Rob_Zombie

This post is an example as to why a700 hitters posts should be disregarded. Its perfectly fine for your conclusions to be wrong. No one is perfect. The problem is that you argue in simplistic absolutes, or don't put together an argument at all. This post is a perfect example. Your argument that "you should never trade a back of the rotation starter for a project" is akin to saying that you shouldn't wear white on Wednesdays. It demonstrates that you have very little idea as to what you are talking about. Besides, its not correct. Though Willy Mo wasn't a polished player he had previously played well for the Reds slugging .500 one year. When you do use evidence, its evidence that has no basis, or is dead wrong, such as arguing that there is no difference between the A.L. East and the N.L. Central because you don't have to face the Red Sox or Yankees if you are pitching for one of those clubs. Lost of your posts are along the lines of "Player X sucks". Even if player X really does suck that's not a real argument. Finally given your total lack of analytical skills, your conclusions tend to be wrong a lot. To use your analogy, if a basketball evaluator dismissed Larry Bird as a future failure in 1979 without seeing him play at IU then yes their future opinions should be questioned and possibly even disregarded. By the way, I know of no such evaluator who did so.

More embarrassing from a700 hitter. #1 Though I distinctively remember you saying that Youkilis was "s***" that's not the point of the comment. The point is that you make arguments with irrelevant stats, little to no explanation, or any hint that you have the slightest clue as to what you are talking about. This is the case even when I agree with your general conclusion. #2 Apparently you don't think the FO is doing a "great job". However the team has made the playoffs every year since Theo took over save one. They have won two world Series and two division series during this time. I guess if you think that results are irrelevant, then they aren't doing a good job. #3 Wins aren't an indicator of anything its a completely worthless stat that tells you zero about a pitchers performance or how he will perform in the future. Its not just that they "aren't the best indicator", they aren't an indicator at all. I would question any argument that uses wins. #4 Every team has signings and trades that don't turn out well for one reason or another. In fact, you win trades and singings roughly 60% of the time, you are probably doing very well. You simply can't look at the trades that that didn't turn out and declare that the FO isn't doing their job. Which leads me too........ #5 Is it fair to judge a trade or signing simply on the results? I can give you an extreme example. Lets say that you make a trade for a player who is involved in an accident and can't play anymore. Is it fair to say that the team's front office should have forseen the accident? Of course not. What's fair is to ask if the trade should have been made based upon available information at the time. GMs don't have crystal balls, but they can accurately assess their risk and possible return. Its fair to ask if the front office did so in this trade. At the time for the Arroyo trade, Arroyo was coming off a season where he had a league average ERA. Quite frankly, he was lucky to do that as he had an unsustainable .246 BABIP. His K's and GB% were way down from the year before. Boston had no one in the system at the time with power potential and faced the looming free agency of Trot Nixon and down the line Manny Ramirez. Willy Mo Pena was a roll of the dice but the upside was enormous. Clearly you were trading a pitcher who was likely to be below average for a player with the upside as a star. Heads you win big, tails you loose very little. Personally, if I had the same available information as I did then, I'd roll the dice all over again for a pitcher who looked like he was going to be a high 4's low 5's ERA pitcher at best. Since then Arroyo has averaged an FIP of roughly 4.50 in the NL East where the level of competition is much weaker and there is no DH. Its likely that he would have had an ERA around 5.00 had he stayed in Boston. I also disagree that Arroyo's departure hurt the Sox in anyway. Arroyo wasn't good enough to help them make the playoffs in 06, they won in 07, and they only scored 1 run in game 7 of 2008. Doubtful that he could have helped them more than Paul Byrd did.

That's because....he didn't. Pauley's MLEs show a guy who will have a K/BB ratio of 1.56 albeit with a lot of ground balls. You can last a couple of years in the majors with talent like Pauley's and if he gets lucky he'll have one outstanding year that will make him some money. But you won't last as a starter in the majors very long with a 1.56 K/BB no matter how many grounders you throw. Pauley's basically a cheap place-holder for a year or two till some of the O's better pitching prospects are ready. Reminds me of John Doherty or Ryan Dreese.

I think people greatly overrate his minor league numbers. If you translate his luck adjusted minor league stats from last year into major league numbers you get .224/.311/.400. Kotteras isn't a young catcher with potential, nor is he above average defensively. By all accounts he's below average defensively though he's improving. These aren't acceptable hitting numbers for a 25 year old catcher who is below average defensively.