Plan B

[redsoxrules]

Why does anyone care how much money they spend? Spending money is not a linear thing--i.e., beyond a certain point there isn't a correlation between spending money and winning games.

 

This team has 3 everyday starting fielders who are earning either pre-arbitration or arbitration $$ (Lowrie, Ellsbury, Youkilis). They may have a 4th in catcher. They have one starting fielder who is making pre-arbitration signed-contract $$ (Pedroia). They will probably have at least one, if not two starting pitchers who are in that category (Lester, Buchholz). They have at least 4 relievers who are in that category: Masterson, Delcarmen, Ramirez, Papelbon--and maybe more depending on how Littleton and Gonzalez do in ST.

 

When your team is made up of such young talent it is hard to have a payroll as high as the 2004 or 2006 Red Sox did. It doesn't mean they are worse.

 

In total that is possibly 11 men on their 25 man roster who are likely to produce more wins than their cost should dictate and who are currently playing within an optimal contract.

 

The one fact in all of this is that FA's cost more money than pre-arbitration or arbitration players do. There is nothing, NOTHING, in that equation that talks about the quality of the player being signed.

 

I don't see areas for them to spend money without it being wasted. Should they go out and buy an expensive lefty reliever, or an expensive lefty starter and sit Jon Lester so they can spend money and make you feel good? If they could they would drop another 9m by getting rid of Lugo. Would that UPSET you, because their payroll would drop even more?

 

I don't see their payroll as some indication of how much they 'love' their fans, or how much they are willing to win. Every year for a few years now they have been able to add big league ready talent to the MLB club for pennies on the dollar. That should continue, given their drafting in recent years. Bowden, Bard and Anderson all appear ready to come up sometime in the next few seasons, as do players like Bailey. In a few years we will see what we have in Kalish, Reddick, Lin, Westmoreland, Middlebrooks, Pimentel, Kelly, etc.,

 

What is there to complain about? If this team has mutliple seasons under 90 wins I will join the "get expensive players now" bandwagon, but given the success of other teams who were extremely competitive for extended periods like ATL and ANA I see no reason to think it is going to happen anytime soon.

 

ok....so as long as they win 90+ games and dont win the WS you're fine with that ..Gotcha

 

If you have the resources to make your team better you DO IT . it dosent matter if you're the defending champs or won 100+ games . you just do it

 

they have the resources...I'll agree that the off season is far from over BUT if they dont do any big moves , this team will be heavily relying on Lowell and Papi to be healthy wich is NOT the way to go

[Dojji]

THat's not a little disingenoups RSR. You make it sound like he goes into the season rooting for nothing more than 90 wins and that once win 90 happens he tips his cap to the team and walks away whistling..

 

THe judgement call is that if you set your team up to win 90+ wins in any given season your chances of making the postseason are good and that the Sox are already pretty much at that level.

 

 

There's no such thing as a guaranteed playoff appearance and at least one good team in the AL East is going to be staying home next year so really no matter what we do we have a chance of being that team. On the other hand our roster may well still be the best in the AL East and that's pretty much all you can hope for in the offseason.

[example1]

ok....so as long as they win 90+ games and dont win the WS you're fine with that ..Gotcha

 

If you have the resources to make your team better you DO IT . it dosent matter if you're the defending champs or won 100+ games . you just do it

 

they have the resources...I'll agree that the off season is far from over BUT if they dont do any big moves , this team will be heavily relying on Lowell and Papi to be healthy wich is NOT the way to go

 

1) they got to game 7 of the ALCS virtually without Ortiz and Lowell in 2008.

 

2) the 95 games theshold is one set by the team, because teams that win that much tend to get into the playoffs (something like 90% chance).

 

3) I'm not going to be "fine" if they don't win the WS, but I can say I wasn't despondant last year when they didn't win it, and I'm not going to spiral into months of depression if a hotter team beats them in a 7 game series, or if a hot pitcher throws a shutout in the crucial game. That's the way things go.

 

Last year the Angels were the best team in the AL for the first 2/3 of the season. At that point they added Mark Teixeira. They were wiped away in the ALDS, even though they took a great team and added a great player.

 

In 2004 the Red Sox had Pedro Martinez and added Curt Schilling and the "fireman of the year" award winner from 2003 in Keith Foulke. They would have lost that year except for a stolen base. That's why everyone with any knowledge of baseball calls the postseason a 'crapshoot'.

 

Look at the 'best teams' in history, those with the best winning % in history. Only a small portion of them won the WS. Building a team is about getting it to the point where you have the opportunity to play games that mean something. That is late season and playoff games.

[Teddyballgame10]

Why does anyone care how much money they spend? Spending money is not a linear thing--i.e., beyond a certain point there isn't a correlation between spending money and winning games.

 

This team has 3 everyday starting fielders who are earning either pre-arbitration or arbitration $$ (Lowrie, Ellsbury, Youkilis). They may have a 4th in catcher. They have one starting fielder who is making pre-arbitration signed-contract $$ (Pedroia). They will probably have at least one, if not two starting pitchers who are in that category (Lester, Buchholz). They have at least 4 relievers who are in that category: Masterson, Delcarmen, Ramirez, Papelbon--and maybe more depending on how Littleton and Gonzalez do in ST.

 

When your team is made up of such young talent it is hard to have a payroll as high as the 2004 or 2006 Red Sox did. It doesn't mean they are worse.

 

In total that is possibly 11 men on their 25 man roster who are likely to produce more wins than their cost should dictate and who are currently playing within an optimal contract.

 

The one fact in all of this is that FA's cost more money than pre-arbitration or arbitration players do. There is nothing, NOTHING, in that equation that talks about the quality of the player being signed.

 

I don't see areas for them to spend money without it being wasted. Should they go out and buy an expensive lefty reliever, or an expensive lefty starter and sit Jon Lester so they can spend money and make you feel good? If they could they would drop another 9m by getting rid of Lugo. Would that UPSET you, because their payroll would drop even more?

 

I don't see their payroll as some indication of how much they 'love' their fans, or how much they are willing to win. Every year for a few years now they have been able to add big league ready talent to the MLB club for pennies on the dollar. That should continue, given their drafting in recent years. Bowden, Bard and Anderson all appear ready to come up sometime in the next few seasons, as do players like Bailey. In a few years we will see what we have in Kalish, Reddick, Lin, Westmoreland, Middlebrooks, Pimentel, Kelly, etc.,

 

What is there to complain about? If this team has mutliple seasons under 90 wins I will join the "get expensive players now" bandwagon, but given the success of other teams who were extremely competitive for extended periods like ATL and ANA I see no reason to think it is going to happen anytime soon.

 

I think people are upset that we might be under 100mill becuase we had a decent amount of money come off the books this year and did not use it to make the team better. We have basically done nothing with the extra cash we have.

 

If this team were flawless, or close to it, was coming off a WS championship and we were under 100 mill no one would care. The team is flawed and people are annoyed because we did not use the money to fill these flaws.

[redsoxrules]

1) they got to game 7 of the ALCS virtually without Ortiz and Lowell in 2008.

 

2) the 95 games theshold is one set by the team, because teams that win that much tend to get into the playoffs (something like 90% chance).

 

3) I'm not going to be "fine" if they don't win the WS, but I can say I wasn't despondant last year when they didn't win it, and I'm not going to spiral into months of depression if a hotter team beats them in a 7 game series, or if a hot pitcher throws a shutout in the crucial game. That's the way things go.

 

Last year the Angels were the best team in the AL for the first 2/3 of the season. At that point they added Mark Teixeira. They were wiped away in the ALDS, even though they took a great team and added a great player.

 

In 2004 the Red Sox had Pedro Martinez and added Curt Schilling and the "fireman of the year" award winner from 2003 in Keith Foulke. They would have lost that year except for a stolen base. That's why everyone with any knowledge of baseball calls the postseason a 'crapshoot'.

 

Look at the 'best teams' in history, those with the best winning % in history. Only a small portion of them won the WS. Building a team is about getting it to the point where you have the opportunity to play games that mean something. That is late season and playoff games.

 

Yes we were 1 game away from the WS again , without lowell and a healthy Papi

that's what were facing in 2009 right now... is lowell and Papi going to have great season?

We do have a good team but I think as it stands we might fall short again in 2009 . but hey who knows anything can happen , we could even win 100 games

 

as for the Angels they were not the best team IMO. they were playing in a week division .

their Run diff wasent that great compared to the sox . IMO boston had the best team going into the playoffs , its just too bad we didn't have a healthy lowell and Papi because that would of made the diference .

[redsoxrules]

I think people are upset that we might be under 100mill becuase we had a decent amount of money come off the books this year and did not use it to make the team better. We have basically done nothing with the extra cash we have.

If this team were flawless, or close to it, was coming off a WS championship and we were under 100 mill no one would care. The team is flawed and people are annoyed because we did not use the money to fill these flaws.

 

Bingo .

[Dojji]

I think people are upset that we might be under 100mill becuase we had a decent amount of money come off the books this year and did not use it to make the team better. We have basically done nothing with the extra cash we have.

 

If this team were flawless, or close to it, was coming off a WS championship and we were under 100 mill no one would care. The team is flawed and people are annoyed because we did not use the money to fill these flaws.

 

Kinda shortsighted. No matter hwow much money we spend the roster can only have 25 people on it. You have to think about who's leaving as well as who's coming, and whether you've really gained that much

[jacksonianmarch]

here's the thing about that extra cash that I find kinda funny. The sox are all about growth of their farm system and what better way to grow your farm than to sign players in the FA market to fill short term needs instead of trading away talent for those same stopgaps. This offseason was the perfect opportunity to sign players. And the sox come away from this offseason with a new 4th OFer and 2 rehabbing pitchers coming off shoulder injuries.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yes we were 1 game away from the WS again , without lowell and a healthy Papi

that's what were facing in 2009 right now... is lowell and Papi going to have great season?

We do have a good team but I think as it stands we might fall short again in 2009 . but hey who knows anything can happen , we could even win 100 games

 

as for the Angels they were not the best team IMO. they were playing in a week division .

their Run diff wasent that great compared to the sox . IMO boston had the best team going into the playoffs , its just too bad we didn't have a healthy lowell and Papi because that would of made the diference .

 

I dont think example is understanding what is going on here, as usual.

 

The Red Sox 2008 team had a lot of people who achieved last their prior performance. Does that mean they are in for a regression? Who knows. But it certainly doesnt guarantee that those players perform at that same level

 

Pedroia's high .800s OPS and MVP season. Is he gonna repeat that success?

Youk jumping 100+ points in SLG, can he repeat that?

Lester going from marginal #5 starter to post season ace. Can he repeat that?

 

Those were three major driving forces for the sox winning as much as they did. Now, you get to deal with the questions about Bay needing to reproduce what Manny was doing. Well, nobody can do that. Manny's worth goes beyond his numbers. His protection of Ortiz and presence in the lineup forced teams to game plan around him. Now that he's gone and Ortiz looks like a shell of himself, this lineup isnt as intimidating. And when you consider that the catchers slot is due to be a disaster, the CF slot has a kid who regressed something fiece from June on last yr and the SS slot is gonna be a battle between Lowrie and Lugo, and there is a significant chance that the sox have 3 holes in their lineup. Throw in the fact that Lowell regressed from his uncanny 07 back to his career norm prior to getting a serious injury to a major weight bearing joint and Ortiz' bat looked very slow and the offense has some serious concern without much help on the way this yr. Granted, if everything breaks right, the sox O could be solid. But with so many question marks, shoring up that lineup would have been a good idea. Especially with this being a significant buyers market outside of Tex and they didnt do it.

 

Now throw in the fact that we add Tex and Swisher as well as a full yr of Nady to our lineup. We might have Posada back as full time catcher, which fills a massive offensive void and we should see Matsui back at some capacity in the DH role. If we get anything close to their career norms, then we should dominate. The questions are actually the exact opposite from our end. Is there a rebound in store for those who slumped in 08? Cano, Jeter, All CFers, even ARod didnt have his typical yr. I do think that with a more balanced lineup as well as the best 3-4 combo in the game with ARod and Tex, we are gonna be a much more dangerous team. Throw in the additions of CC and AJ as well as likely a full yr from Wang and we'll be really tough. Theo said it, if you arent getting more dynamic, you are falling behind. We did. The sox didnt. The question is, did the sox fall behind 6 games? Time will tell

[Dojji]

here's the thing about that extra cash that I find kinda funny. The sox are all about growth of their farm system and what better way to grow your farm than to sign players in the FA market to fill short term needs instead of trading away talent for those same stopgaps. This offseason was the perfect opportunity to sign players. And the sox come away from this offseason with a new 4th OFer and 2 rehabbing pitchers coming off shoulder injuries.

 

Who else should they have added?

 

There's a hole in the rotation, the Sox added Penny and look like we're going to add Smoltz too, as well as having MLB-ready internal options like Buchholz and Bowden and a couple potentially half-decent Rasner types (Hansack, EMart, Zink) as emergency only options. We've got depth behind that gap out the wazoo and it's already filled with a fine stopgap player in Penny.

 

There's a hole at catcher, fine -- no real big name FA's of any interest, so to internal options like Kottaras and Brown, we added Bard. I'm all for a deal for another catcher if it can be done on the cheap but it's not like we're ignoring the position altogether.

 

Some say we have a hole at SS but with the signing of Furcal there's not much out there that has any chance at all of being better than what we already have, and if Lugo and Lowrie both falter, Argenis Diez will be in AAA and could step up as a defensive whiz SS if needed so unless by some miracle a Jason Donald or Hanley Ramirez drops into our laps SS is already about as deep as we can make it.

 

Seriously, Jacko, before mouthing off about stuff like this even I have an answer for which position to spend the money at. The answer here is that short of a franchise-altering move there really isn't a place to put that money where you'd get a player better than the one you have except possibly SP, and we've already got 9-10 guys who have the ability to be league average starters.

[BoSox21]

here's the thing about that extra cash that I find kinda funny. The sox are all about growth of their farm system and what better way to grow your farm than to sign players in the FA market to fill short term needs instead of trading away talent for those same stopgaps. This offseason was the perfect opportunity to sign players. And the sox come away from this offseason with a new 4th OFer and 2 rehabbing pitchers coming off shoulder injuries.

 

How many of the free agents signed this season actually signed contracts short enough to be "short-term needs"? Jason Giambi? Pat Burrell? I don't see any FA out there that signed a short-term deal that would be a fit for the Sox.

[TheKilo]

Their plan B has backed me off, for now.

 

If one of Smoltz, Saito, Penny, and Baldelli pans out, these deals will be all worth it - low risk, potentially very high upside signings.

 

I'll back off for now.

[BSN07]

Their plan B has backed me off, for now.

 

If one of Smoltz, Saito, Penny, and Baldelli pans out, these deals will be all worth it - low risk, potentially very high upside signings.

 

I'll back off for now.

 

C'mon Kilo, you where crushing me when I brought up the prospects of signing Baldelli and Penny early in the offseason LOL

[Dojji]

Their plan B has backed me off, for now.

 

If one of Smoltz, Saito, Penny, and Baldelli pans out, these deals will be all worth it - low risk, potentially very high upside signings.

 

I'll back off for now.

 

They'll be delighted to hear it.

[TheKilo]

C'mon Kilo' date=' you where crushing me when I brought up the prospects of signing Baldelli and Penny early in the offseason LOL[/quote']

 

I wasn't as crazy about Penny when he was the lone signing, you have to take a look at the total picture of what they've done so far.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Holy shat its Kilo.

[italstallianion]

I doubt that the Sox payroll will be under 100 million for this coming year. In all fairness, with the way the economy is I don't blame teams for hesitating before signing long term deals with the GDP of many African countries.

 

Also, just because the money is not necessarily being spent on FA's, does not mean that it's going nowhere, or into the pockets of the owners. It could be used for potential salary raises of the core players, or it can be used for IFA's, particularly those in the Latin American markets, and even better, the money could be used in signing a high percentage of top draft picks come June.

 

The management has done enough recently to earn my trust, and they've gradually spent money (albeit in smaller portions) and by the looks of it they've made improvements in the team. Keep in mind that they only needed a few tweaks (outside of the catcher spot) in this offseason rather than the facelift that the people in the Bronx are getting.

[jacksonianmarch]

I wasn't as crazy about Penny when he was the lone signing' date=' you have to take a look at the total picture of what they've done so far.[/quote']

 

I am absolutely not sold on Smoltz's ability to come back this yr. He had surgery 7 months ago. It was a major reconstructive surgery said to be career threatening. If you are banking on him to be anything but a wing and a prayer then you're delusional. I honestly think it will come down to Penny being vintage or injured. I think Smoltz wont see significant game action until 2010, if at all.

[Dojji]

I am absolutely not sold on Smoltz's ability to come back this yr. He had surgery 7 months ago. It was a major reconstructive surgery said to be career threatening. If you are banking on him to be anything but a wing and a prayer then you're delusional. I honestly think it will come down to Penny being vintage or injured. I think Smoltz wont see significant game action until 2010' date=' if at all.[/quote']

 

You think so because you hope so. The concept of facing an October rotation of Beckett, Lester, Daisuke, healthy Smoltz would be enough to strike terror into the heart of any Yankee fan.

[diony]

You think so because you hope so. The concept of facing an October rotation of Beckett' date=' Lester, Daisuke, healthy Smoltz would be enough [b']to strike terror into the heart of any Yankee fan.[/b]

 

Not really.

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

WHO NEEDS PITCHING WHEN U HAVE A BETTER BATTING ORDER

[italstallianion]

To be perfectly honest, I feel that even if Smoltz doesn't pitch a single inning, that he still carries some value for the Sox. Sure it wouldn't be the wisest investment, but he knows how to pitch, and I think his veteran presence would do wonders for Buchholz, and it wouldn't hurt Lester, Bowden, Masterson and all the young guys (and Beckett and Dice-K can learn from Smoltz as well). Smoltz can help pitchers survive without their top-stuff, which would help in later years, but can also teach some of the players how to properly use their stuff when they have it.

 

I doubt Smoltz will be like John Farrell or anything, but I think the mere presence and knowledge bank that Smoltz has accumulated over the years is close to worth the 5 million alone, so if he can pitch a Smoltz like season or anything near average then all the better.

 

Smoltz also seems like a guy that would bring fans into seats, not that the Red Sox would have any problem with that. But given this economy that'll be more of a factor and that could help Smoltz pay for himself.

[redsoxrules]

WHO NEEDS PITCHING WHEN U HAVE A BETTER BATTING ORDER

 

Pitching wins you championships, thats why we lost , lester had an off game in game 3, wakefield sucked in game 4 and beckett sucked in game 2 .

if we had a reliable 4th starter we probly win game 4 in that series and end up winning the series

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Pitching wins you championships, thats why we lost , lester had an off game in game 3, wakefield sucked in game 4 and beckett sucked in game 2 .

if we had a reliable 4th starter we probly win game 4 in that series and end up winning the series

I'm aware of this.

[jacksonianmarch]

You think so because you hope so. The concept of facing an October rotation of Beckett' date=' Lester, Daisuke, healthy Smoltz would be enough to strike terror into the heart of any Yankee fan.[/quote']

 

It doesnt, really.

 

Beckett's ERA against the yankees in his Red Sox tenure is 5.33 with a WHIP of 1.48.

DiceK's ERA vs the Yankees in his MLB tenure is 6.35 with a 1.56WHIP

Smoltz is coming off major, reconstructive shoulder surgery, wont be ready until mid May at the earliest and is 41. I am not afraid of him at all.

 

The only pitcher on the sox that scares me is Lester. We have proven time and again that we dont fare well vs lefties, and we fare worse vs power lefties. Lester would dominate us in a short series, that much I am certain. And he's already started. In 3 starts vs NYY in his career, he has a WHIP under 1, a K/9 >9 and an ERA of 1.19.

[diony]

 

The only pitcher on the sox that scares me is Lester. We have proven time and again that we dont fare well vs lefties, and we fare worse vs power lefties. Lester would dominate us in a short series, that much I am certain. And he's already started. In 3 starts vs NYY in his career, he has a WHIP under 1, a K/9 >9 and an ERA of 1.19.

 

Nah, sooner or later they'll figure him out. He's good, but not THAT good. Besides the Yanks added two switch hitters to their lineup.

[example1]

Their plan B has backed me off, for now.

 

If one of Smoltz, Saito, Penny, and Baldelli pans out, these deals will be all worth it - low risk, potentially very high upside signings.

 

I'll back off for now.

 

Most people seem pretty content now that the Sox have resigned Youkilis.

 

My sense is that this will shift if (when) the Yankees sign Manny Ramirez. We can all predict it and talk about it, but as soon as it happens the hats will fly off and people will freak out. (Not you Kilo, necessarily).

 

Now, I realized I missed this douchey post from Jacksonian...

 

 

I dont think example is understanding what is going on here, as usual.

 

The Red Sox 2008 team had a lot of people who achieved last their prior performance. Does that mean they are in for a regression? Who knows. But it certainly doesnt guarantee that those players perform at that same level

 

Pedroia's high .800s OPS and MVP season. Is he gonna repeat that success?

Youk jumping 100+ points in SLG, can he repeat that?

Lester going from marginal #5 starter to post season ace. Can he repeat that?

 

Example1 doesn't get what? The s*** load of speculation you just put on the table? That would be like me saying "Jacko doesn't get it, as usual. A-Rod could die, Jeter could get hit by a bus, Yankee Stadium could collapse under the weight of the raised expectations". What a stupid comment.

 

Sure, I get that next season could be worse than last year. Does that apply to the Yankees or Rays too, or just the Sox? Next point...

 

Those were three major driving forces for the sox winning as much as they did. Now, you get to deal with the questions about Bay needing to reproduce what Manny was doing.

Well, nobody can do that. Manny's worth goes beyond his numbers. His protection of Ortiz and presence in the lineup forced teams to game plan around him. Now that he's gone and Ortiz looks like a shell of himself, this lineup isnt as intimidating.

 

Tell me Jacko, "replace what Manny was doing", what do you mean?

 

How many wins do you think Manny actually contributed while he put up decent numbers and pulled himself out of games?

 

This is the biggest f***ing joke of all. He's a great player, nobody denies that. But let's actually look at what he did, instead of pretending he's some Hollywood Starlet whose box office draw equates to wins on the field.

 

WARP

2002: 8.3

2003: 8.0

2004: 7.0

2005: 6.7

2006: 5.9

2007: 4.7

2008: 4.5-partial season

 

Manny is an extremely consistent and reliable hitter. He's not irreplaceable. The fact that he got to LA and immediately put up 1999 numbers tells me that he was slacking, started juicing (for a contract), or just got hot against weak NL pitching. It certainly tells me he wasn't injured.

 

The point is, you should really quantify things with me Jacksonian. I'm not someone who is convinced by "Manny was so intimidating, and he was good, so take that, now he's gone, ha ha!". He had 4.7 wins above replacement in 2007. Remember when the Sox lost that year? I don't. I remember your ass sitting at home, silently observing the Sox game because you didn't have anything you could say. You had to zip it. Manny wasn't the savior that year, he was just a good player. He is replaceable.

 

And when you consider that the catchers slot is due to be a disaster, the CF slot has a kid who regressed something fiece from June on last yr and the SS slot is gonna be a battle between Lowrie and Lugo, and there is a significant chance that the sox have 3 holes in their lineup.

 

The catcher slot was a disaster last year and this team did very well. Wrong Jacko.

 

The CF slot "regressed something fiece [sic] from June on last year" yet the player who played there offered more wins (again, quantifying this) than everyone on the Yankees not named Rivera, A-Rod or Mussina. So he would have been the 4th most valuable player on your team last year. Why aren't you talking s*** about the inherent weakness of Cano, Jeter, Joba, Wang, Matsui, or Melky? They all had worse seasons, and none-aside from Joba- were rookies. Ellsbury was largely healthy, he played the whole year and won 6.4 games above margain and, by that measure, was the Sox 5th most valuable player last year--tied with Papelbon, who also blows. Wrong Jacko.

 

Throw in the fact that Lowell regressed from his uncanny 07 back to his career norm prior to getting a serious injury to a major weight bearing joint and Ortiz' bat looked very slow and the offense has some serious concern without much help on the way this yr.

 

We've thrown those facts in... so what? What's your point? If last year happens again the Sox will... make the ALCS? I don't get your argument at all. You are trying to remind me of reasons to be pessimistic, but I feel reason for optimism. I'll be patient though, I'm sure you'll talk about the likelihood for the Sox to get better production from Beckett and young guys like Buchholz, Masterson, or Bowden here in a bit...

 

Granted, if everything breaks right, the sox O could be solid. But with so many question marks, shoring up that lineup would have been a good idea. Especially with this being a significant buyers market outside of Tex and they didnt do it.

 

Nobody who is serious about these things agrees with you. Aside from Tex there are a bunch of overpaid hacks who have holes in their game. Replace Youkilis with Dunn for 15m? Replace Bay with??

 

The only choice was signing Teixeira, and your team did it. Aside from that there were no obvious holes.

 

Now throw in the fact that we add Tex and Swisher as well as a full yr of Nady to our lineup.

 

You had to get this piece of hypocracy in here huh? Swisher, he of the 3.5 WARP is assured to be a valuable addition, but Ellsbury sucks, healthy Lowell is basically the same as benched Lowell, and Ortiz's bat is "slow". I see... Your pontification is accurate and your glass is full with regard to the Yankees, but your accuracy only works in the negative direction for your Sox projections.

 

We might have Posada back as full time catcher, which fills a massive offensive void and we should see Matsui back at some capacity in the DH role. If we get anything close to their career norms, then we should dominate. The questions are actually the exact opposite from our end. Is there a rebound in store for those who slumped in 08? Cano, Jeter, All CFers, even ARod didnt have his typical yr. I do think that with a more balanced lineup as well as the best 3-4 combo in the game with ARod and Tex, we are gonna be a much more dangerous team. Throw in the additions of CC and AJ as well as likely a full yr from Wang and we'll be really tough.

 

What does what the Yankees did have anything to do with whether the Sox can win 95 games? They may not make the playoffs, or they may win the division. They play, what, 18 games against the Yankees? So they have 140-odd games against teams without A-Rod and Teixeira?

 

Theo said it, if you arent getting more dynamic, you are falling behind. We did. The sox didnt. The question is, did the sox fall behind 6 games? Time will tell

 

You love that quote. With that quote Theo is like Aristotle. With the decisions he makes about his team he's a drooling toddler who can't possibly hold Cashman's jockstrap. It's a funny thing huh?

 

I bet Theo would consider signing Pedroia and Youkilis to reasonable, long term deals is part of being "younger and more dynamic". I would bet that bringing Masterson in for a full season, reintroducing Buchholz and introducing Bowden to the club equals "younger and more dynamic", as would trading for Ramirez or picking up a guy like Baldelli who is in his mid-20s.

 

 

A few years ago I was very impressed at the time and patience you put into your posts about the Yankees and Sox. You seemed to know both teams. But the past few years you have been all talk about your team and no product. Your team has been disappointing despite many posts like the one above, with Jacko-the-magnificent telling us all how it went. I used to think that you were the voice of reason and Gom was the one who was reactionary and abrupt. Now I'm pretty sure that he's been right and you've been wrong.

 

Anyone can draw the same conclusions that you did. Yes, the Yankees should be better with Teixeira and CC. Yes, Burnett is better than your average 3rd pitcher. So what? Where does that get you? The playoffs?

 

Can you guarantee me a win in the WS? Go ahead, do it.

 

Otherwise, we're all in the same boat so I suggest you zip it and let the events play themselves out on the field.

[kreinbihl34]

Most people seem pretty content now that the Sox have resigned Youkilis.

 

My sense is that this will shift if (when) the Yankees sign Manny Ramirez. We can all predict it and talk about it, but as soon as it happens the hats will fly off and people will freak out. (Not you Kilo, necessarily).

 

Now, I realized I missed this douchey post from Jacksonian...

 

 

 

Example1 doesn't get what? The s*** load of speculation you just put on the table? That would be like me saying "Jacko doesn't get it, as usual. A-Rod could die, Jeter could get hit by a bus, Yankee Stadium could collapse under the weight of the raised expectations". What a stupid comment.

 

Sure, I get that next season could be worse than last year. Does that apply to the Yankees or Rays too, or just the Sox? Next point...

 

 

 

Tell me Jacko, "replace what Manny was doing", what do you mean?

 

How many wins do you think Manny actually contributed while he put up decent numbers and pulled himself out of games?

 

This is the biggest f***ing joke of all. He's a great player, nobody denies that. But let's actually look at what he did, instead of pretending he's some Hollywood Starlet whose box office draw equates to wins on the field.

 

WARP

2002: 8.3

2003: 8.0

2004: 7.0

2005: 6.7

2006: 5.9

2007: 4.7

2008: 4.5-partial season

 

Manny is an extremely consistent and reliable hitter. He's not irreplaceable. The fact that he got to LA and immediately put up 1999 numbers tells me that he was slacking, started juicing (for a contract), or just got hot against weak NL pitching. It certainly tells me he wasn't injured.

 

The point is, you should really quantify things with me Jacksonian. I'm not someone who is convinced by "Manny was so intimidating, and he was good, so take that, now he's gone, ha ha!". He had 4.7 wins above replacement in 2007. Remember when the Sox lost that year? I don't. I remember your ass sitting at home, silently observing the Sox game because you didn't have anything you could say. You had to zip it. Manny wasn't the savior that year, he was just a good player. He is replaceable.

 

 

 

The catcher slot was a disaster last year and this team did very well. Wrong Jacko.

 

The CF slot "regressed something fiece [sic] from June on last year" yet the player who played there offered more wins (again, quantifying this) than everyone on the Yankees not named Rivera, A-Rod or Mussina. So he would have been the 4th most valuable player on your team last year. Why aren't you talking s*** about the inherent weakness of Cano, Jeter, Joba, Wang, Matsui, or Melky? They all had worse seasons, and none-aside from Joba- were rookies. Ellsbury was largely healthy, he played the whole year and won 6.4 games above margain and, by that measure, was the Sox 5th most valuable player last year--tied with Papelbon, who also blows. Wrong Jacko.

 

 

 

We've thrown those facts in... so what? What's your point? If last year happens again the Sox will... make the ALCS? I don't get your argument at all. You are trying to remind me of reasons to be pessimistic, but I feel reason for optimism. I'll be patient though, I'm sure you'll talk about the likelihood for the Sox to get better production from Beckett and young guys like Buchholz, Masterson, or Bowden here in a bit...

 

 

 

Nobody who is serious about these things agrees with you. Aside from Tex there are a bunch of overpaid hacks who have holes in their game. Replace Youkilis with Dunn for 15m? Replace Bay with??

 

The only choice was signing Teixeira, and your team did it. Aside from that there were no obvious holes.

 

 

 

You had to get this piece of hypocracy in here huh? Swisher, he of the 3.5 WARP is assured to be a valuable addition, but Ellsbury sucks, healthy Lowell is basically the same as benched Lowell, and Ortiz's bat is "slow". I see... Your pontification is accurate and your glass is full with regard to the Yankees, but your accuracy only works in the negative direction for your Sox projections.

 

 

 

What does what the Yankees did have anything to do with whether the Sox can win 95 games? They may not make the playoffs, or they may win the division. They play, what, 18 games against the Yankees? So they have 140-odd games against teams without A-Rod and Teixeira?

 

 

 

You love that quote. With that quote Theo is like Aristotle. With the decisions he makes about his team he's a drooling toddler who can't possibly hold Cashman's jockstrap. It's a funny thing huh?

 

I bet Theo would consider signing Pedroia and Youkilis to reasonable, long term deals is part of being "younger and more dynamic". I would bet that bringing Masterson in for a full season, reintroducing Buchholz and introducing Bowden to the club equals "younger and more dynamic", as would trading for Ramirez or picking up a guy like Baldelli who is in his mid-20s.

 

 

A few years ago I was very impressed at the time and patience you put into your posts about the Yankees and Sox. You seemed to know both teams. But the past few years you have been all talk about your team and no product. Your team has been disappointing despite many posts like the one above, with Jacko-the-magnificent telling us all how it went. I used to think that you were the voice of reason and Gom was the one who was reactionary and abrupt. Now I'm pretty sure that he's been right and you've been wrong.

 

Anyone can draw the same conclusions that you did. Yes, the Yankees should be better with Teixeira and CC. Yes, Burnett is better than your average 3rd pitcher. So what? Where does that get you? The playoffs?

 

Can you guarantee me a win in the WS? Go ahead, do it.

 

Otherwise, we're all in the same boat so I suggest you zip it and let the events play themselves out on the field.

 

 

Short and sweet. Just the way I like it.

 

Seriously though... that was really long.

[example1]

Short and sweet. Just the way I like it.

 

Seriously though... that was really long.

 

It was pretty long. Apologies.

[26 to 6]

It was pretty long. Apologies.

I think you got a little too defensive there. All good though, made me laugh

 

But seriously, let's look at a few things. In pointing out what Manny did and didn't do you forgot to mention the protection he provided in the lineup. His presence alone in a lineup is a contribution. The game-plan vs the Red Sox changed completely after manny was dealt. I understand it was time for him to go, and he needed to go. Fair enough. But don't discount the effect his presence had. Jason Bay is no Manny Ramirez. I'm not saying he's irreplacable, but he's not one who is easily replaced.

 

When he pointed out Ellsbury's downward spiral from June on you accuse him of talking s***. I didn't see it that way at all. He was pointing something out a legitimate fact. That doesn't mean our lineup, especially our CFers, didn't have their struggles, because they obviously did. Are you saying that one is not allowed to point out an opposing player's struggles unless none of the players on that person's team experienced struggles? That's ridiculous, but if that's how you feel then you should keep your mouth shut when it comes to criticizing any Yankees. I'm not trying to be confrontational or anything, but that's sort of what I gathered from that part of your post.

 

ok....it's late. Bed time