Youkilis - Where does he rank?

[TheKilo]

I brought this up in the GT, but where would you rank Kevin Youkilis right now in the entire MLB?

 

Offense and defense included, I think you can make the case he is a top 20 position player in all of baseball.

 

Think about it - can you name 20 guys you'd want over him, factoring in offense and defense?

[a700hitter]

His versatility is a big plus. He plays two positions with Gold Glove quality. He is an absolute offensive monster in April and May, but he is yet to break .290 or hit 20 HRs. He does K alot, and he is on the slow side on the bases. I think he is a perfect fit for the Sox, but i would not rank him as a top 20 guy.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Think about it - can you name 20 guys you'd want over him' date=' factoring in offense and defense?[/quote']

 

Yes. Roughly 40 position players, FWIW. :dunno:

[Youk Of The Nation]

Top 20 in all of Baseball? Ehh...I dont think so. Top 40 maybe, definitely Top 50.

[26 to 6]

He's an outstanding player, but I wouldnt say top 20. Easily top 50, possibly top 40.

 

I think I would be more favorable towards him if he shaved that ugly ass beard.

http://www.mlb.com/images/2004/05/15/XG6K9Zpf.jpg

Here is Youk in 2004 clean-shaven and with some hair.

 

http://farm1.static.flickr.com/183/486949646_d8c2b7de0f.jpg

Here's Youk as we know him now, with no hair and a beard.

 

http://www.survivinggrady.com/uploaded_images/youkfing-787801.jpg

Here's Youk with neither hair nor a beard!

 

 

completely irrelevant, but hey, I get bored. I also think it's interesting how one's appearance can dictate the way you look at them. Not that it has anything to do with how he plays on the field, but back when he came up he was one of the few Sox I liked watching because of how gritty and hard he played. When he cut off that hair and grew that beard I just kinda thought of him as an *******, I think it sort of gives him an arrogant demeanor.

 

Nevertheless, hair or no hair; beard or no beard, he is a hell of a player.

[ORS]

Youk appears to have premature male pattern baldness going on. I don't blame him for the shaved look, and I expect Pedroia will follow suit in the near future.

[VA Sox Fan]

You guys are gay...

 

I've never liked his beard but he's done well since growing it. Bald heads are cool, IMO.

[Thumper]

Youk's face forest has inspiried me to follow in his footsteps. For I too since last season have had my head shaved and have grown a face forest of my own, in honor of Youk.

[VA Sox Fan]

Youk's face forest has inspiried me to follow in his footsteps. For I too since last season have had my head shaved and have grown a face forest of my own' date=' in honor of Youk.[/quote']

 

 

:thumbsup:

[26 to 6]

http://us.st11.yimg.com/us.st.yimg.com/I/gravitygraffix_1992_18773394

 

hahaha

Sorry, after seeing this picture I couldn't resist.

[TheKilo]

I'd like to see a list of the 40 guys you'd take before him, JHB.

 

I bet you could make a case.

[Youk Of The Nation]

Pujols, Holliday, Ordonez, ARod, Manny, Fielder, Utley, Howard, Braun, Wells, Rios, Morneau, Hafner, VMart, Konerko, Crede, Dye, Ichiro, Young, Guerrero, Hunter, Anderson, Tulowitzki, Atkins, Hawpe, Derrek Lee, Hanley Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez, Tiexeira, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Carlos Guillen, Chipper Jones, Burrell, Rollins, Figgins, Justin Upton, Carlos Pena, Sizemore.

[TheKilo]

Pujols' date=' Holliday, Ordonez, ARod, Manny, Fielder, Utley, Howard, [i']Braun[/i], Wells, Rios, Morneau, Hafner, VMart, Konerko, Crede, Dye, Ichiro, Young, Guerrero, Hunter, Anderson, Tulowitzki, Atkins, Hawpe, Derrek Lee, Hanley Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez, Tiexeira, Wright, Beltran, Delgado, Carlos Guillen, Chipper Jones, Burrell, Rollins, Figgins, Justin Upton, Carlos Pena, Sizemore.

 

I think you can make the case that Youkilis is better than any of the bolded names, whether it be for defensive prowess or the fact that some names on this list are still largely unproven.

[BoSox21]

where is Ortiz on that list btw?

[castigs850]

jose reyes, brian roberts, carl crawford, joe maurer, and soriano arnt on there either

[26 to 6]

nor is Jeter.

 

Regardless of who is or isn't on that list, nothing you say Kilo is going to change MY mind about where Youk ranks among all active position players. I gave him his due props, but I'm not going to anoint him MVP, or HOF worthy just yet.

[BoSox21]

I love Youk and I understand how he is a big part of what makes the Sox lineup tick but it's a tough argument to put him in the top 20 position players overall, no matter how much emphasis you put on defense.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I'd like to see a list of the 40 guys you'd take before him, JHB.

 

I bet you could make a case.

 

Maybe on a few of them...in descending order, salary considerations, future potential, and contract length aside, 45 names:

 

Albert Pujols

David Wright

Alex Rodriguez

Hanley Ramirez

Miguel Cabrera

David Ortiz

Ryan Zimmerman

Chipper Jones

Chase Utley

Carlos Beltran

Jose Reyes

Jimmy Rollins

Joe Mauer

Ryan Braun

Grady Sizemore

Mark Teixeira

Prince Fielder

Evan Longoria

Curtis Granderson

Aramis Ramirez

Carlos Guillen

Lance Berkman

Brian Roberts

Carlos Pena

Troy Tulowitzki

Travis Hafner

Jorge Posada

Russell Martin

Ryan Howard

Hunter Pence

Matt Holliday

Placido Polanco

Victor Martinez

Derek Jeter

Vladimir Guerrero

Dustin Pedroia

Nick Swisher

Jim Thome

B.J. Upton

Michael Young

Manny Ramirez

Brian McCann

Ichiro Suzuki

Jacoby Ellsbury

Khalil Greene

[TheKilo]

nor is Jeter.

 

Regardless of who is or isn't on that list, nothing you say Kilo is going to change MY mind about where Youk ranks among all active position players. I gave him his due props, but I'm not going to anoint him MVP, or HOF worthy just yet.

 

I'm not trying to convince you. Put the tinfoil hat away.

[TheKilo]

Maybe on a few of them...in descending order, salary considerations, future potential, and contract length aside, 45 names:

 

Albert Pujols

David Wright

Alex Rodriguez

Hanley Ramirez

Miguel Cabrera

David Ortiz

Ryan Zimmerman

Chipper Jones

Chase Utley

Carlos Beltran

Jose Reyes

Jimmy Rollins

Joe Mauer

Ryan Braun

Grady Sizemore

Mark Teixeira

Prince Fielder

Evan Longoria

Curtis Granderson

Aramis Ramirez

Carlos Guillen

Lance Berkman

Brian Roberts

Carlos Pena

Troy Tulowitzki

Travis Hafner

Jorge Posada

Russell Martin

Ryan Howard

Hunter Pence

Matt Holliday

Placido Polanco

Victor Martinez

Derek Jeter

Vladimir Guerrero

Dustin Pedroia

Nick Swisher

Jim Thome

B.J. Upton

Michael Young

Manny Ramirez

Brian McCann

Ichiro Suzuki

Jacoby Ellsbury

Khalil Greene

 

"Future Potential" seems to be an iffy way of classifying things.

 

Maybe top 20 is too high, though.

[Jayhawk Bill]

"Future Potential" seems to be an iffy way of classifying things.

 

Maybe top 20 is too high, though.

 

I was vague. I posted, deleting words for clarity, "In...order...future potential...aside, 45 names." It wasn't based upon future potential--it was based upon current season likely production relative to one's peers at his position.

 

You can certainly challenge a few of them: yes, I'd take Evan Longoria over Kevin Youkilis right now, but others would consider that a huge leap of faith both in Longoria and in MLE's. Khalil Greene benefits greatly from park effects and from playing shortstop in my estimations. Troy Tulowitzki is tanking this year--I'm counting on that being a fluke. (The same for Big Papi!) Ryan Braun can't field, but he can hit so well that I still rank him over Youkilis. But there are a lot of those 45 players that I wouldn't have to defend, either.

 

Still, you know, I spent a little bit of time on this...a guy in the top 45 players in all of MLB is a guy on the cusp of making his All Star Team were the selection system fair. That's a very good player.

 

I see Kevin Youkilis as the modern-day Ferris Fain. For those too young to remember Fain, here's his BR page:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/fainfe01.shtml

 

Fain hit .290/.424/.396 over his nine-year career, making five All Star teams and placing as high as 6th in MVP voting twice. His peak came late, from ages 29 to 31. Despite his making the All Star team at ages 32 and 33, he declined swiftly and he was out of MLB at age 35. That wouldn't happen today: he had a .455 OBP in limited playing time at age 34, and his MiLB batting line of .252/.412/.293 at age 35 suggests that he had one more good year, and an AL team would've picked him up as a DH for certain today despite those stats. Still, that .293 SLG in MiLB suggests that, even today, he would've retired after age 35, just one year later than he actually did.

 

That's what I see for Kevin Youkilis: near All Star performance through his early thirties, followed by a puzzlingly swift decline in his mid-30's.

[SCM33]

I was vague. I posted, deleting words for clarity, "In...order...future potential...aside, 45 names." It wasn't based upon future potential--it was based upon current season likely production relative to one's peers at his position.

 

You can certainly challenge a few of them: yes, I'd take Evan Longoria over Kevin Youkilis right now, but others would consider that a huge leap of faith both in Longoria and in MLE's. Khalil Greene benefits greatly from park effects and from playing shortstop in my estimations. Troy Tulowitzki is tanking this year--I'm counting on that being a fluke. (The same for Big Papi!) Ryan Braun can't field, but he can hit so well that I still rank him over Youkilis. But there are a lot of those 45 players that I wouldn't have to defend, either.

 

Still, you know, I spent a little bit of time on this...a guy in the top 45 players in all of MLB is a guy on the cusp of making his All Star Team were the selection system fair. That's a very good player.

 

I see Kevin Youkilis as the modern-day Ferris Fain. For those too young to remember Fain, here's his BR page:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/fainfe01.shtml

 

Fain hit .290/.424/.396 over his nine-year career, making five All Star teams and placing as high as 6th in MVP voting twice. His peak came late, from ages 29 to 31. Despite his making the All Star team at ages 32 and 33, he declined swiftly and he was out of MLB at age 35. That wouldn't happen today: he had a .455 OBP in limited playing time at age 34, and his MiLB batting line of .252/.412/.293 at age 35 suggests that he had one more good year, and an AL team would've picked him up as a DH for certain today despite those stats. Still, that .293 SLG in MiLB suggests that, even today, he would've retired after age 35, just one year later than he actually did.

 

That's what I see for Kevin Youkilis: near All Star performance through his early thirties, followed by a puzzlingly swift decline in his mid-30's.

 

 

I think thats a bad comparison. Youk has better power numbers. I see him as a a perennial borderline/ fringe all star player like you do....but I think he is alot better than fain.

 

I see the OB% numbers are similar, but they play in completely different eras.

 

Defensively, he does not compare. He may not be in the top 50, but he is certainly better than Fain.

 

I think a better comparison offensively in modern day baseball is John Kruk.

 

Kruk 162 game average:

158H 14HR 80 RBI BA.300 .397OB 85BB 446.SLG

 

Youk 162 game average:

157H 15HR 80RBI BA.284 .386OB 85BB 441SLG

[Jayhawk Bill]

I think thats a bad comparison.

 

"Bad" is such a strong word...

 

Youk has better power numbers. I see him as a a perennial borderline/ fringe all star player like you do....but I think he is alot better than fain.

 

I see the OB% numbers are similar, but they play in completely different eras.

 

Defensively, he does not compare. He may not be in the top 50, but he is certainly better than Fain.

 

I think a better comparison offensively in modern day baseball is John Kruk.

 

Kruk 162 game average:

158H 14HR 80 RBI BA.300 .397OB 85BB 446.SLG

 

Youk 162 game average:

157H 15HR 80RBI BA.284 .386OB 85BB 441SLG

 

Great match on rate stats!

 

Not coincidentally, John Kruk is the top Baseball Reference comparable for Youk through age 28, too. The challenge is that the pattern of reaching those rate stats differed for the two players. Youkilis was a bench player on the Pawtucket shuttle at ages 25 and 26, achieving most of his value (about 77%) in his two full-time years at ages 27 and 28. Kruk was on an MLB roster full-time for all four years (just 28 AAA at bats), but he never got over 447 MLB at bats a season those years because he was platooned--he didn't hit LHP well. As a full-time player Youk was worth 6.2 and 7.5 wins per year his two full-time years; Kruk was worth 3.1 to 6.4 wins his four full-time years, with only one year over 4.8 wins (WARP3). Also, Kruk had a cumulative -5 FRAA through age 28; Youkilis had a cumulative +26 FRAA. Youkilis was a better player than Kruk.

 

Fain had three full-time seasons up through age 28. His value was 5.4 to 6.7 wins per year. His cumulative FRAA was +9. Fain didn't field or slug quite as well as Youks; his OBP was better, though, and he'd accumulated 344 walks through age 28 while Youks had only 215.

 

Fain's value is closer to that of Kevin Youkilis, season by season, and they are similar in skill sets. Kruk's rate stats closely matched Youkilis's, but Kruk couldn't field and he sat down versus left-handed pitchers.

 

I'll stick with Fain as a GOOD comparable. Kruk is, IMO, a good but a lesser comparable.

 

"Good but lesser" being, well, not so strong words...

[jacksonianmarch]

I think you can make the case that Youkilis is better than any of the bolded names' date=' whether it be for defensive prowess or the fact that some names on this list are still largely unproven.[/quote']

 

youkilis better than Chipper, cmon now

[Youk Of The Nation]

jose reyes' date=' brian roberts, carl crawford, joe maurer, and soriano arnt on there either[/quote']

 

I only listed the first 40 that popped into my head, I didnt include Ortiz because I only listed position players.

[SCM33]

Great match on rate stats!

 

Not coincidentally, John Kruk is the top Baseball Reference comparable for Youk through age 28, too.

 

I cant take credit for it, I actually went there, and looked at the players that were most similar to see if Fain was there......then I browsed through players they suggested were most similar and I was surprised at how close Kruk was.

 

BTW, some of those players they list as "similar" really arent either. Jeremy Giambi? Chris Singleton? Alex Ochoa? Maybe similar for 1 year.....only Kruk really compares for multiple seasons, and career averages.

[Youk Of The Nation]

JHB, Im not trying to be difficult, but can you give me some stats or something justifying you taking Posada, a 40-something year old catcher with a very near future as a sore DH, over Youk?

[castigs850]

I only listed the first 40 that popped into my head' date=' I didnt include Ortiz because I only listed position players.[/quote']

 

i realized that, it was more to point out that there are even more players that should be on that list over youk

[SCM33]

JHB' date=' Im not trying to be difficult, but can you give me some stats or something justifying you taking Posada, a 40-something year old catcher with a very near future as a sore DH, over Youk?[/quote']

 

Posada had a better year last year, and the year before that, and the year before that. Hes also having a good beginning to this year. Youk may overtake him this year, but Posada has been the better player in a more strenuous position ©.

 

EDIT: Posada is only 36.

[Jayhawk Bill]

JHB' date=' Im not trying to be difficult, but can you give me some stats or something justifying you taking Posada, a 40-something year old catcher with a very near future as a sore DH, over Youk?[/quote']

 

Posada had a better year last year, and the year before that, and the year before that. Hes also having a good beginning to this year. Youk may overtake him this year, but Posada has been the better player in a more strenuous position ©.

 

EDIT: Posada is only 36.

 

Let's look at just the past three seasons, WARP, source PECOTA cards:

 

[table]Year | Posada | Youkilis

2005 | 5.2 | 3.2*

2006 | 7.5 | 5.2

2007 | 8.4 | 6.7 [/table]

 

* Including MLE value of AAA stats

 

Posada is 36, and I bet that he'll decline faster, but he was WAY more valuable the past three years running. PECOTA shows Posada and Youk at equivalent value in 2009, with Youkilis better thereafter and Posada better in 2008. Right now 2008 looks like a toss-up, but Youkilis is hot and Posada's been playing hurt, too, so things may change by July or August.

 

Good question, especially given Posada's rocky start. Thanks!