Red Sox will never be the same

[example1]

Example' date=' I am very glad to see that the majority of your recent posts have dealt with using prospects to get stars. I have been saying that that is the primary purpose of the minor league player development system. It's very difficult for a system to develop impact stars. They are a very rare breed and an organization is lucky if they develop 1 in.10 years. Pedroia, Youkilis, and Ellsbury are all nice players, but not really impact players. Given Ellsbury's unbelievable speed that can turn close games, I think he has the best chance of developing into an impact offensive weapon. Papelbon is an impact player. He's the best closer in team history. Lester is a top of the rotation guy, but it took him 2 1/2 years at the major league level to develop into that kind of pitcher and he is still developing. With the solid core that the Sox have now, they need one or two big pieces to become the favorite to win a Championship. There's no time to waste trying to develop more kids into major league contributors.[/quote']

 

I'm saying this now because the Sox have retooled. If they didn't have Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Bard, Delcarman, etc., I would still be advocating for the conservative prospect-heavy approach.

 

Some big percentage of FAs (I don't know, maybe 85%?) are simply guys who have played in the league for 6 years. They do not, as FAs, automatically warrant the type of money they make. Some other percentage of them are truly elite players who can not be acquired any other way than signing huge contracts of making big trades.

 

The Sox literally have a player development machine right now. They've developed the guys listed above, they have a lot of talent in the system (Westmoreland, Kelly, Lin, Bowden, etc.,) and they also spent a lot in the draft to get guys like Renfroe and Younginer who will probably slide right into that highly-coveted prospect role. They should keep that line going.

 

While it is always true that prospects who can make it to the MLB level are almost inherently more valuable than a big percentage of their FA counterparts, it is also true that a team like the Sox can afford to ship 4-times the value of the MLB player in prospects if that MLB player is someone they truly covet, and those prospects are blocked in their progress anyway.

 

In other words, it is only because this team held its prospects, developed most of them appropriately and have cleared the way for Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury, etc., to be major parts of the team that the next generation of prospects can be used more for getting highly touted MLB players. I don't think they were wrong in the past for holding onto those guys because now a good portion of their team can be cost-controlled.

 

The process will need to wax and wane between retaining prospects for the future and using them for the present. They should never let their prospect pool get small again. This offseason should be one where they use some of their wealth in prospects to get guys that other teams simply cannot afford to acquire. It's an advantage of being the Red Sox right now and they should use it.

 

For now, at least, you and I are on the same page with regard to how prospects should be used. I'm glad they didn't move Pedroia and Ellsbury and Youkilis 4 years ago though.

[a700hitter]

I'm saying this now because the Sox have retooled. If they didn't have Pedroia, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Papelbon, Bard, Delcarman, etc., I would still be advocating for the conservative prospect-heavy approach.

 

Some big percentage of FAs (I don't know, maybe 85%?) are simply guys who have played in the league for 6 years. They do not, as FAs, automatically warrant the type of money they make. Some other percentage of them are truly elite players who can not be acquired any other way than signing huge contracts of making big trades.

 

The Sox literally have a player development machine right now. They've developed the guys listed above, they have a lot of talent in the system (Westmoreland, Kelly, Lin, Bowden, etc.,) and they also spent a lot in the draft to get guys like Renfroe and Younginer who will probably slide right into that highly-coveted prospect role. They should keep that line going.

 

While it is always true that prospects who can make it to the MLB level are almost inherently more valuable than a big percentage of their FA counterparts, it is also true that a team like the Sox can afford to ship 4-times the value of the MLB player in prospects if that MLB player is someone they truly covet, and those prospects are blocked in their progress anyway.

 

In other words, it is only because this team held its prospects, developed most of them appropriately and have cleared the way for Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury, etc., to be major parts of the team that the next generation of prospects can be used more for getting highly touted MLB players. I don't think they were wrong in the past for holding onto those guys because now a good portion of their team can be cost-controlled.

 

The process will need to wax and wane between retaining prospects for the future and using them for the present. They should never let their prospect pool get small again. This offseason should be one where they use some of their wealth in prospects to get guys that other teams simply cannot afford to acquire. It's an advantage of being the Red Sox right now and they should use it.

 

For now, at least, you and I are on the same page with regard to how prospects should be used. I'm glad they didn't move Pedroia and Ellsbury and Youkilis 4 years ago though.

You panic when I point out that we are in agreement, and you try to distance yourself from it. My stated position has always been where you are right now. The FO should keep the best prospects and develop them if they are not blocked at the ML level. The rest are trading chips to be used to bring in the best ML talent available. Lately they have been developing guys for the major league club, but now they seem to be ready to move other prospects to improve the major league club. This is where I have been all along. The only difference is that I would have done both simultaneously. So, either you have come around to my philosophy or if this where you have always been, I have been there all along. We may have debated which prospects were ready, but the philosophy is the same. Sorry about that. I know that you hate when I agree with you and you will attempt to qualify it somehow, but I agree with your stated philosophy 100%

[example1]

You panic when I point out that we are in agreement' date=' and you try to distance yourself from it. My stated position has always been where you are right now. The FO should keep the best prospects and develop them if they are not blocked at the ML level. The rest are trading chips to be used to bring in the best ML talent available. Lately they have been developing guys for the major league club, but now they seem to be ready to move other prospects to improve the major league club. This is where I have been all along. The only difference is that I would have done both simultaneously. So, either you have come around to my philosophy or if this where you have always been, I have been there all along. We may have debated which prospects were ready, but the philosophy is the same. Sorry about that. I know that you hate when I agree with you and you will attempt to qualify it somehow, but I agree with your stated philosophy 100%[/quote']

 

It's kind of like filling out your match.com profile and getting a hideous woman as your best match. Run away as fast as possible.

 

:lol:

 

I'm totally kidding.

 

I think we've probably always been on the same page in terms of the usefulness of prospects. I'm not sure we always agree on which guys are the MLB caliber prospects and which aren't. I, for one, still have hope for Jed Lowrie and Michael Bowden and a few others that other people have soured on.

 

In any case, yes, we probably agree. To me, it is vital that this team have a number of spots filled by cost controlled players because that gives them the financial flexability to field a team that can compete with the likes of the Yankees at a fraction of the payroll. I know you've said in the past that you don't really care about the cost/value of players (WARP/$$), but I think it is always a factor.

[ORS]

That's a rather blanket statement from a700 concerning the use of prospects in the trade market. Willingness to entertain moving some prospects for some very specific players does not signal a paradigm shift. As always, each proposed transaction has its own merits, and whether a person looks favorably on the proposal will signal one thing only, that they think the merits of that trade are worth the cost. It does not signal a change in guiding philosophy.

 

Furthermore, how someone can call Youkilis and Pedroia non-impact players with a straight face escapes me. If they aren't then there are only about 10 of them in all of baseball, and a large majority of the teams do not have them.

[example1]

That's a rather blanket statement from a700 concerning the use of prospects in the trade market. Willingness to entertain moving some prospects for some very specific players does not signal a paradigm shift. As always' date=' each proposed transaction has its own merits, and whether a person looks favorably on the proposal will signal one thing only, that they think the merits of that trade are worth the cost. It does not signal a change in guiding philosophy. [/quote']

 

Amen. Though I don't think a700 is disagreeing with me or calling me a paradigm-shifter.

 

Furthermore, how someone can call Youkilis and Pedroia non-impact players with a straight face escapes me. If they aren't then there are only about 10 of them in all of baseball, and a large majority of the teams do not have them.

 

He and I disagree about this, though I didn't mention it above. The REASON I'm all for trading some prospects now for potentially more expensive guys is BECAUSE Pedroia and Youkils and Lester and Papelbon (and to a lesser extent, Ellsbury) are impact players. If they weren't then I would have little interest in trading away OTHER potential impact players for current impact players.

 

Lon story short, take the impact players we have, add established other impact players, and this team can win currently. If they continue to wait and see then they will likely be watching the Yankees win more WS in the next few years.

[Keeper]

Furthermore' date=' how someone can call Youkilis and Pedroia non-impact players with a straight face escapes me. If they aren't then there are only about 10 of them in all of baseball, and a large majority of the teams do not have them.[/quote']

 

This.

[a700hitter]

Furthermore' date=' how someone can call Youkilis and Pedroia non-impact players with a straight face escapes me. If they aren't then there are only about 10 of them in all of baseball, and a large majority of the teams do not have them.[/quote']I think there are only about 10 impact players in the game. When I talk about an impact player, I am talking about the elite of the elite-- the guys who get HOF consideration after their careers. Youk and Pedroia are really good players, and they are great to have on the team because their determination rubs off on everyone else, but they fall short of the group that I have in mind. I'm not sure there are even 10. Tex is that kind of player, Manny, ARod, and Pujols too. That's the class of player I was referring too. No disrespect to Youk and Pedroia, but they are not in that class. I said that Ellsbury had the potential to be an impact player, because I think there is an outside chance that if he became more consistent and developed some power that he could dominate games like Rickey Henderson used to dominate games.

[Dipre]

I think there are only about 10 impact players in the game. When I talk about an impact player' date=' I am talking about the elite of the elite-- the guys who get HOF consideration after their careers. Youk and Pedroia are really good players, and they are great to have on the team because their determination rubs off on everyone else, but they fall short of the group that I have in mind. I'm not sure there are even 10. Tex is that kind of player, Manny, ARod, and Pujols too. That's the class of player I was referring too. No disrespect to Youk and Pedroia, but they are not in that class. I said that Ellsbury had the potential to be an impact player, because I think there is an outside chance that if he became more consistent and developed some power that he could dominate games like Rickey Henderson used to dominate games.[/quote']

 

Dustin Pedroia is an impact player on both sides of the ball.

 

He's a top 5 second baseman.

[Lester82]

Furthermore, how someone can call Youkilis and Pedroia non-impact players with a straight face escapes me

 

It's sort of a Yankee fan-like thing to say that. I read a Yankee fan's post today somewhere saying that same thing about Youk/Pedroia. I just don't get it. I guess this stuff wasn't said about MVP Pedroia, Youk after 2007 or '08. But now the Red Sox are really down, and people knock ya when you're down... bloom's off the rose of the Red Sox offense.

 

But Pedroia and Youk are impact players.

[Lester82]

"then they will likely be watching the Yankees win more WS in the next few years."

 

I'll wait till they even win this year's World Series.

[example1]

"then they will likely be watching the Yankees win more WS in the next few years."

 

I'll wait till they even win this year's World Series.

 

Great. Thanks for the update.

 

They are the best team in baseball. There is little question about that. If they add Jason Bay or Matt Holliday they will be better. Whether or not they win the WS really isn't relevant. The point is that the Sox may be watching the Yankees ahead of them for years to come if they don't do something now.

[example1]

I think there are only about 10 impact players in the game. When I talk about an impact player' date=' I am talking about the elite of the elite-- the guys who get HOF consideration after their careers. Youk and Pedroia are really good players, and they are great to have on the team because their determination rubs off on everyone else, but they fall short of the group that I have in mind. I'm not sure there are even 10. Tex is that kind of player, Manny, ARod, and Pujols too. That's the class of player I was referring too. No disrespect to Youk and Pedroia, but they are not in that class. I said that Ellsbury had the potential to be an impact player, because I think there is an outside chance that if he became more consistent and developed some power that he could dominate games like Rickey Henderson used to dominate games.[/quote']

 

I'm just going to go on record right now and say that I think Pedroia will be considered for the HOF by the time all is said and done. He's a 2-time All Star, he's won an MVP and a Rookie of the Year, and he's been in the league for 3 seasons.

 

I think Youkilis is an impact bat. He was a late bloomer, but the past few years he's been as productive as just about any player in baseball. Also a 2 time AS, in the running for MVP last year and probably this year too (though no chance of winning it). Whether or not he's ultimately a HOF'r, he's an impact player.

[a700hitter]

I'm just going to go on record right now and say that I think Pedroia will be considered for the HOF by the time all is said and done. He's a 2-time All Star, he's won an MVP and a Rookie of the Year, and he's been in the league for 3 seasons.

 

I think Youkilis is an impact bat. He was a late bloomer, but the past few years he's been as productive as just about any player in baseball. Also a 2 time AS, in the running for MVP last year and probably this year too (though no chance of winning it). Whether or not he's ultimately a HOF'r, he's an impact player.

I didn't say that they miss the elite group by much, and I've learned never to under-estimate Pedroia, so I wouldn't be shocked if he made the Hall. I'm just considering a smaller group.

 

I don't see the opportunity to get such a player this off-season. Gonzalez may be in that class already, and he certainly has the potential to be squarely within that group very soon. On the other side of the ball, Halladay and King Felix are the only two that I see that could be available. Players like Matt Holliday and John Lackey are very good, but not in the group that I am talking about. ORS is right that very few teams have one of those guys. The Yankees have 3 of them (ARod, Tex and CC). I'd like to see the Sox snag 1 or 2 of them and add it to what we already have.

[TheKilo]

I think you're way off here. As a Yankee fan, I feared the Drug Duo, Ortiz and Manny. Those two guys alone changed the complexion of every game.

 

Now who do you have that scares someone? Youkilis...is a very good player, but he can't hold a candle to Manny or Ortiz in their injecting days.

 

Truth be told...the Red Sox remind me in a way of the old Yankees...a lot of solid, good players. However, they aren't as good as the Yankee core [offensively] and none of them were the go-to guys.

 

Manny and Ortiz were the pulse of the team, and when they ceased being dominant, so did your team.

 

Really? Youkilis isn't better than Tino f***ing Martinez, and JD Drew isn't better than Paul O'Neill? Yeah, I know he punched a few water coolers, but holy s*** there might not be another player more overrated than Paul O'Neill.

 

The Yankees won because they had awesome pitching and a solid offense. The Sox have the same.

 

Stop talking out of your ass.

[TheKilo]

Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are among the top 30 players in all of baseball. People who call them anything but impact players are the same people who question whether or not Jason Bay can hit cleanup.

[Dipre]

Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are among the top 30 players in all of baseball. People who call them anything but impact players are the same people who question whether or not Jason Bay can hit cleanup.

 

I question whether Jason Bay can hit cleanup.

 

I also say Pedey is probably a future HOF candidate.

 

Got a problem with that, Stupendous one?

[TheKilo]

Yes. It's your whole argument about Bay not being able to hit cleanup. It's asinine.

[Dipre]

Yes. It's your whole argument about Bay not being able to hit cleanup. It's asinine.

 

Bitch, please.

 

He's able to hit cleanup, but there are obviously better options.

 

To avoid the confrontational ********, i asked you the following question:

 

If you had AGon and Bay here, who would you hit 4th?

 

I stated he's a bit vulnerable and not very aggresive, just like Youk. But if he re-signs and he's what we have, then he's the cleanup hitter.

[TheKilo]

The question is moot because the Sox won't sign both. Just because you wouldn't hit Bay 4th in that specific instance does not take anything away from the offensive season Bay had, or the offensive player he is.

 

IOW, it's not his f***ing fault he didn't hit 4th in this lineup.

[Dipre]

The question is moot because the Sox won't sign both. Just because you wouldn't hit Bay 4th in that specific instance does not take anything away from the offensive season Bay had, or the offensive player he is.

 

IOW, it's not his f***ing fault he didn't hit 4th in this lineup.

 

OMG.

 

Agree to disagree then.

[TheKilo]

OMG.

 

Agree to disagree then.

 

What is it about Jason Bay's offensive season that tells you he can't hit fourth? The over .900 OPS, leading all AL OF regulars? The 36 HRs? The 115+ RBIs?

 

Please, enlighten me.

[Dipre]

What is it about Jason Bay's offensive season that tells you he can't hit fourth? The over .900 OPS, leading all AL OF regulars? The 36 HRs? The 115+ RBIs?

 

Please, enlighten me.

 

You can say i'm an idiot or whatever because i can't back it up with stats and i'm not gonna say "Watch the gamezzzzz" like a douche.

 

All i have to back me up is the fact that he's pretty vulnerable and not aggresive enough to hit fourth on a team like this.

[a700hitter]

Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis are among the top 30 players in all of baseball. People who call them anything but impact players are the same people who question whether or not Jason Bay can hit cleanup.

I don't that they are in the top 30. Youkilis just misses being a top 10 guy.

[example1]

What is it about Jason Bay's offensive season that tells you he can't hit fourth? The over .900 OPS, leading all AL OF regulars? The 36 HRs? The 115+ RBIs?

 

Please, enlighten me.

 

I think this question is actually a combination of how the Sox run their team, and what they value.

 

Bay had the ability to hit 4th on nearly any team. The Sox prefered to have Youkilis hit 4th. Youks had 28 points in OBP on Bay, and 11 points in SLG. In OPS Bay (.921) vs. Youkilis (.961) had a pretty significant difference.

 

There are 19 players who put up a higher OPS than Bay. Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez are all on that list. Each had an OBP over .400, and each had a better SLG. Those are the names I have seen discussed as at the top of the "upgrade" list for this lineup.

 

I don't think anyone is saying that Bay can't hit cleanup relative to all the other options out there, but compared to Youkilis and the three other offensive names people are throwing out most often, Bay isn't quite there. Neither was Holliday this year, but I imagine that in future years, with a big contract and playing in Fenway with this lineup, he could be very quickly.

 

The thing we can all agree on is that having guys like Youkilis (and Bay if he sticks around) means that they could potentially be one of the best offensive supporting casts ever if that really big hitter comes along.

[BigPapiEnFuego]

You can say i'm an idiot or whatever because i can't back it up with stats and i'm not gonna say "Watch the gamezzzzz" like a douche.

 

All i have to back me up is the fact that he's pretty vulnerable and not aggresive enough to hit fourth on a team like this.

 

This.

 

 

He seems to go through many slumps, a few prolonged

[Dojji]

You're describing a lot of the best hitters in the league guys. Even among high-profile power hitters, none of the complaints you're mentioning are unique to Bay.

[Dipre]

You're describing a lot of the best hitters in the league guys. Even among high-profile power hitters' date=' none of the complaints you're mentioning are unique to Bay.[/quote']

 

LOL.

[Dojji]

Well, you guys just as much as said that all you're going on is emotion. If you're just going to rant on a hitter for having slumps, heck, even Pujols has slumps. Unless you bring up something we can actually quantify this whole thing is just an excuse to vent a hundred illogical reasons to bring in Holliday over Bay.

[Dipre]

Well' date=' you guys just as much as said that all you're going on is emotion. If you're just going to rant on a hitter for having slumps, heck, even Pujols has slumps. Unless you bring up something we can actually quantify this whole thing is just an excuse to vent a hundred illogical reasons to bring in Holliday over Bay.[/quote']

 

Can you really read?

 

Honest question.

 

The 4 hitter argument goes against both Holliday and Bay.

 

Even if they brought Bay i wouldn't want him hitting 4th.

 

Please read the arguments before you hit the submit button, k?

[Dojji]

Well it better be about Holliday because otherwise it's an exercise in utter pointlessness.

 

You can't buy what other teams aren't selling.

 

Unless there's something to suggest not just that we're interested in a player but that his team is actively interested in dealing him, there just is not going to be anything happening.