Daisuke: should we be worried?

[yeszir]

I know its just one start, but is it possible the WBC took something out of him. The HRs is what really worries me, especially with his walks.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/7775_P_daily_full_4_20090408.png

 

Courtesy of fangraphs, this compares his 07 and 08 season HR trends. Cutting down on the HRs clearly accounted for some of the 1.50 era swing last year.

 

Which Matsuzaka are we going to see this year?

[stocker323]

I've never been a fan of Dice-K, even with the stats he put up last year. He's just too agonizing to watch. The HR's are obviously a concern. Wait til he starts giving them up when he puts more people on base (which he always does). I think he'll do better against weaker lineups, but we expected to get a pitcher who could dominate.

[Cocos Disciples]

I mean, he'll definitely regress from last year. I'm always hesitant to make judgments based on the first few games. So yeah, I'm worried, but not really much more worried than I was before.

[yeszir]

And to be fair, his HR #'s were almost off of this chart in the beginning of 08.

[Dojji]

You were right in your first post: It's one start. Daisuke has had a ton of starts worse than this, heck his opening day performance last year was nearly as bad. It's just one of those things that happens in baseball. THis is only a real problem if it tempts Daisuke to nibble even more.

 

If only he could get that 4-5 MPH back that he had when he first came to the States.

[Redguitar985]

I remember people were worried about him after his first start in Japan last year. I say his HR issues today should definitely be watched but agree that you can't base a lot off of one game, so we'll just have to wait and see.

 

What drives me crazy about Dice-K is that he pitched so well in both the '06 and '09 WBC's, had a generation named after him in Japan (I've heard that in Japan, people born in the same decade he was are called part of the "Matsuzaka Generation"), and has had so much success over there, and yet it just doesn't seem to be translating here. I figure it must be because he has to change his training and mentality somehow when he's with the Red Sox. But is there anyway around this? Are we going to have to get used to him walking everybody and struggling to get out of jams every year?

[Dojji]

Frankly Daisuke was fine at first in the States. Something changed around August of 07

[TheKilo]

From what I heard he just didn't have any real good "stuff" today, I hope it's a one start thing but I'm going to be concerned about a dead arm from the WBC for a while.

[Dojji]

I hope if he's hurting he actually tells someone so we can let someone who's actually healthy and capable take his starts.

[David Bowie]

The WBC didn't take s*** out of him. He had his good years but he's pretty much over the hill now.

[Gom]

I'd worry about Dice-K and Lester.

 

Not because of their starts per se, it's one start. However, Lester had one full-season, and the league knows him now. I think he'll be a very good pitcher, but expecting him to repeat last year's performance may be a stretch.

 

Dice-K is the John Wetteland of starting pitchers. Sooner or later, it will catch up to him. However, I expect Beckett to reclaim his position as one of the best pitchers in baseball, and Smoltz is a dynamite pitcher. I fully expect the Red Sox to have as good a rotation as the Yankees.

 

I also fully expect the Yankee pen to match up with the Red Sox. The Yankee bullpen may not have the names, but I wouldn't be surprised if Coke was the 3rd best pitcher after Riverabon or Papelera. The Rays...even though we slept on them last year...they may trump both our teams with ease. I'm not a Percival fan, but imagine David Price as their closer come July? Scary s***.

[Cocos Disciples]

The WBC didn't take s*** out of him. He had his good years but he's pretty much over the hill now.

 

He's 28 years old, I doubt he's over the hill.

[David Bowie]

He's 28 years old' date=' I doubt he's over the hill.[/quote']

 

He's also asian. They don't last as long as whites or blacks.

[TheKilo]

Coke? Really Gom?

[Gom]

Coke? Really Gom?

 

Yeah. Seriously. I really like the kid. He's murder on lefties, and has a plus fastball to use on righties. The homerun he gave up to Izturis should have been caught by Damon, and went all of 345 feet. I think he's gonna be real good.

[jacksonianmarch]

Back to the topic at hand. I would never make inferences on the first game of the yr. The only thing I will say about DiceK is what I always say about him. He puts too many runners on base to repeat a sub 3ERA. It just wont happen. Eventually, those flyouts to the track will eek over the fence and his runs allowed will skyrocket. He lives on the edge every single start and today he got burned. But I dont think you should be down on him. Even if he gets burned a few times, his stuff is good enough to turn a 1.4 WHIP into a 4 something ERA and still be useful.

 

One thing the sox should have done awhile ago, though, is change his approach. Take the opportunity of a shakeoff out of DiceK's hands. Force him to throw the 3-1 fastball, make him throw junk when ahead 0-2 and make him be more conventional. With his stuff and his depth of his repertoire, he could be dangerous if his approach were to change

[Cocos Disciples]

Back to the topic at hand. I would never make inferences on the first game of the yr. The only thing I will say about DiceK is what I always say about him. He puts too many runners on base to repeat a sub 3ERA. It just wont happen. Eventually' date=' those flyouts to the track will eek over the fence and his runs allowed will skyrocket. He lives on the edge every single start and today he got burned. But I dont think you should be down on him. [b']Even if he gets burned a few times, his stuff is good enough to turn a 1.4 WHIP into a 4 something ERA and still be useful. [/b]

 

One thing the sox should have done awhile ago, though, is change his approach. Take the opportunity of a shakeoff out of DiceK's hands. Force him to throw the 3-1 fastball, make him throw junk when ahead 0-2 and make him be more conventional. With his stuff and his depth of his repertoire, he could be dangerous if his approach were to change

 

This is pretty close to what I predicted.

[Dojji]

Back to the topic at hand. I would never make inferences on the first game of the yr. The only thing I will say about DiceK is what I always say about him. He puts too many runners on base to repeat a sub 3ERA. It just wont happen. Eventually, those flyouts to the track will eek over the fence and his runs allowed will skyrocket. He lives on the edge every single start and today he got burned. But I dont think you should be down on him. Even if he gets burned a few times, his stuff is good enough to turn a 1.4 WHIP into a 4 something ERA and still be useful.

 

One thing the sox should have done awhile ago, though, is change his approach. Take the opportunity of a shakeoff out of DiceK's hands. Force him to throw the 3-1 fastball, make him throw junk when ahead 0-2 and make him be more conventional. With his stuff and his depth of his repertoire, he could be dangerous if his approach were to change

 

Which could also have the effect of taking him out of his game and rendering him absolutely useless. Not that you'd be complaining of course.

[Dojji]

Yeah. Seriously. I really like the kid. He's murder on lefties' date=' and has a plus fastball to use on righties. The homerun he gave up to Izturis should have been caught by Damon, and went all of 345 feet. I think he's gonna be real good.[/quote']

 

We'll see. I don't think Coke by his lonesome is enough to pull you even with the sheer number of weapons our bullpen has but it might make the margin negligible, which would accomplish the same effecti

[jacksonianmarch]

We'll see. I don't think Coke by his lonesome is enough to pull you even with the sheer number of weapons our bullpen has but it might make the margin negligible' date=' which would accomplish the same effecti[/quote']

 

I like Coke a lot. And to think we almost gave him away to Pittsburgh. Granted, we ended up including Ohlendorf who has been nothing but solid this spring and in start #1 for Pitt.

 

But Coke has the opportunity to become a setup man or a closer, which is something I never even dreamed of him becoming when he was toiling through A and AA ball for the past few yrs. But his conversion to the pen has seen such a jump in velocity for both his slider and his heater that his solid change has been able to be that much more effective.

[TheKilo]

Ramon Ramirez is 100x the pitcher Coke is.

[redsoxsuperfan]

Dice-K probably peaked last year. He doesn't throw enough strikes and walks too many people.

 

He'll pitch effectively through 5 innings every time and I don' think I expect much more than that.

[jacksonianmarch]

yeah, no

[diony]

Ramon Ramirez is 100x the pitcher Coke is.

 

Probably. But I'd take Coke because he's a lefty.

[yeszir]

He's also asian. They don't last as long as whites or blacks.

 

You're riding the bullet train to bansville

[diony]

This is pretty close to what I predicted.

 

About league average performance for your #3 starter? Try more optimism.

[Cocos Disciples]

About league average performance for your #3 starter? Try more optimism.

 

I didn't say hoped, I said predicted.

[BSN07]

No more worried then I was before. It's also one start. If it becomes a trend then I am more worried.

 

I've also said I wouldn't be opposed to a Dice-K trade if it brought in a big time player.

 

But in the end he is what he is, and he's better then most teams#3 SP. So I try not to complain too much.

[ORS]

I didn't say hoped' date=' I said predicted.[/quote']

This will only confused diony, who is unable to separate the two.

[diony]

lol