Papelbon and Sox to Exchange Arbitration Figures

[Dipre]

If you can't see the rather fundamental difference between those two positions' date=' I can't help you.[/quote']

 

 

Actually, i disagree with you here.

 

I think your love for Papelbon is clouding your judgment.

 

I think it'd be easier to to replace an elite closer than an elite glove/bat combo like Teixeira's.

[Dojji]

Teixeira is water under the bridge. I still don't think there's any way we could have possibly made an offer New York wouldn't have beaten by $10M. They had a hole at his position and a ton more money than we ever could have had.

 

Papelbon though we have a legitimate chance to keep.

[Dipre]

Teixeira is water under the bridge. I still don't think there's any way we could have possibly made an offer New York wouldn't have beaten by $10M. They had a hole at his position and a ton more money than we ever could have had.

 

Papelbon though we have a legitimate chance to keep.

 

From this perspective, you would be correct.

 

Good point.

[TheMino007]

Theo won't give Papelbon that kind of money. Out of all the young homegrown guys that have made it up to the major leagues-Lester, Pedroia, Youkilis are the only the ones that got offered long term deals. The closer position is a tricky one, and in a couple of years Papelbon could no longer be one of the best. Theo knows that so why risk giving Papelbon a huge contract?

[a700hitter]

Theo won't give Papelbon that kind of money. Out of all the young homegrown guys that have made it up to the major leagues-Lester' date=' Pedroia, Youkilis are the only the ones that got offered long term deals. The closer position is a tricky one, and in a couple of years Papelbon could no longer be one of the best. Theo knows that so why risk giving Papelbon a huge contract?[/quote']...or he could become the best and stay there for 10 years.

[Palodios]

Has anyone read that Edes article about Papelbon? He didn't even know about the players added to the team until January. He seems more and more like the kind of guy they don't want in the organization -- a player that isn't close with his teammates who wants to bleed big money out of the team.

[a700hitter]

Has anyone read that Edes article about Papelbon? He didn't even know about the players added to the team until January. He seems more and more like the kind of guy they don't want in the organization -- a player that isn't close with his teammates who wants to bleed big money out of the team.

He's flaky. Ricky Henderson didn't even know the names of his team mates. He could play on my team any day, and so can Papelbon. They don't need to go to Tupperware parties together. We need guys that play hard and who have a burning desire to win. That's Papelbon.

[example1]

He's flaky. Ricky Henderson didn't even know the names of his team mates. He could play on my team any day' date=' and so can Papelbon. They don't need to go to Tupperware parties together. We need guys that play hard and who have a burning desire to win. That's Papelbon.[/quote']

 

Standing on 1B, Rickey: "Hey, I played in Toronto with a dude who wore a helmet in the field."

John Olerud: "That was me Rickey."

 

I don't expect Papelbon to get hurt and fade into obscurity. He's been a special arm since he arrived. I'm also not expecting the Sox will pay him as much as he would make on the market.

[Dojji]

And I think you're severely underestimating Boston's willingness to pay for the right talent at the right time.

[example1]

And I think you're severely underestimating Boston's willingness to pay for the right talent at the right time.

 

With Rivera's 15m/yr as the ceiling I imagine Papelbon will just want to make more than Lidge (at #2) makes. So a 3 year/39m, or 4 year, 52m deal would do the trick.

 

That is a big investment, but he's an elite pitcher who, although he regressed a bit last year, was still one of the best in the game and could be the best closer in game once Rivera retires.

 

2009 will be his age 29 season. I think that's young enough for a 4 year deal at 13m/yr. It would make him the highest paid closer not named Mariano Rivera. That's setting some precident.

 

He will be an interesting example because he's the first internally developed Red Sox regular to face this situation. Do they pay him a little more than FA value to keep him around? Is there any room for sentimentality/fan loyalty here?

 

A strong argument to me for resigning him is the idea of actually creating an on-field product that has numerous star players together for an era. Papelbon is a 4 time All-Star in 5 seasons. That's somewhat arbitrary, but combined with his great WHIP and ERA+ and SO numbers, it is indicative of him being a good and unique talent worthy of being paid as such.

[riverside sluggers]

Last year the Sox did long term deals with Youk, Lester and Pedroia. I dont have the link but I do remember there being an article about the Sox approaching Papelbon about an extension. Soon after that he said numerous times that he's Ok with going year to year basis.

[YAZMAN]

They should give Paps two figures.

 

One should be his 2010 salary, the other should be what they're willing to pay him if he ever figures out where he left his splitter.

[BSN07]

And I think you're severely underestimating Boston's willingness to pay for the right talent at the right time.

I'm not against them extending him. I just don't see it as likely outcome. Especially if the Yankees are looking for a close. I could see them dropping 5/75M in his lap like it was nothing. And I don't see the Sox matching that to be honest. But hey it's just my own personal view on the situation. Anything is possible.

 

They should give Paps two figures.

 

One should be his 2010 salary, the other should be what they're willing to pay him if he ever figures out where he left his splitter.

 

That's a good one.

[SoxSport]

The way Pap closed out last season, he's lucky to have gotten $9.3 mil. If he declines further this year, I doubt he'll be back. I think school's still out on him. He will have to be dominating again for the Red Sox to spend big bucks on him long term. And even then, it might depend on Bard's progress. I don't think they're big on giving big contracts to closers.

[jacksonianmarch]

If that splitty doesnt come back, then I expect him to have a wake-up call in 2010. If that thing does come back, then he'll be devastating

[Dojji]

Jacko being Jacko again.

[TheMino007]

He's right, if he throws the splitter again he'll be back to the Papelbon of the past, if he just sticks to what he did last year, he'll get rocked harder and pitch worse than last year

[Dojji]

Which is to say, not very hard.

[RedSox2737]

This morning on NESN Mikey Adams said he thinks Pap will be with the Sox for ony one more year...I hope that's not the case

[a700hitter]

This morning on NESN Mikey Adams said he thinks Pap will be with the Sox for ony one more year...I hope that's not the case

We will know that the Sox are cutting ties if we start to see the "Papelbon is a Money-Grubbing A-Hole" articles.

[YAZMAN]

The way Pap closed out last season' date=' he's lucky to have gotten $9.3 mil. If he declines further this year, I doubt he'll be back. I think school's still out on him. He will have to be dominating again for the Red Sox to spend big bucks on him long term. And even then, it might depend on Bard's progress. I don't think they're big on giving big contracts to closers.[/quote']

 

Another thing thats working against him with the missing splitter is that we now have more pitchers who throw harder than him. He comes in fastball only, and many times he's not throwing harder than whoever set up. If it weren't for Oki and his popgun, it would be worse.

[Palodios]

the speed on his fastball really isn't that important when we're talking about a pitcher with the kind of pinpoint precision that he has. Chapman can hit a hundred but he still got rocked in the classic.

[Dojji]

because we all know it's all about fastball velocity. That's why Kyle Farnsworth and Joel Zumaya are elite closers.

[Plumpamania]

the speed on his fastball really isn't that important when we're talking about a pitcher with the kind of pinpoint precision that he has. Chapman can hit a hundred but he still got rocked in the classic.

 

Pinpoint precision, with the amount of BB he gave up last year, I'd say he's losing it...

[YAZMAN]

the speed on his fastball really isn't that important when we're talking about a pitcher with the kind of pinpoint precision that he has. Chapman can hit a hundred but he still got rocked in the classic.

 

He usually has OK location, not pinpoint precision. And he has movement on his fastball, but not great movement. He throws fastball/slider, but it's really more of a 4 seam fastball/ 2 seam cut fastball.

 

No curveball along with the AWOL splitter means little change of speeds, and everybody looking fastball. You can tell by the increase in walks, increase in pitches thrown, and number of two-strike foul balls that he's not as effective as two or three years ago.

 

Throwing mid to high 90's just isn't enough to throw it by hitters anymore, not without a string to pull or other pitch to keep the hitters honest.

[example1]

Interesting interview on Dale and Holley on WEEI yesterday with John Farrell. He talked about the splitter and about Papelbon's release point. Basically it got to the point where hitters were able to notice that his release point indicated an "other' pitch (other than FB) and were taking it consistently, thus reducing the effectiveness of the splitter. In the past Papelbon didn't have that problem, but for whatever reason that changed. Farrell indicated that they hoped the slider would maybe get to that point and that it was at times last year. The larger point was that for a guy who throws so many FBs any change in the release point meant "take" to the batter and he loses his effectiveness.

 

I'm sure this level-headed discussion was just an attempt to throw Papelbon under the bus.

[Plumpamania]

Or it was an honest discussion as they had about Smoltz after he left town doing the same thing: tipping pitches. He fixed that in St. Louis and became more effective.

 

Who cares anyways, he probably won't hear about any of this until Spring Training anyways, the flake.

[a700hitter]

Interesting interview on Dale and Holley on WEEI yesterday with John Farrell. He talked about the splitter and about Papelbon's release point. Basically it got to the point where hitters were able to notice that his release point indicated an "other' pitch (other than FB) and were taking it consistently, thus reducing the effectiveness of the splitter. In the past Papelbon didn't have that problem, but for whatever reason that changed. Farrell indicated that they hoped the slider would maybe get to that point and that it was at times last year. The larger point was that for a guy who throws so many FBs any change in the release point meant "take" to the batter and he loses his effectiveness.

 

I'm sure this level-headed discussion was just an attempt to throw Papelbon under the bus.

You'll know they are throwing him under the bus when "the money-grubbing selfish a--hole" articles start to appear.