Dice K or Clay in Game 3

[a700hitter]

I'm going with Dice K, regardless of what Clay does in his next start.

[TheKilo]

lol

 

lol

 

lol

 

 

lol

 

 

 

 

 

lol

[Cocos Disciples]

Clay.

[Dojji]

I'm going with Dice K' date=' regardless of what Clay does in his next start.[/quote']

 

Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyeah

 

Clay.

[suns]

Clay.

[suns]

Where does Dice-K go if he doesn't start?

[example1]

You know, I'm actually going with Dice-K on this one if he can come out and have one more good start.

[a700hitter]

I would have gone with Dice K before tonight's debacle. Now, I wouldn't even agonize about it, unless Dice K looks like s*** in his last start. In the playoffs, I think experience is very important. Schilling won 3 games in '07 with his shoulder hanging by a thread and topping out at 90 mph. An experienced guy with poise is a real commodity, when everyone is as tight as a drum.

[a700hitter]

You know' date=' I'm actually going with Dice-K on this one if he can come out and have one more good start.[/quote']So far you and me are standing alone on this one. How funny is that.

[Spudboy]

Clay.

[example1]

Part of this is because I feel like I would rather have Buchholz on the mound in a deciding game and I don't think game 3 would be a deciding game... if it is then they either lost 3-0 or are about to win 3-0. If they are down 2-0 then it is possible that both Dice-K and Buchholz would need to win, or we'd be looking at starting Beckett or Lester, both of whom would have lost already.

 

I like the idea of Clay winning big games as a 4th starter this year and developing that confidence in the future. Dice-K gets paid and is expected to win as a #3 starter on this club. If he's healthy (which he appears to be) then throw him this year and have Buchholz as the #3 next year and on...

 

Long story short, I see the playoffs this year as a year of development for this team. I simply don't feel like they are a WS championship team. I really hope I'm wrong.

[a700hitter]

Part of this is because I feel like I would rather have Buchholz on the mound in a deciding game and I don't think game 3 would be a deciding game... if it is then they either lost 3-0 or are about to win 3-0. If they are down 2-0 then it is possible that both Dice-K and Buchholz would need to win, or we'd be looking at starting Beckett or Lester, both of whom would have lost already.

 

I like the idea of Clay winning big games as a 4th starter this year and developing that confidence in the future. Dice-K gets paid and is expected to win as a #3 starter on this club. If he's healthy (which he appears to be) then throw him this year and have Buchholz as the #3 next year and on...

 

Long story short, I see the playoffs this year as a year of development for this team. I simply don't feel like they are a WS championship team.

You and Spud are bringing me down. Yes, I am concerned about things, but I think the Sox beat the Angels again, unless the Angels steal 5 bases each game. "A year of development"? Huh? We lost to Tamp last year. That was enough development. We've only got one young guy in a critical spot and he might not pitch until game 4. Everyone else is fairly well-seasoned.

[Keeper]

Experience is important in the playoffs, but Buchholz has mostly been good this year. He's had three hiccups. With Dice-K, you never really know what you're going to get, but you do know he probably won't give you 6 innings whereas Buchholz has pitched 6 or more innings in 9 of his 15 starts.

 

It's not a slam dunk, but I'd start Buchholz.

[Spudboy]

You and Spud are bringing me down. Yes' date=' I am concerned about things, but I think the Sox beat the Angels again, unless the Angels steal 5 bases each game. "A year of development"? Huh? We lost to Tamp last year. That was enough development. We've only got one young guy in a critical spot and he might not pitch until game 4. Everyone else is fairly well-seasoned.[/quote']

 

It was not my intent to bring anyone down.

 

Leave that to the Sox. Or not.

 

I'd love to see the Sox prevail. I need something to cheer me up and something to look forward to.

 

But let's get real. Take away the Sox record against the O's this year, and they are what?

4 games over .500?

 

Beckett=?. Lester(now)=? Buch?????? Well, I think he will do fine. But no one really knows.

Dice? Ha! What has he shown? "Savvy veteran performance"? Hardly.

 

Firing on all cylinders (healthy , and playing their best), the Sox are competitive in the playoffs. But they are not currently either healthy or performing up to standard.

 

It will be nice to see them in the post season. But let's not get carried away.

 

This is not a championship team.

 

Don't need sabermetrics to see this.

[example1]

You and Spud are bringing me down. Yes' date=' I am concerned about things, but I think the Sox beat the Angels again, unless the Angels steal 5 bases each game. "A year of development"? Huh? We lost to Tamp last year. That was enough development. We've only got one young guy in a critical spot and he might not pitch until game 4. Everyone else is fairly well-seasoned.[/quote']

 

I think we just see this team as being in different places. I'm usually the optimist, but this year I'm not. It was bound to happen at some point. Perhaps I'm preparing for the fall, perhaps I'm just not seeing something I should be... I don't know.

 

They are a great team overall, and Bay and Youkilis have been the best offensive pieces this year. To me, they both feel like accessory pieces rather than centerpieces. When Ortiz is on he's a center piece. I don't expect that from him anymore. Drew has never been the centerpiece, Martinez has shown flashes of it in his career but isn't really. Pedroia and Ellsbury are both very nice accessories too.

 

Their saving grace this season might end up being the Yankees weak pitching staff and relative lack of contributing depth. The Yankees have a great offensive team but if CC loses the first game they could be in trouble quickly as their #2 and #3 spots are suspect.

 

Honestly, if the Yankees were not in the way I would be much more optimistic--still cautious about LAA, but optimistic. If they are able to beat LAA and the Yankees then I will be very, very impressed and more than happy to eat dirty, feathery, s***-infested crow. Again it feels like the 2008 club to me. Good, not great at any particular spot. Key players playing tired, Lester and Beckett having questionable issues going on when it matters most, questions about Dice-K's abililty. The most reassuring part about this team is the experience coming out of the bullpen. That's invaluable in the playoffs, and it seems unique to this Boston squad this year. Let's hope at least.

 

EDIT: Let me clarify: there is ONE player on this team who can carry a team in the playoffs. It's Josh Beckett. He's certainly done it before. If he shows up as playoff Josh Beckett then the rest of the team can stand behind him and go pretty far. I wanted to clarify that. His playoff success should not be underestimated.

[RWTP24]

I would go with Clay, but if Dice-K has a great outing in three days, I would not be surprised if Tito went with him.

[BSN07]

Kind if depends on what Dice-K give in his last start IMO.

 

But lets look at the different scenarios for conversational sake.

 

Game 3- Sox up 2-0 in series. I'd go with Buchholz to try and wrap up the series, with Dice-K for game 4.

 

Game 3- Sox tied with LAA 1-1. Very important game. This is tough. I think I'm leaning Buchholz here. 6+ IP 9/15 is hard to ignore. Especially when you know Dice-K could come out and through 100 pitches in 3 innings.

 

Game 3- Sox down 0-2. Kidnap Felix Hernendez, tape his eyes back, and give him # 18

[a700hitter]

I think we just see this team as being in different places. I'm usually the optimist, but this year I'm not. It was bound to happen at some point. Perhaps I'm preparing for the fall, perhaps I'm just not seeing something I should be... I don't know.

 

They are a great team overall, and Bay and Youkilis have been the best offensive pieces this year. To me, they both feel like accessory pieces rather than centerpieces. When Ortiz is on he's a center piece. I don't expect that from him anymore. Drew has never been the centerpiece, Martinez has shown flashes of it in his career but isn't really. Pedroia and Ellsbury are both very nice accessories too.

 

Their saving grace this season might end up being the Yankees weak pitching staff and relative lack of contributing depth. The Yankees have a great offensive team but if CC loses the first game they could be in trouble quickly as their #2 and #3 spots are suspect.

 

Honestly, if the Yankees were not in the way I would be much more optimistic--still cautious about LAA, but optimistic. If they are able to beat LAA and the Yankees then I will be very, very impressed and more than happy to eat dirty, feathery, s***-infested crow. Again it feels like the 2008 club to me. Good, not great at any particular spot. Key players playing tired, Lester and Beckett having questionable issues going on when it matters most, questions about Dice-K's abililty. The most reassuring part about this team is the experience coming out of the bullpen. That's invaluable in the playoffs, and it seems unique to this Boston squad this year. Let's hope at least.

 

EDIT: Let me clarify: there is ONE player on this team who can carry a team in the playoffs. It's Josh Beckett. He's certainly done it before. If he shows up as playoff Josh Beckett then the rest of the team can stand behind him and go pretty far. I wanted to clarify that. His playoff success should not be underestimated.

I think the 2008 team was an excellent team and heading into the playoffs, Pedroia was as hot as any hitter that I have ever seen. The Sox were a better, deeper , more well-balanced team than Tampa or the Phillies. Tampa was a 1-year wonder, and we never should have lost to them and we wouldn't have if Beckett hadn't torn his oblique, which is why I am worried about these 3 cortisone shots. Even Remy said that he never heard of 3 shots on the same day. I think you are being overly critical. To appreciate how good this team is you need to watch more of the other teams. Most of the other teams really have lots of glaring weaknesses. This team can go all the way. They need to be healthy and play well. The Yankees are very formidable, but the Sox can beat them even if they are playing well., but they can't spot them 3 games.

[Dojji]

Pretty big question really.

 

No matter what scenario you can imagine, Game 3 is the most critical game in a 5 game series. Either you're putting the Angels away, breaking a tie, or scrambling for survival.

 

I'd run with the kid. Daisuke is a canny pitcher but he just doesn't have the stuff Buchholz has.

 

the caveate here is that if buchholz shows signs that his last start has rattled him (like it did after the walkoff in Tampa last year) then I go with Dice. I'd rather not throw a kid into the fire in the playoffs if his confidence is less than full.

[a700hitter]

Pretty big question really.

 

No matter what scenario you can imagine, Game 3 is the most critical game in a 5 game series. Either you're putting the Angels away, breaking a tie, or scrambling for survival.

 

I'd run with the kid. Daisuke is a canny pitcher but he just doesn't have the stuff Buchholz has.

 

the caveate here is that if buchholz shows signs that his last start has rattled him (like it did after the walkoff in Tampa last year) then I go with Dice. I'd rather not throw a kid into the fire in the playoffs if his confidence is less than full.

When Buchholz leaves his fastball up in the zone, it gets crushed. The adrenaline of a playoff game can cause a pitcher to miss his spots more often than usual. Like Schilling used to say, the difference between winning and losing is how the pitcher executes 5 or 6 pitches. I'd put my money on the cool head with experience to execute those pitches in a high pressure game. I'd go with the experience almost every single time. I'd only opt for the inexperienced guy if his stuff is postively overpowering. There are very few of those guys in each era. Clemens had overpowering stuff, but Dave Stewart ate his lunch every single time.

[Dojji]

When Buchholz leaves his fastball up in the zone' date=' it gets crushed. The adrenaline of a playoff game can cause a pitcher to miss his spots more often than usual. Like Schilling used to say, the difference between winning and losing is how the pitcher executes 5 or 6 pitches. I'd put my money on the cool head with experience to execute those pitches in a high pressure game. I'd go with the experience almost every single time. I'd only opt for the inexperienced guy if his stuff is postively overpowering. There are very few of those guys in each era. Clemens had overpowering stuff, but Dave Stewart ate his lunch every single time.[/quote']

 

Let's not forget that Daisuke's performance in the playoffs isn't exactly stellar. I'll go to youth over experience if all the experience is bad.

 

Daisuke is a 5 inning pitcher in the postseason with a high ERA and many many walks.

[a700hitter]

Let's not forget that Daisuke's performance in the playoffs isn't exactly stellar. I'll go to youth over experience if all the experience is bad.

 

Daisuke is a 5 inning pitcher in the postseason with a high ERA and many many walks.

I think this is an unfair characterization of his performance. In 7 post-season starts, he has really had only 1 maybe 2 stinkers. Yes, he throws a lot of pitches and has trouble completing 6 innings, but he almost always keeps the team in the game. Even in the game he stunk (2008 ALCS game 5), the Sox came back to win. That's no credit to him, but he usually does keep us in the game and the Sox have won 6 of his 7 post-season starts. In ALCS game 1 last year he threw a 7 inning 2 hit gem. His post season experience hasn't been all bad. I think it has been more good than bad.

[a700hitter]

I have identified the 4th vote for Dice K as coming from one of the laptops stolen by Clay Buchholz.

[Rdsxmbnt]

He really does not know how ignorant he is, does he?

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

....Clay?

 

 

(@ original post)

[Dojji]

I think this is an unfair characterization of his performance. In 7 post-season starts' date=' he has really had only 1 maybe 2 stinkers. Yes, he throws a lot of pitches and has trouble completing 6 innings, but he almost always keeps the team in the game. Even in the game he stunk (2008 ALCS game 5), the Sox came back to win. That's no credit to him, but he usually does keep us in the game and the Sox have won 6 of his 7 post-season starts. In ALCS game 1 last year he threw a 7 inning 2 hit gem. His post season experience hasn't been all bad. I think it has been more good than bad.[/quote']

 

Daisuke has 7 starts and 35.2 innings pitched in the playoffs.

 

No, this is not an unfair characterization.

[yankees228]

Experience is important in the playoffs' date=' but Buchholz has mostly been good this year. He's had three hiccups. With Dice-K, you never really know what you're going to get, but you [i']do[/i] know he probably won't give you 6 innings whereas Buchholz has pitched 6 or more innings in 9 of his 15 starts.

 

It's not a slam dunk, but I'd start Buchholz.

 

Can you give me a tangible example of experience being the reason a team won or player performed well?

 

EDIT: If experience is so important, why did John Lackey beat Livan Hernandez in Game 7 of the 2002 World Series? I don't think anyone needs to be reminded of what Hernandez accomplished in the playoffs. I realize this is just one example, and doesn't necessarily prove my point, but I'm not the one making definitive statements.

[example1]

I think the 2008 team was an excellent team and heading into the playoffs' date=' Pedroia was as hot as any hitter that I have ever seen. The Sox were a better, deeper , more well-balanced team than Tampa or the Phillies. Tampa was a 1-year wonder, and we never should have lost to them and we wouldn't have if Beckett hadn't torn his oblique, which is why I am worried about these 3 cortisone shots. Even Remy said that he never heard of 3 shots on the same day. I think you are being overly critical. To appreciate how good this team is you need to watch more of the other teams. Most of the other teams really have lots of glaring weaknesses. This team can go all the way. They need to be healthy and play well. The Yankees are very formidable, but the Sox can beat them even if they are playing well., but they can't spot them 3 games.[/quote']

 

I hope you're right. I thought last year's Tampa team was a very good team. Their bullpen overachieved, but they actually did acheive, so that criticism goes only so far. Garza and Shields were both very good pitchers and their lineup was always solid. I too belive the Sox were potentially the better team, but they can't keep digging themselves holes and expecting to win.

 

I think this years Sox team is a "hold the lead' kind of team, rather than a "comeback late" kind of team. In past years I think it has been different. If they can get early leads then I'm optimistic, if they are held down early then I'm not. Again, pretty subjective, but just my sense.

[a700hitter]

Can you give me a tangible example of experience being the reason a team won or player performed well?

 

EDIT: If experience is so important, why did John Lackey beat Livan Hernandez in Game 7 of the 2002 World Series? I don't think anyone needs to be reminded of what Hernandez accomplished in the playoffs. I realize this is just one example, and doesn't necessarily prove my point, but I'm not the one making definitive statements.

Not only is it onlynone example, but I think it was the only time that a rookie won a deciding WS game in history. That's how rare it is for a manger to hand the ball to an inexperienced rookie in a big post season game.

[yankees228]

Not only is it onlynone example' date=' but I think it was the only time that a rookie won a deciding WS game in history. That's how rare it is for a manger to hand the ball to an inexperienced rookie in a big post season game.[/quote']

 

Technically that might be correct, but Jon Lester won the deciding game in the 2007 World Series (only 15 starts the previous year). Josh Beckett was incredible in the 2003 postseason in only his second big league season. I don't think Matt Garza's inexperience hurt him against the Red Sox last year.

 

Those are just a couple of pitching examples from recent seasons.