Official Red Sox offseason thread

[example1]

Your initial argument was that Bay is a viable cleanup hitter.

 

He's not.

 

Don't backpedal.

 

Either admit he's not or prove he is.

 

Bay IS a viable cleanup hitter, just probably not on a team this loaded and so close to being World Series caliber. It's two sides of the same coin and "viable" is a relative term. There are plenty of teams that would love to add Bay as a #4 hitter (even the Angels would, IMO).

[Dipre]

What's to prove? He's a high level power hitter who's been very consistent year by year and hits 30-35 HR's while maintaining a very high OBP. I don't think too many teams in this league would blink at batting him fourth. In fact it takes a top offense to bat him anywhere else (except maybe third).

 

More of a 3 hitter than a 4 hitter if ya ask me.

[Dipre]

Bay IS a viable cleanup hitter' date=' just probably not on a team this loaded and so close to being World Series caliber. It's two sides of the same coin and [b']"viable" is a relative term. [/b] There are plenty of teams that would love to add Bay as a #4 hitter (even the Angels would, IMO).

 

Exactly.

[Dojji]

More of a 3 hitter than a 4 hitter if ya ask me.

 

With his high OBP? Sure, I'll buy that, but he certainly is enough of a power hitter to function strongly in the 4 hole.

[Dipre]

With his high OBP? Sure' date=' I'll buy that, but he certainly is enough of a power hitter to function strongly in the 4 hole.[/quote']

 

More OBP than power, and again, very vulnerable.

 

You can argue a hitter like Howard is more vulnerable, but Howard hits nearly 90 XBH every year from the 4-hole.

[Dojji]

I'm not sure I agree about "more OBP than power." I think you're overstating Bay's weaknesses and ignoring his track record as a power hitter. He typically slugs in the low to mid .500's and will hit about 60-70 XBH's in his own right.

 

Of the guys you listed as true #4 hitters, he's about a match for Aramis Ramirez and can trade strengths for weaknesses against Howard. The only ones that are definitely out of his league are Fielder and Gonzalez IMHO.

[Dipre]

I'm not sure I agree about "more OBP than power." I think you're overstating Bay's weaknesses and ignoring his track record as a power hitter. He typically slugs in the low to mid .500's and will hit about 60-70 XBH's in his own right.

 

Of the guys you listed as true #4 hitters, he's about a match for Aramis Ramirez and can trade strengths for weaknesses against Howard.

 

What about the other, what, 12?

 

Again, i'm not saying he doesn't have plus power, what i'm saying is he doesn't have elite power.

[Dojji]

Since you asked:

 

Mets: Delgado/Beltran

 

Beltran is in the same boat as Bay. Probably a better fit for the 3 hole. In fact, other than his 2006 performance Beltran has less overall power than Bay, though he makes up for it in other ways and truth told I'd probably swap Bay for Beltran in a heartbeat.

 

Delgado surely was a true #4 hitter when he was in his prime, and he's still quite a solid power hitter, but he's too old to count on as your big franchise thumper and injuries are starting to really catch up to him.

Milwaukee: Fielder

 

Better than Bay, no question.

 

Cubs: Ramirez/Lee (who appears to have finally overcome his injuries)

 

Bay is better than Ramirez, if only slightly. Certainly he's more consistent year by year. Aramis gets points back for playing a more premium position of course.

 

Other than Lee's career year in 2005 I'd say he and Bay are also equivalent players, although I might be underrating those two players and their doubles production. Again, even if he beats Bay in overall talent, Bay makes some points back for consistency.

 

Texas: Hamilton

 

Had a wretched year in 2009 and seems to have gone back to the mistakes that were destroying his talent earlier in his career, Last year I would have agreed with you but now I'm withholding judgement.

 

Giants: Panda.

 

Dynamite young rookie power hitter off to a great start to a career that we should bear in mind has only started. Not presently better than Bay but a very high probability of becoming so in the very near future. Take his .350+ BABIP under advisement.

[Dipre]

Aramis is a much less vulnerable hitter than Bay, so is Beltran.

[Dojji]

Aramis is a much less vulnerable hitter than Bay' date=' so is Beltran.[/quote']

 

What are you basing that on? Surely not just batting average, or two bad playoff games in 2009.

 

Bay's high OBP suggests (to me) that he's a good well-disciplined hitter that isn't as vulnerable to being exploited as you're suggesting.

[Dipre]

What are you basing that on? Surely not just batting average' date=' or two bad playoff games in 2009.[/quote']

 

*Sigh*

 

Not even dignifying that with a response.

 

Nice edit.

 

Is discipline a benchmark for not having holes in your swing?

 

Well then Adam Dunn must be the actual benchmark for non-exploitable hitters.

[example1]

What about the other, what, 12?

 

Again, i'm not saying he doesn't have plus power, what i'm saying is he doesn't have elite power.

 

To be fair, I think "elite power" in the steroid/HGH era is a tough thing to be sure about. I'm willing to bet that Bay hasn't taken the stuff (he's a beanpole and hasn't had huge offensive spikes).

 

There is a lot of benefit in loading the team with guys who don't juice, if at least some sort of moral victory. I don't know what elite power is without the steroids, but I'd be willing to bet Bay's #s have been close to what one could hope for.

 

He's got a higher career SLG than a number of HOF players who would probably be seen as more suitable #4 hitters.

 

 

**Perhaps the more interesting or tangential discussion would be: "What makes a good cleanup hitter?" Instead of simply looking at Bay's deficiencies, I would propose we try and make it tangible.

 

Watching the games for most of the past few years, this year and the playoffs, I would say that the word "aggressiveness" comes to mind. It seems like Victor Martinez and David Ortiz are the closest this team has to other teams' players who seem like legit #4 hitters. Martinez swings if it is close, often fouls it off, but is up there ripping. Youkilis looks more defensive to me in his approach, though I can't fault him for his philosophy of hitting because he's a great hitter. I don't want him to leave, by any stretch, just to have his skills be more suited to his style. #5 or #6 or #3 seem more suitable (even #2).

 

Perhaps it is a quality this FO likes, but I can't imagine that the masher I'm looking for would be up there looking for walks when he's the tying run. This Sox team is built with guys like that, which is great if you don't have 40+ HR power.

[Dipre]

To be fair, I think "elite power" in the steroid/HGH era is a tough thing to be sure about. I'm willing to bet that Bay hasn't taken the stuff (he's a beanpole and hasn't had huge offensive spikes).

 

There is a lot of benefit in loading the team with guys who don't juice, if at least some sort of moral victory. I don't know what elite power is without the steroids, but I'd be willing to bet Bay's #s have been close to what one could hope for.

 

He's got a higher career SLG than a number of HOF players who would probably be seen as more suitable #4 hitters.

 

 

**Perhaps the more interesting or tangential discussion would be: "What makes a good cleanup hitter?" Instead of simply looking at Bay's deficiencies, I would propose we try and make it tangible.

 

Watching the games for most of the past few years, this year and the playoffs, I would say that the word "aggressiveness" comes to mind. It seems like Victor Martinez and David Ortiz are the closest this team has to other teams' players who seem like legit #4 hitters. Martinez swings if it is close, often fouls it off, but is up there ripping. Youkilis looks more defensive to me in his approach, though I can't fault him for his philosophy of hitting because he's a great hitter. I don't want him to leave, by any stretch, just to have his skills be more suited to his style. #5 or #6 or #3 seem more suitable (even #2).

 

Perhaps it is a quality this FO likes, but I can't imagine that the masher I'm looking for would be up there looking for walks when he's the tying run. This Sox team is built with guys like that, which is great if you don't have 40+ HR power.

 

This.

 

I'm talking about a hitter who not only has power, but has little holes in his swing and is an aggressive but disciplined hitter.

[Dojji]

 

Is discipline a benchmark for not having holes in your swing?

 

Well then Adam Dunn must be the actual benchmark for non-exploitable hitters.

 

That does make it an interesting question doesn't it? What is a "vulnerable" hitter and how big a problem is that compared to overall talent level?

[Dipre]

That does make it an interesting question doesn't it? What is a "vulnerable" hitter and how big a problem is that compared to overall talent level?

 

Read above.

 

An aggressive hitter who doesn't have many holes in his swing and has above-average power and plate discipline.

 

Youk would fit the bill perfectly if he wasn't up there looking for walks when he's got the responsibility to bring 'em home.

[Dojji]

This.

 

I'm talking about a hitter who not only has power, but has little holes in his swing and is an aggressive but disciplined hitter.

 

That lets Youks out doesn't it? Granted he's gotten more aggressive in recent years, but he also strikes out more than a little.

[Dipre]

That lets Youks out doesn't it? Granted he's gotten more aggressive in recent years' date=' but he also strikes out more than a little.[/quote']

 

Read last post.

 

He's not aggressive enough. Youk doesn't have that approach. Neither does Bay. Neither does Drew. Papi still has the approach, but he lacks the ability of his best years.

[Dojji]

Read above.

 

An aggressive hitter who doesn't have many holes in his swing and has above-average power and plate discipline.

 

Youk would fit the bill perfectly if he wasn't up there looking for walks when he's got the responsibility to bring 'em home.

 

That lets Adrian Gonzalez out. The power is for real, but the guy walks a ton, and not just IBB's, and strikes out about once in 6 AB's.

 

In fact I think the only guys left are Pablo Sandova and Prince Fielder.

[example1]

This.

 

I'm talking about a hitter who not only has power, but has little holes in his swing and is an aggressive but disciplined hitter.

 

There aren't a whole lot of guys who are like that.

 

I think this conversation has run its course. I believe there is agreement that resigning Bay is a necessity, given the concerns about being able to sign Holliday and the Yankees ability to swoop in, get Bay, and then leave the Sox contending with lots of other teams for Holliday, who may or may not even be open to playing in Boston without being drastically overpaid.

 

Dipre, I hear you saying that Holliday is your preferred hitter over Bay. I think I agree with you here, given track record, but I like Bay enough to want to just get him and be done with that soap opera.

 

Given that, would you be opposed to going aggressively after both? In this case, they are "only" FAs, which means that all prospects stay in the system to bolster the MLB club. The FO operates on a pendulum of wanting to bolster the system vs. wanting to improve the big club. I think we saw with Teixeira, the runs at Gonzalez and HWSNBN, and the ultimate acquisition of Victor, that the FO is in "get talent for the MLB club" mode right now. I hope that is true in FA too.

[Dipre]

That lets Adrian Gonzalez out. The power is for real, but the guy walks a ton, and not just IBB's, and strikes out about once in 6 AB's.

 

In fact I think the only guys left are Pablo Sandoval and Adam Lind by that standard.

 

Adrian Gonzales gets pitched around.

 

Don't make ******** arguments, sport.

[Dipre]

There aren't a whole lot of guys who are like that.

 

I think this conversation has run its course. I believe there is agreement that resigning Bay is a necessity, given the concerns about being able to sign Holliday and the Yankees ability to swoop in, get Bay, and then leave the Sox contending with lots of other teams for Holliday, who may or may not even be open to playing in Boston without being drastically overpaid.

 

Dipre, I hear you saying that Holliday is your preferred hitter over Bay. I think I agree with you here, given track record, but I like Bay enough to want to just get him and be done with that soap opera.

 

Given that, would you be opposed to going aggressively after both? In this case, they are "only" FAs, which means that all prospects stay in the system to bolster the MLB club. The FO operates on a pendulum of wanting to bolster the system vs. wanting to improve the big club. I think we saw with Teixeira, the runs at Gonzalez and HWSNBN, and the ultimate acquisition of Victor, that the FO is in "get talent for the MLB club" mode right now. I hope that is true in FA too.

 

I believe that may be the correct course of action actually.

[Dojji]

Adrian Gonzales gets pitched around.

 

That's something a lot of the guys you're looking for have in common. Even in good lineups, they're probably the guy other managers talk to their pitchers and say "don't let this guy beat you."

[Dipre]

That's something a lot of the guys you're looking for have in common. Even in good lineups' date=' they're probably the guy other managers talk to their pitchers and say "don't let this guy beat you."[/quote']

 

Is that a bad thing?

 

That's exactly the mentality we're looking for in other teams.

 

"Don't let that guy beat you" gives you free base runners in crucial situations, changes pitcher's game plans and overall changes the way other teams pitch to the rest of the lineup.

 

But wait, this is something we won't find in fangraphs, so i'll lose some sabermatric cred, not to mention that because of that, they are blatant lies.

 

Pujols get pitched around a lot, so i assume by that standard you don't want him?

[Dojji]

Given that, would you be opposed to going aggressively after both?

 

I like the idea, but our odds of actually getting both when other teams are also campaigning for the services of premium left fielders is not high. Let's not pretend we're the only horse in the race. that's just a way to set us up for disappointment.

 

If we play the field looking for both, there's a significant chance we could wind up with neither, especially if NYY lets both Matsui and Damon go and looks to fill their own left field position from free agency. Also the Mets and Tigers are obvious places that might go after a power-hitting LF, the Mariners are in play for either an LF or a DH or both, the Cardinals are going to go after a LF to replace Holliday, and that's just obvious places.

[example1]

That lets Adrian Gonzalez out. The power is for real, but the guy walks a ton, and not just IBB's, and strikes out about once in 6 AB's.

 

In fact I think the only guys left are Pablo Sandova and Prince Fielder.

 

Gonzalez is also only 27 and has increased HR production every season since he came in the league. He had 43 more PAs than Bay, yet struck out 53 fewer times this year. They both have holes, but Gonzalez is a different type of hitter (plus, he's LH).

[Dipre]

Gonzalez is also only 27 and has increased HR production every season since he came in the league. He had 43 more PAs than Bay' date=' yet struck out 53 fewer times this year. They both have holes, but Gonzalez is a different type of hitter (plus, he's LH).[/quote']

 

*sigh*

 

This.

[example1]

I like the idea, but our odds of actually getting both when other teams are also campaigning for the services of premium left fielders is not high. Let's not pretend we're the only horse in the race. that's just a way to set us up for disappointment.

 

If we play the field looking for both, there's a significant chance we could wind up with neither, especially if NYY lets both Matsui and Damon go and looks to fill their own left field position from free agency.

 

I think the Sox know a number that they could get Bay for and the deal could be done very quickly. I say, get that done, then make a hard run at Holliday. I'm not saying put your horse in both races, I"m saying get Bay done and then put your horse in Holliday's race.

[Dojji]

I think the Sox know a number that they could get Bay for and the deal could be done very quickly. I say' date=' get that done, then make a hard run at Holliday. I'm not saying put your horse in both races, I"m saying get Bay done and then put your horse in Holliday's race.[/quote']

 

Assuming you get him, where would you put him?

 

Do you seriously think this team is going to cut bait on Ortiz? I mean we might want them to but do you expect them to?

[Dojji]

Is that a bad thing?

 

That's exactly the mentality we're looking for in other teams.

 

"Don't let that guy beat you" gives you free base runners in crucial situations, changes pitcher's game plans and overall changes the way other teams pitch to the rest of the lineup.

 

But wait, this is something we won't find in fangraphs, so i'll lose some sabermatric cred, not to mention that because of that, they are blatant lies.

 

Pujols get pitched around a lot, so i assume by that standard you don't want him?

 

My point is simple. This is a guy who takes a lot of walks and strikes out about once every 6 at bats. Them pitching around him isn't really a good excuse. A guy like Adrian would be pitched around in a decent lineup as well. Your definition of a true #4 hitter does let Adrian out.

[Dipre]

My point is simple. This is a guy who takes a lot of walks and strikes out about once every 6 at bats. Them pitching around him isn't really a good excuse. A guy like Adrian would be pitched around in a decent lineup as well. Your definition of a true #4 hitter does let Adrian out.

 

O rly?

 

I say you're grasping at straws.

 

He has more power and strikes out less than Bay.

 

Him getting pitched around is a fact, and if you take him away from the SUCK that is SD and put him in a lineup like ours he gets pitched to a lot more.

 

Stop making ******** arguments, for the love of GOD.