10/5 vs. Angels: ALDS Game 3

[soxfan17881]

Based on Gameday, that was ball 4

[TheKilo]

Sure' date=' if that .325 hitter is 0 for his last 10. THere's pros and cons to it.[/quote']

 

Let me ask you an OT question.

 

If I flip a coin ten times, and it comes up heads ten times, what's the likelihood of tails on the 11th flip?

[Dojji]

Let me ask you an OT question.

 

If I flip a coin ten times, and it comes up heads ten times, what's the likelihood of tails on the 11th flip?

 

I hear what you're saying, but a hitter isn't a coin and hits are rarely distributed purely randomly.

 

That said, I'm not all that big a proponent of small-ball myself. My only point is that the concept of using it isn't inherently ridiculous.

[CrespoBlows]

I hear what you're saying' date=' but a hitter isn't a coin.[/quote']

 

He's a .325 hitter. I'd let him swing through his slump. A bunt might hurt his confidence.

 

Besides, why are we trying to give outs away, when Ortiz, Youkilis, and Bay are coming up?

[MANNYHOF24]

I forgot how good Delcarmen was down the stretch.

[Dojji]

He's a .325 hitter. I'd let him swing through his slump. A bunt might hurt his confidence.

 

Pedroia is a pretty good bunter IIRC, so I doubt it. He's bunted for hits before.

[MANNYHOF24]

Nasty changeups.

[ORS]

He's slumping right now' date=' sometimes you do bunt to beat a slump Besides, Peddy's a decent bunter and he might even reach.[/quote']

Slumping in what way, that he doesn't have a hit in the series? He's ripped the ball a few times. Let him swing.

[BoSox21]

what a player

[Dojji]

Besides, why are we trying to give outs away, when Ortiz, Youkilis, and Bay are coming up?

 

Because we're dealing with a groundballing lefty who had been pitching us very effectively and it looked like baserunners were going to be hard to come by.

[CrespoBlows]

Pedroia is a pretty good bunter IIRC' date=' so I doubt it. He's bunted for hits before.[/quote']

 

He has 13 bunts in his career.

 

I don't like sending that message to Pedroia.

 

"OK, you're struggling, so we're going to take the bat out of your hands."

[soxfan17881]

Are we really talking about having Bay bunt? The guy with two jacks in the first two games?

 

Also, nice slide by Youk!

[TheKilo]

Gameday has 5 straight changeups to Anderson. Has that ever happened?

[CrespoBlows]

Because we're dealing with a groundballing lefty who had been pitching us very effectively and it looked like baserunners were going to be hard to come by.

 

OK, this is where you lose me.

 

He allowed NINE baserunners in 4.2 innings. He sucked.

[Dojji]

Slumping in what way' date=' that he doesn't have a hit in the series? He's ripped the ball a few times. Let him swing.[/quote']

 

I actually agree, myself, all I'm doing is playing devil's advocate and making the obvious argument for conservative baseball. Trying to guarantee at least one run when a run ties the game is not a bad move.

[TheKilo]

Because we're dealing with a groundballing lefty who had been pitching us very effectively and it looked like baserunners were going to be hard to come by.

 

Since when is 3 runs in 4+ effective?

[Dojji]

Since when is 3 runs in 4+ effective?

 

Heh, you got me there, although frankly those runs should be credited to Hunter or Kendrick rather than Saunders.

[BoSox21]

Dustin Pedroia is not Howie Kendrick or Kosuke Fukudome. He's not a player you bump to 8th in the order or bench completely cause he goes 0 for 2 games, he's a guy you treat as if he's up there swinging with a boat oar because he is that good of a hitter.

[TheKilo]

Not really - Saunders blows

[Dojji]

Nice work by Manny D and his defense.

[CrespoBlows]

by James Click

Printer-

friendly

 

 

One of the most striking discoveries of much of the statistical research done in baseball over the last 20 years is that outs are more valuable than bases. This breakthrough means that stolen bases are only good when the stolen base percentage is above a certain break-even point. Furthermore, it means that "sacrifices" are an extremely bad idea if you're trying to score runs, which we'd like to assume everyone is trying to do--even that team in Los Angeles.

 

This line of thinking derives almost entirely from the grid of expected runs in an inning based on the outs and runner situation, originally developed by John Thorn and Pete Palmer in The Hidden Game of Baseball:

 

 

Runners

Outs None 1st 2nd 3rd 1st&2nd 1st&3rd 2nd&3rd Loaded

0 0.454 0.783 1.068 1.277 1.380 1.639 1.946 2.254

1 0.249 0.478 0.699 0.897 0.888 1.088 1.371 1.546

2 0.095 0.209 0.348 0.382 0.457 0.494 0.661 0.798

 

Looking at the table, the most obvious feature is that expected runs decrease much more quickly going down (as outs increase) than they increase going across (as runners move around the bases).

 

 

Waste Not, Want Not: We'll use an example from the Astros game against St. Louis on June 4, but any Houston fan could name a half-dozen others. Craig Biggio led off the game with a double to left field, bringing up shortstop Adam Everett.

Nice start, right? On the way to a big inning, right? Wrong, if you're Jimy Williams, who's never met a pointless sacrifice bunt that didn't seem like a good strategic decision, especially with Everett at the plate. So far in 2004, Everett has 19 sacrifice bunts in 61 games, by far the most in the majors.

 

So, as ever, Williams asked Everett to lay down a bunt. He couldn't get the bunt down, and the Astros eventually stranded Biggio at second base.

 

In James Click's series on the sacrifice bunt, we learned that the threshold for a bunt in a runner on second, no out situation is .249/.305/.363--that is, if the batter's numbers are below that threshold, a bunt makes sense. Otherwise, the batter should hit away.

[TheKilo]

MDC is a monster.

[NomahsHammSammich]

MDC....f***ing exceptional. Now let's get some runs!

[soxfan17881]

Here's OT for you...I'm looking at the think in Vlady's right arm and it got me thinking about something...

 

Did any of you guys (if any are old enough) have that Six Million Dollar Man action figure with the rubber skin on the arm that you would roll up to expose the bionics?

[Dojji]

Lowrie completely overmatched by that fastball.

 

Can we get Casey in here and pull Lowell now? The lefty is gone and I'd rather have some D.

[BoSox21]

damnit Lowrie, swinging at ball 4

[BoSox21]

damnit Lowrie' date=' swinging at ball 4[/quote']

 

judging by that call to Tek, might not have been

[soxfan17881]

As I was typing that last post, my wife said to me, "Boston made the playoff last year, right?":blink:

[Dojji]

This Aarredondo kid is effective.

[TheKilo]

Arredondo is sick.

 

If the Angels had a brain in their head they'd resign Tex for the money Krod will command.