First Homerun: David Ortiz or one of our Pitchers

[BSN07]

Ever heard of "swapping bad contracts"?

 

How does that make them better off?

 

 

They might if they eat the contract' date=' or if the Red Sox include a top prospect.[/quote']

 

So to get Ortiz out of town they will have to include a top prospect? And then they will have to give up even more top prospects to replace him? I don't see how the FO would see that as more positive move over just keeping Ortiz and giving the AB's to Carter or Lars(only if he really really started to hit).

 

I mean I know the Sox shipped out prospects to move Manny. But they weren't top notch guys. Moss and Hansen where both expendable. I don't see the Sox FO doing that with any top prospects. Unless it is a trade bringing back a legit player. Whether or not that's a hitter(current need) or a SP,then with some top prospects I could see Ortiz being an add on so to speak.

[CrespoBlows]

 

 

 

So to get Ortiz out of town they will have to include a top prospect? And then they will have to give up even more top prospects to replace him? I don't see how the FO would see that as more positive move over just keeping Ortiz and giving the AB's to Carter or Lars(only if he really really started to hit).

 

The person that would be coming back in the Ortiz deal would be the guy replacing Ortiz.

[example1]

They might if they eat the contract' date=' or if the Red Sox include a top prospect.[/quote']

 

Just to continue this line of thought.... Maybe Billy Beane dealing Matt Holliday for Ortiz and a mid-level prospect with lots of upside (say, Reddick or Kalish). Holliday may not sign a longer term deal, but it could be worth a shot. Holliday looks pretty bad with Oakland right now, but I think he's a better hitter than he's shown (and is starting to turn it on a bit).

 

He could do very well in Fenway. Meanwhile, Ortiz would give Oakland a "fan draw" type player who can still be in the center of their lineup, just like Holliday but with more drawing power (which is what it is all about for OAK in my opinion).

 

I'm not saying it would happen, but I wouldn't be disappointed if they could move 2 years of Ortiz and a non-important but good prospect for a shot at Holliday for a longer term deal.

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Drew

Bay

Youkilis

Holliday

Lowell

Varitek

Lowrie/Lugo

 

It's a bit RHH heavy, but that may be inevitable if they have to replace Papi. Not a ton of power LH bats out there.

[Cocos Disciples]

Holliday's home/road splits don't thrill me.

[BSN07]

Holliday's home/road splits don't thrill me.

 

Playing in Oakland will hurt anyone.

 

I think he could do well in Boston. Lowell type numbers. 20+HR, lot's of doubles. And that is much better then what Papi is giving the team currently. Plus they can let him walk if they want and collect the picks. Unless he signs with the Yankees and they have already given away all their picks.

[Cocos Disciples]

I mean his H/R splits in Colorado as well. Under .800 OPS on the road.

[CrespoBlows]

I'd trade Ortiz for Giambi right now.

[das11209]

I'd trade Ortiz for Giambi right now.

 

I will also trade him for Adam Dunn ( all hypothetical of course).

[BoSox21]

I mean his H/R splits in Colorado as well. Under .800 OPS on the road.

 

he has drastically improved his road splits in the past few years though. .892 OPS in 2008 and .860 OPS in 2007

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

I wouldn't trade him for Holliday, we'd have to overpay drastically to keep him after this year, and lefty power is where we need help, we're fine on the right side.

[MannybeingBarryBonds]

Jeff Bailey is the answer to the problem

[example1]

I wouldn't trade him for Holliday' date=' we'd have to overpay drastically to keep him after this year, and lefty power is where we need help, we're fine on the right side.[/quote']

 

The lefty point is a valid one, but who do you see being able to fill that need any time soon?

 

The lack of significant lefty upgrades is just one more reason they ran so hard after Teixeira during the off season. Unless someone like Mauer or Sizemore or Josh Hamilton (ugh) is available, I just don't see the Sox spending out their ass to acquire that bat.

 

Honestly, Lars Anderson might be the best hope they have for a serious LH threat in the next few years. I'd be willing to bet that JD Drew's lefthandedness alone was a big reason the Sox went after him when they did, and I bet Papi will be kept because of the lack of other viable options.

[jacksonianmarch]

Just to continue this line of thought.... Maybe Billy Beane dealing Matt Holliday for Ortiz and a mid-level prospect with lots of upside (say, Reddick or Kalish). Holliday may not sign a longer term deal, but it could be worth a shot. Holliday looks pretty bad with Oakland right now, but I think he's a better hitter than he's shown (and is starting to turn it on a bit).

 

He could do very well in Fenway. Meanwhile, Ortiz would give Oakland a "fan draw" type player who can still be in the center of their lineup, just like Holliday but with more drawing power (which is what it is all about for OAK in my opinion).

 

I'm not saying it would happen, but I wouldn't be disappointed if they could move 2 years of Ortiz and a non-important but good prospect for a shot at Holliday for a longer term deal.

 

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Drew

Bay

Youkilis

Holliday

Lowell

Varitek

Lowrie/Lugo

 

It's a bit RHH heavy, but that may be inevitable if they have to replace Papi. Not a ton of power LH bats out there.

 

there is no way in holy hell that Beane deals Holliday for a washed up Ortiz. No way in holy hell. Beane got Holliday, Cabrera and Giambi in a hope that the offense and pitching talent could put them into the playoffs. If it doesnt work, there will be a firesale and a TON of teams will be in on Holliday. Figure Holliday started out really slowly, but has 4 homes in his last 11 games and we should start to see the average come up. If Beane decides to move him, he will get a king's ransom at the deadline. If he doesnt, he is guaranteed to get 2 picks in the top 40 of next yrs draft.

[jacksonianmarch]

The lefty point is a valid one, but who do you see being able to fill that need any time soon?

 

The lack of significant lefty upgrades is just one more reason they ran so hard after Teixeira during the off season. Unless someone like Mauer or Sizemore or Josh Hamilton (ugh) is available, I just don't see the Sox spending out their ass to acquire that bat.

 

Honestly, Lars Anderson might be the best hope they have for a serious LH threat in the next few years. I'd be willing to bet that JD Drew's lefthandedness alone was a big reason the Sox went after him when they did, and I bet Papi will be kept because of the lack of other viable options.

 

Lars has hit a real rough patch in AA right now, hitting .236/.293/.368 with 2 dingers. The sox were smart not to rush him. He clearly wasnt ready.

[WhiskeyBreath]

Jeff Bailey is the answer to the problem

 

[TedWilliams101]

I will also trade him for Adam Dunn ( all hypothetical of course).

 

I would absolutely LOVE it if we could replace Papi with Dunn. I can see all the fans getting pissed at him after the 170th K of the year.

[das11209]

I would absolutely LOVE it if we could replace Papi with Dunn. I can see all the fans getting pissed at him after the 170th K of the year.

 

In spite of all strikeouts - Dunn's OBP is phenomenal along with his power. And I don't buy into the Ricardi's assessment last year that he is anti-clutch.

 

If you are making a case for replacing Ortiz as off now - well the way he is batting at DH/3rd spot - it is not too hard is it? Ortiz from 2003-2007 can't be replaced by Dunn or anybody.

[TedWilliams101]

Yes, I do actually love Dunn. Despite his ridiculous strikeout totals and low BA, he is good for 100+ walks a season and a .380ish OBP. This is something to the idea that he isn't clutch, his average and OPS in RISP, 2out RISP, etc, is a bit lower than his career numbers, but really not enough to worry.

 

I would be for replacing Ortiz if his power numbers don't come back by the all-star break/trade deadline. I think it would be time to move on at that point. I do hope it doesn't get to that, but i'm not optimistic.

[ORS]

....clutch.....

____________

 

.....Flying Spaghetti Monster.....

Confused?

[TedWilliams101]

???

[ORS]

The FSM mocks religion as a manmade fairytale devoid of reason and logic. "Clutch" is a similar bit of hocus pocus. Reason and analysis have determined it is most likely a manmade fantasty. I sense internal conflict.

 

Anyway, the point is, if you like Dunn and want to make a statistical case for him, that's all good. Just leave the fantasy at the door.

[TedWilliams101]

lol. I agree with you somewhat. I do think that, for the most part, the idea of "clutch" in baseball doesn't exist. However, I do believe there are some cases where clutch does exist. There are some people who handle pressure better than others and that's where "clutch" comes into play. There are some ball players who don't perform as well under pressure (as in bases loaded, 2 out, trailing in the game, etc). However, for the most part, I don't think that is an issue for the good/great hitters.

 

I believe people exaggerate the idea of "clutch". It does exist, to some point, but to the extent that a player is much better in pressure situations than normal situations. For instance, I don't believe it would be possible for a hitter like Adam Dunn to be a .300 hitter with RISP while a .240 hitter overall. I do, though, believe it is possible for someone to be a .275 hitter overall but struggle in pressure situations, but again, we aren't talking about great players. Adam Dunn I would consider a good, solid player. I certainly wouldn't call him one of the top, elite, hitters, though, so I don't expect him to be clutch. I really just think people misuse the word clutch. Great hitters are great because they are clutch. They handle pressure situations just as well as any other.

 

Now, I do believe clutch actually exists in some other sports. Statistics do back up that clutch exists in basketball and NFL Quarterbacks. For the NBA, there are many players who do in fact dial it up in the end of close games, putting up numbers that are much better than they do in the previous 43 minutes of games. King James is one of those guys. In the NFL, there are Quarterbacks who play much better in pressure situations, such as Hasselbeck and Warner. They have consistently put up better numbers late in close games, as well as big playoff games, than they do during the first 3-3/12 quarters. Then you have the guys who fall apart in pressure situations (Brett Favre).

[Mr Crunchy]

Who is going to take Ortiz for Adam Dunn?

Adam Dunn makes Rob Deere look like a contact hitter.

The power #s are impressive in that little league field he owned in Cincinatti,40/100 is great but can he hit the ball into the right field bleachers in fenway against AL pitching?

The right field line will be a gimme but that wall moves out quickly and a lot of those 375ft shots are caught in fenways death valley.

He will certainly be protected in this lineup but nobody is taking Ortiz in this stage of the game unless he goes on an ass kicking tear.

[Dipre]

Who is going to take Ortiz for Adam Dunn?

Adam Dunn makes Rob Deere look like a contact hitter.

The power #s are impressive in that little league field he owned in Cincinatti,40/100 is great but can he hit the ball into the right field bleachers in fenway against AL pitching?

The right field line will be a gimme but that wall moves out quickly and a lot of those 375ft shots are caught in fenways death valley.

He will certainly be protected in this lineup but nobody is taking Ortiz in this stage of the game unless he goes on an ass kicking tear.

 

And if he does, why would we trade him?

[das11209]

And if he does' date=' why would we trade him?[/quote']

 

Best time to trade Ortiz was last off-season - we could have got fair value and could have signed Dunn. There would have been lot of hue and cry from RSN - but Theo is used to all that (Nomar trade).

[TheKilo]

Best time to trade Ortiz was last off-season - we could have got fair value and could have signed Dunn. There would have been lot of hue and cry from RSN - but Theo is used to all that (Nomar trade).

 

Because you were lining up calling for an Ortiz trade, right?

[Dipre]

Because you were lining up calling for an Ortiz trade' date=' right?[/quote']

 

Hindsight fail.

[das11209]

Because you were lining up calling for an Ortiz trade' date=' right?[/quote']

 

I hardly login off-season ( too busy) and both of us were lining up for getting Tex as far as I remember.

 

Did you see anything wrong with what I said?

[TedWilliams101]

Who is going to take Ortiz for Adam Dunn?

Adam Dunn makes Rob Deere look like a contact hitter.

The power #s are impressive in that little league field he owned in Cincinatti,40/100 is great but can he hit the ball into the right field bleachers in fenway against AL pitching?

The right field line will be a gimme but that wall moves out quickly and a lot of those 375ft shots are caught in fenways death valley.

He will certainly be protected in this lineup but nobody is taking Ortiz in this stage of the game unless he goes on an ass kicking tear.

 

Have you ever actually watched Adam Dunn play? He has raw power the equivalent of WMP. He doesn't just cheap HRs, a lot of them go a LONG way. One of the reason's he strikes out a whole lot is because of his hard swing and him taking so many pitches.

 

Also, we don't actually think the Nats would just take Ortiz for Dunn. Then again, maybe the Nats are really just that dumb....

[Dojji]

Another guy you might look at is Jack Cust. He strikes out more than Dunn if that's possible but he has at least as much power. And we know t hat Beane will always listen to a good trade proposal.

 

Last year he led the league in both walks and strikeouts and began the legend of the Jack Cust Hat Trick -- a strikeout, a walk, and a bomb in the course of a single game..