Keith Law Top 100 includes 7 Red Sox

[jacksonianmarch]

He is a Boras client....

 

Its always possible that Jacoby gets moved. Reddick does bring more to the table in terms of his average to above average power. But in order for the sox to make that decision, I would assume they would need to see an extended string of Reddick. So the only way they move Jacoby for Reddick, IMO, is if someone gets hurt this yr and he steps in for an extended period of time.

[Dipre]

He is a Boras client....

 

Its always possible that Jacoby gets moved. Reddick does bring more to the table in terms of his average to above average power. But in order for the sox to make that decision, I would assume they would need to see an extended string of Reddick. So the only way they move Jacoby for Reddick, IMO, is if someone gets hurt this yr and he steps in for an extended period of time.

 

I don't think Reddick's getting an extended look this year, specially with Hermida as the 4th OF.

[Imperial59]

He is a Boras client....

 

Its always possible that Jacoby gets moved. Reddick does bring more to the table in terms of his average to above average power. But in order for the sox to make that decision, I would assume they would need to see an extended string of Reddick. So the only way they move Jacoby for Reddick, IMO, is if someone gets hurt this yr and he steps in for an extended period of time.

 

The Red Sox aren't going to trade Ellsbury this spring and plug in Reddick as the everyday LF.

[Dipre]

The Red Sox aren't going to trade Ellsbury this spring and plug in Reddick as the everyday LF.

 

He wasn't talking about this year, Imp.

 

He meant giving an extended look at Reddick for 2010, and if he excels and an opportunity to trade Ells comes along, then do so and plug Reddick for 2011.

[Imperial59]

He wasn't talking about this year, Imp.

 

He meant giving an extended look at Reddick for 2010, and if he excels and an opportunity to trade Ells comes along, then do so and plug Reddick for 2011.

 

Ah, OK. That sounds much more realistic. Next year will be Ellsbury's first year of arbitration.

[Spudboy]

The only reason to use the term "the upper minors" in my opinion is to encompass both AA and AAA. Otherwise, just saying "AAA" or "Pawtucket" is clearer.

 

I'm cognizant of the strikeouts, but I'm not too worried about them because they're not the result of an inability to make contact, which is IMHO the big reason you'd worry about strikeouts. Reddick is a power hitter, strikeouts come with the territory -- even more disciplined power hitters like Ortiz, Youks or Bay sill strike out a fair bit. Hitting for power without striking out a ton is reserved for utter freaks like Pujols and Mauer.

 

I'm more concerned about the franchise's willingness to jerk him around. It strikes me as exactly the wrong approach with a guy like Reddick who needs to get consistent reps in order to gain confidence and discipline.

 

Which is exactly what he'll get in Pawtucket.

 

It was a small sample size, to be sure, but I saw Reddick play at Fenway in September.

My lasting impression was that he has blistering speed and a refined athleticism. I know nothing of his power. His contact skills seemed at least average. Plate discipline should come with experience.

 

I think he's going to be up for good within a year. Just my opinion though.

[Imperial59]

Which is exactly what he'll get in Pawtucket.

 

It was a small sample size, to be sure, but I saw Reddick play at Fenway in September.

My lasting impression was that he has blistering speed and a refined athleticism. I know nothing of his power. His contact skills seemed at least average. Plate discipline should come with experience.

 

I think he's going to be up for good within a year. Just my opinion though.

 

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how he does next year at AAA. I think he could make a fine 4th outfielder and who knows, maybe he'll be good enough to replace Ellsbury or Drew in the future. I think he's a little too aggressive a hitter to be a regular starter for us though.

 

I think Westmoreland is a much more exciting player. He's much more patient, hits for more power and plays better defense. It's probably not realistic to expect him to be ready for the majors next year though.

[example1]

No' date=' I'm not counting bullpen arms count except for closer. Bullpen regulars other than closer are pretty rare. The expected tenure by a non-closer is pretty short if you look at the turnover in our pen over the last several years, and most of them are not major contributors. Also, no current Sox like Bard or Buchholz count. Only guys not currently in the big league who come up through the Sox system count. I hope that clarifies the bet.[/quote']

 

I was considering bullpen arms too.

 

I disagree about the expected tenure of bullpen arms. Historically this has been true, but when it comes to cost controlled arms, I expect that a number of arms will stick around. Manny Delcarman is not the world's best pitcher, but he has been around for awhile and will probably stick around until FA. The same is true of Ramon Ramirez and will probably be true of Daniel Bard.

 

Also, as Jacko said, if we count players who go to other teams and start regularly (removing the Sox depth from the equation) then I'm definitely taking the over on 3 regular position players for sure.

[a700hitter]

I was considering bullpen arms too.

 

I disagree about the expected tenure of bullpen arms. Historically this has been true, but when it comes to cost controlled arms, I expect that a number of arms will stick around. Manny Delcarman is not the world's best pitcher, but he has been around for awhile and will probably stick around until FA. The same is true of Ramon Ramirez and will probably be true of Daniel Bard.

 

Also, as Jacko said, if we count players who go to other teams and start regularly (removing the Sox depth from the equation) then I'm definitely taking the over on 3 regular position players for sure.

I set the terms on my own over/under bet. I consider most bullpen pitchers to be filler, not major contributors. Guys that pitch 50-60 innings in a year have to be really special to be considered major contributors.

 

Edit: Do want to reconsider your over/under projection?

[example1]

I set the terms on my own over/under bet. I consider most bullpen pitchers to be filler, not major contributors. Guys that pitch 50-60 innings in a year have to be really special to be considered major contributors.

 

Edit: Do want to reconsider your over/under projection?

 

If you will take your ball and go home otherwise, I will agree with you at 3 but wouldn't be surprised if it was more. I would be surprised if it is less.

[a700hitter]

If you will take your ball and go home otherwise' date=' I will agree with you at 3 but wouldn't be surprised if it was more. I would be surprised if it is less.[/quote']If you want to count bullpen pitchers, how do we differentiate between the significant contributor and the inning filler. There's only one 1B, 2B, SS, 3B etc and 5 starting pitchers. We are not counting positional backups, so why should we count bullpen guys other than the closer. Lots of guys will come up for games throughout the year, but we need to differentiate between the Hunter Joneses, Aaron Bates and the Pedroia's and Lester's. It means that I set the over/under pretty well if you could see it going either way. What's your prediction? I am figuring 1 SS, 1 OF and 1 SP. If a catcher can make the grade, we'll get to 4. I'd go with the over.

[Imperial59]

If you want to count bullpen pitchers' date=' how do we differentiate between the significant contributor and the inning filler. There's only one 1B, 2B, SS, 3B etc and 5 starting pitchers. We are not counting positional backups, so why should we count bullpen guys other than the closer. Lots of guys will come up for games throughout the year, but we need to differentiate between the Hunter Joneses, Aaron Bates and the Pedroia's and Lester's. It means that I set the over/under pretty well if you could see it going either way. What's your prediction? I am figuring 1 SS, 1 OF and 1 SP. If a catcher can make the grade, we'll get to 4. I'd go with the over.[/quote']

 

Does it really matter? I doubt someone's going to make good on a sig bet 5 years from now.

[a700hitter]

Does it really matter? I doubt someone's going to make good on a sig bet 5 years from now.

There's not really much to discuss until they open camp, and this is a prospect thread, so what's your problem with discussing who will make the team and when?

[Dipre]

Holy s***......

[example1]

There's not really much to discuss until they open camp' date=' and this is a prospect thread, so what's your problem with discussing who will make the team and when?[/quote']

 

I agree. I don't think you're being argumentative so I'm game.

 

From what I've heard Jose Iglesias will be an above average MLB SS defensively. That's worth a lot in terms of WAR. At low cost it is worth much more, as it frees up space for salary to be spent elsewhere and eliminates one of the most difficult positions to fill. Double victory. With Scutaro signed for 2 years I think Iglesias will be there with or without a bat.

 

Ryan Westmoreland is apparently an amazing player. The words that are being used about him really put him into a pretty rare category for Red Sox position prospects, even during the FO's prospect-rich recent run. That's exciting. With Cameron signed for two years there's certainly opportunity awaiting if Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick or Che Hsuan Lin don't take it first. I think with all of the OFs this team has invested in, at least one of them will be in a starting spot by then. Westmoreland may be the best of the bunch, but there are a number of others who I could see taking off too.

 

Casey Kelly's biggest problem will probably be finding a starting spot among these 5 pitchers. Like I said, his chances of starting increase greatly if they don't resign Beckett. I hope they do resign him, but if Kelly is actually a great pitcher and they can use that money to get an elite bat, I'd be happier with that, as I don't see the next Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols coming through the farm.

 

They also have Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa, who would both be starting very soon on many other teams. Bowden actually put up good numbers in AAA at 22 and has a low 3 ERA and sub 1.2 WHIP over his last 270.2 IP between AA and AAA. He's a potentially effective member of a rotation, even as a young #4-5 on another team. Same goes for Tazawa, who may have slightly better stuff.

 

Lars Anderson and Anthony Rizzo both have good upsides but I haven't seen that either is just crushing the ball. I question whether the era of the ubiquitious "big slugger" is over and defense and versatility will go back to being the most important factors. Either way, the power hasn't developed fully for either of them, so I'm not going to predict that they will be filling a corner infield or DH spot. I hope they do, but not going to the mat on it.

 

I think that the reason more guys won't graduate to regular spots is, as you said, due to the team's current talent level, not the talent level of the Sox system. If the Sox system is filled with guys who could start on lesser teams then I expect to see more and more trades of those guys moving forward to fill other key needs.

[Keeper]

I think Iglesias is a good bet - if his bat catches up to his glove. I've heard comparisons to Omar Vizquel. You've got to like that.

 

Everyone raves about Westmoreland's potential. Best position prospect since Hanley, has all the tools, etc. But I'd like to see what he can do in a full season at a higher level. I don't think the shoulder surgery and broken collarbone are anything to really worry about, but if he gets hurt again this year that could be a red flag.

 

I could see Kelly finding a spot in the rotation. The Sox should definitely resign Beckett. But if Dice-K doesn't rebound or Buchholz doesn't pan out/is traded, the door would be wide open for Kelly.

 

I'm a little biased, but I think Ryan Lavarnway is also someone who should be mentioned in the discussion. Big man with big power. And he reminds me a little of Frank Thomas here.

[Dojji]

Just curious: do you think Lavarnway is a catcher, Keeper?

 

Tim Federowicz is I think one of the catchers the organization needs to most keep an eye on. From what I've heard the defensive skills are unquestionable and he took a big step forward offensively. Remains to be seen if he can sustain it obviously, but Fed's got a chance.

[Dipre]

*Sigh*

 

If his bat plays out, it won't matter whether if he is or isn't a catcher. Just ask Carlos Delgado, he'll tell you.

[Dojji]

Sure, or Paul Konerko or Ryan garko and the list goes on, but that's not why I asked. I was just curious about whether his catching skills are likely to stand up -- particularly his arm and release, which are a little Jon Still-ish from what I've heard.

[Dipre]

Sure' date=' or Paul Konerko or Ryan garko and the list goes on, but that's not why I asked. I was just curious about whether his catching skills are likely to stand up -- particularly his arm and release, which are a little Jon Still-ish from what I've heard.[/quote']

 

Release point inconsistencies are extremely difficult to fix on catchers (V-Mart anyone?), so my guess is he ends up as a 1B/DH. Not only is his arm inconsistent, he has trouble blocking the plate, and he's slow out of the crouch. And absolute mess at Catcher.

[Dojji]

Airight. good to know. Last time I read anything on Lavarnway they were still taking him somewhat seriously as a catcher, but that was awhile ago.

[Dipre]

Airight. good to know. Last time I read anything on Lavarnway they were still taking him somewhat seriously as a catcher' date=' but that was awhile ago.[/quote']

 

2010 is a pivotal year for him. He has to show he can handle catcher or he'll be moved to a corner. It's as simple as that.

[Dojji]

Any chance he takes the Pablo Sandoval route instead of the Paul Konerko one, or is he too unathletic for that? If his up to it, we could do with a 3B prospect or two.

[Dipre]

Any chance he takes the Pablo Sandoval route' date=' or is he too unathletic for that? If his arm's up to it, we could do with a 3B.[/quote']

 

He's got a much more athletic build than Sandoval (Carlos Quentin-ish), but he has a ton of present power and plate discipline, which is a recipe for success in the Majors. If he rakes at AA and shows he can handle a position (preferably 3rd just like you suggested) adequately he might be a regular come '12-13.

[Keeper]

Just curious: do you think Lavarnway is a catcher' date=' Keeper?[/quote']

 

I would have to agree with your skepticism and Dipre's assessment. Catching may not be in the cards for him. If he develops, maybe he could get by a la Javy Lopez? But in all likelihood, he's probably headed for a corner position.

[Dipre]

I would have to agree with your skepticism and Dipre's assessment. Catching may not be in the cards for him. If he develops' date=' maybe he could get by a la Javy Lopez? But in all likelihood, he's probably headed for a corner position.[/quote']

 

3B is not a position of depth for the Sox, since Michael Almanzar is a bust (calling it now), so if he can handle it, that's probably where he ends up.

[Dojji]

That'd be nice to see -- a good, impressive bat at third coming through the system is something we really haven't had. Youkilis didn't break out until he hit the big leagues after all.

[Dipre]

That'd be nice to see -- a good' date=' impressive bat at third coming through the system is something we really haven't had. Youkilis didn't break out until he hit the big leagues after all.[/quote']

 

A kid with that much present power is a sight for sore eyes in the system. If he keeps up the plate discipline and works on his contact skills (because he strikes out like Adam Dunn) we could have a pretty good player in our hands.

[Spudboy]

I'm waiting for Jacko to rain on this parade.

 

Who has the chart?

[Plumpamania]

Jackson will say the kid is as impressive as Drew Henson..wait he wouldn't admit that.