Bay vs. Holliday

[example1]

There seems to be agreement on this board that we should acquire one of these two players during this FA period. I thought I would break discussion about these particular FA's away from the overall offseason thread, for easier reference.

 

Some questions I would love to see addressed:

 

1. What are the main statistical differences between the two players?

 

2. Looking at their numbers what do we learn about Matt Holliday as a hitter compared to Jason Bay as a hitter?

 

3. What are the costs and benefits of signing one over the other, both immediately and in planning for this team's future?

 

 

 

I've written about it elsewhere, but I think Holliday is the better play here. I won't be shocked if it turns out the Sox really like him and would love to build their offense around the 2nd part of his career.

[Lester82]

Agreeance.

 

I too just think Holliday is the better hitter.

 

Bay went from a bad park for hitters in the N.L. where he was not surrounded by much with the Pirates, to getting to go to the Red Sox in a much better lineup and park. Of course it benifited him as a hitter.

 

Holliday went from offense haven Coors Field to Oakland initially, where he would be surrounded by little and in a massive pitcher's park. He then got a boost by going to the Cardinals and being with Pujols.

 

But all in all, I think the Red Sox may view Holliday as better hitting talent than Bay. Really, Bay had months of being a non-factor for the Sox in the middle of the season, while having some trouble when not being fed fastballs.

[Keeper]

Bay isn't the problem for the Sox.

 

But if we're going to compare the two, despite his blunder in the NLDS, Holliday is definitely the better outfielder. Holliday is also a better pure hitter and gets on base at a pretty good clip. But then Bay also gets on base at a good clip. They can both steal bases. They're about the same age; Holliday is a little younger.

 

If I had to choose between the two, I would say Holliday is the better overall player. However, I'm not sure who would come cheaper.

[Rich1083]

I'd rather have Bay. Holliday may be a better hitter, but Bay has been with us now for a year and a half and he really hasn't let us down, aside from that little slump mid-season.

[Dojji]

Holliday is the better player, BUT until free agency begins we should be bending all our efforts to re-signing Bay anyway.

 

My reasoning is simple. We still have Jason Bay as a captive audience until free agency starts. It makes no sense at all not to make use of that. If he wants to test the waters and files for free agency, then the two are on equal standing and you should probably go more after Holliday. But don't ignore Bay even then, he's a huge asset in left field even if you accept the premise that Holliday's better.

 

Realistically I'd go hard after both. I don't think there's any particular reason to make the call as if we can only have one. Sure it's highly improbable to actually GET both players, but if you go hard after both the chance of getting at least one increases IMHO.

 

The worst case scenario here would be going after Holliday, losing him, going back after Bay, losing him. There's 29 other teams and many of them could use either guy and many of them have money to spend.

 

BTW I have a secondary reason for preferring Jason Bay. Bay is not a Boras client.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lets drop the "he downt wike da presha" argument. These guys are going to take money and yrs over environment and if its close, then they will go with the better environment for them.

 

Lets start with Holliday:

He turns 30 this offseason

His career line is .318/.387/.545 for a .932OPS

His 2009 line was .313/.394/.515 for a .909OPS

 

His 2009 line was brought down by a dismal experience in the expanse in Oakland while languishing in last place. Since being infused into a playoff race, he put up a .353/.419/.604 line for a 1.023OPS.

 

he can play both OF positions well (minus that one big error) and brings speed with his other skills (80SBs in 5 seasons).

 

So, this guy is a top tier performer who brings 5 tools to the table and is entering the prime of his career. The last guy with his resume at a young age to hit the market was Teixeira, and you saw what he fetched. JD Drew prior to his deal with Boston was a similar performer, albeit his exodus from the dodgers and his durability made his situation a bit more dicey.

 

Magglio Ordonez was also very similar when he signed, but durability was also an issue since he was coming off an experimental knee surgery. He signed for 5yr 75 mil with 2 options that will make it a 7yr 105mil contract, and both options are likely to vest.

 

So, if we consider JD Drew as the low point as Drew is the cheapest of the three and had issues come up on his physicial, then 5yrs 70 mil should be the low point. Then consider that Holliday will be younger than both Ordonez and Drew, AND he has much more speed and has no durability issues and you are probably looking at Ordonez's AAV being the minimum salary here.

 

Then consider one other confounder, the Soriano signing in 2006. He signed for 8yrs at 136mil at the same age. Now Soriano was more of a speed threat, but is much worse in the OF and has been a worse hitter (OPS wise) than Holliday.

 

So, where does that leave us? Tex is the better player when compared to Holliday mostly due to Tex's insane patience, better power, switch hitting, and age (he was a yr and a half younger at the time of his FA compared to Holliday's).

 

So maybe Tex's contract is a ceiling at 8yrs 180million dollars. I would say that JD Drew's 5yrs 70 mil is a starting point AAV wise. And Ordonez's 7yrs 105mil contract and Soriano's 8yr 136million dollar contract are good middle points. I would have to say that Boras is going to get 7 yrs out of someone with a likely vesting option for an 8th since he is only 29 (turns 30 in 3 months). So lets say that, to sign Holliday, the sox would need to offer 7yrs $112mil with a vesting option for 18 mil on yr 8. Would that be too much? Too little? I dunno, but that is where I put his figure at.

 

Sorry for the double post, it fits better here

[jacksonianmarch]

As for Jason Bay, lets look at the tale of the tape

 

Will be 31 for the majority of 2010, so consider 31 to be his age

Career line- .280/.376/.519 for a .895OPS

2009 line- .267/.384/.537 for a .921OPS

 

He's very durable, playing in over 150 games 4 out of the last 5 yrs (2007 he played 145 games). He plays below average D in LF, but at home, he plays the wall well and is a serviceable fielder. He isnt an option in RF anymore due to his lack of range. He actually does steal bases, albeit this is more about his baserunning awareness than pure speed.

 

In terms of comparisons on FA markets, you are going to see the same kinds of comparisons with Holliday. Bay has not been as good of a hitter over his career, although if you subtract Bay's dismal 2007, they are really close. Holliday is a yr and a half younger, has more speed, plays better D and can play both corner OF positions well. So, Holliday's price tag should be higher, but it shouldnt be astronomically higher

 

So, if I put Holliday's contract at 7yrs 112 mil, or an AAV of 16 mil per season with a vesting option for 18 mil, then you should probably subtract 1-2 mil per yr from that contract and subtract 1 yr. So, for Bay, I would put his contract at 6yrs 90mil with a 7th yr vesting option for 17 million dollars. That puts him ahead of JD Drew's contract and right at the AAV of Ordonez's contract.

[example1]

Those are both useful posts Jacko.

 

The contract I was thinking about for Holliday would be shorter on years, higher on AAV: 18m, 19m, 20m, 19m, 18m, + 18m option, maybe two options seasons. That's 5 years/94m. A very nice contract, right up Boras's ally.

 

I think that you're right that Teixeira and Drew (and the others you mentioned, plus probably Carlos Lee) are good comparables.

 

I also think people are likely to downplay Holliday's impact as a bat and not understand if the Sox go out and pursue him really aggressively. My theory is that once he's very comfortable and very well-paid, Holliday can do in Fenway basically what he did in Colorado. The pitching and air will be more difficult, the park will play well to his strengths, and the lineup and culture of OBP will boost his production.

 

At first I was thinking it would be foolish not to pursue Bay aggressively, since he's safer. But the more I thought about it, the more obvious it seems that Holliday, as the better player in the same position, should be the one they go after as their next franchise contract.

 

The Red Sox are not a team that should shy away from making bold moves, and I think getting Holliday with Bay sitting there would be bold and impressive and would ultimately help their longterm goals...

 

Again, if they got Holliday then that would mean that going into next season they would have improved from the 2008 team by upgrading Varitek to Victor Martinez, and replaced old Manny with in-his-prime Matt Holliday. That's as good as anyone could have asked for, isn't it?

 

The move makes too much sense, and it saves them prospects to address pitching or Hanley or, if they really want, Adrian Gonzalez.

[Emmz]

I'd say Holliday is certainly the better overall player, but let's remember this; We absolutely have to get someone to be his Albert Pujols. Look at his stats from before and after the trade; there's a significant improvement in overall offensive production after being traded to the Cards.

[Gom]

All well and good, Jacko, but I think the contract values are a little high. This is in a really bad economic climate, so when you see players like Abreu sign for 5 million, how do you justify 16 for Bay and 17-18 for Holliday?

 

You don't, my good man.

[example1]

I'd say Holliday is certainly the better overall player' date=' but let's remember this; We absolutely have to get someone to be his Albert Pujols. Look at his stats from before and after the trade; there's a significant improvement in overall offensive production after being traded to the Cards.[/quote']

 

I think Holliday is good enough to be that guy, especially if he's surrounded with Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and JD Drew next season.

[Emmz]

Those are both useful posts Jacko.

 

The contract I was thinking about for Holliday would be shorter on years, higher on AAV: 18m, 19m, 20m, 19m, 18m, + 18m option, maybe two options seasons. That's 5 years/94m. A very nice contract, right up Boras's ally.

 

I think that you're right that Teixeira and Drew (and the others you mentioned, plus probably Carlos Lee) are good comparables.

 

I also think people are likely to downplay Holliday's impact as a bat and not understand if the Sox go out and pursue him really aggressively. My theory is that once he's very comfortable and very well-paid, Holliday can do in Fenway basically what he did in Colorado. The pitching and air will be more difficult, the park will play well to his strengths, and the lineup and culture of OBP will boost his production.

 

At first I was thinking it would be foolish not to pursue Bay aggressively, since he's safer. But the more I thought about it, the more obvious it seems that Holliday, as the better player in the same position, should be the one they go after as their next franchise contract.

 

The Red Sox are not a team that should shy away from making bold moves, and I think getting Holliday with Bay sitting there would be bold and impressive and would ultimately help their longterm goals...

 

Again, if they got Holliday then that would mean that going into next season they would have improved from the 2008 team by upgrading Varitek to Victor Martinez, and replaced old Manny with in-his-prime Matt Holliday. That's as good as anyone could have asked for, isn't it?

 

The move makes too much sense, and it saves them prospects to address pitching or Hanley or, if they really want, Adrian Gonzalez.

 

I think Adrian Gonzalez would complete my above statement. He's no Albert Pujols, no one really is, but he is an offensive force in his own right. I too think that Holliday makes great sense.

[jacksonianmarch]

All well and good, Jacko, but I think the contract values are a little high. This is in a really bad economic climate, so when you see players like Abreu sign for 5 million, how do you justify 16 for Bay and 17-18 for Holliday?

 

You don't, my good man.

 

The Yankees will be another dark horse in the negotiations since they have both a DH spot and a LF spot up for grabs. So even if NY is only in it to drive up the price, I have to believe that they will drive up the price. And even with the economic climate we are in, baseball had another record breaking season in terms of attendance. And while some ballclubs are going into chapter 11 (the cubs and the dbacks), a lot of the bigger market teams are thriving. So no, I do not think his value will be hindered by the economy, cause as the saying always says, it takes just one team to make that offer.

 

And I do think that the Mets are a serious contender for both. They need two OF positions filled with Beltran in CF and s*** at the corners. i wouldnt be surprised if they honestly and truly made a run at both players.

[Emmz]

I think Holliday is good enough to be that guy' date=' especially if he's surrounded with Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis, David Ortiz and JD Drew next season.[/quote']

 

Yeah, true, but honestly I think going after an Adrian Gonzalez makes it even better. Every Don needs his Enforcer.

[CanadianSox]

Who is to say that Holliday is even an option. As I see it, if I was the Cards I would be signing him before anyone else has a chance to get their hands on him.

[example1]

Yeah' date=' true, but honestly I think going after an Adrian Gonzalez makes it even better. Every Don needs his Enforcer.[/quote']

 

The Sox were ready to trade a ton of prospects to get Adrian Gonzalez... and then move Gonzalez to Seattle for Felix Hernandez. I bet they still are.

 

If they're going to deal prospects (see: Buchholz, Clay) they need to get pitching back, and that pitching needs to be big enough to support the team for a long time. Lester + Felix for most of their careers would do just that.

 

Having Hollidays improved production over Bay, PLUS having Victor Martinez for a full season, PLUS having Dice-K back to at least 2007 form, would give this team a bunch more wins in 2010.

 

After 2010 I believe the Sox lose a good number of declining players (ortiz and lowell, specifically), but Pujols, Mauer and Prince Fielder are all slated to be FAs. The Sox could break the bank for one of them and THEN have the lineup you covet (correctly so, IMO).

 

After 2010 they would have a core of the team with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Holliday, Drew and probably another big FA. That's really solid and would be sustainable moving forward.

[example1]

Who is to say that Holliday is even an option. As I see it' date=' if I was the Cards I would be signing him before anyone else has a chance to get their hands on him.[/quote']

 

Scott Boras doesn't usually operate that way, does he?

[CanadianSox]

Scott Boras doesn't usually operate that way' date=' does he?[/quote']

 

True but you never know. Look what happened last year when he tried that. Granted Manny was basically only wanted by one team but still. Not sure if anyone else he's represents hasn't hit the open market (big names).

[jacksonianmarch]

this is a good article on the landmine that could be Jason Bay. Interesting read

 

http://ussmariner.com/2009/10/08/sorry-jason-we-dont-want-you/

 

Sorry, Jason, We Don’t Want You

Dave · October 8, 2009 at 9:43 pm · Filed Under Mariners

Over the last few years, I’ve done an off-season series called “free agent land mines”, where I laid out players to avoid giving large contracts to who just weren’t going to be worth it. Because it was just that kind of organization, the M’s kept picking guys off the list and targeting them for acquisition, throwing big money at guys like Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva. Thank God those days are gone.

 

With a new regime in place that actually knows how to build a baseball team, I don’t really feel compelled to do a land mine post this year. This front office knows how to evaluate talent, and I have no fear that they’re going to go toss a bunch of money on a long term deal at an overrated aging veteran who has some mythical quality they think they need. A new day, a new way, and all that.

 

However, I did want to single out one guy whose name keeps popping up for a couple of reasons – the main one being that he’s local and still lives in the area. That he can hit is a nice bonus, since the M’s were last in the league in offense and all that, and for some people, the recipe of good hitter + from Seattle = guy we should be interested in. However, it’s a bad idea in a lot of ways. No matter how many people try to convince you otherwise, just say no to Jason Bay.

 

He’s 31 years old, right-handed, and not really much an outfielder anymore. He has classic old player skills. In fact, he’s eerily reminiscent to some other free agent the M’s blew a lot of money on.

 

Bay, 2009: .267/.384/.537, 15% BB%, 30% K%, .269 ISO, -13.9 UZR, +3.4 wins

Sexson, 2003: .272/.379/.548, 14% BB%, 25% K%, .276 ISO, -9.6 UZR, +3.9 wins

 

The numbers are from Sexson’s last healthy season before the M’s signed him – you’ll recall that he missed most of his contract year with a shoulder problem, but then went right back to being the player he was before the injury. Interestingly, Sexson was actually headed into his age 29 season when the M’s signed him, so Bay’s actually even further into his decline phase than Richie was. Richie made better contact than Bay does, if you can believe that. Their power levels were similar, and they both offset the low batting averages by drawing a bunch of walks.

 

In terms of skillsets, they’re basically the same player – quality (but aging) power hitters who don’t fit the park and play defense like a DH. These are the types of players that make the worst free agent signings. Power is overvalued in the market, while defense is undervalued, so sluggers almost always get paid more than they’re worth. Toss in the fact that this skillset doesn’t age well, and you have a recipe for disaster.

 

Even setting aside the presence of players like Michael Saunders (and, to a lesser extent, Dustin Ackley), the Mariners should have absolutely no interest in Jason Bay. He might be interested in playing closer to home, but that’s just too bad – I wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole.

 

Some team is going to give him a hefty contract this winter. Thankfully, it’s not going to be the Mariners. After making a huge mistake on this player type five years ago, the M’s aren’t going to do that again.

 

[example1]

this is a good article on the landmine that could be Jason Bay. Interesting read

 

http://ussmariner.com/2009/10/08/sorry-jason-we-dont-want-you/

 

Who is the quality DH that the Mariners are coveting over Bay? That's right, they don't have one. Not touching a guy like Bay with a 10 foot poll, without knowing his asking price or availability to play OF is foolish.

[jacksonianmarch]

I, for one, think he is well worth it in the AL. But I figure I should put some differing perspectives on here. Hell, I'd take Bay in LF at the stadium

[Lester82]

Holliday in 2010

[Spudboy]

A friend of mine suggested Crawford in left with either Gonzalez or Fielder at 1st.

 

I kind of like the idea. Better D in left with another 50-60 SB, and a true big power bat at 1st.

[Dojji]

Even if the Rays are willing to contemplate trading Crawford, which is doubtful in its own right, they will NOT trade him to Boston (or for that matter, to NYY)

[Dipre]

Even if the Rays are willing to contemplate trading Crawford' date=' which is doubtful in its own right, they will NOT trade him to Boston (or for that matter, to NYY)[/quote']

 

The option has to be picked up please.

[TheKilo]

Holliday is the better player, BUT until free agency begins we should be bending all our efforts to re-signing Bay anyway.

 

My reasoning is simple. We still have Jason Bay as a captive audience until free agency starts. It makes no sense at all not to make use of that. If he wants to test the waters and files for free agency, then the two are on equal standing and you should probably go more after Holliday. But don't ignore Bay even then, he's a huge asset in left field even if you accept the premise that Holliday's better.

 

Realistically I'd go hard after both. I don't think there's any particular reason to make the call as if we can only have one. Sure it's highly improbable to actually GET both players, but if you go hard after both the chance of getting at least one increases IMHO.

 

The worst case scenario here would be going after Holliday, losing him, going back after Bay, losing him. There's 29 other teams and many of them could use either guy and many of them have money to spend.

 

BTW I have a secondary reason for preferring Jason Bay. Bay is not a Boras client.

 

If Bay's agent is worth a damn there's no way Bay signs before the FA period. Do you think before you hit the submit button?

[TheKilo]

Who is to say that Holliday is even an option. As I see it' date=' if I was the Cards I would be signing him before anyone else has a chance to get their hands on him.[/quote']

 

Scott. Boras.

[TheKilo]

As far as the whole Holliday v Bay debate, I think that Holliday is the better player and will be the better fit, but I fear he's going to command a Teixeira-like contract and Boras will force the team that signs him to overpay for him.

 

I don't think either sign with their respective teams during the exclusive window, as both know the value of their contracts could be tied to the other.

 

I'd like to see the Sox add Holliday personally, but Bay might be the safer play because Boras can drag out negotiations to the bitter end, and if the Yankees or another team swoop in and drastically overpay for Holliday/Bay the Sox could be caught with their pants down, a la MT last season.

 

They need one to play LF next season. I don't like the idea of a Drew-Ellsbury-Reddick outfield come opening day.

[Dipre]

If Bay's agent is worth a damn there's no way Bay signs before the FA period. Do you think before you hit the submit button?

 

This.

[Dojji]

If Bay's agent is worth a damn there's no way Bay signs before the FA period.

 

It'd be unlikely. You're overselling your point at "no way" though.