Thoughts on Adrian Beltre?

[Imperial59]

I'm sure most of you will have some strong opinions on Beltre, but I've yet to see any thread on him. The Red Sox are still rumored to be in talks with Beltre.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4779997&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

 

They would likely be able to sign him, even if they can't trade Lowell first. They deal they had in place that would have sent Lowell to the Rangers only saved us about $3 million next year. Lowell should be healthy in plenty of time for Spring Training, we could always trade him then to cut salary.

[Spudboy]

I'm sure most of you will have some strong opinions on Beltre, but I've yet to see any thread on him. The Red Sox are still rumored to be in talks with Beltre.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4779997&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

 

They would likely be able to sign him, even if they can't trade Lowell first. They deal they had in place that would have sent Lowell to the Rangers only saved us about $3 million next year. Lowell should be healthy in plenty of time for Spring Training, we could always trade him then to cut salary.

 

Pass.

 

I'm curious to see what Lowell can still do. Although I don't think he'll get the chance.

[Dojji]

I could stand writing Lowell off, but if they're going to replace him, I'd rather not replace him with a guy with an even worse OBP, given an alternative.

[Dipre]

If Lowell's still around, pass on Beltre. If they trade Lowell, welcome to Fenway!

 

Hell, i'd rather have them play Lowell at first and Youk at third if he's still here.

[BSN07]

I'm sure most of you will have some strong opinions on Beltre, but I've yet to see any thread on him. The Red Sox are still rumored to be in talks with Beltre.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4779997&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

 

They would likely be able to sign him, even if they can't trade Lowell first. They deal they had in place that would have sent Lowell to the Rangers only saved us about $3 million next year. Lowell should be healthy in plenty of time for Spring Training, we could always trade him then to cut salary.

 

I'm not sure the Sox are going to be in on Beltre regardless. His price tag is too high right now and would surely push them over the Luxury tax. And all indications are they don't want to.

 

If the Texas deal went through as expected, meaning Ramirez is the return, I think Youk goes to 3B and Martinez/Ramirez/ and Kotchman will rotate at 1B/C.

[Dojji]

If Lowell's still around, pass on Beltre. If they trade Lowell, welcome to Fenway!

 

Hell, i'd rather have them play Lowell at first and Youk at third if he's still here.

 

That should be at least tried, IMHO. Lowell's always had great hands. Maybe you can squeeze one Kevin Millar-esque year out of him there.

[Dipre]

That should be at least tried' date=' IMHO. Lowell's always had great hands. Maybe you can squeeze one Kevin Millar-esque year out of him there.[/quote']

 

Offensively, it's not about squeezing, man. His bat is not an issue. If you can keep him healthy, he'll be Mike Lowell on offense. The problem is that trying him at 1B is a very big gamble no matter how you slice it.

 

DH him vs lefties maybe?

[jacksonianmarch]

If Theo holds to company line, Beltre is an impossibility unless they can shed about 5 millionb in salary.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, if Theo is adamant about staying under the lux tax, then he's handcuffed significantly at the deadline too

[Dojji]

Theo has never been adamant about staying under the lux tax.

[Dipre]

Theo has never been adamant about staying under the lux tax.

 

His keeping in contact with Bay would support your theory.

[jacksonianmarch]

Theo has never been adamant about staying under the lux tax.

 

Adamant was the wrong word. Lets just say, that he really would like to stay under the tax unless he is blown away.

 

Lets put it this way. Lets say....

 

Beltre signs for 9 mil a yr for 3 yrs. It put them over the luxury tax by lets say 5 mil for 2010. That 5 mil is taxes at 40% for 2010, so overally, in yr 1, Beltre would cost $11 million. Now, if they didnt sign Beltre, the lux tax would be 22.5% in 2011 and 30% in 2012. Instead, with Beltre, they'd be at 40% for both those seasons. So, lets say the sox are $10 million over the cap in both 2011 and 2012. Beltre would cost them $10.75 million and $10 million for those seasons. So, instead of 3 yrs 27 million, it becomes 3 yrs $32 million. Is Beltre worth $5 million more than his salary in extra sunk cost? And, that figure assumes the sox are only $10 mil over the cap in 2011, which might be underestimating.

[Dipre]

Adamant was the wrong word. Lets just say, that he really would like to stay under the tax unless he is blown away.

 

That's sensible.

[jacksonianmarch]

The question is, would or should he be blown away by Beltre

[Dipre]

The question is' date=' would or should he be blown away by Beltre[/quote']

 

Doiji didn't post that talking about Beltre, but at your assumption that the Sox would be handcuffed at the TDL.

 

Don't know where you got this one from.

[Spudboy]

The question is' date=' would or should he be blown away by Beltre[/quote']

 

No and no.

 

But he did have a hard-on for Scutaro. And he went out and got him. Admittedly, at considerably lower cost.

 

And, the Sox have some internal options to at 3rd. While short of re-signing Gonzo, there were none at the six.

[jacksonianmarch]

if they dont get Beltre, then they still run into the same predicament with whomever they deal for. They need to believe that getting that player is worth paying 40% more in salary than what they currently make and then having the penalty continue through the next few seasons. We arent talking small money here. We're talking $5-10 million of extra money coming out of the sox pockets

[Dipre]

if they dont get Beltre' date=' then they still run into the same predicament with whomever they deal for. They need to believe that getting that player is worth paying 40% more in salary than what they currently make and then having the penalty continue through the next few seasons. We arent talking small money here. We're talking $5-10 million of extra money coming out of the sox pockets[/quote']

 

That's still not the point.

 

He said they're not adamant about going over the threshold.

 

That's about it. If they find a player worth paying the tax, they'll do it.

[Red Foreman]

I'm sure most of you will have some strong opinions on Beltre, but I've yet to see any thread on him. The Red Sox are still rumored to be in talks with Beltre.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=4779997&campaign=rss&source=MLBHeadlines

 

They would likely be able to sign him, even if they can't trade Lowell first. They deal they had in place that would have sent Lowell to the Rangers only saved us about $3 million next year. Lowell should be healthy in plenty of time for Spring Training, we could always trade him then to cut salary.

 

 

I'd rather see Lowell play out his contract and if he can't get it done give Kotchman a chance. I'd just rather have a corner spot available for upgrade down the road. If Beltre can be had cheaply and for one year he'd be interesting but it doesn't seem he'll bite for that.

[Red Foreman]

if they dont get Beltre' date=' then they still run into the same predicament with whomever they deal for. They need to believe that getting that player is worth paying 40% more in salary than what they currently make and then having the penalty continue through the next few seasons. We arent talking small money here. We're talking $5-10 million of extra money coming out of the sox pockets[/quote']

 

But they don't 'need' to deal for anyone. The only other outside option in AGon and he's cheaper than Beltre.

[JimEdHOF2009]

I would definitely offer him a nice one year deal... Maybe $5 or 6 mill base, with incentives to push it through 8-10 mill.... Let him produce if he wants a long deal. I don't think anyone is gonna spend big money, long term on him after last year's offensive debacle. Lowell looks to be toast.. hopefully we can revisit the trade with Texas after he recovers and plays in ST.. I don't expect Mike Lowell to be on the Red Sox Opening Day roster. I would be shocked to see him there.

 

With Youks, Pedroia, Scutaro, and Beltre...there will not be many groundballs sneaking through infield.. nor will there be any bunts or choppers turning into hits should they be anywhere NEAR Beltre... he is one of the best I have ever seen on the hot corner.

[SoxSport]

I've said in other threads Beltre would be a good pickup if he can produce Lowell's offensive numbers. Chances are he can rebound after an off-year due to injuries. And hit better at Fenway, though his BA at Fenway is below .200. That could be due to the pitching, however.

 

I doubt they'll get him cheap for 1 year. That's Oakland territory. Maybe 3/27 might get him. You're talking about Boras here.

 

AdGon cheaper? Not in terms of the king's ransom of players it would cost them. Not exactly buying low. It could weaken them overall.

 

Anybody notice all of the top Red Sox OF prospects bat left-handed? Kalish, Reddick, Westmoreland. It just points to their need for another RHd hitting outfielder. Or any RHd bats--for that matter. Look for Lowell to get a good look in ST.

[Dipre]

I've said in other threads Beltre would be a good pickup if he can produce Lowell's offensive numbers. Chances are he can rebound after an off-year due to injuries. And hit better at Fenway' date=' though his BA at Fenway is below .200. That could be due to the pitching, however. [/i']

 

He's had 67 PA's at Fenway.

[Red Foreman]

I've said in other threads Beltre would be a good pickup if he can produce Lowell's offensive numbers. Chances are he can rebound after an off-year due to injuries. And hit better at Fenway, though his BA at Fenway is below .200. That could be due to the pitching, however.

 

I doubt they'll get him cheap for 1 year. That's Oakland territory. Maybe 3/27 might get him. You're talking about Boras here.

 

AdGon cheaper? Not in terms of the king's ransom of players it would cost them. Not exactly buying low. It could weaken them overall.

 

Anybody notice all of the top Red Sox OF prospects bat left-handed? Kalish, Reddick, Westmoreland. It just points to their need for another RHd hitting outfielder. Or any RHd bats--for that matter. Look for Lowell to get a good look in ST.

 

 

The message I was replying was talking about luxery taxes so in that regard, yes, Gonzalez would be cheaper. Forget Beltre at 3 years, at least IMO.

[Imperial59]

If Theo holds to company line' date=' Beltre is an impossibility unless they can shed about 5 millionb in salary.[/quote']

 

What is "company line"?

[Dipre]

What is "company line"?

 

Apparently, even though this was never reported, the Sox are adamant about staying under the luxury tax, even though they have been quoted as saying they'll go over it if need be. In fact, they pondered going over it for Bay.

[Imperial59]

Adamant was the wrong word. Lets just say, that he really would like to stay under the tax unless he is blown away.

 

Lets put it this way. Lets say....

 

Beltre signs for 9 mil a yr for 3 yrs. It put them over the luxury tax by lets say 5 mil for 2010. That 5 mil is taxes at 40% for 2010, so overally, in yr 1, Beltre would cost $11 million. Now, if they didnt sign Beltre, the lux tax would be 22.5% in 2011 and 30% in 2012. Instead, with Beltre, they'd be at 40% for both those seasons. So, lets say the sox are $10 million over the cap in both 2011 and 2012. Beltre would cost them $10.75 million and $10 million for those seasons. So, instead of 3 yrs 27 million, it becomes 3 yrs $32 million. Is Beltre worth $5 million more than his salary in extra sunk cost? And, that figure assumes the sox are only $10 mil over the cap in 2011, which might be underestimating.

 

That's not how the luxury tax works Jackson. The Red Sox would be paying 17.5% of the amount of money that they go over the luxury tax, because they haven't gone over the luxury tax in a while. The Yankees only pay 40% on the amount of money that they go over the luxury tax because they've been over the luxury tax every single year, and if you're over the luxury tax threshold 3 years in a row, you pay the maximum 40% penalty.

 

So if the Sox are over the luxury tax by 5 million in 2010, they'd pay an adittional $875,000, not the $5 million figure you just made up. Not nearly as big a deal as you're making it out to be. And they're shedding over $50 million in salary after this year, so they could easily go back under the luxury tax threshold.

[Imperial59]

I think you guys are undervaluing Beltre. He's currently the best defensive third baseman in baseball with UZR/150 ratings of 21.0 and 15.7 the last couple years. And although he had a down year last year, he was hurt and those statistics are a major outlier. The three years prior, he averaged a WAR of 3.9.

 

The three prior years he's hit 25+ home runs in the pitcher's haven of Safeco and he's been good for an OPS of about .800. Not exactly spectacular, but I'm interested to see how he'll do outside of Safeco. In 2008, he hit .292/.342/.512 outside of Safeco and in 2007 he hit .288/.320/.538 outside of Safeco.

[example1]

I think you guys are undervaluing Beltre. He's currently the best defensive third baseman in baseball with UZR/150 ratings of 21.0 and 15.7 the last couple years. And although he had a down year last year, he was hurt and those statistics are a major outlier. The three years prior, he averaged a WAR of 3.9.

 

The three prior years he's hit 25+ home runs in the pitcher's haven of Safeco and he's been good for an OPS of about .800. Not exactly spectacular, but I'm interested to see how he'll do outside of Safeco. In 2008, he hit .292/.342/.512 outside of Safeco and in 2007 he hit .288/.320/.538 outside of Safeco.

 

With WARs that roughly match Cameron's, why should the Sox pay anything more than 2/15m for Beltre?

 

Beltre might be a hidden value because of his defense, but all this "I'd like to see what he does outside of Safeco" stuff doesn't sway me. He's been around long enough for us to know what he does against MLB pitching. Safeco affects how often the ball leaves the park and the amount of room the ball has to find grass, but it doesn't affect whether he makes hard contact or not, or whether he has a good eye with the ability to draw a walk. OBPs of .342 and .320 (in his NON-down years) are unspectacular.

 

He would be valuable because of his defense and his power, but the Sox shouldn't pay very much for that. If he wants to be a key contributer on a contending team, this is his opportunity. If he wants to get Boras-dollars the Sox should look elsewhere.

[rhet]

His OBP doesn't justify his salary demands.