Keith Law Top 100 includes 7 Red Sox

[jacksonianmarch]

Ital, the yankee system was ranked higher after the 2007 season when Joba, Hughes, and Kennedy were still considered prospects.

 

Also, prior to their trades, this season the yankees system would have rated out higher in a lot of areas. When you deal Vizcaino, Jackson, Kennedy, and Dunn, you thin out your depth a bit

[jacksonianmarch]

Here is a list of farm systems from the same Frankie Piliere.

 

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/26/2010-farm-system-rankings/

 

He has the Red Sox at #11, the Yankees at #15, and that is after the trades of Vizcaino, Dunn, Jackson, and Kennedy. I think that's about right. I'd give the sox the edge by a nose right now after dealing away the talent we did and after the sox dynamite 2009 draft.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, back to this Piliere guy, do you know what scouts get paid? Yeah, they get paid jack-s*** until they get into the cross-checker role or into a national role. Being a lower level scout is a tough life and why a lot of guys will do it for a few yrs then become an analyst or a writer. Making articles is easier to do, requires less travel and hours, and is more lucrative.

 

Its kinda funny, I actually spoke with Piliere on PinstripesPlus. He's a regular contributor to Scout.com on many levels, on the sox, the yanks, the rangers and a few others. He had to go away for the 3 yrs he was a Rangers scout and now he can update people there. He knows his s***.

[italstallianion]

Man, I can only imagine how misled people would be if they took Jacko at full seriousness. I think we should come up with a discount factor to discount the outlandish claims/opinions/exaggerations Jacko has and discount it towards reality. Don't forget that the Red Sox traded away prospects recently and the fact that you even mentioned Ian Kennedy means that you're stretching.

[Dipre]

Here is a list of farm systems from the same Frankie Piliere.

 

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/01/26/2010-farm-system-rankings/

 

He has the Red Sox at #11, the Yankees at #15, and that is after the trades of Vizcaino, Dunn, Jackson, and Kennedy. I think that's about right. I'd give the sox the edge by a nose right now after dealing away the talent we did and after the sox dynamite 2009 draft.

 

What about Pedroia and Lester for the beginning of 2007?

 

It works both ways.

[BSN07]

Plumpa and Imperial on their typical rampages. Not surprising. That being said' date=' I am intrigued by how BA is going to handle this. BA released their yankee top 30 not too long ago and Banuelos was 5th on that list. Also, how Austin Romine isnt on a top 100 list is downright ridiculous. He was only the player of the yr in the FSL and was younger than almost everyone to boot. I have a feeling BA will have an equal amount of sox and yankee prospects as I believe both systems are pretty comparable at this time[/quote']

 

BA would probably be the best gauge out of the 3 IMO. We can put the debate on hold until it comes out

[jacksonianmarch]

What about Pedroia and Lester for the beginning of 2007?

 

It works both ways.

 

After 2007, Lester wasnt a prospect anymore, technically. Prior to 2007, the sox had it. After Pedroia, Delcarmen and Lester graduated, the Yankees took the lead

[Imperial59]

After 2007' date=' Lester wasnt a prospect anymore, technically. Prior to 2007, the sox had it. After Pedroia, Delcarmen and Lester graduated, the Yankees took the lead[/quote']

 

I'm not sure why you guys are arguing about who had the better farm system. The point of the farm system is to develop good major league players, not to have the bragging rights to the best farm system.

 

That the farm systems graduated Pedrioa, Lester, Chamberlain, Hughes, etc. is a bonus.

[jacksonianmarch]

Its more of a future thing and being able to see these guys when they were nothing. Also, prediction who is gonna be good is fun, IMO.

[Imperial59]

Its more of a future thing and being able to see these guys when they were nothing. Also' date=' prediction who is gonna be good is fun, IMO.[/quote']

 

Predicting who is going to be good is purely subjective. Projecting what farm system has produced the best major league ready players is the most substantial way to judge a farm system.

[example1]

I'll give yo a guarantee. These 8 prospects in the top 100 will not all become full time major league players for the Red Sox. I'd set the over/under at 3' date=' and it will take 3-5 years before that happens. It's just a list of prospects, and it is a subjective one at that. Just my opinion.[/quote']

 

I'll agree with your guarantee. However, there are also players in the Sox system currently who were not on that list of 100 who will be big leaguers too.

 

Second, you think over/under 3 of those players will end up producing at the big league level? What's wrong with that? If they add an impact SP from that group (Kelly) a suitable 1B (Anderson/Rizzo) and a better than average MLB SS (Iglesias) that seems like a lot to me, even if it is only a percentage of the 8 prospects in the top 100. I think Westmoreland pretty clearly has the best upside of the group, but I need to see him produce above A ball before assuming he'll be an MLB regular.

 

In any case, with the same percentage argument your point could have been that the Red Sox probably have more impact talent coming through their system than most other teams do. That is a good thing.

[jacksonianmarch]

Predicting who is going to be good is purely subjective. Projecting what farm system has produced the best major league ready players is the most substantial way to judge a farm system.

 

But that's after the fact, which doesnt help you much going forward

[Dojji]

But that's after the fact' date=' which doesnt help you much going forward[/quote']

 

Sure it does. Past performance may not be a guarantee of future performance, but it is an indicator.

[Plumpamania]

Its kinda funny, I actually spoke with Piliere on PinstripesPlus.

 

And this is why Jackson takes him so highly. What's funny for those who used to post up at Netsports, Brandonwarne also has a blog at mlbblogs.com and has a decent following. Should I take his word over the word of this failed Italian scout? Writing blogs online isn't more lucrative than scouting. It's actually a very poor practice..

[a700hitter]

I'll agree with your guarantee. However, there are also players in the Sox system currently who were not on that list of 100 who will be big leaguers too.

 

Second, you think over/under 3 of those players will end up producing at the big league level? What's wrong with that? If they add an impact SP from that group (Kelly) a suitable 1B (Anderson/Rizzo) and a better than average MLB SS (Iglesias) that seems like a lot to me, even if it is only a percentage of the 8 prospects in the top 100. I think Westmoreland pretty clearly has the best upside of the group, but I need to see him produce above A ball before assuming he'll be an MLB regular.

 

In any case, with the same percentage argument your point could have been that the Red Sox probably have more impact talent coming through their system than most other teams do. That is a good thing.

You take everything as a criticism of the FO. I never said that there is anything wrong with 3 players producing at the ML level. I just said that the list is subjective, and people should not read too much into it. The stock of prospects rises and falls dramatically from year to year. If Lars Anderson has another year like last year, he drops out of the top 200. If he has a good year, he could jump to top 20. I think we'd be lucky to have 3 guys from the system make it to the majors and be productive in 3 to 5 years (probably closer to 5 years). It takes time to develop these kids. I think it is a long shot that we have more than 1 or 2 of these kids producing as regulars by 2012. In the mean time, there will be a big turnover in the current roster that will leave more than 2 holes (probably more like 4 or 5 holes) that will need to be filled through trade or FA. It's a comment not a criticism.

[example1]

I think we'd be lucky to have 3 guys from the system make it to the majors and be productive in 3 to 5 years (probably closer to 5 years). It takes time to develop these kids.

 

3 guys from the whole system? 5 years? I'll take the over.

 

The Sox have had a run of success with their prospects over the past 5-6 years and I expect that to continue if only because they cast such a wide net for talent. They spend as much money in the talent acquisition process as anyone in baseball, and if they hit paydirt with 3 impact players (say, Iglesias, Kelly and Westmoreland) they could be perennial AL favorites for the next decade.

 

I can't help but think that the FO would consider putting Casey Kelly into the #5 spot in 2011 if he has a great year in 2010. He would be an alternative play to resigning Beckett, and that would only work if Dice-K rebounds and Buchholz puts together a complete season on impressive work. If that happens though, I imagine they will think hard about whether they want to commit a huge amount of money on Beckett.

[a700hitter]

If you set the over/under too high, no one would take the over. We are not talking about guys merely making the roster. I am refering to guys that are regulars. Shall we start the clock running? By the beginning of 2013, you are betting that 4 or more guys will emerge from the Sox minor league system to claim starting jobs in the lineup or starting rotation. We shall see.

[Dipre]

3 guys from the whole system? 5 years? I'll take the over.

 

The Sox have had a run of success with their prospects over the past 5-6 years and I expect that to continue if only because they cast such a wide net for talent. They spend as much money in the talent acquisition process as anyone in baseball, and if they hit paydirt with 3 impact players (say, Iglesias, Kelly and Westmoreland) they could be perennial AL favorites for the next decade.

 

I can't help but think that the FO would consider putting Casey Kelly into the #5 spot in 2011 if he has a great year in 2010. He would be an alternative play to resigning Beckett, and that would only work if Dice-K rebounds and Buchholz puts together a complete season on impressive work. If that happens though, I imagine they will think hard about whether they want to commit a huge amount of money on Beckett.

 

Please no on the "Let go Beckett, start Kelly idea"

 

If you set the over/under too high' date=' no one would take the over. We are not talking about guys merely making the roster. I am refering to guys that are regulars. Shall we start the clock running? By the beginning of 2013, you are betting that 4 or more guys will emerge from the Sox minor league system to claim starting jobs in the lineup or starting rotation. We shall see.[/quote']

 

Bullpen arms can also be considered regulars, and are very important to round out a numbers, and usually the easiest to graduate, so thinking by 2012 5 or 6 current farm guys will be in the roster is not as crazy as it seems.

[jacksonianmarch]

After the sox 2009 draft, I'd probably take the over, although I think many more players will come to fruition on other teams. They traded a few good prospects away last season and once other players come up the pipe and are blocked, they'll probably have to deal away a few more.

[Dipre]

After the sox 2009 draft' date=' I'd probably take the over, although I think many more players will come to fruition on other teams. They traded a few good prospects away last season and once other players come up the pipe and are blocked, they'll probably have to deal away a few more.[/quote']

 

I think (predictions are dumb, i know) that the following current prospects will be part of the 25-man come 2012.

 

1) Casey Kelly, Starting Rotation.

2) Ryan Westmoreland, OF

3) Jose Iglesias, SS

4)Luis Exposito, C (Bench)

5) Josh Reddick, OF (Bench

6)Madison Younginer (BP)

7) Derrick Gibson (Bench)

[jacksonianmarch]

I highly, highly, highly doubt that Younginer is in the bigs for 2012. While he has more ceiling than Buchholz or Kelly, he also has a lot further to go. I bet they take it very slowly with him, probably have him in short season leagues at least through the end of this yr and go one level at a time until he reaches A+. I bet he hits the bigs as a fine tuned machine in 2013 or 2014.

[Dipre]

I highly' date=' highly, highly doubt that Younginer is in the bigs for 2012. While he has more ceiling than Buchholz or Kelly, he also has a lot further to go. I bet they take it very slowly with him, probably have him in short season leagues at least through the end of this yr and go one level at a time until he reaches A+. I bet he hits the bigs as a fine tuned machine in 2013 or 2014.[/quote']

 

I think otherwise. His problems maintaining his release point are akin to other high-power SP prospects who end up being converted to relief. I'm banking on them moving him to the BP, but that's just me.

[jacksonianmarch]

That's typically a shrewd thought when it comes to MiLB pitchers since the majority do end up in the pen. I think this kid is the good, though.

[Dipre]

That's typically a shrewd thought when it comes to MiLB pitchers since the majority do end up in the pen. I think this kid is the good' date=' though.[/quote']

 

If they can fix his release point issue next year, i'll tend to agree with you more, but inconsistent release does not only lead to command trouble, it can also lead to shoulder issues (Read:Jonathan Papelbon).

[a700hitter]

Please no on the "Let go Beckett, start Kelly idea"

 

 

 

Bullpen arms can also be considered regulars, and are very important to round out a numbers, and usually the easiest to graduate, so thinking by 2012 5 or 6 current farm guys will be in the roster is not as crazy as it seems.

No, I'm not counting bullpen arms count except for closer. Bullpen regulars other than closer are pretty rare. The expected tenure by a non-closer is pretty short if you look at the turnover in our pen over the last several years, and most of them are not major contributors. Also, no current Sox like Bard or Buchholz count. Only guys not currently in the big league who come up through the Sox system count. I hope that clarifies the bet.

[a700hitter]

I think (predictions are dumb, i know) that the following current prospects will be part of the 25-man come 2012.

 

1) Casey Kelly, Starting Rotation.

2) Ryan Westmoreland, OF

3) Jose Iglesias, SS

4)Luis Exposito, C (Bench)

5) Josh Reddick, OF (Bench

6)Madison Younginer (BP)

7) Derrick Gibson (Bench)

 

That would put you at 3 (in bold), so you wouldn't win or lose.

[Dojji]

Not forgetting that "lesser lights" in particular Ryan Kalish, Mark Wagner, and Dustin Richardson, have a very good chance of earning playing time on at least a part-time basis within the next 2 years themselves. I could see any of those three plus Felix Doubront playing bench/bullpen roles in the very near future.

 

Kalish is at least a solid 4th OF with good baserunning speed, strong D from all 3 outfield spots, and useful power. Even if a starting spot doesn't open for him here, there's no way he's not going to get a chance to crack the bench.

 

Wagner's got the defensive chops to thrive as a backup catcher, and at least some hope of hitting.

 

Both Doubront and Richardson are talented LHP's with at least bullpen utility. I could see Doubront in the inning burning "Long Lefty" role, while Richardson seems like a standard issue LOOGY type.

 

We couold see any of these players next year depending on how the roster falls out. Richardson might even break camp with the team (longshot, but our bottom bullpen slots are open)

[a700hitter]

Not forgetting that "lesser lights" in particular Ryan Kalish' date=' Mark Wagner, and Dustin Richardson, have a very good chance of earning playing time on at least a part-time basis within the next 2 years themselves. I could see any of those three plus Felix Doubront playing bench/bullpen roles in the very near future.[/quote']We are talking about major contributors in a 3 year time frame. Lot's of guys will crack the rosters for short periods. Should we count Aaron Bates in the same class as Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester and Papelbon?

[Dipre]

Kalish is at least a solid 4th OF with good baserunning speed, strong D from all 3 outfield spots, and useful power. Even if a starting spot doesn't open for him here, there's no way he's not going to get a chance to crack the bench.

 

Reddick has the better bat and the better arm, i think he has a much better chance of cracking the roster.

 

Wagner's got the defensive chops to thrive as a backup catcher, and at least some hope of hitting.

 

Exposito's got the defense, more raw power, and a better approach. Ditto for him.

 

Both Doubront and Richardson are talented LHP's with at least bullpen utility. I could see Doubront in the inning burning "Long Lefty" role, while Richardson seems like a standard issue LOOGY type.

 

Yeah, but honestly, they could crack the roster sometime next year, what are the odds of either of them still being with the club in '12? Specially with a bullpen that's becoming more and more geared towards power arms.

 

We couold see any of these players next year depending on how the roster falls out. Richardson might even break camp with the team (longshot, but our bottom bullpen slots are open)

 

That's exactly the point, it's likely that those that crack the roster now but have fringe stuff/limited potential won't be with the club come 2012.

[Dipre]

That would put you at 3 (in bold)' date=' so you wouldn't win or lose.[/quote']

 

If Younginer gets converted to a reliever, he might put me over the top.