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Posted

THere seems to be some disagreement as to what we have in Kottaras and whether he'll amount to a major league catcher. There's legitimate arguments to be made on both sides of this debate and I'm interested to see where the board comes down.

 

We've basically got a catcher who hit 20 HR's and OPS of over .800 in AAA, but with a very low AVG (.243). Countering that is the fact that Kottaras works at bats and takes a lot of pitches, and knows how to draw a walk. (.348 OBP, .105 Isolated Discipline).

 

Defensively we've got a guy who calls games pretty well and who's beginning to draw positive review for his defense, but the arm's a bit on the shaky side. Once again a combination of strengths and weaknesses with not a ton of middle ground. He can handle the knuckleball, but with already a below average arm...

 

My thought on the subject is informed by a very similar story of a catcher. Once upon a time in the Boston system was a catcher named Scott Hatteberg

 

Until the beginning of 2008, Hatteberg and Kottaras were pretty much walking the same path. Their paths diverged in this their age 26 year when instead of improving his average 30 points to put himself in the conversation as a catcher of note in the minors, Kottaras did so with 20 HR's in roughly 400 at bats.

 

Hatteberg came up for good in September of his age 26 year and did't hit much of anything, then took over starting catching duties in his age 27 season and was an unspectacularly solid offensive backstop who got by defensively. I distinctly recall that Hatteberg caught Wakefield regularly and his arm was roughly the same as Tek's until an arm/shoulder injury took away some of his throwing ability and he was eventually moved to first base.

 

The question is, with Kottaras' contact being such a legitimate issue, can he really take that next step like Hatteberg did and play this kind of Jack Cust style offensive game in the big leagues? Usually, the guys who do that made good contact in the minors.

 

It's hard to see this guy not having a large amount of growing pains adjusting to the league, especially since unlike Hatteberg every time he's gone up a level, his AVG has gone down and not recovered which says depressing things about Kottaras' ceiling.

Posted
He isnt Jack Cust. Cust is a guy who has massive HR potential and walks WAY more than Kottaras. Kottaras is a guy, who, IMO will show the power in the bigs, but will likely be a Phil Plantier type player. Mid 20s HRs, BA in the .210-.230 range and his defensive flaws will be magnified. He is not a very good catcher. He isnt quick behind the dish and doesnt have a very good arm. The question has always been, can the offense make up for what the defense lacks. And I dont think that will be the case. Hence, I expect him to be a Mirabelli type. Backup catcher who will hit the occasional tater
Posted
He isnt Jack Cust. Cust is a guy who has massive HR potential and walks WAY more than Kottaras.

 

Just to play devil's advocate, Kottaras had 22 HR's in ~ 400 at bats, not that far shy of Cust's mark, and Kottaras walks a ton himself.

 

Kottaras is a guy, who, IMO will show the power in the bigs, but will likely be a Phil Plantier type player. Mid 20s HRs, BA in the .210-.230 range

 

That would put him in the top half of catchers offensively. And that looked like Kelly Shoppach's ceiling at one point so I'll consider that good news

 

and his defensive flaws will be magnified. He is not a very good catcher. He isnt quick behind the dish and doesnt have a very good arm.

 

By all accounts, he's improved enormously and was nearly as good as his defense-first counterpart this year in Pawtucket.

 

The question has always been, can the offense make up for what the defense lacks. And I dont think that will be the case. Hence, I expect him to be a Mirabelli type. Backup catcher who will hit the occasional tater

 

I think you're selling him way short, but if you mean Mirabelli in his prime years, I'll sign up for that..

Posted
Just to play devil's advocate, Kottaras had 22 HR's in ~ 400 at bats, not that far shy of Cust's mark, and Kottaras walks a ton himself.

 

 

 

That would put him in the top half of catchers offensively. And that looked like Kelly Shoppach's ceiling at one point so I'll consider that good news

 

 

 

By all accounts, he's improved enormously and was nearly as good as his defense-first counterpart this year in Pawtucket.

 

 

 

I think you're selling him way short, but if you mean Mirabelli in his prime years, I'll sign up for that..

 

 

 

If your expecting Jacko to not sell low on any Sox prospects, then you haven't been around long.

 

I'm on the fence with Kott. He will have to prove himself in the bigs. Theo hasn't said much about him, and in the same time has looked at other C's. This doesn't make me think he is a sure thing to come in and be the C for the Sox.

Posted

I think that's about where I stand too. Fortunately it looks like the kid has some pop, that can atone for a lot of sins.

 

If he shows up in the bigs next year it's because Theo thinks he was the best available option, even if only because you have to throw in the cost of dollars, talent and opportunity from some of the other alternatives.

Posted

Hey, just noticed this: check it out!

 

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/N/Mike-Napoli.shtml

 

Napoli has far more power than Kottaras, but they've got a similar BB and K dynamic in the high minors. They're both basically true outcomes hitters at this point.

 

Not sure this is a true comp but I thought it was interesting because it looks like Napoli's a similar type player statistically and he's worked out fine for Anaheim. Should give some hope for Kottaras.

Posted
Just to play devil's advocate, Kottaras had 22 HR's in ~ 400 at bats, not that far shy of Cust's mark, and Kottaras walks a ton himself.

 

 

That would put him in the top half of catchers offensively. And that looked like Kelly Shoppach's ceiling at one point so I'll consider that good news

 

 

 

By all accounts, he's improved enormously and was nearly as good as his defense-first counterpart this year in Pawtucket.

 

 

 

I think you're selling him way short, but if you mean Mirabelli in his prime years, I'll sign up for that..

 

 

I was thinking Mirabelli in his yrs in Boston when he was actually a good backup.

  • 2 months later...
  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
He might be the catcher of right now but the future...not sure about that one

 

Honestly? Kottaras should have every chance to earn more responsibility for himself. As a LHH catcher who can handle a knuckler he's got a couple points in his favor to make the roster as a backup even if they sign 'Tek. Most of our other options are about 2-3 years away and none of them are guarantees to make it as far as Kottaras did (no, not even Exposito and his low OBP). He also fits the Sox' philosophy as a walk-taker who's been flashing some power around.

 

Interesting quote by Theo at Soxprosects on their Kottaras thread which is mostly the reason I top this -- when Kot was called up instead of Brown last year it caught some people by surprise, but he did it because he felt that Kottaras was the better reciever, which is interesting and worth bearing in mind.

Posted

I really doubt that. Any catcher who can put up good AAA numbers will get a good long chance by SOMEONE even if it isn't us. Catchers who can hit are very hard to come by after all.

 

I think the worst case for Kottaras is a career as a journeyman backup with a few great years and mostly not. Of course, if he reaches his ceiling and hits 15-20 HR's a year in the bigs with a ~.240ish AVG, his position can sustain that and get him a nice contract.

Posted

I think people greatly overrate his minor league numbers.

 

If you translate his luck adjusted minor league stats from last year into major league numbers you get .224/.311/.400. Kotteras isn't a young catcher with potential, nor is he above average defensively. By all accounts he's below average defensively though he's improving. These aren't acceptable hitting numbers for a 25 year old catcher who is below average defensively.

Posted

Im sick of hearing about this guy. Cut him....see ya later dude. What the hell do people see in a 25 year old catcher, who cant hit a lick in AAA, and does not have a good enough defensive reputation to even consider wasting a spot in the big leagues? He is a nobody....he is nothing, and I really dont see any argument. The guy sucks, end of argument.

 

Bard has already shown that he can hit MAJOR LEAGUE pitching (minus last year). Hes also shown he has a little pop (averaging 11HR, 30 2B, and 63 RBI projected over a 162 schedule). Look at those numbers......then look at Kottaras. But wait a second....oh yeah, I forgot.....he puts up horrendous numbers in AAA. Hes proven nothing, hes awful.

 

Throw in the fact that Bard is considered a pretty good defensive backstop (besides catching Wakefield) I dont see this as a fair argument. Bard is 30 and an ok catcher, could MAYBE start for a few teams.....Kotarras sucks ass and is 25 and a waste of time even at the AAA level.

 

If Wakefield is the deciding factor........see ya later Wake, tired of you at 42 years old keeping us hostage at the price of your knuckleball.

Posted

A young healthy Tek did not catch Wake. Will they really ask an aging Tek to do that?

 

Bard was toast the minute Tek reupped

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