Have the Red Sox improved or regressed?

[Dipre]

Yankee Stadium is a launching pad for lefties, but it's a neutral park for righties.

[rhet]

Really?

 

Do you have any way to know if any player (Lowell included) didn't use steroids at some point in their career?

 

Well, Lowell is still alive, so that's enough proof to most educated people he didn't do roids during his major league career.

[Dipre]

Well' date=' Lowell is still alive, so that's enough proof to most educated people he didn't do roids during his major league career.[/quote']

 

Not if said educated person doesn't seem to know very much about the enormous spectrum that the word "steroid" covers.

[Imperial59]

Well' date=' Lowell is still alive, so that's enough proof to most educated people he didn't do roids during his major league career.[/quote']

 

We're talking about steroids, not meth.

[kreinbihl34]

We're talking about steroids' date=' not meth.[/quote']

 

He's implying that if Lowell took steroids while he had cancer he would dead, which is correct.

[Dipre]

He's implying that if Lowell took steroids while he had cancer he would dead' date=' which is correct.[/quote']

 

But there's also the fact that he could have taken them before the cancer was discovered, which would still be using steroids. Interestingly enough, anabolic steroids have been closely linked to testicular cancer.

[kreinbihl34]

But there's also the fact that he could have taken them before the cancer was discovered' date=' which would still be using steroids. Interestingly enough, anabolic steroids have been closely linked to testicular cancer.[/quote']

 

Haha yeah we were talking about that in Biotechnology the other day.

[Dipre]

Haha yeah we were talking about that in Biotechnology the other day.

 

Then you know where i'm coming from.

 

The "milkshake" reference was a joke of course, but trying to imply any player has always been "clean" as of right now is a difficult task., and for the record, Lowell's 32 HR season is simply a slight fluke, since his 17 HR/FB% nearly doubles his career averages. It simply happens sometimes.

[Imperial59]

Here's some food for though.

 

In 2004 the Red Sox scored 82 more runs than they did in 2007. But if it was the improved defense, not the offense that won it for us in 2007. They went from the second worst defense in baseball in 2004 (according to UZR) to the 7th best and their run differential improved by 68 runs, event though they lost 82 runs of offense.

[Imperial59]

If anyone doubts that defense is a major difference maker, tust look at the teams that have played in the World Series lately.

 

Yankees - 19th in UZR, Phillies - 8th in UZR

Rays - 1st in UZR, Phillies - 2nd in UZR

Red Sox - 7th in UZR, Rockies - 10th in UZR

Tigers - 3rd in UZR, Cardinals - 10th in UZR

White Sox - 4th in UZR, Astros - 11th in UZR

Red Sox - 29th in UZR, Cardinals - 8th in UZR

 

Only 2 out of 12 teams that made the World Series had poor defense. 9 of the 12 teams were in the top 1/3 of team UZR. And the only two teams that won the World Series with a poor defense scored over 900 runs, which isn't realistically in reach for us next year.

[example1]

If anyone doubts that defense is a major difference maker, tust look at the teams that have played in the World Series lately.

 

Yankees - 19th in UZR, Phillies - 8th in UZR

Rays - 1st in UZR, Phillies - 2nd in UZR

Red Sox - 7th in UZR, Rockies - 10th in UZR

Tigers - 3rd in UZR, Cardinals - 10th in UZR

White Sox - 4th in UZR, Astros - 11th in UZR

Red Sox - 29th in UZR, Cardinals - 8th in UZR

 

Only 2 out of 12 teams that made the World Series had poor defense. 9 of the 12 teams were in the top 1/3 of team UZR. And the only two teams that won the World Series with a poor defense scored over 900 runs, which isn't realistically in reach for us next year.

 

Defense is a very easy way for this club to improve itself. If they had just let Bay go and acquired Beltre and Cameron then I would acknowledge it isn't a net gain. However, the addition of Lackey will have a big impact throughout this team and will maxamize that defensive improvement.

 

They retain all of their good prospects, they got 3 established MLB players on reasonable contracts that stand little chance of hindering the team in the future, and they maxamized their draft picks for next year. I'm extremely confident that this team is going to be good next year, and very very good within the next few years.

[jacksonianmarch]

Heard Gammons on EEI a couple days ago making predictions about the new acqusitions.

 

He said nothing about Lackey other than the obvious, good pitcher, some injury concerns, should be a great addition.

 

He said that Cameron would hit .270 with 25 HRs. BTW, Cameron hit .270 or higher once in his career. In 2005 in an injury plagued yr for the Mets.

 

He also said that he expects Beltre to hit 32HRs next yr in Fenway.

 

Remember the predictions from last yr? Brad Penny will be the best #5 pitcher in the American League. Well, he became the sox #3 starter and by the end, he was miserable

 

And John Smoltz will be the best pitcher in the AL in September. That went over well too.

 

He did say a few things I agree with. He did say that the Red Sox are the second best team in the AL. I agree with him there. Then went on to say that they are the second best team in baseball. I think they are in a dead heat with the Phils on that one, but an argument can be made.

[a700hitter]

Gammons is a stroke victim. That has probably impaired his judgment.

[Dipre]

Heard Gammons on EEI a couple days ago making predictions about the new acqusitions.

 

He said nothing about Lackey other than the obvious, good pitcher, some injury concerns, should be a great addition.

 

He said that Cameron would hit .270 with 25 HRs. BTW, Cameron hit .270 or higher once in his career. In 2005 in an injury plagued yr for the Mets.

 

He also said that he expects Beltre to hit 32HRs next yr in Fenway.

 

Remember the predictions from last yr? Brad Penny will be the best #5 pitcher in the American League. Well, he became the sox #3 starter and by the end, he was miserable

 

And John Smoltz will be the best pitcher in the AL in September. That went over well too.

 

He did say a few things I agree with. He did say that the Red Sox are the second best team in the AL. I agree with him there. Then went on to say that they are the second best team in baseball. I think they are in a dead heat with the Phils on that one, but an argument can be made.

 

Cameron may not hit .270, but he'll hit 25 jacks easy.

 

Beltre hit 25 or more three times in Seattle, so why couldn't he hit 30 at Fenway?

 

I don't care how his predictions went last year, but that doesn't seem a stretch at all unless, of course, you're on the receiving end.

[Palodios]

They retain all of their good prospects' date=' they got 3 established MLB players on reasonable contracts that stand little chance of hindering the team in the future, and they maxamized their draft picks for next year. I'm extremely confident that this team is going to be good next year, and [i']very very good [/i]within the next few years.

 

Everything they've done this year has focused on two things-- staying competitive and keeping focused on the long term.

 

By signing Lackey, they protect their pitching prospects from getting called up too early (Tazawa/Bowden last year) and provides an extra ace, and an insurance policy if Beckett walks. Replacing Lowell protects them from a mid-season injury risk, and gives Lowrie more time to develop after two years of wrist injuries. If they trade Lowell, they will be sure to get a decent prospect in return but right now he's a huge asset from the bench, and so is Hall.

 

They made no big trades, protecting their prospects, but still making all the key replacements needed while staying under the luxury tax. And while they lost a few picks on the type A's, they more than replaced it because they lost wagner and bay to free agency for the four extra high picks. Losing Bay did hurt the offense, but they didn't hurt themselves with a five-year contract on an injury risk player. J Hermida was a good pickup with a nice upside, without losing much for him. Also, convincing Casey Kelley to give up his aspiration as an infielder may be the team's best move all season.

 

Personally, I don't like the Beltre move, or letting Bay go, but I can definitely see why they made the moves they have. If they stay healthy and perform, I don't see them missing the playoffs.

[a700hitter]

They are marginally better than last year, but that will not be enough unless the Yankees get some injuries and perform below expectations.

[Dipre]

The improvement is not marginal. It's substantial.

 

The fact that Penny, Smoltz, Lugo and Varitek are not regulars on this team is a huge upgrade all by itself, everything else is just gravy.

[a700hitter]

The improvement is not marginal. It's substantial.

 

The fact that Penny, Smoltz, Lugo and Varitek are not regulars on this team is a huge upgrade all by itself, everything else is just gravy.

They took a step back in offense, and although Varitek is not a starter, we are not rid of him. He will play about 50 or so games, forcing Beltre, VMart, Youk or Ortiz to the bench those games. If the pitching stays healthy, they will be better than last season. If one of the starters has injury problems, I think we could be wore than last year. Overall, I think the team is marginally better off than last year. If they had gotten Holliday, the improvement would havve been significant. We improved two aspects (pitching and defense) but we slid back on offense. Of course Beltre could play his ass off to get a big contract and Dice K could finally become the Dice K we thought we were getting and everything will be beautiful in the Nation. That's the best case scenario. More realistically, they will be marginally better-- 1 or 2 wins.

[Dipre]

They took a step back in offense' date=' and although Varitek is not a starter, we are not rid of him. He will play about 50 or so games, forcing Beltre, VMart, Youk or Ortiz to the bench those games. If the pitching stays healthy, they will be better than last season. If one of the starters has injury problems, I think we could be wore than last year. Overall, I think the team is marginally better off than last year. If they had gotten Holliday, the improvement would havve been significant. We improved two aspects (pitching and defense) but we slid back on offense. Of course Beltre could play his ass off to get a big contract and Dice K could finally become the Dice K we thought we were getting and everything will be beautiful in the Nation. That's the best case scenario. More realistically, they will be marginally better-- 1 or 2 wins.[/quote']

 

If the Sox maximize Varitek's offensive value (He can still rake at home vs lefties) and have the balls to platoon Ortiz versus lefties if he's not effective against them, that could lessen the blow significantly. Regarding Dice-K, if there's a year i believe he's going to pitch his ass off, it's this year. He's a prima-donna and his pride is hurt. Beltre's going to play for his money, and the ballpark will benefit him. They probably should keep Lowell around to platoon with Ortiz and get some starts. That setup would maximize the team's offensive value.

[Imperial59]

Heard Gammons on EEI a couple days ago making predictions about the new acqusitions.

 

He said nothing about Lackey other than the obvious, good pitcher, some injury concerns, should be a great addition.

 

He said that Cameron would hit .270 with 25 HRs. BTW, Cameron hit .270 or higher once in his career. In 2005 in an injury plagued yr for the Mets.

 

He also said that he expects Beltre to hit 32HRs next yr in Fenway.

 

Yeah, not sure where he's getting the .270 AVG from. I could care less about what AVG Cameron hits for though. The 25 home runs is a pretty safe guess, he's hit 24 and 25 each of the last two years.

 

Beltre hitting 32 home runs in Fenway is certainly possible. He hit 25+ 2006-2008 in a very unfriendly hitting park. His road splits suggest he could have hit 30 home runs had he played all his games away from Safeco.

 

If Fenway Park improves Beltre's numbers anywhere near the level it improved Lowell's, we've got another middle of the order bat.

[Imperial59]

If the Sox maximize Varitek's offensive value (He can still rake at home vs lefties) and have the balls to platoon Ortiz versus lefties if he's not effective against them' date=' that could lessen the blow significantly.[/quote']

 

Yeah, I'm really not too worried about Varitek. He hat an .807 OPS vs. lefties last year and an .821 OPS at home. Victor Martinez has hit righties better over his career, so playing Varitek against some lefties should improve both their offensive value. Plus, he's shown an ability to hit well at the beginning of the year when he's well rested. He usually has an OPS over .800 in April and May. I think getting regular rest will do his bat wonders.

[Dipre]

Yeah' date=' I'm really not too worried about Varitek. He hat an .807 OPS vs. lefties last year and an .821 OPS at home. Victor Martinez has hit righties better over his career, so playing Varitek against some lefties should improve both their offensive value. Plus, he's shown an ability to hit well at the beginning of the year when he's well rested. He usually has an OPS over .800 in April and May. I think getting regular rest will do his bat wonders.[/quote']

 

Jason Varitek OPS by month:

 

April: .803

 

May: .849

 

June: .749

 

July: .819

 

August: .773

 

September/October: .679

 

With the exception of June, he's a much better hitter the first 2/3 of the season.

[Imperial59]

I'm especially interested to see what Scutaro can do. He had a +20.3 UZR at shortstop in 2008, and he lead all AL shortstops in UZR/150 in the first half of last year before his foot slowed him down. All he needs to do is have a .700 OPS and he'll be an improvement offensively over the combined OPS our 2009 shortstops. And Scutaro's another guy who figures to get an offensive boost coming to Fenway. He's played most of his career in the Rogers Center and the Coliseum, neither of which are very friendly to hitters.

 

If he can just play solid defense and be a .350 OBP guy at the bottom of the order, we'd be a lot better off than we were last year.

[The Black Prince]

Pretty much the same quality team IMO, a little better. I'm just waiting on that move that puts us over the top - ADRIAN GONZALEZ - it' gonna happen in June/July, with a contract extension.

[Keeper]

Pretty much the same quality team IMO' date=' a little better. I'm just waiting on that move that puts us over the top - ADRIAN GONZALEZ - it' gonna happen in June/July, with a contract extension.[/quote']

 

Barring a significant injury to Beltre, Youkilis, or Ortiz it's not going to happen. There's simply no room for him on the roster.

[BSN07]

Barring a significant injury to Beltre' date=' Youkilis, or Ortiz it's not going to happen. There's simply no room for him on the roster.[/quote']

 

Yup. Maybe next off season though.

[SoxSport]

Funny thing about media predictions. They might be called the kiss of death, because they never seem to be right. I've often wondered how all those analysts would look if they graded themselves on their predictions. LOL. But they never do, which is understandable. That doesn't prevent them from grading trades and signings, etc that teams make. And even take polls about them. None of this stuff, in my view, should be taken too seriously, since it's all basically entertainment. You make your own judgements based on the facts available, and let it go at that.

[SoxSport]

On this subject of defense, it has to help the pitching. And I think the Red Sox vs Yankees struggle over the years has always been about pitching. That was true in the 40s and early 50s when NY had the pitching advantage, and also the 2000 decade, when the Red Sox had the pitching advantage--except last year when the Yankees signed the top two FA starters and the Red Sox starting pitching took a dive--with Dice-K, Penny, Smoltz and a poor spring from Beckett and Lester. Wake saved them in the spring, but he is only a half-season pitcher these days.

 

I still can't figure out how they won 95 games. Their home record, obviously. They are tough to beat at home--with the small park, the soldout crowds, etc.

 

This year, barring injuries, they should be better. Their pitching should be much better. The lineup is deeper, and some of their pickups should benefit from Fenway , as Gammons implies in his predictions mentioned earlier.

[SoxSport]

Pretty much the same quality team IMO' date=' a little better. I'm just waiting on that move that puts us over the top - ADRIAN GONZALEZ - it' gonna happen in June/July, with a contract extension.[/quote']

 

I wonder if this will happen now that Beltre is in the fold. If he shows anything the first half, there won't be much incentive. I don't think Epstein wants to give up his present and future young outfielders at this point--not with Cameron and Drew ageing.

 

I also think the "poor" teams are under some pressure to retain a core of their stars--look at the Marlins extending JJ and HR. And then there's Greineke and Lincecum. Baseball right now looks like a two-tier sport, and they don't want to make it any worse. I think SD needs to keep AdGon.

[Dojji]

The union is actually starting to take action against teams receiving RS money who aren't spending it on roster. They filed something or other against the Marlins this offseason to that effect. I wouldn't be surprised if a few signings were anounced in the near future just to mollify the MLBPA. Adgon is a good candidate.