Who starts game 1?

[jacksonianmarch]

If the playoffs started in a week and all pitchers were rested, who would start? I know the majority of you would choose Beckett, but Lester has been much better.

 

IP?

Beckett missed 2 starts to begin the yr, but he still trails Lester by 11IP (149 to 160)

 

WHIP?

Even with Beckett's abysmal start, he leads in WHIP by 0.05

 

ERA?

This one isnt even close. Lester's ERA is over a full run better than Josh's. 3.17 to 4.34

 

HR allowed?

Lester had allowed 6 less HRs, 11 to 17

 

BB and K?

Beckett has a lower BB/9 a higher K/9 (by a lot) and a higher K/BB than Lester

 

Then there's the whole Beckett lore with two WS titles. I'd still have to go with Beckett, but Lester is really putting himself in the conversation. At worst, he's the two.

[Dojji]

It's Becks. I'm sure Lester would understand. Beckett's postseason track record makes it a very easy decision.

 

Lester starts game 2, Daisuke starts Game 3.

[TheKilo]

Yeah, it's pretty clearly Beckett.

[schillingouttheks]

Beckett.

[BoSox21]

how is this a debate? Beckett is the best post-season pitcher currently in the game

 

Post-season career stats: 6-2 with 3 complete games in 9 starts and a 1.72 ERA.

 

He has never lost a post-season series and has anchored his two World Series-winning teams. that's a lot more than just lore no matter how he's pitched this year

[a700hitter]

If it started tomorrow, it would be Beckett. However, if he keeps pitching like he did on Sunday or the 2006 version of Beckett, I think they should opt to go with lester.

[ORS]

Is it this easy to answer? I'm not sure. I mean, Beckett did get the nod in Game 1 of each series last year due to his better season despite Schilling having the stronger postseason resume (although Beckett's was good too, however so is Lester's).

 

Beckett's ERA was only 0.60 better than Curt's, and it wasn't as low as Lester's is now.

[BoSox21]

Is it this easy to answer? I'm not sure. I mean, Beckett did get the nod in Game 1 of each series last year due to his better season despite Schilling having the stronger postseason resume (although Beckett's was good too, however so is Lester's).

 

Beckett's ERA was only 0.60 better than Curt's, and it wasn't as low as Lester's is now.

 

that is true, but last year there was warranted skepticism about the condition of Schilling's arm causing a legitimate belief that they might not see the post-season Schilling of old. Coupled with his already stellar post-season resume, Beckett was the easy choice there.

 

This year, Lester has clearly been better than Beckett but it's not as if Beckett hasn't shown signs of dominance at all this year, he's just been inconsistent. Lester is still largely unproven, despite his performance in game 4 of last year's WS

[TheKilo]

Sunday's stinker aside, Beckett's peripheral numbers are still pretty good:

 

K/9

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/510_P_season_full_1_20080818.png

 

BB/9

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/510_P_season_full_2_20080818.png

 

K/BB

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/510_P_season_full_3_20080818.png

 

WHIP

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/510_P_season_full_6_20080818.png

 

SO what's happened between last year and this year?

 

BABIP - He's been unluckier on balls in play

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/510_P_season_full_7_20080818.png

 

LOB% - Has undergone a correction from his brilliant last season

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/510_P_season_full_8_20080818.png

 

And probably the biggest reason - HR/9 has also undergone a correction

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/510_P_season_full_4_20080818.png

 

His FIP is 3.38 - this tells me he's been a bit unlucky this season. I don't find anything too alarming, he just needs to make some minor adjustments. Last season, he could get away with not throwing his off speed stuff for strikes because everyone was sitting fastball.

 

This season batters have adjusted - and Beckett hasn't quite adjusted back.

 

(For reference, in terms of FIP-ERA - Beckett is the 4th unluckiest pitcher in the majors behind Carlos Silva, Nate Robertson, and Luke Hochevar - but he's the only one with an ERA under 5)

[riverside sluggers]

Its the playoffs, its definitely Beckett for game 1. 2003/2007 playoffs is what should be looked at, not the current season's reflection

[MANNYHOF24]

Its the playoffs' date=' its definitely Beckett for game 1. 2003/2007 playoffs is what should be looked at, not the current season's reflection[/quote']

 

Thats really not logical. Beckett in both 2003/2007 had really great numbers in the regular season as well. Beckett has not been the same Beckett as he was in 07 this year. Lester has been the ace so far this season. He picks us up after tough losses and always goes deep into the game. If Beckett turns it around and pitches like last years Beckett, then sure have him start game 1. As of right now, I would go with the better pitcher, which is Jon Lester.

[ORS]

Its the playoffs' date=' its definitely Beckett for game 1. 2003/2007 playoffs is what should be looked at, not the current season's reflection[/quote']

Why is this the case? Statistically, '03 and '07 were his best years. One would expect him to be good in the postseason those years. What if he had made it to the postseason in '06? Why should we expect him to be better than Lester for 4-5 games in October when Lester was better for the 5 months preceding?

[TheKilo]

Its the playoffs' date=' its definitely Beckett for game 1. 2003/2007 playoffs is what should be looked at, not the current season's reflection[/quote']

 

Sigh.

[ORS]

Sunday's stinker aside, Beckett's peripheral numbers are still pretty good:

 

.....

 

SO what's happened between last year and this year?

 

.....

 

BABIP - He's been unluckier on balls in play

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/510_P_season_full_7_20080818.png

 

.....

 

His FIP is 3.38 - this tells me he's been a bit unlucky this season. I don't find anything too alarming, he just needs to make some minor adjustments. Last season, he could get away with not throwing his off speed stuff for strikes because everyone was sitting fastball.

 

This season batters have adjusted - and Beckett hasn't quite adjusted back.

 

(For reference, in terms of FIP-ERA - Beckett is the 4th unluckiest pitcher in the majors behind Carlos Silva, Nate Robertson, and Luke Hochevar - but he's the only one with an ERA under 5)

This is the whole story for me. For the first time in his career, he's allowed more hits than IP. Some might point to BABIP and say "unlucky", and in most cases they would be right, but I feel Beckett's BABIP is pretty much earned. I may have missed one or two of his starts this year, but he seems to have reverted to the FB-happy '06 Beckett. Fewer 2-seam FBs, fewer change-ups, fewer curves, etc. This is confirmed at fangraphs (bottom of the page). Then, on top of the shift in approach, he, to my eye, is making more mistakes in the zone. Hitters are locked in sitting FB, and he's tossing up the occassional cookie. They don't all get hit out, but they are getting hit hard (+9.3% line-drives).

[TheKilo]

This is the whole story for me. For the first time in his career' date=' he's allowed more hits than IP. Some might point to BABIP and say "unlucky", and in most cases they would be right, but I feel Beckett's BABIP is pretty much earned. I may have missed one or two of his starts this year, but [b']he seems to have reverted to the FB-happy '06 Beckett. Fewer 2-seam FBs, fewer change-ups, fewer curves, etc[/b]. This is confirmed at fangraphs (bottom of the page). Then, on top of the shift in approach, he, to my eye, is making more mistakes in the zone. Hitters are locked in sitting FB, and he's tossing up the occassional cookie. They don't all get hit out, but they are getting hit hard (+9.3% line-drives).

 

I don't think (a) is the cuase of (. To my recollection, hitters have been hitting all of his mistakes in the zone as opposed to last year when he could get away with making a mistake on his curve, because hitters were locked in.

 

In other words, it appears Beckett's 07 has made hitters honest on his breaking stuff and when he can't get that over, he gets in trouble.

 

I think expectations were very high for Beckett this season especially since coming off of such a great postseason, but this is simply a regression and a little bit of bad luck. Nothing more, IMO.

[BoSox21]

I do think it's a bit of bad luck as well, maybe the fact that he threw almost 231 innings last year had something to do with it too

[Jacoby_Ellsbury]

Definitely Beckett.

[Dojji]

If it started tomorrow' date=' it would be Beckett. However, if he keeps pitching like he did on Sunday or the 2006 version of Beckett, I think they should opt to go with lester.[/quote']

 

 

Beckett isn't the same pitcher in the regular season as he is in the postseason -- never has been. Even if all you do is just "watch the game," Beckett's fastball goes from 92-94 to 95-98, his curve gets sharper, and his mound presence gets a whole lot more intimidating -- he's clearly playing at a higher level -- I would guess he holds back in the season and conserves himself for the important games. A great attitude for a perennial contender ace.

 

If Beckett's hurt, then you have a problem. If he's able to pitch off a mound, he will start game 1.

[ORS]

Beckett seems to pitch at 95-98 on Saturday afternoon games, too. My guess is that's Fox, not Josh.

[Cocos Disciples]

Yup, I'm giving it to Beckett.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Matsuzaka.

[BoSox21]

Matsuzaka.

 

that's gotta be your shortest post ever by far

[Jayhawk Bill]

that's gotta be your shortest post ever by far

 

Meh. It answered the question at hand. :dunno:

 

Seriously, Daisuke Matsuzaka is 15-2, he's got the best ERA, he's not a kid, and he's thrived in the spotlight in Japan several times. Beckett is an MLB-average pitcher in 2008 (in fact, his only year he received a single Cy Young Award vote was 2007) and Lester is still young. I'll take Matsuzaka.

 

YMMV.

[jacksonianmarch]

Do you think DiceK is getting by on luck? He hasnt allowed a hit with the bases loaded in 14 tries. He also only goes 5-6 innings per start giving a good team a shot at the underbelly of the sox pen. And, whose to say he'll actually get out of the jams when a playoff team is at the dish. I think you gotta go Beckett-Lester in that order with DiceK third.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Do you think DiceK is getting by on luck?

 

In part--but Lester has been lucky over his entire career, and Beckett isn't nearly as good.

 

He hasnt allowed a hit with the bases loaded in 14 tries.

 

Nobody avoids the core of the strike zone like Matsuzaka. He's not afraid to walk home a crucial run, but he will not give a batter something to hit.

 

He also only goes 5-6 innings per start giving a good team a shot at the underbelly of the sox pen.

 

A shot at the Red Sox pen, yes...but underbelly?

 

Tonight's debacle aside, and Tito's irrational use of his relief pitchers through the first half also aside, Boston was still, remarkably, the tenth-best MLB bullpen rated by WXRL this morning. Perhaps the bullpen is less of a strength for Boston than some other areas, but it's tough to call it an "underbelly."

 

And, whose to say he'll actually get out of the jams when a playoff team is at the dish. I think you gotta go Beckett-Lester in that order with DiceK third.

 

OK, but Matsuzaka has the reputation of being, perhaps, the best clutch pitcher in the history of Japanese baseball, and Boston was 3-1 in his four postseason starts last year despite Tito's having almost blown out his throwing arm in the first half through pitcher abuse. This season Matsuzaka is, thus far, still healthy. I'll take Dice-K.

[BoSox21]

JHB makes a compelling argument. The most important thing to me though is that I'm comfortable with either Beckett, Lester or Dice pitching in the playoffs

[soxfan17881]

I gotta go with Dice-K.

[German_Sox]

Not very tough task to pick beckett. dicek is nice but he only goes 5 or 6 innings that leaves time for a heartbreaking loss with a suspect pen. besides becketts road era is alot better then at fenway id go beckett dice k lester and byrd if he pitches well down the end here. wakefield can be our long man those guys always loom large in playoffs and hes good at that

[redsoxrules]

bump...

 

beckett's been looking great lately and we all know his post season success

 

1.beckett

2.lester

3.dice k

4.Byrd

[BoSox21]

yea, its a pretty easy call now considering Beckett is starting to resemble himself