Time to trade Takashi Saito?

[Dojji]

OK let's preface this with the obvious.

 

First, we know that Smoltz is coming back to the big leagues soon.

 

Second, we know that we have a strong, deep, effective bullpen.

 

Third, our optionable players -- Masterson, Bard and Green -- are all filling vital roles, and the only one of the three you can afford to send down right now is Masterson, which only makes sense if you still see him with a future in the rotation and want to get him stretched out.

 

Fourth, Saito is an older veteran signed to a short-term deal, and of all the men in our bullpen right now is the one the team is committed to the least. Also, having proven himself effective and healthy, Saito's trade value now goes up based on his reputation and possible value as a possible closer for a team in contention.

 

In other words, trading off a pitcher is a move that makes sense to clear space for Smoltz. With Delcarmen, Ramirez and Bard all looking solid, effective and durable we could afford to give someone like Hunter Jones a second shot without destroying the bullpen if it doesn't work out. Rather than making a move based on a player whose value is low, like Daisuke or Penny, hows about we trade a guy whose value is about as high as it could be under the circumstances? I guarantee we get a better return for Saito than for Penny, and I doubt I get much disagreement there. A guy with closing experience who's proven himself healthy and effective? Yeah, someone goes nuts for that -- Texas is a great candidate for example.

 

Personally I don't know if it's the perfect move, but it bears all the hallmarks of a good move, and might be the right move for the team.

[BSN07]

It they want value for him they will have to trade him. I don't think they risk offering him arb. So there goes any compensation as far as draft picks goes. If they could bring back something of value, not just a PTBNL, I say they should. It wasn't all that long ago we were discussing the the probability of him going a whole season with his arm issues. In all honesty the guys arm is a ticking time bomb. It may go next week, next month or next year, but eventually that sucker is gonna give.

[TheKilo]

Bard will get sent to AAA

[BSN07]

Bard will get sent to AAA

 

Sucks, but it's a likely scenario if no one is moved.

[Dojji]

That's as good a reason as any to trade Saito. takashi is a great pitcher but he doesn't have bard's stuff.

[BoSox21]

Third' date=' our optionable players -- Masterson, Bard and Green -- are all filling vital roles[/quote']

 

there are only 4 members of the bullpen filling vital roles, MDC, RR, Oki and Pap. the rest are the B team right now

[TheKilo]

Who's going to want Saito, a 39 y/o whose elbow is basically hanging by a thread and if he meets his incentives would be quite the expensive option?

 

If you still think you can trade him, what can you expect to get for him?

[Dipre]

How about, you know, not trading him and keeping the awesome that is our bullpen intact.

 

Just sayin'.

[Dojji]

Who's going to want Saito, a 39 y/o whose elbow is basically hanging by a thread and if he meets his incentives would be quite the expensive option?

 

If you still think you can trade him, what can you expect to get for him?

 

Someone in go for it mode who needed a closer for this year? i think Saito would be good for a decent prospect under those terms. Some teams do pay extra for closing experience.

 

How about, you know, not trading him and keeping the awesome that is our bullpen intact.

 

Just sayin'.

 

 

That one goes out the window when Smoltz comes up anyway, unless Daisuke goes on the DL either Bard or Masterson gets sent down.

[jacksonianmarch]

Dojji, you are gonna have to move a starter, either to the DL, the minors or another team. If you move a reliever off the team first, you are then going to run into a problem when you move one of your starters in that a hole will open up. And we all know that sometimes, in the playoffs, that last guy in the pen can be in the most critical spot. And I think both of our teams are playoff bound. Getting rid of someone who could be a big time boon to this team in the playoffs may not be in your best interests

[BSN07]

Dojji' date=' you are gonna have to move a starter, either to the DL, the minors or another team. If you move a reliever off the team first, you are then going to run into a problem when you move one of your starters in that a hole will open up. And we all know that sometimes, in the playoffs, that last guy in the pen can be in the most critical spot. And I think both of our teams are playoff bound. Getting rid of someone who could be a big time boon to this team in the playoffs may not be in your best interests[/quote']

 

Smoltz is on record as saying he won't mind pitching out of the BP. Smoltz>Saito IMO. But if they want to keep Smoltz in the rotation, I see your point.

[jacksonianmarch]

How do you know Smoltz is better than Saito? Remember, DiceK and Wang plowed through minor leaguers as well and both came up and struggled. So saying that a guy coming off major shoulder surgery is a better bet than a guy (granted with an injured elbow) who is doing it at the MLB level is a bit premature.

[BSN07]

How do you know Smoltz is better than Saito? Remember' date=' DiceK and Wang plowed through minor leaguers as well and both came up and struggled. So saying that a guy coming off major shoulder surgery is a better bet than a guy (granted with an injured elbow) who is doing it at the MLB level is a bit premature.[/quote']

 

OK maybe I should have said Smoltz has been the better pitcher.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not even there either. If you want to look at context, if you look at Saito's numbers in Dodger blue, his 2006 and 2007 were better than any season Smoltz put up out of the pen. Hell, he his 2007, he had a 0.72WHIP and 11K per 9IP. Saito at his best was one of the most dominant closers you will ever find. It just sucks for him that the majority of his career was spent in Japan.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not even there either. If you want to look at context, if you look at Saito's numbers in Dodger blue, his 2006 and 2007 were better than any season Smoltz put up out of the pen. Hell in 2007, he had a 0.72WHIP and 11K per 9IP. Saito at his best was one of the most dominant closers you will ever find. It just sucks for him that the majority of his career was spent in Japan.

[Cocos Disciples]

D-d-d-d-d-d-double post!

[CrespoBlows]

Patience.

 

Let's see what happens until the trade deadline, and then look at moving some players.

[Rdsxmbnt]

OK maybe I should have said Smoltz is a pitcher.

 

Correct.

[BSN07]

Patience.

 

Let's see what happens until the trade deadline, and then look at moving some players.

 

I agree. I have said all along I don't expect the Sox to make a move until late in July. Unless something drastic happens. Or they get blown away by an offer.

[ORS]

Here's his contract and incentives:

 

Base: $1.5M

Opening Day 25-man: $1.0M

Games (50, 55, 60, 65, 70): $0.5M ea - if all $2.5M

Games on 25-man (30, 60, 90, 120, 150): $0.5M ea - if all $2.5M

 

He's earned the first incentive, and the first two from the Games on 25-man Roster, so he's at $3.5M now. Through 65 games, he's pitched in 24, so he's on pace for 60 even. Let's assume that if he's traded, as a closer his usage goes up a little and he pitches in 65 games. That means he'd earn another $3.5M the rest of the season. I'd be willing to bet the Sox would trade him, if they wanted to do so, with their responsibility being the base + incentives earned to date, so the receiving team would only be on the hook for his remaining incentives, which would total $3.5M if my assumption is met.

 

In that scenario, the receiving team would get an established late game reliever at little to no risk. If he gets hurt, they owe him close to nothing because incentives won't be met. I'd say that makes him an attractive solution to their needs.

 

Re: draft compensation if he's retained and offered arb. There's a club option at the same base, with clauses for incentives and what happens if the option is declined. The incentive clause says that if the option is picked up, in 2010 he will earn any incentives that were unearned in 2009. This is pretty big, IMO. This means that if he finishes out the year healthy, he'll be dirt cheap next year. He'll have earned his Opening Day 25-man roster bonus for $1.0M, he'll have already earned the Game Appearance and Games on 25-man Roster incentives to the max of $2.5M (in my assumption, the 70 Game Appearances would still be unrealized, meaning a $0.5M bonus would still be out there in 2010). They have their closer for a base of $1.5M with no (or almost no) incentives. Very attractive. If the option is not picked up, the player is released outright (no arb offer, therefore no draft compensation).

 

So when you total it up, a team trading for Saito would be getting their potential closer for a max of $3.5M this year and $2.0M next year, with total protection from the risk of injury if it occurs before they pick up the option.

 

I'm sure that will garner some interest.

[Spudboy]

Patience.

 

Let's see what happens until the trade deadline, and then look at moving some players.

 

Agreed. There is absolutely no reason for the Sox to make a move at this point. Short stop seems to have stabilized, with Green playing the majority of the time. He's hitting in clutch situations and has not made too many defensive blunders of late.

 

Ortiz seems to be heading in the right direction. He may or may not be the Papi of yesteryear but he has been productive of late. No urgency at DH, at least for now.

 

Dice-K has been atrocious. He is the only performance issue on the staff.

 

A log-jam at Starting Pitching is a "problem". The Dice contract makes the issue more difficult for the FO to deal with . I don't see him on the DL or in the pen. Bard will likely be sent back to Pawtucket when Smoltz is activated. Too bad.

[matt9071]

How about, you know, not trading him and keeping the awesome that is our bullpen intact.

 

Just sayin'.

 

I agree you can never have enough good pitching

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

How about, you know, not trading him and keeping the awesome that is our bullpen intact.

 

Just sayin'.

I agree, we need the depth should Dice-K go on the DL.

[a700hitter]

I agree' date=' we need the depth should Dice-K go on the DL.[/quote']What if he doesn't go on the DL, but just continues to suck? Oh, I forgot. That would be impossible barring some terrible luck.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

What if he doesn't go on the DL' date=' but just continues to suck? Oh, I forgot. That would be impossible barring some terrible luck.[/quote']

Non-sensical.

[a700hitter]

Non-sensical.

Hey, it's your theory, not mine.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Here's his contract and incentives:

 

Base: $1.5M

Opening Day 25-man: $1.0M

Games (50, 55, 60, 65, 70): $0.5M ea - if all $2.5M

Games on 25-man (30, 60, 90, 120, 150): $0.5M ea - if all $2.5M

 

He's earned the first incentive, and the first two from the Games on 25-man Roster, so he's at $3.5M now. Through 65 games, he's pitched in 24, so he's on pace for 60 even. Let's assume that if he's traded, as a closer his usage goes up a little and he pitches in 65 games. That means he'd earn another $3.5M the rest of the season. I'd be willing to bet the Sox would trade him, if they wanted to do so, with their responsibility being the base + incentives earned to date, so the receiving team would only be on the hook for his remaining incentives, which would total $3.5M if my assumption is met.

 

In that scenario, the receiving team would get an established late game reliever at little to no risk. If he gets hurt, they owe him close to nothing because incentives won't be met. I'd say that makes him an attractive solution to their needs.

 

Re: draft compensation if he's retained and offered arb. There's a club option at the same base, with clauses for incentives and what happens if the option is declined. The incentive clause says that if the option is picked up, in 2010 he will earn any incentives that were unearned in 2009. This is pretty big, IMO. This means that if he finishes out the year healthy, he'll be dirt cheap next year. He'll have earned his Opening Day 25-man roster bonus for $1.0M, he'll have already earned the Game Appearance and Games on 25-man Roster incentives to the max of $2.5M (in my assumption, the 70 Game Appearances would still be unrealized, meaning a $0.5M bonus would still be out there in 2010). They have their closer for a base of $1.5M with no (or almost no) incentives. Very attractive. If the option is not picked up, the player is released outright (no arb offer, therefore no draft compensation).

 

So when you total it up, a team trading for Saito would be getting their potential closer for a max of $3.5M this year and $2.0M next year, with total protection from the risk of injury if it occurs before they pick up the option.

 

I'm sure that will garner some interest.

 

Thanks, dude. I think my brain just melted.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Hey' date=' it's your theory, not mine.[/quote']

My theory is that the only way he can perform badly is via bad luck? No, I think that's the primary reason, aside from maybe injury, why he's been awful thus far.

 

 

Keep twisting words around, **** muscle.

[Dipre]

My theory is that the only way he can perform badly is via bad luck? No, I think that's the primary reason, aside from maybe injury, why he's been awful thus far.

 

 

Keep twisting words around, **** muscle.

 

The choice of words is interesting, yet very accurate.

 

Hmmm...........

[a700hitter]

My theory is that the only way he can perform badly is via bad luck? No, I think that's the primary reason, aside from maybe injury, why he's been awful thus far.

 

 

Keep twisting words around, **** muscle.

Little boy. Have you ever seen a real **** that wasn't on your computer.