Smoltz update

[yankeessuck013]

anyone know who is pitching the second game of the double header on thursday at syracuse?

 

I know smoltz is pitching the first game. I'll be going so just wondering if it was going to be buchholz or bowden?

[yankeessuck013]

Smoltz's line tonight at Syracuse:

 

6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER (1 HR), 1 BB, 5 K

[Dojji]

I don't think that matters. The team's going to look at Smoltz's overall health more than any individual performance. if he's ready, they'll act based on that whether he gets bombed in his last start or not.

[yankeessuck013]

He threw 56 strikes and 14 balls. The numbers weren't as relevant to Smoltz as was his command. "All in all, today was one of my better outings in terms of getting all my pitches going in the same direction,'' he said.

[example1]

It will be interesting to see what they do with Smoltz and the current rotation.

 

My preferred current 5 man rotation:

 

Beckett

Lester

Wakefield

Penny

Smoltz

 

Dice should get his s*** straight at AAA. Unfortunately, this isn't allowed per his contract.

 

My prefered rotation in the post season:

 

Beckett

Lester

Smoltz

Dice-K

 

(Wake as spot-starter)

 

My prefered 2010 rotation:

 

Beckett

Lester

Dice-K

Buchholz

Wake/Smoltz (better in 2009)

 

Preferred 2011 Rotation

 

Lester (age 27 season)

Beckett (enters age 31 season signed to an uncharacteristic 5 year, $70m deal perhaps??)

Matsuzaka (still just his age 30 season)

Buchholz (age 26)

Bowden (age 24)

 

This group has unbelieveable potential.

[Teddyballgame10]

To start June 25th vs Nats.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4264140

 

Mentions possibility of 6 man rotation.

[Cocos Disciples]

It's nice that he gets to ease back in with another MiLB start against the Nats.

[Dipre]

It's nice that he gets to ease back in with another MiLB start against the Nats.

 

Lol don't kid yourselves.

 

The Nats can hit.

 

They rank a not-so-awful 19th in runs scored.

[Cocos Disciples]

Pssst: 19th is only good when you're comparing it to every other aspect of their team.

[jacksonianmarch]

Example, what are you smoking? If Beckett continues to pitch well and put up another 2 200IP seasons with another sub 4 ERA and 18 or 19 wins per, he is going to look at what CC got as a benchmark for young, power pitchers in their prime. I dont think he'll get 7 yrs 161 mil, but I assume it would be in the range of 5-7 yrs and around 18-20 mil per. So your deams of 5yrs 70 mil are off by about 1-2 yrs and 50-70 mil.

[example1]

Example' date=' what are you smoking? If Beckett continues to pitch well and put up another 2 200IP seasons with another sub 4 ERA and 18 or 19 wins per, he is going to look at what CC got as a benchmark for young, power pitchers in their prime. I dont think he'll get 7 yrs 161 mil, but I assume it would be in the range of 5-7 yrs and around 18-20 mil per. So your deams of 5yrs 70 mil are off by about 1-2 yrs and 50-70 mil.[/quote']

 

I could see the Sox possibly going to 17 a year for him, but they're not going to make him the highest paid player on the team by 6 million a year. That money is simply too valuable invested in draft picks and 6 years of player development time. I think that aside from the absurd and stupid Yankees and the truly elite players (Pujols, for instance) the days of 20m a year for a player are gone for awhile. Beckett is good, but he's not a HOF caliber pitcher at this stage. Perhaps in a few years the discussion will be different, but right now he's a top tier, all star caliber pitcher who has yet to put it together, year after year.

 

You may be right that he will demand more than the Sox are willing to offer and frankly I won't have a problem letting him walk if that is the case. He's a good pitcher, I personally coveted him long before he came to the Sox, but the Sox FO tends to be right and the greedy players tend not to live up to their contracts. If they decided to wait a year and offer 14-16m a year to someone with less "success" under his belt (say, Matt Cain--2011 option--or Felix Hernandez--2012 FA) I won't be pissed off at them.

[CrespoBlows]

Assuming the economy doesn't continue to tank, I'd say that Beckett gets close to what Burnett got.

[Dojji]

Burnett is a fair comp. But Beckett is just that little bit better.

 

Any idea what the roster countermove is for Smoltz?

[a700hitter]

Burnett is a fair comp. But Beckett is just that little bit better.

 

Any idea what the roster countermove is for Smoltz?

I think they will option Bard to the minors.

[Dojji]

That would utterly suck. Bard has proven he belongs. I'd rather trade Saito

[a700hitter]

That would utterly suck. Bard has proven he belongs. I'd rather trade Saito

He got a taste. He learned while he was here, but he is not ready to be a consistent contributor. He'll be back soon enough, either because of injury or trade. Right now, if I were managing, he would be my last option in the bullpen. Saito would be ahead of him. I wouldn't be in a rush to trade Saito unless there is an overwhelming offer. He has experience closing games. He is a seasoned vet with good stuff. He healthy and he's cheap. The guy is a tremendous value. The Sox have more time for Bard to develop.

[Dojji]

Disagree very strongly. Bard isn't Hansen and he's looking very much like the real thing. He has struggled and bounced back, both from stuff within one inning and from an awful performance. And even without Saito how "regularly" would he have to contribute with all of Papelbon, Ramirez, Delcarmen, Masterson and Okajima in the pen?

[a700hitter]

Disagree very strongly. Bard isn't Hansen and he's looking very much like the real thing. He has struggled and bounced back' date=' both from stuff within one inning and from an awful performance. And even without Saito how "regularly" would he have to contribute with all of Papelbon, Ramirez, Delcarmen, Masterson and Okajima in the pen?[/quote']How regularly would he have to contribute? Probably not often, but there would be times due to overuse of the pen or extra innings that he might be asked to pitch in a critical game or situation. I'd rather have Saito in those spots than Bard as of now. If Bard costs you a game or two that Sito would have saved or won, that could cost the team a playoff spot. As I pointed out, Saito is a tremendous value and a very good pitcher. You don't trade him just to open a spot for Bard, who is not as good a pitcher as Saito right now. That would just be foolish. Keep the better pitcher and option the kid to the minors where he will continue to develop.

[BoSox21]

John Smoltz met the media prior to the Red Sox' game with the Nationals, Wednesday night, at Nationals Park, touching on his emotions and intentions heading into his first start of the season, Thursday against Washington. “It will be a success. I came back with this mindset," he said. "It ain’t about stories, it ain’t about to say I can do it again. This is about pitching and getting hitters out. The end result is going to be that. And in three, four, five starts from now, I think you’ll see why I feel the way I do.”

 

Rob Bradford - WEEI.com

 

sick...

[jacksonianmarch]

Disagree very strongly. Bard isn't Hansen and he's looking very much like the real thing. He has struggled and bounced back' date=' both from stuff within one inning and from an awful performance. And even without Saito how "regularly" would he have to contribute with all of Papelbon, Ramirez, Delcarmen, Masterson and Okajima in the pen?[/quote']

 

Bard very well could be a Hansen. I dont think you remember Hansen that well. He threw 96-98mph sinkers with a sicker slider than Bard features. Thing is, he was abused. They brought him up in yr 1 for a taste. Then, they started putting him into big spots on a regular basis and he couldnt handle it. Then, they sent him down after the fan base turned on him only to bring him up and use him in big spots again. That is not how you break in a wide eyed rookie. Some of them can handle it (see Papelbon). Others need to show that their stuff can play at that level before they can handle tough spots against premier hitters. The sox are doing the right thing with Bard this time. They have kept him out of big spots against the better teams and have removed the gas pedal in terms of their development. In short, I think they were trying to turn Hansen into their closer immediately. I think in Bard's case, they are hoping to turn him into a closer eventually. The lack of urgency will help his development

[Dojji]

Bard very well could be a Hansen.

 

Well, no. The rest of your post amounts to a pile of excuse-making for Hansen. Bottom line, Hansen's command wasn't as advertised and it doesn't matter how hard you throw if you can't put it where you want it.

 

Bard's already proven he's made of sterner stuff than Hansen after he had a mental breakdown in the minors '07 and bounced back. Bard had a ready made excuse for falling completely apart and instead he turned himself around, accepted his new role, and dominated. That's the difference.

 

Also, your own post argues against your premise. Bard has not been rushed into anything, he's in the majors so quick because he blew competition in the minors away last year and demonstrated significant improvement in his command this year. He's appeared in a couple big spots not for lack of options but because he's earned the right by consistently good performances. It's a significant difference.

[BoSox21]

I think Craig Hansen is a testament to the importance of the mental makeup of a pitcher. I think the Sox FO have used him as a cautionary tale and are factoring that in when developing their pitchers.

[Paradisecity]

Bard very well could be a Hansen. I dont think you remember Hansen that well. He threw 96-98mph sinkers with a sicker slider than Bard features. Thing is' date=' he was abused. They brought him up in yr 1 for a taste. Then, they started putting him into big spots on a regular basis and he couldnt handle it. Then, they sent him down after the fan base turned on him only to bring him up and use him in big spots again. That is not how you break in a wide eyed rookie. Some of them can handle it (see Papelbon). Others need to show that their stuff can play at that level before they can handle tough spots against premier hitters. The sox are doing the right thing with Bard this time. They have kept him out of big spots against the better teams and have removed the gas pedal in terms of their development. In short, I think they were trying to turn Hansen into their closer immediately. I think in Bard's case, they are hoping to turn him into a closer eventually. The lack of urgency will help his development[/quote']

 

 

I remember it going this way too. If I remember correctly, the sox didnt really have other viable options either. At this time, we have so many options that it would be silly to treat Bard in a similar manner.

[jacksonianmarch]

you arent really thinking this morning are you. Are you really saying that Hansen's location isnt as good as Bard's. Really? I am sorry, but Hansen could find the plate with regularity. Bard has a major history of missing the plate and he's walked 9 in 15IP. So its not like he's the picture of control

 

Sorry Dise, didnt see your post. This message is for Dojji

[jacksonianmarch]

I think Craig Hansen is a testament to the importance of the mental makeup of a pitcher. I think the Sox FO have used him as a cautionary tale and are factoring that in when developing their pitchers.

 

Not all pitchers have the kicking babies, punching kittens and punting dogs mentality on the mound like Papelbon does. Some of them, despite their looks and their stuff, are puppy dogs on the inside and just need some positive reinforcement. Hansen got none of it. IIRC, he was the closer for a short period of time, even though he showed he did not deserve the honor and i remember the yankees just going to town on him. That ended it for him in Boston. He was booed off the field and that was the last I saw of him. That is not how you bring a pitcher along.

[BoSox21]

I'm not saying a pitcher needs to think he's the baddest motherf***er alive to be successful but they do need to believe in their ability, trust their stuff and be able to forget mistakes about as soon as they happen to be a reliable pitcher. I'd be more worried about Bard's control had he not shown improvement of his BB/9 every year he's been in the system from 9.4 in 2007, 3.5 in 2008 and 2.8 in 2009. He's only 24 and I see no reason why his control won't continue to improve after a few lumps in the majors. The biggest thing in all this Bard vs. Hansen stuff is that Bard has earned his spot in the show, Hansen never did.

[jacksonianmarch]

I certainly agree with that last statement. I do think control and repetition come into play here. With Bard, his stuff is so good, that inferior hitters wont battle him at all. This means that although he might go 3-2 on a hitter, all he needs to do is get close to the plate and he's got an out. In the bigs, the batter can battle more and require that the pitcher hit the target more often, which seems to be Bard's problem. I still think he is a serious work in progress, but he wont get anything out of being in the minors.

[Dojji]

you arent really thinking this morning are you. Are you really saying that Hansen's location isnt as good as Bard's. Really?

 

Umm, yes really. There's more to location than balls and strikes. WHERE you miss is important

 

I am sorry, but Hansen could find the plate with regularity. Bard has a major history of missing the plate and he's walked 9 in 15IP. So its not like he's the picture of control

 

While true, Bard doesn't make a lot of mistakes in the zone, and that's reflected in his numbers too. If he misses, it's a ball. WHEN Hansen misses, it gets clobbered.

 

Also, consider the standard we're applying here. I'm not exactly claiming that Bard is Takashi Saito, just that he doesn't suck as bad as Hansen.

[BoSox21]

With Bard' date=' his stuff is so good, that inferior hitters wont battle him at all. This means that although he might go 3-2 on a hitter, all he needs to do is get close to the plate and he's got an out. In the bigs, the batter can battle more and require that the pitcher hit the target more often, which seems to be Bard's problem. I still think he is a serious work in progress, but he wont get anything out of being in the minors.[/quote']

 

I agree with that but is that all that different than the problem the vast majority of young pitchers with awesome stuff face? Joba Chamberlain comes to mind as an example. I don't see is as a reason to be overly pessimistic about Bard's chances of being a dominant reliever as opposed to a normal part of his development.

[jacksonianmarch]

Chamberlain never had control problems until he was stretched out into the rotation in the bigs. In the minors, he never walked people and in 07 when he was setting up, he didnt walk people. Bard is different, IMO.