minimal power, good eye kind of hitter who held his own offensively. In his short stint in the bigs last yr, he was more of a slasher/singles hitter without much patience. As he gets more comfortable, I expect his walk totals to reappear. At his best, Cervelli reminds me of a Jason Kendall lite. He wont hit .300+ like Kendall did, but he'll walk his fair share and be a pest at the plate. The name of Cervelli's game is defense. He has a very accurate, above average arm and very good footwork and agility. He'll replace Jose Molina's defense admirably and should perform better offensively, making every 5th day + seem a bit nice with his bat in the lineup.

 

Down the pipe: Jesus Montero is the biggest name coming down the pipe. He's one of the best bats the minors has seen in years, and he's just turned 20. He should make his debut at some point in 2010, but I doubt it has much effect on the catchers position this yr.

 

Prediction: Posada + Cervelli + maybe Montero should still give the Yankees elite offensive production from a primarily defensive position. Decidedly below average defense from Posada will be interchanged with the plus defense of Cervelli about 30% of the time, making the tradeoff a bit less painful. And if Posada gets hurt, we have another elite bat in waiting in AAA, just itching for the chance to hit at the big league level. This is the best position for the Yankee minor league system, and decidedly the best farm system catchers depth in baseball. This might be the yr where we see that depth getting realized, although I would bet more on 2011.

[Imperial59]

People have been thinking Mariano would regress for 5 seasons now, always touting the BABIP or some other stat that predicted regression. He just keeps beating the odds. I know he cannot do it forever, but he's showing no signs of letting up

 

Agreed on Hughes and Park. In terms of Aceves, I think his HR rate is a bit inflated. In 2008, he gave up 14HR in 170IP between the minors and majors, for a rate of 0.7/9IP. In 2009, he gave up 10HR in 84IP 1.1/9IP. Hence why a guy with a sub 1 WHIP had a mid 3's ERA. I bet his HR rate trickles down to maybe 0.8 or so and the BABIP comes up, this allowing his ERA to remain in the same area.

 

I don't see any objective reason to believe his HR rates will drop. He's a fly ball pitcher (45.7% of the balls hit off him are fly balls) with a below average HR/FB rate (9.1%). It shouldn't be surprising that he's giving up a home run every 9 innings against major league hitters considering he gave up 0.7 home runs per 9 innings against minor league players who were typically many years younger than him. Remember, he started his minor league career at age 25 after pitching in the Mexican League.

 

If anything the numbers suggest his home run rate might increase because of his below average HR/FB rate and his low BABIP. If he had a .300 BABIP last year he would have had to face a lot more batters in the same amount of innings.

[jacksonianmarch]

HRs arent included in BABIP

[Imperial59]

HRs arent included in BABIP

 

I'm well aware. I said that if he had a normal BABIP he would have had to face a lot more batters in the same amount of innings that he pitched last year. And it's logical that the more batters you face, the more likely you are to give up a home run. The more home runs you give up in the same amount of innings, the higher your home run rate.

 

You follow?

[jacksonianmarch]

BABIP also is highly dependent on the kind of pitcher you are. A guy who throws a lot of grounders will have a higher BABIP since balls on the ground have a higher chance of being hits than flyballs. A flyball pitcher will likely have a lower BABIP since balls hit harder will be finding the seats more often than the other guys. Regardless, I think his ERA remains about the same while his peripherals worsen just a little.

[Imperial59]

BABIP also is highly dependent on the kind of pitcher you are. A guy who throws a lot of grounders will have a higher BABIP since balls on the ground have a higher chance of being hits than flyballs. A flyball pitcher will likely have a lower BABIP since balls hit harder will be finding the seats more often than the other guys. Regardless' date=' I think his ERA remains about the same while his peripherals worsen just a little.[/quote']

 

I think we both agree that his peripherals will worsen. I think it will effect his ERA and you don't. To each his own.

[jacksonianmarch]

I just think that an ERA of 3.35 from the pen and a WHIP of 0.97 just dont seem to mix. Get what I mean? Typically a sub 1 WHIP comes with a low 2's or even sub 2 ERA. Looking at his game log, there was a 3 game stretch where his ERA was significantly altered. He allowed 9ER in 6IP in 3 mid August appearances. He allowed 2 homers in that 3 game span, with runners on no less. So, this is probably the reason for his abberent ERA when considering his peripherals. Regardless, the point stands, if his WHIP comes up in to the 1.1-1.2 range, he should still have a low to mid 3's ERA.

[Imperial59]

I just think that an ERA of 3.35 from the pen and a WHIP of 0.97 just dont seem to mix. Get what I mean? Typically a sub 1 WHIP comes with a low 2's or even sub 2 ERA. Looking at his game log' date=' there was a 3 game stretch where his ERA was significantly altered. He allowed 9ER in 6IP in 3 mid August appearances. He allowed 2 homers in that 3 game span, with runners on no less. So, this is probably the reason for his abberent ERA when considering his peripherals. Regardless, the point stands, if his WHIP comes up in to the 1.1-1.2 range, he should still have a low to mid 3's ERA.[/quote']

 

His WHIP isn't very telling of his ability considering he had a .260 BABIP. I'm not going to touch the cherry picking game.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yankees Infield

 

The production from the 4 Yankee infielders is unmatched. Starting with Mark Teixeira, who had an MVP caliber season, this quartet will post ridiculous numbers for another few season. Tex had a season in line with his recent performance with 39 homers, 122RBI and a mid .900s OPS. At 29 yr old, there is no reason to suspect that he cannot repeat that.

 

Moving on to 2b, Robinson Cano has been described as an enigma. Well, he really isnt that enigmatic when you break down his numbers. He's been a major leaguer for 5 full seasons now. He's posted an .840+OPS in 3 of those seasons. His BA has been at or above .297 in all but one season. And in that one delinquent season, after the ASB he put up a standard .300+BA .800+OPS line. So, aside for one half season, he's been pretty damn consistent. Also, he just turned 27 yrs old, so he's entering the prime of his career. Accompanied by the opening of the new launching pad, Cano has seen his power numbers improve to career highs in HR (25), 2B (48), and IsoPower (.200). Surprisingly, he did hit 11 of his 25 homers on the road, so it points more towards and overall improvement in power, which is to be expected. I have been predicting for quite some time that he'd eventually develop patience, but that seems to be unchanged in his approach. Regardless, as a mid .800s OPS 2b who is developing above average power, you kinda gotta be grateful for what you have. I bet he posts a similar season with a bit lower BA but more homeruns.

 

At SS, the old guard put up another banner yr. The captain, Derek Jeter, returns for what could be, but most likely wont be his final season in pinstripes. Jeter had a bit of a rejuvenation in power, speed and defense in 2009 and should be a good bet for continuing success for 2010. Although, I am not sure he's due to continue his .334 BA, he will likely stay in the mid .800s in OPS while being a pest and a leader in the clubhouse. Now that he has the one for the thumb, its time to go forward to the other hand now.

 

Now on to ARod. Call me a Yankee loving pinstriped glasses biased fan if you want to, but I think ARod puts up an MVP caliber season in 2010. He's finally healthy and he proved in the postseason that when he's on, he is still one of the top 3 hitters in the entirety of baseball (with Mauer and Pujols). Now, with the ring in hand and the hip healthy, I see ARod topping the 1.000OPS range again in 2010 and putting up obscene RBI totals with a full season of Tex, Johnson and Jeter in front of him.

 

Overall, it will once again be the best offensive infield in the game by far and should carry the lineup through even the darkest of times.

[Imperial59]

Yankees Infield

 

The production from the 4 Yankee infielders is unmatched. Starting with Mark Teixeira, who had an MVP caliber season, this quartet will post ridiculous numbers for another few season. Tex had a season in line with his recent performance with 39 homers, 122RBI and a mid .900s OPS. At 29 yr old, there is no reason to suspect that he cannot repeat that.

 

Moving on to 2b, Robinson Cano has been described as an enigma. Well, he really isnt that enigmatic when you break down his numbers. He's been a major leaguer for 5 full seasons now. He's posted an .840+OPS in 3 of those seasons. His BA has been at or above .297 in all but one season. And in that one delinquent season, after the ASB he put up a standard .300+BA .800+OPS line. So, aside for one half season, he's been pretty damn consistent. Also, he just turned 27 yrs old, so he's entering the prime of his career. Accompanied by the opening of the new launching pad, Cano has seen his power numbers improve to career highs in HR (25), 2B (48), and IsoPower (.200). Surprisingly, he did hit 11 of his 25 homers on the road, so it points more towards and overall improvement in power, which is to be expected. I have been predicting for quite some time that he'd eventually develop patience, but that seems to be unchanged in his approach. Regardless, as a mid .800s OPS 2b who is developing above average power, you kinda gotta be grateful for what you have. I bet he posts a similar season with a bit lower BA but more homeruns.

 

At SS, the old guard put up another banner yr. The captain, Derek Jeter, returns for what could be, but most likely wont be his final season in pinstripes. Jeter had a bit of a rejuvenation in power, speed and defense in 2009 and should be a good bet for continuing success for 2010. Although, I am not sure he's due to continue his .334 BA, he will likely stay in the mid .800s in OPS while being a pest and a leader in the clubhouse. Now that he has the one for the thumb, its time to go forward to the other hand now.

 

Now on to ARod. Call me a Yankee loving pinstriped glasses biased fan if you want to, but I think ARod puts up an MVP caliber season in 2010. He's finally healthy and he proved in the postseason that when he's on, he is still one of the top 3 hitters in the entirety of baseball (with Mauer and Pujols). Now, with the ring in hand and the hip healthy, I see ARod topping the 1.000OPS range again in 2010 and putting up obscene RBI totals with a full season of Tex, Johnson and Jeter in front of him.

 

Overall, it will once again be the best offensive infield in the game by far and should carry the lineup through even the darkest of times.

 

Do you really need to break down your predictions into smaller sections like this? You're just repeating the same thing over and over again by predicting improvement from virtually every position.

[jacksonianmarch]

Improvement? Really? Can you read?

 

Although, I am not sure he's due to continue his .334 BA, he will likely stay in the mid .800s in OPS

 

And I predicted a slight regression from Posada as well. Thus far, the only guys I have predicted true blue improvements from are David Robertson and Alex Rodriguez.

[yankees228]

And to expect an improvement from both of those guys is reasonable, in my opinion.

 

EDIT: A-Rod, simply because he's healthy, and Robertson hopefully continues to progress.

[Imperial59]

Improvement? Really? Can you read?

 

Thus far' date=' the only guys I have predicted true blue improvements from are David Robertson and Alex Rodriguez.[/quote']

 

Perhaps the issue is that I read too well? :dunno:

 

I actually expect improvements over Burnett and Sabathia.

 

Joba will be in season 2 of his starting pitching transformation which should lend to a bit more consistency and a bit more length.

 

Damaso Marte looks to be back to his typical form after a very strong playoff run.

 

A personal favorite of mine. He posted 4 scoreless innings after getting lit up all season and he's back to his normal form

 

the new guy' date=' Mark Melancon should be ready to start ascending to the back of the pen as well (he's my sleeper pick for future Yankee closer).[/quote']

 

Brett Gardner replaces Melky at the bottom of the lineup' date=' which actually has the probability of being an upgrade due to Gardner's eye and lightning speed[/quote']

 

Johnson in the #2 hole will be an improvement over Damon solely based on OBP as long as he can remain healthy.

 

And that's just your first post in this thread.

[Gom]

Ouch.