Varitek's struggles

[ORS]

Yeah' date=' but he's been pretty unlucky this year.....I think his batting average will settle around .250 to .260 area.[/quote']

Yeah, and if it does that bumps his OPS up into the mid-8's. I think he can produce at least at league average, which is .741 for the AL. That's for all positions, so if you get that out of your catcher, it's gravy, provided he's an average defender. Tek is falling well short of that mark right now, but I do like the idea of keeping his experience around.

 

Anyone know anything about Kottaras behind the plate? Receiving skills, arm?

[yeszir]

Anyone know anything about Kottaras behind the plate? Receiving skills, arm?

 

I don't personally know, but from soxprospects:

Strong arm with average accuracy, but Kottaras lacks quickness in his release when throwing runners out. Average glove. Scouts claim that his catching flaws are correctable, and they have improved since he's come into the system. Could stand to add a little bit of bulk. Has experience catching knuckleballers Steve Sparks and Charlie Zink.

[Thumper]

I don't personally know' date=' but from soxprospects:[/quote']

 

Maybe when the rosters expand later on they should call him up and work him out a little, see where he stands on a major league level. Maybe for a few games.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Varitek is finished as a viable offensive option. He has been since the end of 2005. As Yankee fans, we are seeing the decline of Jeter. It happens to all players.

 

Anyone who thinks Varitek is, or could be, a good hitter from this point on, is clueless.

 

Hmmm...let's check Varitek's ordinal rank among AL catchers by VORP, 2003 to the present:

 

[table] Year | Rank

2003 | 3rd

2004 | 5th

2005 | 2nd

2006 | 14th

2007 | 4th

2008 | 16th [/table]

 

I don't see a trend of steady decline. I see a top-five catcher with two bad seasons, 2006 and 2008.

 

Let's look at those seasons month-by-month.

 

[table] Month of 2006 | Varitek's OPS

April | .720

May | .748

June | .713

July | .787

August | (injured)

September | .638

|

Month of 2008 | Varitek's OPS

April | .724

May | .913

June | .381[/table]

 

OK...I see two-thirds of each of Tek's two bad seasons looking pretty reasonable. In 2006 he was injured at the trade deadline and he sucked upon his return. In 2008 he flourished in May but sucked incredibly in June.

 

Tek has had a BABIP of .167 this month and he's struck out 18 times in 65 PA (27.7%). Over his career he's struck out 20.0% of the time and he's had a BABIP of .308. That BABIP can be expected to return to normal; that strikeout percentage might or might not go back to his career norm. His career OPS is .792; If he keeps striking out the way he has in June, but his BABIP rebounds, he'll be putting up a .638 OPS. That's way better than a .381 OPS, but it's still not really MLB starting-caliber, even for a catcher.

 

In summary, I don't think that it's fair to suggest that Tek has declined badly since 2005. That's just not true: in all of 2007 and two-thirds of 2006 and 2008 he's been pretty much his 2003-2005 All Star self. He is, however, currently in a slump bad enough that it can't be explained away with BABIP and bad luck--he's missing the ball with his bat too much, and it could be slowing reflexes, worsening vision, or opposing pitchers learning that he's developed a hole in his swing and the word getting around MLB.

 

Or...

 

For a ray of hope, Tek has posted a .167/.286/.278 in Interleague play this year. Maybe Tek's famous knowledge of opposing teams will pay off when he gets back to the AL.

 

Let's hope so.

[Jayhawk Bill]

BTW, BP just added current MLE's for AAA players.

 

Kottaras has an MLE of .210/.332/.412 right now...that's a low BA but a very credible OBP and SLG for a catcher.

[CrespoBlows]

Kottaras went 3/4 with his fifteenth homerun.

 

Batting average is up to .237.

[TheKilo]

Dude, Varitek has INTANGIBLES. And he knows how to CATCH A BASEBALL.

[CrespoBlows]

Dude' date=' Varitek has [b']INTANGIBLES.[/b] And he knows how to CATCH A BASEBALL.

 

Plus, Jason Johnson, Matt Clement, Kyle Snyder, and Wade Miller all owe 'Tek, at the minimum, 3 runs of their ERA.

 

Pedro said it, it must be true.

[Soxfan1]

He's to important outside of his offense. Simple.

 

I can't believe someone in this thread said he'd settle for a backup role. No way in hell.

[dowling25]

I can't see the Red Sox trading for a catcher this year really. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to re-sign him for a couple years.

[CrespoBlows]

He's to important outside of his offense. Simple.

 

Really, how?

 

I can't believe someone in this thread said he'd settle for a backup role. No way in hell.

 

He's a great teammate, right? Wait, I guess only when he's getting what he wants. If he doesn't like it, he can get the f*** out. Go see if someone else wants to pay him $10 million to OPS .700.

[Cocos Disciples]

I can't see the Red Sox trading for a catcher this year really. I wouldn't be surprised if they try to re-sign him for a couple years.

 

Surprised? Nah. Stupefied? Yup. He's not a productive catcher anymore, I think it was JHB that posted that he has the 16th highest VORP of AL catchers. Of 14 starters...

[Soxfan1]

Really, how?

 

 

 

He's a great teammate, right? Wait, I guess only when he's getting what he wants. If he doesn't like it, he can get the f*** out. Go see if someone else wants to pay him $10 million to OPS .700.

 

 

This is why I don't post in the Red Sox section anymore.

 

I see Varitek as a leader. Aging and old, but still valuable and an asset to the function of the team.

 

It's like that screw that holding something together. You could remove it since it's old and might give out at any moment, but how long will it take to find a suitable replacement and is it worth the risk and test of taking out the screw and finding a new one?

 

The guy has got 2 no hitters in the last 2 years from kids who don't do it without him. The strongest memory I have of Tek is when he was injured I believe 2 years ago and this team was ridiculously bad. I believe in small samples and all I remember was that time was the lowest point I remember experiencing as a fan. Tek matters.

 

I don't know about resigning him after this year. I wouldn't mind a risk, but if our offense with Manny and others stays in place then I wouldn't mind keeping him for every reason he deserves to stay outside of his offense. However, I don't think they should give in to demands and I expect some sort of hometown discount. We're going to be dishing out enough for Manny next season.

[Jayhawk Bill]

How much are Jason Varitek's intangibles worth?

 

If Tek helps out pitchers with either defense or game-calling, it should show up in the pitcher's stats. What we need is something like an OPS+ allowed, normalized to the pitcher's own normal standard of performance.

 

We can find this. Baseball Reference offers a tOPS+, which is an OPS+ allowed, by catcher, for each pitcher, normalized to that pitcher's OPS allowed with all catchers for the period in question.

 

For every 2008 Boston Red Sox pitcher, here is their career tOPS+ with Tek catching them. Remember, lower is better:

 

[table]Pitcher's Name | Varitek OPS+ | Age

Buchholz | 110 | 23

Masterson | 102 | 23

Hansen | 90 | 24

Lester | 88 | 24

Pauley | 51 | 25

Delcarmen | 93 | 26

Aardsma | 55 | 26

Papelbon | 98 | 27

Smith | 100 | 27

Matsuzaka | 98 | 27

Beckett | 99 | 28

Lopez | 81 | 30

Snyder | 98 | 30

Okajima | 89 | 32

Corey | 155 | 34

Tavarez | 106 | 35

Colon | 110 | 35

Wakefield | 109 | 41

Timlin | 110 | 42[/table]

 

OK, the career OPS+ for pitchers over 33 will probably be better with catchers who caught them in their 20's than with catchers who caught them in their 30's. Take away those guys...and take away Chris Smith, who has never thrown to any catcher except Jason Varitek...we're left with this:

 

[table]Pitcher's Name | Varitek OPS+ | Age

Buchholz | 110 | 23

Masterson | 102 | 23

Hansen | 90 | 24

Lester | 88 | 24

Pauley | 51 | 25

Delcarmen | 93 | 26

Aardsma | 55 | 26

Papelbon | 98 | 27

Matsuzaka | 98 | 27

Beckett | 99 | 28

Lopez | 81 | 30

Snyder | 98 | 30

Okajima | 89 | 32[/table]

 

With these pitchers, Varitek has a median career tOPS+ of 93, suggesting a median 3.5% reduction in OBP and SLG with Tek catching...and very, very roughly suggesting a possible 7% reduction in these pitchers' ERAs...which might be an effect worth somewhere in the range of 20 runs so far this season.

 

Caveats:

 

1) While the work through the median tOPS+ determination is carefully described and can be replicated, the work in the last paragraph above, changing a median tOPS+ to team runs saved, involves many unstated assumptions in the guesstimation process.

 

2) Remember how we knocked out pitchers over 33 because their careers were already in decline, throwing our metric off? If you look at Tek's single season tOPS+ with these pitchers, it doesn't seem that he necessarily helps them at all with his game calling. It could be that Tek helps younger pitchers far more than he helps veteran pitchers.

 

3) Sabermetricians have searched for catchers' effect on batters with great diligence and they've never found it. This analysis isn't close to statistical significance in its size and scope.

 

Observations:

 

1) Yeah, this isn't statistically significant, but it sure is suggestive of a positive effect.

 

2) Twenty runs is roughly the difference in value as a hitter between Jason Varitek and the top couple of catchers in the AL. Adding 20 RC to Tek's 2008 total, and adding zero to all other catchers (which is, on average, correct), would rank Tek second in the AL behind Joe Mauer.

 

3) Jason Varitek rocks handling weird, young pitchers. Look at the tOPS+ for Pauley, Aardsma and Lopez, and keep in mind that nobody dreamed that Chris Smith could thrive in MLB. Okajima's success might also be credited in large measure to Tek.

 

4) Some interesting stuff I learned doing this research: Mike Timlin has thrown more to Jason Varitek than to any two other MLB catchers combined, and Julian Tavarez has thrown more pitches to Tek than to any other MLB catcher.

 

***

 

In summary, while this isn't PROOF that Jason Varitek makes a big difference with his ability to call games, it sure is indicative of a positive effect that fits with Tek's reputation with MLB players, managers, and media professionals. I call benefit of the doubt for Tek: before I decide that Boston should get rid of him, I'm adding 40-odd RC per year to his batting stats before saying that he's no longer starting caliber.

[a700hitter]

How much are Jason Varitek's intangibles worth?

 

If Tek helps out pitchers with either defense or game-calling, it should show up in the pitcher's stats. What we need is something like an OPS+ allowed, normalized to the pitcher's own normal standard of performance.

 

We can find this. Baseball Reference offers a tOPS+, which is an OPS+ allowed, by catcher, for each pitcher, normalized to that pitcher's OPS allowed with all catchers for the period in question.

 

For every 2008 Boston Red Sox pitcher, here is their career tOPS+ with Tek catching them. Remember, lower is better:

 

[table]Pitcher's Name | Varitek OPS+ | Age

Buchholz | 110 | 23

Masterson | 102 | 23

Hansen | 90 | 24

Lester | 88 | 24

Pauley | 51 | 25

Delcarmen | 93 | 26

Aardsma | 55 | 26

Papelbon | 98 | 27

Smith | 100 | 27

Matsuzaka | 98 | 27

Beckett | 99 | 28

Lopez | 81 | 30

Snyder | 98 | 30

Okajima | 89 | 32

Corey | 155 | 34

Tavarez | 106 | 35

Colon | 110 | 35

Wakefield | 109 | 41

Timlin | 110 | 42[/table]

 

OK, the career OPS+ for pitchers over 33 will probably be better with catchers who caught them in their 20's than with catchers who caught them in their 30's. Take away those guys...and take away Chris Smith, who has never thrown to any catcher except Jason Varitek...we're left with this:

 

[table]Pitcher's Name | Varitek OPS+ | Age

Buchholz | 110 | 23

Masterson | 102 | 23

Hansen | 90 | 24

Lester | 88 | 24

Pauley | 51 | 25

Delcarmen | 93 | 26

Aardsma | 55 | 26

Papelbon | 98 | 27

Matsuzaka | 98 | 27

Beckett | 99 | 28

Lopez | 81 | 30

Snyder | 98 | 30

Okajima | 89 | 32[/table]

 

With these pitchers, Varitek has a median career tOPS+ of 93, suggesting a median 3.5% reduction in OBP and SLG with Tek catching...and very, very roughly suggesting a possible 7% reduction in these pitchers' ERAs...which might be an effect worth somewhere in the range of 20 runs so far this season.

 

Caveats:

 

1) While the work through the median tOPS+ determination is carefully described and can be replicated, the work in the last paragraph above, changing a median tOPS+ to team runs saved, involves many unstated assumptions in the guesstimation process.

 

2) Remember how we knocked out pitchers over 33 because their careers were already in decline, throwing our metric off? If you look at Tek's single season tOPS+ with these pitchers, it doesn't seem that he necessarily helps them at all with his game calling. It could be that Tek helps younger pitchers far more than he helps veteran pitchers.

 

3) Sabermetricians have searched for catchers' effect on batters with great diligence and they've never found it. This analysis isn't close to statistical significance in its size and scope.

 

Observations:

 

1) Yeah, this isn't statistically significant, but it sure is suggestive of a positive effect.

 

2) Twenty runs is roughly the difference in value as a hitter between Jason Varitek and the top couple of catchers in the AL. Adding 20 RC to Tek's 2008 total, and adding zero to all other catchers (which is, on average, correct), would rank Tek second in the AL behind Joe Mauer.

 

3) Jason Varitek rocks handling weird, young pitchers. Look at the tOPS+ for Pauley, Aardsma and Lopez, and keep in mind that nobody dreamed that Chris Smith could thrive in MLB. Okajima's success might also be credited in large measure to Tek.

 

4) Some interesting stuff I learned doing this research: Mike Timlin has thrown more to Jason Varitek than to any two other MLB catchers combined, and Julian Tavarez has thrown more pitches to Tek than to any other MLB catcher.

 

***

 

In summary, while this isn't PROOF that Jason Varitek makes a big difference with his ability to call games, it sure is indicative of a positive effect that fits with Tek's reputation with MLB players, managers, and media professionals. I call benefit of the doubt for Tek: before I decide that Boston should get rid of him, I'm adding 40-odd RC per year to his batting stats before saying that he's no longer starting caliber.

Bill, I don't know where you come up with this stuff or how you have the time, but thanks.

[Soxfan1]

I gave up on Bill. Theres always some new stat that shows I'm wrong.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I gave up on Bill. Theres always some new stat that shows I'm wrong.

 

Hmmmm...and I'd thought that I'd just used an interesting application of tOPS+ to show that you were right...:dunno:

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Varitek killed the Red Sox today against the Astros going 0-3 leaving 4 men on base and looking lost at the plate. This is starting to get old....

 

I'm getting sick of having dead weight in the lineup between him and our singles extrordinare Julio Lugo. I don't have an answer for the Varitek situation but I want Jed Lowrie back. I also would like to find a way for Chris Carter to be in the lineup. Brandon Moss should be sent down to get more playing time and Manny should see more time in the field with Carter being the DH for the coming week against the Rays and Yankees.

[jacksonianmarch]

If Manny is hurting, putting him in LF while the DH spot is unoccupied is a bad thing. You want Manny to be 100% by the time Papi comes back.

[MANNYHOF24]

Varitek has had a horrible month. His swing just looks awful, he has no timing or power. I don't know why all of a sudden he became the worst hitter in baseball, but it happened. This guys started off the year on fire, I think he was hitting .295 in late May. Does anybody else think this could have something to do with the 2 serious ilnesses he had this year, or is his sucky-ness starting to show? I think if we gave him a week off to clear his mind and get to a good place physically he could still be an assest down the stretch. We need Tek to hit better than .220.

[Mr Crunchy]

teks shortcomings get exposed much more when the other guys are failing along with him.

someone suggested that he needs some rest

im inclined to agree,sit him for the week before the break and hopefully he can recover and get his average back to sucky as opposed to putrid.

[VA Sox Fan]

Ok, Tek's struggles are my fault. I got his autograph while stranded in the Cleveland Airport on Friday, June 13th. My brother says I jinxed him. <_ src="//d1mqtyoopj0gsc.cloudfront.net/emoticons/default_angry.png" alt=":angry:">

[rician blast]

Ok' date=' Tek's struggles are my fault. I got his autograph while stranded in the Cleveland Airport on Friday, June 13th. My brother says I jinxed him. <_ src="//d1mqtyoopj0gsc.cloudfront.net/emoticons/default_angry.png" alt=":angry:">[/quote']

 

It wasn't the autograph, VA. Admit it, you stalked him, hog-tied him in the men's room and had your way with him. He feels so cheap and used now...you broke his will.

[VA Sox Fan]

It wasn't the autograph' date=' VA. Admit it, you stalked him, hog-tied him in the men's room and had your way with him. He feels so cheap and used now...you broke his will.[/quote']

 

 

You got me there!

 

I was nervous as s*** approaching him, but he was cool.

[rician blast]

You got me there!

 

I was nervous as s*** approaching him, but he was cool.

 

Of course he was cool, approached by a southern belle like yourself, who wouldn't be?

[Mr Crunchy]

i knew there was a southern connection to his misery

ellie mae,he has no legs,what the f*** man??

[VA Sox Fan]

i knew there was a southern connection to his misery

ellie mae,he has no legs,what the f*** man??

 

 

Couldn't control myself Seany, he's even more attractive in street clothes and in person

[jacksonianmarch]

Varitek has had a horrible month. His swing just looks awful' date=' he has no timing or power. I don't know why all of a sudden he became the worst hitter in baseball, but it happened. This guys started off the year on fire, I think he was hitting .295 in late May. Does anybody else think this could have something to do with the 2 serious ilnesses he had this year, or is his sucky-ness starting to show? I think if we gave him a week off to clear his mind and get to a good place physically he could still be an assest down the stretch. We need Tek to hit better than .220.[/quote']

 

serious illnesses? He had colds.

[Jayhawk Bill]

serious illnesses? He had colds.

 

It's rare to find a doctor willing to make statement-of-fact diagnoses on the basis of second-hand Internet stories.

[MANNYHOF24]

serious illnesses? He had colds.

 

Colds dont keep a player like Varitek out for 10 games, buddy.