Youkilis - Where does he rank?

[jacksonianmarch]

Youk's worth is directly tied to his ability to play 3b IMO. As a 1b, even as a GG 1b, he isnt even a top 10 player at his position.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Youk's worth is directly tied to his ability to play 3b IMO. As a 1b' date=' even as a GG 1b, he isnt even a top 10 player at his position.[/quote']

 

Name ten better.

[ORS]

That's easy....

 

8 people that should be there

Jason Giambi

Shelley Duncan

 

Sheesh, Bill, what a noob.

[TheKilo]

youkilis better than Chipper' date=' cmon now[/quote']

 

Offense and defense?

 

Besides Chipper has issues staying healthy.

[jacksonianmarch]

Name ten better.

 

Pena

Teixiera

Howard

N. Johnson

Pujols

Berkman

Lee

Fielder

Konerko

Morneau

Gonzalez

Helton

M. Cabrera

 

I know you said O and D but I'd rather have these players starting than Youkilis at 1b. Youks D is better than nearly all of them, but as a 1b, I'll take the production. Youkilis true value, IMO, is as a solid backup 3b and even a 2b if need be. If Lowell left and Youkilis was your regular 3b, his value would jump immensely.

[26 to 6]

That's easy....

 

8 people that should be there

Jason Giambi

Shelley Duncan

 

Sheesh, Bill, what a noob.

Don't forget WIlson Betemit and Morgan Ensberg. Oh,and even still I'd take a retired Tino over Youk ANY DAY.

 

Funny.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Pena

Teixiera

Howard

N. Johnson

Pujols

Berkman

Lee

Fielder

Konerko

Morneau

Gonzalez

Helton

M. Cabrera

 

I know you said O and D but I'd rather have these players starting than Youkilis at 1b. Youks D is better than nearly all of them, but as a 1b, I'll take the production. Youkilis true value, IMO, is as a solid backup 3b and even a 2b if need be. If Lowell left and Youkilis was your regular 3b, his value would jump immensely.

 

Certainly Youkilis would be EVEN MORE VALUABLE at third base, but the Red Sox, as constructed, are best as a team with Youkilis at first base and Lowell, healthy, at third base.

 

So let's check those you considered to be better than Youkilis at first base.

 

Carlos Pena, Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder

 

Concur.

 

Albert Pujols may be the best player in MLB. Mark Teixeira is an excellent MVP-caliber first baseman.

 

I'm less certain of Carlos Pena, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder as candidates to MAINTAIN their excellence than Kevin Youkilis is. Frankly, all three of these guys are too big to play the field. Still, combining offense and defense, and taking the mean of likely outcomes, even with the dangers of swift decline due to their size, these three are probably more valuable than Youkilis.

 

But OK...five.

 

Nick Johnson

 

You need to stop smoking crack. Nick Johnson had exactly one season out of five where he was better than Kevin Youkilis's current established level of excellence. Then Johnson was injured, missing a whole MLB season. He's now batting .209.

 

Next...

 

Lance Berkman

 

Maybe. Two issues:

 

1) While Berkman is now playing first base, he's only played around 30% of his career games at first base.

 

2) Berkman is three years older than Youkilis, past his prime and at the age where decline is more likely.

 

But OK...six.

 

Derrek Lee

 

Nope.

 

Three things:

 

1) Derrek Lee's 2006 sucked due to injury. Avoiding injury is a skill--Youkilis appears to be better than Lee at that skill.

 

2) Derrek Lee hit .265/.352/.397 away from Wrigley Field in his comeback from that miserable 2006 last year. Were it not for his opportunity to play in one of the greatest hitter's parks in baseball history, he'd've been a mediocrity.

 

3) The NL is less competitive than the AL.

 

Paul Konerko

 

You missed the news: Konerko entered the decline phase of his career last year, and he's batting .203 this spring. He was worse than Youkilis last year, and he's much worse now. As an aside, Konerko has a 98-point OPS advantage playing at home.

 

Justin Morneau

 

The most overrated Minnesota MVP since Zoilo Versalles?

 

Setting aside that Morneau will never play first base as well as Youk, he's had only one good year. He hits more home runs than Youk (as does Konerko), but home runs aren't the sole reckoning of value.

 

Adrian Gonzalez

 

I didn't count him in the 45 players better than Youk that I posted because his batting line in Interleague play is only .267/.307/.433. The NL West is weak--this is proof.

 

Todd Helton

 

At their respective peaks? Sure! At Helton's current age? Given his 178-point career OPS advantage playing in Denver, his advantage playing in the NL, and given his current batting line of .264/.366/.414, no.

 

Miguel Cabrera

 

Cabrera has played eight of his career 742 games at first base.

 

***

 

I count six, not ten. We disagree.

[jacksonianmarch]

Derrek Lee's 07 sucked?

 

.317/.400/.513 all well above Youk's numbers. Lee had more homers, doubles, runs etc. You love numbers jayhawk, but this one isnt even close

 

Helton has been better over his whole career and once again had a higher BA, OBP and SLG last yr. Also, Helton is equal to Youkilis in defense. Youk's strength, the walks, well Helton had nearly 50% more.

 

As for Morneau, 65HR and 241 RBIs over 2 yrs is the type of production I expect from a first baseman. Youkilis has him on the walks (not by much) and the average. But Morneau slugs better. Then again, if you count the past 2 yrs (exactly the amt of time Youkilis has been a regular), Morneau is better, much better.

 

You are really going to try to argue Berkman being worse than Youkilis? Really? Mr. Numbers is actually going to try and defend that? Stupidity. Berkman's down yr was better that Youks best yr.

 

Konerko's decline phase last yr was better than Youkilis' season once again. Higher OPS with more power, similar walks, but less hits.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Derrek Lee's 07 sucked?

 

.317/.400/.513 all well above Youk's numbers. Lee had more homers, doubles, runs etc. You love numbers jayhawk, but this one isnt even close

 

No, it's not: he played in the NL while Youk played in the AL, and away from his home field he could only hit .265/.352/.397, as you intentionally ignored. Take Lee out of Wrigley and he's mediocre.

 

Helton has been better over his whole career and once again had a higher BA, OBP and SLG last yr. Also, Helton is equal to Youkilis in defense. Youk's strength, the walks, well Helton had nearly 50% more.

 

Read my post if you're going to bother answering. You ignored the huge home park effect of playing in Coors, and you ignored the NL to AL difference again. You also ignored his .264 start and his age...if Youkilis played for the Rockies, he'd be, by far, the better hitter in 2008.

 

Oops...he already is the better hitter in 2008!

 

As for Morneau, 65HR and 241 RBIs over 2 yrs is the type of production I expect from a first baseman. Youkilis has him on the walks (not by much) and the average. But Morneau slugs better. Then again, if you count the past 2 yrs (exactly the amt of time Youkilis has been a regular), Morneau is better, much better.

 

Morneau has one good year, and it's not last year. Furthermore, you're ignoring defense and belittling the huge difference in OBP. Morneau was better in 2006, but Youkilis has been better since then (and before then).

 

You are really going to try to argue Berkman being worse than Youkilis? Really? Mr. Numbers is actually going to try and defend that? Stupidity. Berkman's down yr was better that Youks best yr.

 

I counted Berkman as number six on your side. My only points were that he's not a career first baseman and that he's old. Did you bother to read my post? :dunno:

 

Konerko's decline phase last yr was better than Youkilis' season once again. Higher OPS with more power, similar walks, but less hits.

 

Konerko's season was worth two wins less than Youkilis's season last year, source WARP1 from BP DT Cards. The OBP and the fielding matter. Calling Konerko better last year is absurd. Ignoring Konerko's grounded-flounder start to the 2008 season to try to insult a far better Red Sox player is, well...

 

...something I'd expect of a Yankees fan. :harhar:

 

You're four short of ten still...other ideas?

[ksushi]

I am so close to siding with Jacko on this one. If he could learn to sustain his early level of play over the course of an ENTIRE season, than I would agree with you JHB, but as of right now youk is .280/.380/.450 1st basemen who gloves well. That guy is pretty good, and he has a ton of value to the sox - top five in team win shares on the team last year. I just don't see him as a top ten 1st basemen.

 

 

Helton had a MUCH better season than Youk last year and plays an equally good first base. I don't care what he did at Coors, if it was so easy to hit there, they would be a much more formidable team than they have been and they would be pumping out career .300 hitters at a much better pace. Todd Helton is one of the best players to play the game. He will probably be a hall of famer as his legacy remains unscathed by the steriod era and he was one of the better hitters of our generation. Youk could not lift Heltons jock off of the ground with a crane.

 

Adrian Gonzalezs' inter-league line doesn't strike me as an important stat in determining overall value. Last year he went something like .280/.370/.500. The important part being the .500 slugging, something I would be willing to venture kevin youkilis will never do over the course of an entire season. Other things Gonzalez has done K-Youk has yet to do (and may never do)? Hit 30 home runs. Drive in 100 runs ( in a much weaker line-up). Hit .300 for a season. If you wouldn't take Adrian over Youk as your major league first basemen, you're out of your mind.

 

Morneau is one guy who you have an argument with. Despite impressive power numbers, Youk was a better OPS guy than Morneau. But, in 3 full seasons as the Twins first basemen, he has hit 20 or more home runs 3 times, driven in 100 twice (130 in '06), and posted an OPS of .930 in '06. He is a presence in the lineup that Youk will never be. His 06 was phenomenal. I think you have to consider Morneau a better hitter than Kevin Youkilis and any sane person not lying to themselves would agree. Fielding is another story, but how much is fielding really worth over the course of a season from the first base position?

 

 

I think you need to look at Paul Konerko's career a little longer if you really think at their respective peaks Kevin Youkilis is a better player. Paul Konerko is a power hitting beast. He had a down year in terms of average hitting which any player who tends to strike out a lot will do as they get up in years, but with any luck on his side this year, another year around his career averages in his rate stats is definitely not out of the question. He showed very little if any decline in power hitting last year with 30+ homers, 30+ doubles and in a down year a .490 slugging percentage which beats any figure Kevin Youkilis has posted in his (albeit short so far) career. You'd be crazy to trade Paul Konerko's best years for Kevin Youkilis's. Granted, Youk might still be looking ahead at his best while Konerko's are certainly in the rear view, Konerko is in an entirely higher class than Youk as a hitter. Plus, Konerks goatee is MUCH better than Youks over the top broom bristle goatee that I think is thicker than any of earths most thickly settled forests. Konerko has the slight but very much there goatee that is on a level of class that Youk hasn't really achieved thus far in his facial hair ventures.

 

 

Derek Lee is a better fielding first basemen than Youk. And even if Youk is better at staying on the field, Derrek Lee is so much better than Youk that it doesn't really matter. Going all the way back to 2000, Derrek Lee has posted good year after good year, only missing the majority of one season. Missed some serious time after the MVP-type '05 season in '06 but other than that never played less than 150 games from 2000-2007. He isn't injury prone by any stretch. It takes more than a skill, it takes luck to play day after day for a 162 game stretch without getting injured. The same can be said for playing season after season over the course of a career. Youk can say whats up if he ever posts a 1.000 OPS or ever hits 40 home runs or ever has 6 consecutive seasons of 20+ homers. First basemen are traditionally power hitters who strike out too much, age poorly, and field poorly. Derrek Lee hits for power, fields exceptionally, and has yet to show the ugly signs of age putting up a .317/.400/.513 line last year. Derrek Lee is the better player. The NL being a less competitive league is a pretty misleading thing to say. What makes the AL a better league than the NL is that in terms of hitting, the AL has gained more talent than they have lost over the past 15 years or so. The quality of pitching from league to league isn't necessarily less competitive. Come up with a couple examples of guys switching from the AL to the NL and thriving at the plate and we can talk about it in its own thread.

 

I count eleven and unless you can make some kind of magical argument against these guys, I think thats the count. I would put youk as the 12th best first basemen in the major leagues. Maybe we should start a thread and rank the top position players at each position by arguing it out and voting on it. Anyone down? We don't seem to get good thorough arguments in anymore.

 

plzplzplzplzplzplzplzplzplz?

[Jayhawk Bill]

I am so close to siding with Jacko on this one. If he could learn to sustain his early level of play over the course of an ENTIRE season, than I would agree with you JHB, but as of right now youk is .280/.380/.450 1st basemen who gloves well. That guy is pretty good, and he has a ton of value to the sox - top five in team win shares on the team last year. I just don't see him as a top ten 1st basemen.

 

 

Helton had a MUCH better season than Youk last year and plays an equally good first base. I don't care what he did at Coors, if it was so easy to hit there, they would be a much more formidable team than they have been and they would be pumping out career .300 hitters at a much better pace. Todd Helton is one of the best players to play the game. He will probably be a hall of famer as his legacy remains unscathed by the steriod era and he was one of the better hitters of our generation. Youk could not lift Heltons jock off of the ground with a crane.

 

Adrian Gonzalezs' inter-league line doesn't strike me as an important stat in determining overall value. Last year he went something like .280/.370/.500. The important part being the .500 slugging, something I would be willing to venture kevin youkilis will never do over the course of an entire season. Other things Gonzalez has done K-Youk has yet to do (and may never do)? Hit 30 home runs. Drive in 100 runs ( in a much weaker line-up). Hit .300 for a season. If you wouldn't take Adrian over Youk as your major league first basemen, you're out of your mind.

 

Morneau is one guy who you have an argument with. Despite impressive power numbers, Youk was a better OPS guy than Morneau. But, in 3 full seasons as the Twins first basemen, he has hit 20 or more home runs 3 times, driven in 100 twice (130 in '06), and posted an OPS of .930 in '06. He is a presence in the lineup that Youk will never be. His 06 was phenomenal. I think you have to consider Morneau a better hitter than Kevin Youkilis and any sane person not lying to themselves would agree. Fielding is another story, but how much is fielding really worth over the course of a season from the first base position?

 

 

I think you need to look at Paul Konerko's career a little longer if you really think at their respective peaks Kevin Youkilis is a better player. Paul Konerko is a power hitting beast. He had a down year in terms of average hitting which any player who tends to strike out a lot will do as they get up in years, but with any luck on his side this year, another year around his career averages in his rate stats is definitely not out of the question. He showed very little if any decline in power hitting last year with 30+ homers, 30+ doubles and in a down year a .490 slugging percentage which beats any figure Kevin Youkilis has posted in his (albeit short so far) career. You'd be crazy to trade Paul Konerko's best years for Kevin Youkilis's. Granted, Youk might still be looking ahead at his best while Konerko's are certainly in the rear view, Konerko is in an entirely higher class than Youk as a hitter. Plus, Konerks goatee is MUCH better than Youks over the top broom bristle goatee that I think is thicker than any of earths most thickly settled forests. Konerko has the slight but very much there goatee that is on a level of class that Youk hasn't really achieved thus far in his facial hair ventures.

 

 

Derek Lee is a better fielding first basemen than Youk. And even if Youk is better at staying on the field, Derrek Lee is so much better than Youk that it doesn't really matter. Going all the way back to 2000, Derrek Lee has posted good year after good year, only missing the majority of one season. Missed some serious time after the MVP-type '05 season in '06 but other than that never played less than 150 games from 2000-2007. He isn't injury prone by any stretch. It takes more than a skill, it takes luck to play day after day for a 162 game stretch without getting injured. The same can be said for playing season after season over the course of a career. Youk can say whats up if he ever posts a 1.000 OPS or ever hits 40 home runs or ever has 6 consecutive seasons of 20+ homers. First basemen are traditionally power hitters who strike out too much, age poorly, and field poorly. Derrek Lee hits for power, fields exceptionally, and has yet to show the ugly signs of age putting up a .317/.400/.513 line last year. Derrek Lee is the better player. The NL being a less competitive league is a pretty misleading thing to say. What makes the AL a better league than the NL is that in terms of hitting, the AL has gained more talent than they have lost over the past 15 years or so. The quality of pitching from league to league isn't necessarily less competitive. Come up with a couple examples of guys switching from the AL to the NL and thriving at the plate and we can talk about it in its own thread.

 

I count eleven and unless you can make some kind of magical argument against these guys, I think thats the count. I would put youk as the 12th best first basemen in the major leagues. Maybe we should start a thread and rank the top position players at each position by arguing it out and voting on it. Anyone down? We don't seem to get good thorough arguments in anymore.

 

plzplzplzplzplzplzplzplzplz?

 

ksushi, I think that we're differing in four key areas:

 

1) NL to AL equivalence. The two leagues aren't equivalent right now--the AL is much stronger. You're asking for a list of guys thriving in the NL more than the AL...just from very recent seasons in Boston, I offer:

 

Hanley Ramirez

Derek Lowe

Bronson Arroyo

Alan Embree

Cla Meredith

Josh Bard

Edgar Renteria

Mike Remlinger

Jason Johnson

JT Snow

JD Drew

Joel Pineiro

Mark Loretta

Wily Mo Pena

Gabe Kapler

David Wells

 

Do I have to go on?

 

I believe that the ALE of NL batters is about 0.95 now...I could reverse-engineer BP PECOTA for something more exact. That's huge--that makes a .300 hitter in the NL a .285 hitter in the AL. That's why I check Interleague stats, and that's why I discounted Adrian Gonzalez for his mediocrity facing the AL. There are AAA players who simply can't make the jump to MLB--I see Gonzalez as an NL player who hasn't demonstrated the ability to make the jump to AL play.

 

2) Home Park Effect. Fenway suppresses power hitting, a number of ballparks accentuate power hitting, and there's a tendency to emphasize power hitting of first basemen as the key component of their value. The Park Factor of Coors Field for home runs was 1.218 last year--a batter who would hit 10 home runs in a neutral MLB ballpark would hit 12 playing all of his games at Coors Field. Wrigley was 1.150; Fenway was 0.876. Comparing Youkilis to Helton and Lee without considering BOTH the AL-to-NL effect and the home park effect is grossly unfair...and, remember, some batters--including both Lee and Helton--benefit disproportionately from their home ballparks.

 

Heck, even Adrian Gonzalez benefitted, odd though it seems...eleven of his thirty home runs last year were in just 26 games in Colorado, Arizona, Milwaukee, and Philly, four of the best home run parks in MLB.

 

Kevin Youkilis got only two starts in those four ballparks. In two excellent HR ballparks in the AL East last year, Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards, he got a combined OBP of .519...and that degree of OBP outvalues the best SLG in the league. One must offer due credit to Youk's OBP, even though he has only medium power.

 

As an aside, US Cellular in Chicago had a home run factor of 1.220 last year...Paul Konerko took advantage of that.

 

3) Age. I'm comparing Youkilis at his current age to other players at their current ages. That helps Youkilis with respect to Helton, Lee, and Konerko, who are declining with age. If we're using career peaks, you know that Jacko would've uttered the name "Giambi." He didn't--the standard of current value is clear.

 

Helton was a better player than Youkilis will be, and Lee and Konerko may be on a career basis. I'm comparing all of them regarding true value in 2008, which includes both recent career value and current value.

 

4) Defense. Defense at first base CAN make a difference. I've considered fielding stats in my assessments--and Youkilis is a Gold Glove, while most first basemen are liabilities. Most of my evaluation and my explanations were based on hitting, but Youkilis can field his corner exceptionally well--it does matter.

 

***

 

I count six, not eleven, better than Youkilis. Given that you use allegations of insanity in your post to me, could I respond by calling you insane to differ, without violating Talksox guidelines?

 

Or, conversely, these factors considered, may we reach agreement that Youkilis is within the top ten? That gives you leeway to differ on a player or two, while we might still unite against the Herald of the Evil Empire.

[ksushi]

ksushi, I think that we're differing in four key areas:

 

1) NL to AL equivalence. The two leagues aren't equivalent right now--the AL is much stronger. You're asking for a list of guys thriving in the NL more than the AL...just from very recent seasons in Boston, I offer:

 

Hanley Ramirez

Derek Lowe

Bronson Arroyo

Alan Embree

Cla Meredith

Josh Bard

Edgar Renteria

Mike Remlinger

Jason Johnson

JT Snow

JD Drew

Joel Pineiro

Mark Loretta

Wily Mo Pena

Gabe Kapler

David Wells

 

Do I have to go on?

 

 

No. You actually could have stopped a lot sooner as I asked for a list of players who thrived at the plate after a switch from the AL to the NL. Hanley Ramirez doesn't fit the bill because you can't really say he played in the AL. Josh Bard wasn't given enough of a shot on an AL team and really his boost could be attributed to the increase in playing time. Edgar is a good example of a guy who couldn't hit in the AL, but I think there is a difference in the way the game is played from NL to AL and Edgar is one of those guys who plays the NL style of ball a little better but I'll give that one to you. He had a very very underrated offensive season here and there was a lot of talk that he was injured. We'll see what he does this year. Mark Loretta was guy who thrived in both leagues, he had a very good season at Boston. Not sure what relevance Mark Loretta has in a discussion about quality of NL pitching. He punished pitchers in both leagues pretty well. And why don't we give Kapler a full season before we judge.

 

What I'm looking for is some proof that NL pitching is inferior to AL pitching. I'd say the difference between the NL and AL is that the AL has gained more hitting talent than it has lost over the past 15 or so years and has become a tough place to pitch. I don't think that the NL has just an overall inferior crop of players. Basically you're arguement that NL first basemen don't compare as well against Kevin Youkilis because NL pitching is some how better to hit off of for reasons you didn't supply, is crap.

 

Basically, we should establish the criterea we're working with here. Are we talking about careers, production at age 26-28, or what have you. I would argue that I would rather have Adrian Gonzalez, Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman and Todd Helton over their career and in 2008. At specific seasons in their careers, I might not. I'd have to break it down and look at it.

[Jayhawk Bill]

No. You actually could have stopped a lot sooner as I asked for a list of players who thrived at the plate after a switch from the AL to the NL. Hanley Ramirez doesn't fit the bill because you can't really say he played in the AL.

 

Except for that .000 batting average in the AL. Kinda makes a good start for an MVP-level NL player (and this entire AL vs. NL theme), doesn't it?

 

Josh Bard wasn't given enough of a shot on an AL team and really his boost could be attributed to the increase in playing time.

 

Josh Bard, AL: .240 in 513 AB

 

Josh Bard, NL: .297 in 697 AB ( as of this morning)

 

Amazing what 184 extra at bats can do after the first 513...whooops, no, he immediately rocked the NL in 2006. <_>

 

Edgar is a good example of a guy who couldn't hit in the AL

 

You're right.

 

Mark Loretta was guy who thrived in both leagues, he had a very good season at Boston.

 

He was better in BA, OBP and SLG the next year at Houston, just as his three-year average at San Diego had been far better. He was injured the year before coming to Boston, missing 57 games, and he still had an OPS one point better (and an OPS+ a whopping 14 points better before and 9 points better after Boston).

 

And why don't we give Kapler a full season before we judge.

 

Just sayin'...you realize that his OPS+ has DOUBLED from the mean of his last two seasons with Boston, right?

 

What I'm looking for is some proof that NL pitching is inferior to AL pitching.

 

And here I'll hit those players you chose to overlook:

 

Derek Lowe:

 

2004 (BOS) 5.42 ERA

2005 (LA) 3.61 ERA

 

Bronson Arroyo

 

2005 (BOS) 4.51 ERA

2005 (CIN) 3.29 ERA

 

Alan Embree

 

2005 (BOS/NY) 7.62 ERA

2006 (SD) 3.27 ERA

 

Mike Remlinger

 

2005 (BOS) 14.85 ERA

2006 (ATL) 4.03 ERA

 

Jason Johnson

 

2006 (BOS) 7.36 ERA

2006 (CIN) 3.12 ERA

 

J. T. Snow

 

2005 (SFG) 86 OPS+

2006 (BOS) 44 OPS+

 

J. D. Drew

 

2006 (LA) 126 OPS+

2007 (BOS) 105 OPS+

 

Joel Pineiro

 

2007 (BOS) 5.03 ERA

2007 (STL) 3.96 ERA

 

Wily Mo Pena

 

2007 (BOS) 72 OPS+

2007 (WSH) 124 OPS+

 

David Wells

 

2006 (BOS) 4.98 ERA

2006 (SD) 3.49 ERA

 

I guess that you don't address what you can't explain...and that you're on shaky ground on what you do choose to address.

 

I'd say the difference between the NL and AL is that the AL has gained more hitting talent than it has lost over the past 15 or so years and has become a tough place to pitch. I don't think that the NL has just an overall inferior crop of players. Basically you're arguement that NL first basemen don't compare as well against Kevin Youkilis because NL pitching is some how better to hit off of for reasons you didn't supply, is crap.

 

Do you really want me to reverse-engineer BP PECOTA? I say that your position is crap, and I further say that if you'd had a reasonable position your comeback wouldn't have just been shattered as absurd.

 

Basically, we should establish the criterea we're working with here. Are we talking about careers, production at age 26-28, or what have you. I would argue that I would rather have Adrian Gonzalez, Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman and Todd Helton over their career and in 2008. At specific seasons in their careers, I might not. I'd have to break it down and look at it

 

We're talking about current value. Youkilis is among the top ten first basemen--I peg him at number seven, but the issue is whether he's higher than number ten. I say that he is--do you really want to dispute that? :dunno:

[Youk Of The Nation]

Kevin Youkilis just moved up to number one in the totally friggin awesome column.

[soxfan17881]

I count six' date=' not ten. We disagree.[/quote']

 

This response is an example of why we're proud to have Jayhawk Bill on TalkSox.

[CrespoBlows]

 

 

Helton had a MUCH better season than Youk last year and plays an equally good first base. I don't care what he did at Coors, if it was so easy to hit there, they would be a much more formidable team than they have been and they would be pumping out career .300 hitters at a much better pace.

 

You can't be serious.

[SCM33]

Derrek Lee's 07 sucked?

 

.317/.400/.513 all well above Youk's numbers. Lee had more homers, doubles, runs etc. You love numbers jayhawk, but this one isnt even close

 

Helton has been better over his whole career and once again had a higher BA, OBP and SLG last yr. Also, Helton is equal to Youkilis in defense. Youk's strength, the walks, well Helton had nearly 50% more.

 

As for Morneau, 65HR and 241 RBIs over 2 yrs is the type of production I expect from a first baseman. Youkilis has him on the walks (not by much) and the average. But Morneau slugs better. Then again, if you count the past 2 yrs (exactly the amt of time Youkilis has been a regular), Morneau is better, much better.

 

You are really going to try to argue Berkman being worse than Youkilis? Really? Mr. Numbers is actually going to try and defend that? Stupidity. Berkman's down yr was better that Youks best yr.

 

Konerko's decline phase last yr was better than Youkilis' season once again. Higher OPS with more power, similar walks, but less hits.

 

I agree on Derek Lee, he is a better player......I really dont see an argument. If tomorrow Chicago calls theo and says...."theo, lee for youkilis straight up" Theo makes that deal, hands down.

 

I think thats the way we have to look at this, arguing numbers and all is great, but ask yourself....would you trade such and such a player for Youkilis.

 

Derrek Lee....Yes

 

Todd Helton...at this point no, a very good player....but Id take Youkilis.

 

Justin Morneau...Yes, Youkilis will never drive in 100 runs, or hit 30 HR as a 1B should. Youkilis power numbers really arent very good for a 1B. Many SS have better power numbers than Youkilis.

 

Lance Berkman...Yes, Berkman is not only one of the best 1B in the game, but one of the best players period.

 

Paul Konerko, no...hes a little too inconsistent for me...a very good player, but I think in a trade straight up, Youk has more value.

 

Carlos Pena....no, Pena is older, and Youkilis has already had a more productive career at this point. Pena has had 1 good season....and hes hovering around .200 right now 85 AB's in with a .333 OB%. Even in that monster season last year, he averages 161 K's a year and the fact that he never put up numbers like those at any level before last year scares me. In 2006 he hit 23 HR in 418 AB's.....in AAA!!!!

 

Mark Teixiera...Yes, in a heartbeat.

 

Ryan Howard....no, can you believe hes already 28!!?? People forget he was buried in Phi's farm system for a long time, and there was talk about him moving to LF. Bottom line is that he is an overweight slugger, someone who most certainly will not be able to play the position in a few years. Better offensive player...yes, better 1B'man? No. (Hes also been awful this year through almost 100 AB's).

 

Nick Johnson....no, a very comparable player, Youk's D gives him the edge.

 

Albert Pujols...rather straight forward yes.

 

Prince Fielder....no, I love the numbers, I love the age....I love the production he gives you out of the 1B position.....then I see a picture of the man putting up those numbers. Hes way too big to last and sooner or later health concerns will catch up to him, as they do with every big man. Hes an awesome talent, and a WAYYYY better offensive player than Youk....I just dont know if it would be worth the risk (although if Theo was presented with this deal, I think he takes it, but I wouldnt).

 

Adrian Gonzalez...No, I like Youk better. Put up great numbers, but Im not sure hes established himself quite yet. Another year from now....if he continues his trend, I would probably say yes.

 

Cabrera.....is not a 1B'man

[Mr Crunchy]

you need proof of the inferiority of nl vs al pitching?

its painfully evident watching chris carpenter winning cy youngs in st louis while getting his smacked around like a 10.00 whore the nite before rents due while in toronto.

clemens was a cy young winner in houston but was average at best in ny.

randy johnson carl pavano and jarret wrights adventures in the bronx speak for themselves

its really not that difficult to see in my opinion.

[rician blast]

While Youk may not be a 30 HR guy, Morneau would not likely hit 30 HRs a year playing half his games in Fenway, IMO.

[Paradisecity]

you need proof of the inferiority of nl vs al pitching?

its painfully evident watching chris carpenter winning cy youngs in st louis while getting his smacked around like a 10.00 whore the nite before rents due while in toronto.

clemens was a cy young winner in houston but was average at best in ny.

randy johnson carl pavano and jarret wrights adventures in the bronx speak for themselves

its really not that difficult to see in my opinion.

 

Sean, you could say that that proves that the NL can't pitch, or you could use the same to make a case that the NL can't hit.

 

I think the drop in ERA's shows the latter, even if you took out the pitcher batting.

 

Look at some of the guys hitting 7th, 8th in the NL. Furthermore, look at some of the guys hitting 3rd and 4th.

In my opinion, this is where you see the true disparity.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I agree on Derek Lee, he is a better player......I really dont see an argument. If tomorrow Chicago calls theo and says...."theo, lee for youkilis straight up" Theo makes that deal, hands down.

 

I think thats the way we have to look at this, arguing numbers and all is great, but ask yourself....would you trade such and such a player for Youkilis.

 

Derrek Lee....Yes

 

Todd Helton...at this point no, a very good player....but Id take Youkilis.

 

Justin Morneau...Yes, Youkilis will never drive in 100 runs, or hit 30 HR as a 1B should. Youkilis power numbers really arent very good for a 1B. Many SS have better power numbers than Youkilis.

 

Lance Berkman...Yes, Berkman is not only one of the best 1B in the game, but one of the best players period.

 

Paul Konerko, no...hes a little too inconsistent for me...a very good player, but I think in a trade straight up, Youk has more value.

 

Carlos Pena....no, Pena is older, and Youkilis has already had a more productive career at this point. Pena has had 1 good season....and hes hovering around .200 right now 85 AB's in with a .333 OB%. Even in that monster season last year, he averages 161 K's a year and the fact that he never put up numbers like those at any level before last year scares me. In 2006 he hit 23 HR in 418 AB's.....in AAA!!!!

 

Mark Teixiera...Yes, in a heartbeat.

 

Ryan Howard....no, can you believe hes already 28!!?? People forget he was buried in Phi's farm system for a long time, and there was talk about him moving to LF. Bottom line is that he is an overweight slugger, someone who most certainly will not be able to play the position in a few years. Better offensive player...yes, better 1B'man? No. (Hes also been awful this year through almost 100 AB's).

 

Nick Johnson....no, a very comparable player, Youk's D gives him the edge.

 

Albert Pujols...rather straight forward yes.

 

Prince Fielder....no, I love the numbers, I love the age....I love the production he gives you out of the 1B position.....then I see a picture of the man putting up those numbers. Hes way too big to last and sooner or later health concerns will catch up to him, as they do with every big man. Hes an awesome talent, and a WAYYYY better offensive player than Youk....I just dont know if it would be worth the risk (although if Theo was presented with this deal, I think he takes it, but I wouldnt).

 

Adrian Gonzalez...No, I like Youk better. Put up great numbers, but Im not sure hes established himself quite yet. Another year from now....if he continues his trend, I would probably say yes.

 

Cabrera.....is not a 1B'man

 

So you count five, while I count six...not too much difference.

 

***

 

Interesting that you declined on Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Carlos Pena, the three slow-moving sluggers I chose despite their challenges defensively at first base. I'm not too surprised regarding Carlos Pena: I look at his career and the MLEs for 2006 and I still consider him better, but I acknowledge that it's close. I really think that Howard and Fielder have enough power to edge out Youkilis, but I see your point, especially considering the NL-to-AL difference.

 

I'm still not swayed on Derrek Lee, though. I decided to check BP PECOTA for their thoughts:

 

[table] Year | Youkilis | Lee

2008 | 5.2 | 5.4

2009 | 4.8 | 3.9

2010 | 4.1 | 3.5

2011 | 3.5 | 2.4

2012 | 2.6 | 1.7[/table]

 

BP does like Lee better than Youkilis in 2008, although it's very close once home park effect, difference in the level of competition, and defense are considered. Every year thereafter Youkilis projects to do better than Lee: Lee is three years older, is listed as 25 pounds heavier, has a recent serious injury on his record, and is much more likely to see a collapse in his performance in the next few years.

 

We're looking at 2008. This year, BP agrees with you, but it's a very narrow margin. But if for no other reason than my belief that BP regresses to the mean too much regarding fielding in its projections*, I'll take Youkilis.

 

***

 

Morneau is projected by BP to be slightly worse for two years, then to overtake Youkilis:

 

[table] Year | Youkilis | Morneau

2008 | 5.2 | 5.1

2009 | 4.8 | 4.6

2010 | 4.1 | 4.5

2011 | 3.5 | 4.0

2012 | 2.6 | 3.6[/table]

 

Morneau wasn't stuck on a bench through 2005 as Youkilis was, and that gives Morneau an "unfair" PECOTA edge: Youkilis was certainly an MLB-level player in 2005, it was just that he was blocked by Mueller, Millar, Olerud, Petagine, and Ramon Vazquez. It's close, but given the slight two-year edge to Youkilis and that factor regarding 2005, I'll stick with Youk against Morneau, too.

 

***

 

But seriously, we're not too far off regarding our thoughts of where Youkilis would rank, and even if one takes the union of our two sets of "better" first basemen, Youk is still top ten in MLB. :thumbsup:

 

 

 

* Last year BP had Youkilis as being eight runs better than Lee; the projection has him only four runs better. I think that the difference between these two players defensively is more than one hit prevented a month, which is what BP postulates. The difference thus far is already two runs in Youk's favor after just one month. Leaving the annual difference at a mere eight runs--two singles a month, not one--gives Youkilis the 0.2 WARP edge, not Lee.

[BudLight]

you need proof of the inferiority of nl vs al pitching?

its painfully evident watching chris carpenter winning cy youngs in st louis while getting his smacked around like a 10.00 whore the nite before rents due while in toronto.

clemens was a cy young winner in houston but was average at best in ny.

randy johnson carl pavano and jarret wrights adventures in the bronx speak for themselves

its really not that difficult to see in my opinion.

 

Sean

 

 

While I can't argue that pitching in the AL is tougher than the NL for the most part (because of the DH), Carpenter's 2005 Cy Young was no fluke. Guys like Beckett, Peavy and Martinez didn't even finish in the top 6 for Cy Young voting that year and had good years.

[SCM33]

So you count five, while I count six...not too much difference.

 

***

 

Interesting that you declined on Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder and Carlos Pena, the three slow-moving sluggers I chose despite their challenges defensively at first base. I'm not too surprised regarding Carlos Pena: I look at his career and the MLEs for 2006 and I still consider him better, but I acknowledge that it's close. I really think that Howard and Fielder have enough power to edge out Youkilis, but I see your point, especially considering the NL-to-AL difference.

 

I'm still not swayed on Derrek Lee, though. I decided to check BP PECOTA for their thoughts:

 

[table] Year | Youkilis | Lee

2008 | 5.2 | 5.4

2009 | 4.8 | 3.9

2010 | 4.1 | 3.5

2011 | 3.5 | 2.4

2012 | 2.6 | 1.7[/table]

 

BP does like Lee better than Youkilis in 2008, although it's very close once home park effect, difference in the level of competition, and defense are considered. Every year thereafter Youkilis projects to do better than Lee: Lee is three years older, is listed as 25 pounds heavier, has a recent serious injury on his record, and is much more likely to see a collapse in his performance in the next few years.

 

We're looking at 2008. This year, BP agrees with you, but it's a very narrow margin. But if for no other reason than my belief that BP regresses to the mean too much regarding fielding in its projections*, I'll take Youkilis.

 

***

 

Morneau is projected by BP to be slightly worse for two years, then to overtake Youkilis:

 

[table] Year | Youkilis | Morneau

2008 | 5.2 | 5.1

2009 | 4.8 | 4.6

2010 | 4.1 | 4.5

2011 | 3.5 | 4.0

2012 | 2.6 | 3.6[/table]

 

Morneau wasn't stuck on a bench through 2005 as Youkilis was, and that gives Morneau an "unfair" PECOTA edge: Youkilis was certainly an MLB-level player in 2005, it was just that he was blocked by Mueller, Millar, Olerud, Petagine, and Ramon Vazquez. It's close, but given the slight two-year edge to Youkilis and that factor regarding 2005, I'll stick with Youk against Morneau, too.

 

***

 

But seriously, we're not too far off regarding our thoughts of where Youkilis would rank, and even if one takes the union of our two sets of "better" first basemen, Youk is still top ten in MLB. :thumbsup:

 

 

 

* Last year BP had Youkilis as being eight runs better than Lee; the projection has him only four runs better. I think that the difference between these two players defensively is more than one hit prevented a month, which is what BP postulates. The difference thus far is already two runs in Youk's favor after just one month. Leaving the annual difference at a mere eight runs--two singles a month, not one--gives Youkilis the 0.2 WARP edge, not Lee.

 

 

We were close, but the difference is that you back it up wit numbers, and I back it up with what I see........I think that this does show that numbers arent everything!! :thumbsup:

 

In all honesty though, a balance between the two makes for a good argument, I like looking at numbers as much as you do....but I also rely on what I am actually seeing on the field (Mark Bellhorn says hello, I hated him hahah).

[CrespoBlows]

We were close' date=' but the difference is that you back it up wit numbers, and I back it up with what I see........I think that this does show that numbers arent everything!! :thumbsup: [/quote']

 

What the f***? That's probably the reason why you're wrong 95% of the time.

 

I watch, then verify. You watch, don't verify, then tell everyone what you think, exposing yourself as an idiot.

 

In all honesty though, a balance between the two makes for a good argument, I like looking at numbers as much as you do....but I also rely on what I am actually seeing on the field (Mark Bellhorn says hello, I hated him hahah).

 

Orly? LOL

[rgmfick]

Youk has worked very hard to make himself into an accomplished Major Leaguer. He is talented at 3B and 1B which adds to his value. Although he does not have great speed on the bases nor the typical power of most corner infielders, Youk does a great job. The best test of his value would be established by taking a survey among his teammates who I bet, without exception, are very comfortable and reliant on Youk.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Youk has worked very hard to make himself into an accomplished Major Leaguer. He is talented at 3B and 1B which adds to his value. Although he does not have great speed on the bases nor the typical power of most corner infielders' date=' Youk does a great job.[/quote']

 

Absolutely. Welcome to Talksox!

 

The best test of his value would be established by taking a survey among his teammates who I bet, without exception, are very comfortable and reliant on Youk.

 

Nah. Teammates are notorious liars. Look at Jose Canseco--he said that Roger Clemens was faithful to his wife.

 

Seriously, while one might consider teammates' opinions, unless there were some way of norming the surveys and unless the data were available across MLB, a survey would just confuse things.

[SCM33]

What the f***? That's probably the reason why you're wrong 95% of the time.

 

I watch, then verify. You watch, don't verify, then tell everyone what you think, exposing yourself as an idiot.

 

 

 

Orly? LOL

 

I didnt know there were statistics that followed how often a username is wrong on a topic....or maybe thats just you keeping score because you have nothing else to do.

 

Here is another fact I am DEFINITELY wrong about...you like woman.

 

ORLY LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

 

Ill say it again, dont understand why here....people rescind to name calling rather than just having a discussion about a team which the board is named after. just about everyone here is a RedSox fan in one fashion or another (besides the NYY fans). Instead of insulting someone who roots for the same team you do, why not just counter the argument without the immature, pathetic insults?....maybe its just the young age of the board. I guess keyboard trash talking is the new thing of the younger generation.

[CrespoBlows]

I didnt know there were statistics that followed how often a username is wrong on a topic....or maybe thats just you keeping score because you have nothing else to do.

 

Here is another fact I am DEFINITELY wrong about...you like woman.

 

ORLY LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

 

Wow. Do you have to resort to spitting out overused, cliche "jokes?"

 

Here's a fact that I am definitely right about. You are not funny.

 

Ill say it again, dont understand why here....people rescind to name calling rather than just having a discussion about a team which the board is named after. just about everyone here is a RedSox fan in one fashion or another (besides the NYY fans). Instead of insulting someone who roots for the same team you do, why not just counter the argument without the immature, pathetic insults?....maybe its just the young age of the board. I guess keyboard trash talking is the new thing of the younger generation.

 

Dude, what you wrote was the most unintentional arrogant thing I've ever read. "I back it up with what I see, because I don't need numbers, and we're pretty close!!!!" :thumbsup: I'm so f***ing sick of people who think they are above concrete evidence. Bill Plaschke thinks his eyes are superior to what actually is happening. You don't want to be Bill Plaschke, do you?

 

I felt compelled to call you out, because you are guilty of incorrectly claiming things, that could be avoided had you spent one minute looking it up.

[rician blast]

Krist, everyone just fkn relax.

 

Hey, did ya hear about the butcher's wife who backed into the meat grinder?

 

disaster (dis-assed-her)

[BoSox21]

Hey, did ya hear about the butcher's wife who backed into the meat grinder?

 

disaster (dis-assed-her)

 

...