Official Red Sox offseason thread

[example1]

Assuming you get him, where would you put him?

 

Do you seriously think this team is going to cut bait on Ortiz? I mean we might want them to but do you expect them to?

 

I don't expect them to, but they should. Ortiz might still be useful next year, but he's not the same hitter and he can't play any other positions. If he could play some 1B and allow other players (Drew, Bay, Martinez, Lowell) to get in at DH then it might be a different story.

 

They have 1 year left with Ortiz. They work very hard not to have contracts to go on well-beyond the life of the player's top production, but even with that effort they have Ortiz and Lowell who could both be improved upon signed for next year. I don't see a hitter not named Mauer or Pujols who will be a better hitter than Holliday in the 2011 FA class. If that is the case, then they should get the best hitters whenever they come up, deal with the consequences and improve the team. If that means paying Lowell or Ortiz's whole salary and shipping them somewhere for prospects or with prospects for a good player then they should. They're going to be paying that salary no matter what one way or the other for one more year.

 

After 2010 they have Ortiz, Lowell, Victor and Beckett all coming off the books. That's a lot of money being freed up. I feel that it is likely they resign Victor and less likely that they resign any of the rest of them.

 

I don't know... I was just thinking about it yesterday. If Holliday goes elsewhere then the Sox will still be wondering what to do after 2010. If they get him and Bay at least they have the beginnings of a team structure (with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Holliday, Drew and Bay all signed for 2011) to build around.

[Dojji]

Alright, I'll back off on Gonzalez. I'm not really very committed to the argument in the first place. I'm basically trying to figure out where to draw the boundaries you're talking about.

[example1]

My point is simple. This is a guy who takes a lot of walks and strikes out about once every 6 at bats. Them pitching around him isn't really a good excuse. A guy like Adrian would be pitched around in a decent lineup as well. Your definition of a true #4 hitter does let Adrian out.

 

We are getting nowhere.

 

Doj, you have acknoweldged that you would like another marquee hitter to hit #4, and that while Bay probably isn't that guy, it will be hard to get that guy in any case because they are rare.

 

Dipre, you have stated that there is a small but select group of hitters who fit that criteria for you, Bay isn't one of them.

 

You both agree, the only area of disagreement is whether any of the hitters we covet are available.

 

Doj, if you're arguing that Adrian Gonzalez is not a good enough option--even if it is to prove Dipre wrong--then I can tell you aren't really taking the discussion seriously. He's an elite young hitter with more power than anyone who is currently on the Sox. He's also LH.

 

I feel like he or Prince Fielder are the best possible additions.

[Dipre]

We are getting nowhere.

 

Doj, you have acknoweldged that you would like another marquee hitter to hit #4, and that while Bay probably isn't that guy, it will be hard to get that guy in any case because they are rare.

 

Dipre, you have stated that there is a small but select group of hitters who fit that criteria for you, Bay isn't one of them.

 

You both agree, the only area of disagreement is whether any of the hitters we covet are available.

 

Doj, if you're arguing that Adrian Gonzalez is not a good enough option--even if it is to prove Dipre wrong--then I can tell you aren't really taking the discussion seriously. He's an elite young hitter with more power than anyone who is currently on the Sox. He's also LH.

 

I feel like he or Prince Fielder are the best possible additions.

 

example1 ate some truth for breakfast.

[example1]

Alright' date=' I'll back off on Gonzalez. I'm not really very committed to the argument in the first place. I'm basically trying to figure out where to draw the boundaries you're talking about.[/quote']

 

You know those guys who get lots of money to hit HRs and not specifically just to draw tough walks? Thats what we want. Bay is close to that, a very fine player, one of the best offensive OFs in baseball, but he (like Drew) is not that power bat.

 

It is an easier thing to feel than it is to quantify.

[Dojji]

I don't expect them to' date=' but they should. Ortiz might still be useful next year, but he's not the same hitter and he can't play any other positions. If he could play some 1B and allow other players (Drew, Bay, Martinez, Lowell) to get in at DH then it might be a different story.[/quote']

 

Even if he could, we're incredibly crowded at corner infield.

 

They have 1 year left with Ortiz. They work very hard not to have contracts to go on well-beyond the life of the player's top production, but even with that effort they have Ortiz and Lowell who could both be improved upon signed for next year. I don't see a hitter not named Mauer or Pujols who will be a better hitter than Holliday in the 2011 FA class. If that is the case, then they should get the best hitters whenever they come up, deal with the consequences and improve the team. If that means paying Lowell or Ortiz's whole salary and shipping them somewhere for prospects or with prospects for a good player then they should. They're going to be paying that salary no matter what one way or the other for one more year.

 

I can't disagree with this kind of thinking. Especially with the extreme unlikelihood Pulols makes FA without being bowled over by his current team and the decent chance Mauer doesn't either.

After 2010 they have Ortiz, Lowell, Victor and Beckett all coming off the books. That's a lot of money being freed up. I feel that it is likely they resign Victor and less likely that they resign any of the rest of them.

 

I think there's a decent shot that we keep Beckett if he has a good year next year. Inconsistent he might be, but at his worst Beckett is still a solid pitcher with a lot to recommend him (even in 2006, he was at least a 15 game winner)

 

I don't know... I was just thinking about it yesterday. If Holliday goes elsewhere then the Sox will still be wondering what to do after 2010. If they get him and Bay at least they have the beginnings of a team structure (with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Holliday, Drew and Bay all signed for 2011) to build around.

 

We are definitely entering a transitional phase, and our farm system's apparent inability to develop a true franchise power hitter is becoming a problem. if Anderson and Reddick can't become big league ready next year we're in a certain amount of trouble and may need to wind up overpaying for someone else's big league power hitter. That puts us even more behind the 8-ball than we already are in the divisional race.

[Keeper]

I feel like he or Prince Fielder are the best possible additions.

 

Absolutely. Either one would have a tremendous impact on the lineup next year.

[Dipre]

Absolutely. Either one would have a tremendous impact on the lineup next year.

 

I'm not afraid to admit i have a man-crush on Adrian Gonzales.

 

He's f***in' awesome.

[Dojji]

They just changed leadership at San Diego. Maybe there's some hope there.

[Dipre]

They just changed leadership at San Diego. Maybe there's some hope there.

 

FREE ADRIAN!!!!

[example1]

I can't disagree with this kind of thinking. Especially with the extreme unlikelihood Pulols makes FA without being bowled over by his current team and the decent chance Mauer doesn't either.

 

If he's available, then we'll hear "Now batting, the designated hitter, Albert Pujols" coming out of Yankee stadium speakers for the foreseeable future.

 

I think there's a decent shot that we keep Beckett if he has a good year next year. Inconsistent he might be, but at his worst Beckett is still a solid pitcher with a lot to recommend him (even in 2006, he was at least a 15 game winner).

 

The less elite Beckett looks this year and next, the more likely he will be to resign. His presence on the team, his good clubhouse demeanor, etc., all warrant a nice salary... if he wants to be one of the best paid pitchers in baseball he'll go elsewhere.

 

We are definitely entering a transitional phase, and our farm system's apparent inability to develop a true franchise power hitter is becoming a problem. if Anderson and Reddick can't become big league ready next year we're in a certain amount of trouble and may need to wind up overpaying for someone else's big league power hitter.

 

I don't think it is a problem. Although it hasn't produced a true franchise power hitter, it has developed an MVP 2B, a near-MVP 1B/3B, a near Cy Young SP (Lester), a SP with near Cy Young stuff (Buchholz), an all-star Closer and a CF/leadoff hitter who is young and likely coveted by many other teams.

 

Most teams don't develop a franchise power hitter. Mostly they are drafted high and then sold to the highest bidder. The Sox (and their fans) should not be disappointed if the farm system doesn't produce that guy right away (it will though, in good time).

 

That puts us even more behind the 8-ball than we already are in the divisional race.

 

If that 8-ball keeps leading to playoff appearances then all will be fine.

 

2009 isn't even over yet. I can definitely imagine a scenario where the Sox win one game, everyone says "the pressure is back on the Angels now" and we go into game 4 with the chance to win for a winner take all game 5. I'm not optimistic about the LCS, but if people need to get their jollys by not losing in the ALDS I think that's still possible.

[Keeper]

I've always loved Gonzo's swing. No matter who they get, I think Ortiz and Lowell's days in Boston are numbered. And Varitek should be gone ASAP.

[Dojji]

If he's available' date=' then we'll hear "Now batting, the designated hitter, Albert Pujols" coming out of Yankee stadium speakers for the foreseeable future. [/quote']

 

I think that's excessively defeatist. If all things are equal, sure, NY usually wins, but in this case we'd have something to offer that New York really couldn't.

 

This is a National League all star and a Gold Glove defender. I honestly think that if he was given the choice to DH in New York, or play the field in Boston, he'd come to Boston.

The less elite Beckett looks this year and next, the more likely he will be to resign. His presence on the team, his good clubhouse demeanor, etc., all warrant a nice salary... if he wants to be one of the best paid pitchers in baseball he'll go elsewhere.

 

That's fair.

 

I don't think it is a problem. Although it hasn't produced a true franchise power hitter, it has developed an MVP 2B, a near-MVP 1B/3B, a near Cy Young SP (Lester), a SP with near Cy Young stuff (Buchholz), an all-star Closer and a CF/leadoff hitter who is young and likely coveted by many other teams.

 

Most teams don't develop a franchise power hitter. Mostly they are drafted high and then sold to the highest bidder. The Sox (and their fans) should not be disappointed if the farm system doesn't produce that guy right away (it will though, in good time).

 

I suppose that's true.

 

 

 

If that 8-ball keeps leading to playoff appearances then all will be fine.

 

2009 isn't even over yet. I can definitely imagine a scenario where the Sox win one game, everyone says "the pressure is back on the Angels now" and we go into game 4 with the chance to win for a winner take all game 5. I'm not optimistic about the LCS, but if people need to get their jollys by not losing in the ALDS I think that's still possible.

 

I don't really fear that the Sox can perform in an elimination game, but I just feel like I don't want to get my hopes up or ask for too much. I felt much the same way in 2007 and 2008.

[example1]

FREE ADRIAN!!!!

 

Make them an offer they would be foolish to refuse. I think it would be easy to do with this crew of minor league talent.

 

They may only have one blockbuster deal available to them with their minor leaguers at this point, assuming Buchholz no longer counts as one. If they were to try to pursue both Gonzo/Prince and HWSNBN then their system would be totally depleated.

 

Of course, if they landed Gonzo without moving Buchholz (very possible, IMO) then i'd be okay with them moving Buchholz + + for HWSNBN.

[Keeper]

Of course' date=' if they landed Gonzo without moving Buchholz (very possible, IMO) then i'd be okay with them moving Buchholz + + for HWSNBN.[/quote']

 

Damn straight. That would be a steal for the Sox.

[Dojji]

I'd be OK with not moving Buchholz for any reason at all. Our rotation is already an asset. there are plenty of ways to upgrade it far more inexpensively than blowing down the Mariners for HWSNBN

[example1]

I think that's excessively defeatist. If all things are equal' date=' sure, NY usually wins, but in this case we'd have something to offer that New York really couldn't. [/quote']

 

NY might be getting near the end of what they wish to spend on players too, AND, with both Teixeira and A-Rod signed until 2100, I imagine they want that DH spot to be flexible. If the Sox threw 30m a year at Pujols he would probably take it, and they would probably really enjoy watching him smash balls over the monster for years to come. Oh, that would be sweet!

 

This is a National League all star and a Gold Glove defender. I honestly think that if he was given the choice to DH in New York, or play the field in Boston, he'd come to Boston.

 

Especially if they don't have an obvious DH for the later half of that inevitably 8 year contract, then Pujols would have a nice place to land when he doesn't want to play in the field any more (or when his body doesn't want to take it any more)

 

 

I don't really fear that the Sox can perform in an elimination game, but I just feel like I don't want to get my hopes up or ask for too much. I felt much the same way in 2007 and 2008.

 

And 2004. I don't want to get my hopes up either. As I've said in numerous places, there really is part of me that would rather the Sox just lose to the Angels rather than to the Yankees. I'm sure that will change if the Sox get to a game 5 with the Angels and win, but they are an inferior team to the Yankees right now, and watching the Yankees beat the snot out of the Sox is one of those things I can't stand watching but can't stand looking away from either... car wreck.

[example1]

I'd be OK with not moving Buchholz for any reason at all. Our rotation is already an asset. there are plenty of ways to upgrade it far more inexpensively than blowing down the Mariners for HWSNBN

 

HWSNBN is younger and better though, and if Beckett might leave then it would be great insurance. I'm mostly with you, but I wouldn't be disappointed if he were acquired.

[Dojji]

I could definitely learn to live with him in the rotation, but I don't think dealing for HWSNBN is the most cost effective way to get where we need to go. Not to mention, you're taking a starter out of the rotation in the deal which diminishes your actual gains.

 

If you want a fifth "top starter" I'd rather sign John Lackey. that way we keep Buchholz and also gain a good pitcher. Win win.

[Keeper]

I'd be OK with not moving Buchholz for any reason at all. Our rotation is already an asset. there are plenty of ways to upgrade it far more inexpensively than blowing down the Mariners for HWSNBN

 

Yeah, in a perfect world you wouldn't move Buchholz. But let's be serious. If the Sox get a big bat and Felix, he's gone. And I wouldn't look back wistfully on the deal. At all. Because Felix is elite. He's as good if not better than Lester. Buchholz is still a work in progress and, for all we know, may never be a front of the rotation starter.

[ORS]

So, let me get this straight, now Felix isn't worth going after at the cost of Buchholz? Is this another marginal upgrade like Teixeira over Lowell last offseason? If so, I can't help but think Gonzalez is going to become a "luxury" in the near future since it will block the 20 year all-star.

[Dipre]

So' date=' let me get this straight, now Felix isn't worth going after at the cost of Buchholz? Is this another marginal upgrade like Teixeira over Lowell last offseason? If so, I can't help but think Gonzalez is going to become a "luxury" in the near future since it will block the 20 year all-star.[/quote']

 

[Dojji]

So' date=' let me get this straight, now Felix isn't worth going after at the cost of Buchholz? Is this another marginal upgrade like Teixeira over Lowell last offseason? If so, I can't help but think Gonzalez is going to become a "luxury" in the near future since it will block the 20 year all-star.[/quote']

 

Yeah, because that's exactly the same thing.

 

Taking out a young pitcher with Buchholz' potential in order to get Hernandez does reduce the marginal gain. Don't try to pretend it doesn't or attempt to resort to ad homenim attacks to ignore a valid point.

 

Ideally you want to keep Buchholz and get Hernandez both. If you put Casey Kelly on the block (along with a looooot of other prospects) you might just be able to accomplish that.

[Keeper]

Yeah, because that's exactly the same thing.

 

Taking out a young pitcher with Buchholz' potential in order to get Hernandez does reduce the marginal gain. Don't try to pretend it doesn't or attempt to resort to ad homenim attacks to ignore a valid point.

 

Ideally you want to keep Buchholz and get Hernandez both.

 

Except getting Felix at the expense of Buchholz is not a marginal gain; it's a HUGE gain.

[Dojji]

Not as huge as having both pitchers would be.

 

there's no indication at this point that the Sox brass would seriously contemplate moving Buchholz anywhere.

[ORS]

Doubtful. Not if, as Keeper stated, the Sox are acquiring both. It just doesn't work like that. When you trade for an already established elite player, you are giving up your best, brightest, and closest to MLB ready prospects.

 

Look at the Teixeira to Atlanta trade for reference. Texas got Saltalamacchia, who was Atlanta's best prospect at the time, + Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, two guys with tons of talent who were at lower levels in their development.

 

Casey Kelly, at this stage of his development, is an add-on for a young established elite.

[Dojji]

Look at the Teixeira to Atlanta trade for reference. Texas got Saltalamacchia, who was Atlanta's best prospect at the time, + Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, two guys with tons of talent who were at lower levels in their development.

 

Casey Kelly, at this stage of his development, is an add-on for a young established elite.

 

Saltalamacchia wasn't as well established as Buchholz is now. IMHO the Sox are not going to trade clay Buchholz at all at this point.

[italstallianion]

Saltalamacchia wasn't as well established as Buchholz is now. IMHO the Sox are not going to trade clay Buchholz at all at this point.

 

I agree, but not because of anything you've said, but rather that no team would give up one of those players (Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, King Felix) for Clay Buchholz. They'd want (and rightfully so) substantially more.

[Dipre]

I agree' date=' but not because of anything you've said, but rather that no team would give up one of those players (Adrian Gonzalez, Hanley Ramirez, King Felix) for Clay Buchholz. They'd want (and rightfully so) substantially more.[/quote']

 

What?

 

Buchholz would be the centerpiece of the deal, sport.

[Keeper]

But if you're going to trade Buchholz in a package deal and get someone established in return, now is the best time to do it - while there is still an air of mystery about him.