Why the obsession with A-Gon? Considering other alternatives...

[Dipre]

Its not like pujols puts the guys he drives in in scoring position. that is why RBI is a lousy stat. A player could be amazing hitting out of the four hole yet 1-3 suck and barely get on. Put Ryan Howard or Pujols on the Pirates. In the Four hole.

 

Howard ain't driving 140 on the Royals either.

[Emmz]

Better yet, switch their teams around. I guarantee, Howard's RBI's and runs scored go way down, while Pujols' go way up.

[bsox0407]

Better yet' date=' switch their teams around. I guarantee, Howard's RBI's and runs scored go way down, while Pujols' go way up.[/quote']

 

Chase could be stealing some away from Howard though. Not saying Pujols wouldn't go up cause they would.

[Emmz]

Not really. Chase steals a few, but more often than not, it's because of guys like Chase Utley that Howard gets so many RBI.

[bsox0407]

Not really. Chase steals a few' date=' but more often than not, it's because of guys like Chase Utley that Howard gets so many RBI.[/quote']

 

True. With The Phillies front end lineup they should have about 350 RBIS from the 1-4 easy

[Emmz]

I bet Pujols could easily better Ryan Howard's RBI numbers with that lineup. And I mean easily.

[bsox0407]

I bet Pujols could easily better Ryan Howard's RBI numbers with that lineup. And I mean easily.

 

Give anyone that lineup. there RBIS will go up.

[flinch]

I understand the obsession with Agon. However, we know that we are certainly going to over spend. What happened to the Miggy idea? They certainly would love Buch and prospects. He is a proven American league hitter entering his prime. They can certainly absorb his contract. If Hoyer won't take Ells and Buch it's time to move on. Keep Els and get it done with Detroit. They accepted Austin Jackson for Granderson they must be desperate. Jackson's production in the minors was nothing special. Sorry, to rant in my first post it's awfully cold in Vermont we have nothing better to do!

[Emmz]

While he certainly is a good bat, there are also character issues there. Also, while they accepted Austin Jackson for Granderson, they also were given other prospects. Tons of them. Granted they also gave up Edwin Jackson, who is a decent pitcher, but they still got more than just Austin Jackson.

 

Also, another thing about that, is they at first wanted Buchholz or Ellsbury for GRANDERSON. Granderson is a guy who hits a good amount of home runs, but has terrible platoon stats. I'm going to go ahead and say that if they play that game again, they'll have a similar price for Cabrera to Gonzalez.

[ORS]

BP tracks RBI opportunities.

 

Howard knocked in 19.2% of his opportunities. Pujols knocked in 18.5%. So, Howard was better at driving runners in. Part of that may be due to the fact that Pujols is more respected as a hitter with runners on, getting IBB'd 44 times compared to Howard's 8.

[BoSox21]

It also doesn't factor in pitchers pitching around Pujols more compared to Howard, who has a penchant for striking out

[Emmz]

Agreed, I think both a combination of that, and like ORS said, the IBB difference is pretty significant. Otherwise, I don't think Howard's the more productive guy, because the way I see it, Pujols not only is similar in driving in runs, but is also unarguably better at NOT creating outs. The way I see it, not creating outs gives your teammates an opportunity to create runs.

[Dipre]

BP tracks RBI opportunities.

 

Howard knocked in 19.2% of his opportunities. Pujols knocked in 18.5%. So, Howard was better at driving runners in. Part of that may be due to the fact that Pujols is more respected as a hitter with runners on, getting IBB'd 44 times compared to Howard's 8.

 

An to further drive the point home:

 

Pujols OPS with Runners on, RISP:

 

On: 1.107

 

SP: 1.253

 

Howard OPS with Runners on, RISP:

 

On: .968

 

SP:.983

 

As you can see, even though Howard both drove in more runs, and drove in a higher percentage of runs, Pujols was still more productive in RBI situations, the fact that he couldn't drive in more runs can be easily attributed to the fact that, as Bosox21 stated, pitchers will pitch around Pujols with men on base whenever they get the chance.

[Plumpamania]

Excellent posts here and a wonderful discussion to read. But now by moving away from the Ryan Howard versus Albert Pujols argument and going back onto track...

 

I believe a previous poster discussed Joe Mauer after the season/mid season as a pick up, which while being an excellent addition would never happen. However! Minnesota probably can't afford both Mauer and Morneau, what about looking into Morneau who is as productive as any of the 1B players mentioned in this thread. I'd imagine a Clay Buccholtz and Type B prospect(s) would be beneficial for the Twins who would look to repackage around Mauer with Delmon Young and company.

[Dipre]

Excellent posts here and a wonderful discussion to read. But now by moving away from the Ryan Howard versus Albert Pujols argument and going back onto track...

 

I believe a previous poster discussed Joe Mauer after the season/mid season as a pick up, which while being an excellent addition would never happen. However! Minnesota probably can't afford both Mauer and Morneau, what about looking into Morneau who is as productive as any of the 1B players mentioned in this thread. I'd imagine a Clay Buccholtz and Type B prospect(s) would be beneficial for the Twins who would look to repackage around Mauer with Delmon Young and company.

 

The problem is, that i believe they can afford both, for the following reasons:

 

1) He'll receive the same 14 million compensation from '10 to '14, which is quite reasonable given his production, and an amount they should be able to absorb, specially with no incremental value to it.

 

2) The new ballpark should allow them to raise their payroll to a much more respectable number.

 

3) The PR hit for getting rid of either of them would be enormous.

 

4) The main idea behind keeping Mauer is to field a competitive Twins team, and that would be greatly handicapped by dealing Morneau.

 

In my opinion, all signs indicate to them being able to retain them both and actually doing it.

[Plumpamania]

The problem is, that i believe they can afford both, for the following reasons:

 

1) He'll receive the same 14 million compensation from '10 to '14, which is quite reasonable given his production, and an amount they should be able to absorb, specially with no incremental value to it.

 

Just like they absorbed Johan Santana? Just saying.

 

2) The new ballpark should allow them to raise their payroll to a much more respectable number.

 

An outdoor ballpark in April and May in MN is a horrible idea and will probably attract less paying customers during those months. Looking into attendance numbers.. MN was #14 in Overall Attendance and #15 in MLB in % of Seats Filled. That's while paying customers are inside a dome w/o the weather conditions battering them. Not to mention that again playing outside in April/May in MN would not attract top FA's...

 

3) The PR hit for getting rid of either of them would be enormous.

 

Def on Mauer, but I was talking about obtaining Morneau. Still a hit but no where near the hit from Mauer..

 

4) The main idea behind keeping Mauer is to field a competitive Twins team, and that would be greatly handicapped by dealing Morneau.

 

Agreed it would be, however obtaining a Clay Buccholtz and either a Lars Anderson or Ryan Kalish would help out the Twins immensely in terms of payroll flexability. Def a HUGE hit, but something that might entice them, while the richest owner in baseball continues to screw his fans.

 

In my opinion, all signs indicate to them being able to retain them both and actually doing it.

 

Agreed, but it is something to look into...

[Dipre]

Just like they absorbed Johan Santana? Just saying

 

No new stadium, Santana is a pitcher.

 

 

 

An outdoor ballpark in April and May in MN is a horrible idea and will probably attract less paying customers during those months. Looking into attendance numbers.. MN was #14 in Overall Attendance and #15 in MLB in % of Seats Filled. That's while paying customers are inside a dome w/o the weather conditions battering them. Not to mention that again playing outside in April/May in MN would not attract top FA's...

 

It's not attendance, a new ballpark massively increases revenue streams due to marketing deals, advertisement opportunities, etc etc etc.

 

 

Def on Mauer, but I was talking about obtaining Morneau. Still a hit but no where near the hit from Mauer..

 

They could avoid that altogether by keeping both.

 

Agreed it would be, however obtaining a Clay Buccholtz and either a Lars Anderson or Ryan Kalish would help out the Twins immensely in terms of payroll flexability. Def a HUGE hit, but something that might entice them, while the richest owner in baseball continues to screw his fans.

 

Well Pohlad Sr is dead, for one, also, i firmly believe they'd rather hang onto Morneau, not to mention that a package of Bucholz, Anderson and Kalish probably doesn't get it done, i simply can't find a deal where both parties can meet the middle ground. Morneau has a reasonable contract, but not a bargain, so the leverage they have is minimal, but their valuing of Morneau isn't, if you think about it, they're better off keeping Mauer and Morneau, and i (this is personal opinion) firmly believe they'll have the payroll flexibility to pull it off once the new stadium opens.

[Emmz]

Just like they absorbed Johan Santana? Just saying.

 

 

 

An outdoor ballpark in April and May in MN is a horrible idea and will probably attract less paying customers during those months. Looking into attendance numbers.. MN was #14 in Overall Attendance and #15 in MLB in % of Seats Filled. That's while paying customers are inside a dome w/o the weather conditions battering them. Not to mention that again playing outside in April/May in MN would not attract top FA's...

 

 

 

Def on Mauer, but I was talking about obtaining Morneau. Still a hit but no where near the hit from Mauer..

 

 

 

Agreed it would be, however obtaining a Clay Buccholtz and either a Lars Anderson or Ryan Kalish would help out the Twins immensely in terms of payroll flexability. Def a HUGE hit, but something that might entice them, while the richest owner in baseball continues to screw his fans.

 

 

 

Agreed, but it is something to look into...

 

The Twins have said publicly that they're talking about expanding the payroll closer to about 90-100M, which would allow them to put down a massive deal for Mauer to remain with the Twins. Especially considering they're at around 65-70M right now.

 

Also, don't forget, Mauer has also stated that he wishes to be with the Twins, even if it means making less than he would elsewhere. The man's dedicated to Minnesota, because it's where he's played and lived his entire life. The guy's the hometown kid, and losing him would mean a huge hit for the Twins, in more than one way.

 

Well Pohlad Sr is dead, for one

 

No one here would know this, but actually, Pohlad's son is every bit the prick his dad was.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Woah trading Buchholz for Morneau??? The Twins would be wise to do that swap in a heart beat. I like Morneau but frankly in this field of 1B he's only slightly above average assuming a ~.870 OPS is about what he'll bring to the table.

[Palodios]

They can afford both, but the question is, do they want to. Mauer has 3 batting titles and saw a huge increase in his power numbers last year (28 home runs... 15 more than his previous best season). And he's only 26! And he's a catcher!

 

There aren't a whole lot of models to compare contracts to, but let's use Arod. Arod got his massive contract once in his early 30s. 27 million a year for ten years. Obviously Mauer doesn't have the HR/RBI numbers, but considering that he is younger, has an incredible batting average and plays the position with the weakest field of players, do you see him getting any less than 25 for 7-8 years? 25 million is a lot of money when minesota's payroll right now is 67. Plus the contract of Morneau and Joe Nathan? I don't see it being good for a team to have that much of its resources focused on three players.

 

However, I do see your point. Selling off either of your top two players when opening a new stadium could be a disastrous move.

[Dipre]

They can afford both, but the question is, do they want to. Mauer has 3 batting titles and saw a huge increase in his power numbers last year (28 home runs... 15 more than his previous best season). And he's only 26! And he's a catcher!

 

There aren't a whole lot of models to compare contracts to, but let's use Arod. Arod got his massive contract once in his early 30s. 27 million a year for ten years. Obviously Mauer doesn't have the HR/RBI numbers, but considering that he is younger, has an incredible batting average and plays the position with the weakest field of players, do you see him getting any less than 25 for 7-8 years? 25 million is a lot of money when minesota's payroll right now is 67. Plus the contract of Morneau and Joe Nathan? I don't see it being good for a team to have that much of its resources focused on three players.

 

However, I do see your point. Selling off either of your top two players when opening a new stadium could be a disastrous move.

 

20 AAV/7 years gets it done IMO.

[Palodios]

The thing is, not only is he the best offensive catcher out there, he's also a substantial upgrade at catcher OVER ANY CATCHER in just about ALL categories.

 

Mauer's stats versus the second and third best catchers' stats in the MLB for 2009.

 

BA .365 v .303 v .300

OBP .444 v .381 v .366

OPS 1.031 v .885 v .861

RBI 96 v 108 v 94 (he loses out to Vmart here)

Runs 94 v 88 v 74

HR 28 v 23 v 23

 

Were Mauer a 1st baseman, a 15-20 million contract would be reasonable, but the reason why his value is so much higher is because the lack of good catchers. At the same time, this means that trading for him would be much more expensive for prospects-- he'll definitely command Buch+Ells+ prospects, but if they sign him long term it would be more than worth it.

 

On a side note, VMart was in 2nd or 3rd of just about all those categories, I'm really surprised how little attention he gets that he was in the top 3 of the position.

[Dipre]

The thing is, not only is he the best offensive catcher out there, he's also a substantial upgrade at catcher in just about ALL categories.

Mauer's stats versus the second and third best catchers' stats in the MLB.

 

BA .365 v .303 v .300

OBP .444 v .381 v .366

OPS 1.031 v .885 v .861

RBI 96 v 108 v 94 (he loses out to Vmart here)

Runs 94 v 88 v 74

HR 28 v 23 v 23

 

Were Mauer a 1st baseman, a 15-20 million contract would be reasonable, but the reason why his value is so much higher is because the lack of good catchers. On a side note, VMart was in 2nd or 3rd of just about all those categories, I'm really surprised how little attention he gets that he was in the top 3 of the position.

 

V-Mart doesn't get as much attention because of his defensive struggles.

 

As for Mauer, i spoke of a 20 mill AAV because of what would be the incremental nature of the contract, i believe the deal would be structured in a way where he would begin with a salary around the 18 million dollar range and end around the 23 million dollar range.

[Wells]

No one here would know this, but actually, Pohlad's son is every bit the prick his dad was.

 

I'm aware.. and while I see Mauer's comments as sincere for the time he said them, we'll see next year whether he means it.. I would be shocked were he to stay in Minnesota and every Twins fan I come across (save for a very select few) fully expects Mauer to come back.. why? because he's a hometown kid? because he "says" he wants to stay in the TC? The way it gets talked about out here I'd think the Twins would have offered an extension by now if they were truly serious about wanting him here and paying him what he's worth.. it's not like the Twins are doing anything else this winter, so why not hammer it out now before the media and smarks really get their hands on it?

 

But anyone can say anything and I don't see Joe Mauer that much differently than anyone else where talking is concerned.. ******** walks.. money talks .. and I have a feeling a lot of Twins fans are going to be let down BIG TIME come next winter when he sees fat greenbacks luring him eastward..

 

I also just don't see him remaining in MN though simply because (as Emmz says) Pohlad Jr is.. a prick .. also a tightwad.. no way he stays unless he takes the discount.

 

and IMHO he won't.

[Palodios]

Well, I think we're going to have to disagree on that one. But its really irrelevent, the point is that its a lot of money for a team with a 60 million dollar budget

[Emmz]

No, there are tons of reasons, as Dipre pointed out before. A new stadium, expansion of payroll, Wanting to keep fans, rather than losing tons of them, etc. Joe Mauer is a franchise player, and expanding the payroll from 65M to 90-100M would mean we'd have enough, and then some.

[Emmz]

Well' date=' I think we're going to have to disagree on that one. But its really irrelevent, the point is that its a lot of money for a team with a 60 million dollar budget[/quote']

 

The team has publicly stated it is going to expand to around 90-100M next year. That's very respectable, and would definitely give them enough to keep him in Minnesota. He's one of the 3 best players in baseball, and in my opinion, the second only to Pujols.

[Palodios]

I wasn't aware that they planned to boost their payroll that much. If you look at their player salaries, it is incredibly top-heavy, and there is usually a trend for small-market teams to make big moves when that happens, but the payroll bump changes things.

[Plumpamania]

Emmz do you have a link to that statement for the expansion of payroll, I'd love to see the Twinkies finally get some green loving.

 

If they do expand, there is no way that Mauer is leaving. They'd be able to keep both Morneau and Mauer. And my idea is down the toilet. I'd love to see the Twins land a FA over Boston or NY, would finally bring a good team run by a decent GM in the AL Central that has $$ to spend (Yes I think Ken Williams is a moron).

[Keeper]

1. The Metrodome was maybe the worst park in all of baseball. Attendance will go up in the new stadium.

 

2. Mauer isn't going anywhere. Call it a hunch.

 

3. Buccholz for Morneau straight up would not be a good trade for the Twins, as Buccholz hasn't done jack yet.

 

4. Kenny Williams is not a moron. He's made some bad moves, but he's also made a lot of good moves. And, IMO, the good far outweigh the bad. Look at Jake Peavy. He got him for practically nothing.