Youkilis as a defensive 3B

[BoSox21]

But if they are looking for one that helps them next year as well as down the road then the Dice-K/Lowell+ prospects deal I would think would be attractive to them.

 

Then why the f*** would they trade Felix in the first place?

[Dojji]

The Mariners might want Lowell since Beltre's moving on, but only if two conditions are true

 

1: They think they are immediate contenders in the American League West

 

2: They think Lowell can bounce back defensively while providing his normal level of offense in their park.

 

In order for that first condition to be true, they kind of need to KEEP Felix. If we're trading Lowell to the mariners, we're probably getting someone like Mark Lowe back at best.

[BSN07]

Then why the f*** would they trade Felix in the first place?

 

Money? Trading one guy to fill multiple spots, thus creating a better balanced team?

 

 

It's not impossible for the to trade Felix and still be competitive. If the can get the Sox to eat Lowell's remaining $, they fill 3B next season for free. And pick up 2 picks for him after the season. Dice-K gives them a good SP to plug into the rotation at a decent price(8M per). They have some decent players on the team. And the FA market could help fill in the rest of the holes. Who knows. I'm just saying it's not impossible. I really don't know what their budget is.

[BSN07]

The Mariners might want Lowell since Beltre's moving on, but only if two conditions are true

 

1: They think they are immediate contenders in the American League West

 

2: They think Lowell can bounce back defensively while providing his normal level of offense in their park.

 

In order for that first condition to be true, they kind of need to KEEP Felix. If we're trading Lowell to the mariners, we're probably getting someone like Mark Lowe back at best.

 

That's a horrible return. The Blue Jays got Encarnacion(sp) + for Rolen. He's just as much of an injury risk as Lowell is.

[Dojji]

That's a horrible return. The Blue Jays got Encarnacion(sp) + for Rolen. He's just as much of an injury risk as Lowell is.

 

Encarnacion is damaged goods. If the Redws had any faith in him they wouldn't have traded him away.

 

I think Lowe would be a decent return for what Lowell is these days. That's JMHO though.

[BoSox21]

Money? Trading one guy to fill multiple spots, thus creating a better balanced team?

 

 

It's not impossible for the to trade Felix and still be competitive. If the can get the Sox to eat Lowell's remaining $, they fill 3B next season for free. And pick up 2 picks for him after the season. Dice-K gives them a good SP to plug into the rotation at a decent price(8M per). They have some decent players on the team. And the FA market could help fill in the rest of the holes. Who knows. I'm just saying it's not impossible. I really don't know what their budget is.

 

Lowell makes $12 mil next year and Dice-K makes $8 mil next year and $10 mil the two following years. Where are they saving money? And Lowell CANNOT play 3B anymore on a regular basis and seeing as he's old, that won't change for the rest of his career so anyone saying they'll fill the 3B hole with Lowell just isn't correct.

[brunansky_caught_the_ball]

No one wanted Lowell in 2005 (when he was a throw in with the Beckett deal) and no one wants him now.

 

On a side note, Youkilis is the BEST deal in the majors. He plays gold glove 1st base and gold glove 3rd base and is a perennial MVP candidate.

[ORS]

Tuiasosopo.

 

End Lowell to Seattle discussion.

 

Carry on.

[CrespoBlows]

Did you even read what we have been talking about?

 

I've already said that if they are in rebuilding mode then yes a package of 4 or 5 top prospects will probably be more attractive to them.

 

But if they are looking for one that helps them next year as well as down the road then the Dice-K/Lowell+ prospects deal I would think would be attractive to them.

 

I thought it was assumed that the Mariners aren't going to be competing next year.

[Dojji]

Point taken, although Tuiasosopo isn't exactly a sure thing.

 

There's always the perennial Angels and Phillies scenarios. The Phils in particular might be tempted. As a starting 3B, Feliz makes a great backup.

[CrespoBlows]

Cross the Phillies off.

 

He needs to DH.

[a700hitter]

When does Felix beome arbitration eligible, free agent eligible?

[CrespoBlows]

When does Felix beome arbitration eligible' date=' free agent eligible?[/quote']

 

Already is, and he'll make about $7-8 million next year. I think he'll be a FA in '12

[Dipre]

Point taken, although Tuiasosopo isn't exactly a sure thing.

 

There's always the perennial Angels and Phillies scenarios. The Phils in particular might be tempted. As a starting 3B, Feliz makes a great backup.

 

So you take away the solid defensive 3B who's providing some offensive value and replace him with a statue?

 

Fantastic thought process.

[Dojji]

So you take away the solid defensive 3B who's providing some offensive value and replace him with a statue?

 

Fantastic thought process.

 

you guys need to get off the "statue" thing. This is his first bad year defensively ever by UZR/150. Unless he needs to go under the knife again in the offseason he should regain most of his range as he gets healthier. Not as much as he had in his prime of course, but he should be back to being average defensively.

[CrespoBlows]

you guys need to get off the "statue" thing. This is his first bad year defensively ever by UZR/150. Unless he needs to go under the knife again in the offseason he should regain most of his range as he gets healthier. Not as much as he had in his prime of course' date=' but he should be back to being average defensively.[/quote']

 

That hip is shot. He won't ever go back to being an average defender.

[Dipre]

you guys need to get off the "statue" thing. This is his first bad year defensively ever by UZR/150. Unless he needs to go under the knife again in the offseason he should regain most of his range as he gets healthier. Not as much as he had in his prime of course' date=' but he should be back to being average defensively.[/quote']

 

*Sigh*

 

Are you serious?

[Dojji]

Trying to set yourself up as the Sox vesion of Jacksonianmarch Crespo?

 

Dipre: If you've been watching, he's gotten better as the year went on. Unless they need to open him up again I don't see why that trend can't continue, especially with an offseason to rehab or rest that hip as needed.

[CrespoBlows]

Trying to set yourself up as the Sox vesion of Jacksonianmarch?

 

Wow.

[BSN07]

Lowell makes $12 mil next year and Dice-K makes $8 mil next year and $10 mil the two following years. Where are they saving money? And Lowell CANNOT play 3B anymore on a regular basis and seeing as he's old' date=' that won't change for the rest of his career so anyone saying they'll fill the 3B hole with Lowell just isn't correct.[/quote']

Didn't I say Seattle should get the Sox to pay his salary, and the Sox should? I believe that's 12m off the go.

Tuiasosopo.

 

End Lowell to Seattle discussion.

 

Carry on.

Damn, got me there. I really just flat out forgot about him. he looks like a good young player. Maybe Lowell can DH;)(Don't worry, that's about the last straw I can grasp at lol)

I thought it was assumed that the Mariners aren't going to be competing next year.

 

No not really. With the right moves they could be.

 

But like I've said before, if they are unconcerned with 2010, then yes the Lowell/Dice-K package would make very little sense I completely agree.

 

 

I suck with the more advanced matrix systems, but could someone tell me who provides more winshares? Felix or a combo of Dice-K/Lowell? Would be much appreciated on my part. I know Dice-K will have crap for this year. So maybe a career average, or maybe last 2-3 seasons. I'm really just curious.

[Dipre]

Dipre: If you've been watching, he's gotten better as the year went on. Unless they need to open him up again I don't see why that trend can't continue, especially with an offseason to rehab or rest that hip as needed.

 

Did you even watch the previous Bucholz vs. Baltimore game, champ?

[CrespoBlows]

Didn't I say Seattle should get the Sox to pay his salary, and the Sox should? I believe that's 12m off the go.

 

Damn, got me there. I really just flat out forgot about him. he looks like a good young player. Maybe Lowell can DH;)(Don't worry, that's about the last straw I can grasp at lol)

 

 

No not really. With the right moves they could be.

 

But like I've said before, if they are unconcerned with 2010, then yes the Lowell/Dice-K package would make very little sense I completely agree.

 

 

I suck with the more advanced matrix systems, but could someone tell me who provides more winshares? Felix or a combo of Dice-K/Lowell? Would be much appreciated on my part.

 

Hernandez, and it's not close.

[BSN07]

That hip is shot. He won't ever go back to being an average defender.

He may have value as a DH though:dunno: There were many here screaming for it a little while ago. What's Seattles DH situation

Trying to set yourself up as the Sox vesion of Jacksonianmarch Crespo?

 

Dipre: If you've been watching, he's gotten better as the year went on. Unless they need to open him up again I don't see why that trend can't continue, especially with an offseason to rehab or rest that hip as needed.

 

It does seem like his mobility has gotten better lately. But he is getting regular rest. Which I think is helping. It's really hard to tell is he's 100% until he plays an extended amount of time. And that might not be until next year.

 

Let me ask this to maybe gain some perspective on his value. What would you feel more comfortable seeing in 2010?

 

A. Lowell as the full time 3B

B. Lowell in the current rotation

C. Lowell and Papi splitting AB's, while getting some playing time at 3B

D. On another team

[CrespoBlows]

Lowell can't play full time. I'm not trying to be Jacko. (f***ing weak) If you read Will Carroll at all, he mentions that Lowell's DL stint was due to his overuse the first half of the year.

[Dojji]

I would be nervous about Lowell as a full time 3B, which is what you're asking. I'd be more concerned about the chance of a breakdown than the chance of poor performance when healthy though. those who enjoy baiting me might insist otherwise, but that's not really much different from how I felt about him last year.

 

His bat can cover for some of his defensive sins if his range can't bounce back at least a little, and he still positions well and has a cannon arm. The heightened risk of breakdown is the big problem with Lowell's trade value IMHO.

 

The reason I thought the Phillies might be interested is because they have a good defensive 3B who can split time with Lowell and take some of the weight of his defense off the team if he can't bounce back. Feliz represents a good insurance policy while Lowell represents a strong offensive upgrade.

[BSN07]

Did you even watch the previous Bucholz vs. Baltimore game' date=' champ?[/quote']

I don't think he's 100%. But I don't think he is a statue either. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a little rusty coming into games after sitting for a few days.

Hernandez' date=' and it's not close.[/quote']

 

Is it really? Do you have the actual numbers and is it close? I know this season it would be way off. But I would bet over the last couple years it's close.

[Dojji]

Did you even watch the previous Bucholz vs. Baltimore game' date=' champ?[/quote']

 

Do you often judge a player's ability from his performance in a single game?

[CrespoBlows]

Is it really? Do you have the actual numbers and is it close? I know this season it would be way off. But I would bet over the last couple years it's close.

 

Hernandez has a 5.5 WARP this year

Lowell has a 2.2.

Dice K is - 0.8.

 

Last year, Lowell was a defensive ace, which was worth up to two wins a season. That's a big chunk of his value being taken away.

 

Dice-K was better than Felix Hernandez in 2008, but that's because he managed to have a ridiculous amounts of stranded base runners.

[BSN07]

Lowell can't play full time. I'm not trying to be Jacko. (f***ing weak) If you read Will Carroll at all' date=' he mentions that Lowell's DL stint was due to his overuse the first half of the year.[/quote']

 

I did LOL when I read it. Was a bit of a low blow though:lol:

 

Ok that is a fair statement/theory from Carroll. But given rest in the off season and the ability to train(probably was very limited with his training last off season) would it not be possible for him to return to form? I mean I know he's no spring chicken, but he's only 18 months older the Arod. He's not Gary Sheffield.

[example1]

Hernandez has a 5.5 WARP this year

Lowell has a 2.2.

Dice K is - 0.8.

 

Last year, Lowell was a defensive ace, which was worth up to two wins a season. That's a big chunk of his value being taken away.

 

Dice-K was better than Felix Hernandez in 2008, but that's because he managed to have a ridiculous amounts of stranded base runners.

 

A few things to add to this discussion:

 

1. I think it only fair to look at the WARPs in terms of what one could reasonably expect from Dice-K and Lowell and Felix, not Dice-K's horrible year. This year should be an anomoly (even if he's only a mid-rotation starter, he should get 2.5-3 WARP)

 

2. Felix is getting better, so this year should be more the norm for him

 

3. WARP isn't the only factor. Cost should also be taken into account. Felix will be able to command a whole lot of money, I'm speculating that he'll push $20m a year (especially if the Yankees have anything to say about it). Once he's making FA money (either from Seattle resigning him or after he's been a FA) his value goes way down. He will continue to contribute a high WARP (I suspect) but that will be an expectation, rather than a good deal--if that makes sense. CC Sabathia doesn't have the option of putting up a nice WARP, it isn't something that would be 'nice' if he did, it is something he HAS to do to even come close to justifying his price. Felix will be there quickly.

 

4. When looking at WARP/$$, adding prospects quickly shifts the balance, especially marquee prospects like Kelly and Westmoreland. If Westmoreland becomes a 4-5 WARP player at MLB minimum salary then any deal he's involved with quickly goes in Seattle's favor, regardless of how good Felix is.

 

5. Fortunately, Boston can afford to do that lopsided deal because Felix is the kind of guy who could put them over the top or keep them on top (depending on how you look at it), and he 'only' takes up one roster spot.

 

Just things to keep in mind. WARP is important, but it needs to be combined with cost when considering that teams like Seattle (and Boston) care about their payroll.