Bullpen Concerns

[Jayhawk Bill]

Yeah well' date=' for some reason I sometimes associate people's avatars with what they actually look like, and well...yeah.[/quote']

 

Yeah, I chose my avatar because of the personal resemblance.

[YAZMAN]

My god ORS' date=' no matter how good of a poster you are, I can't take you seriously with that avatar.[/quote']

 

Franks and beans, franks and beans, franks and beans.....

 

 

Relax, Woogie.

[a700hitter]

Just look at Rasner. Thing is' date=' he was picked up on waivers (speaking of which, they should do everything they can to move him now while he looks decent before the other shoe drops - and it will).[/quote']I think I heard a shoe drop in Oakland tonight.

[Cocos Disciples]

Yeah' date=' I chose my avatar because of the personal resemblance.[/quote']

 

Well, obviously.

 

I am two men.

[Soxfan1]

I'm Superman and Jack Bauer.

[rician blast]

Franks and beans, franks and beans, franks and beans.....

 

 

Relax, Woogie.

 

Pat Healy: Really, it's only a side thing for my true passion.

Mary: And what's that?

Pat Healy: I work with retards.

Mary: Isn't that a little politically incorrect?

Pat Healy: Yeah, maybe, but hell, no one's gonna tell me who I can and can't work with.

 

"Those goofy bastards are about the best thing I've got going."

[jacksonianmarch]

I think I heard a shoe drop in Oakland tonight.

 

I dont think anyone thought Rasner would be a sub 3 era guy. I didnt. But I do think that he should be a 4-4.5 ERA guy who can give innings. He throws strikes with 4 pitches and can locate to all 4 quadrants of the plate. nothing plus, so he will have games where the other team hits him hard. But he should be good enough to replace what we were expecting from Kennedy

[TheKilo]

I dont think anyone thought Rasner would be a sub 3 era guy. I didnt. But I do think that he should be a 4-4.5 ERA guy who can give innings. He throws strikes with 4 pitches and can locate to all 4 quadrants of the plate. nothing plus' date=' so he will have games where the other team hits him hard. But he should be good enough to replace what we were expecting from Kennedy[/quote']

 

I thought Kennedy was the second coming?

[ORS]

Without Ortiz in the lineup' date=' the offense will have big problems in those games that Crisp plays.[/quote']

What I feared is that this is what we'd see while Papi recovers. Fortunately, the offense hasn't struggled because JD Drew decided to become one of the best hitters in the AL. How long will that last? Crisp is, yet again, horrible with a .301 OBP, with -4.9 Batting Runs compared to average with playing time in 52/68 games. Despite them winning games at a good clip w/o Ortiz, I think they need to bring Carter up to DH.

 

The question becomes, what kind of line does Carter need to put up to offset the difference between Manny and Jacoby in LF? Ellsbury is about 12 runs better per 100 games by Rate2 (30 adjusted games this year and last for Jacoby, 46 adjusted games for Manny). Not the best stat, but it's the easiest runs based metric to quickly access. If you figure Ortiz is out for another 33 games (a convenient 1/3), then the defense lost is worth 4 runs.

 

Crisp's -5 Batting Runs were compiled in 52 games. Over 33 games, that would be about -3. So, Carter would have to produce more than 1 Batting Run over 33 games. Every team has played an amount of games in the mid-60's, so double it. Now, who over the course of this season has produced 2 Batting Runs having played 60+ games? I'll limit the findings to guys with no steals, as we know Carter won't be doing that.

 

Garko - 1.6 - 0 SB - .265/.355.400

Millar - 1.2 - 0 SB - .249/.332/.422

Hannahan - 1.4 - 1 SB - .235/.345/.350

 

(They are harder to find than I thought). Can Carter beat that? My money says "yes".

[jacksonianmarch]

I wasnt expecting Kennedy to come out and be the second coming in his first yr. I do think Kennedy will be a solid pitcher, but I expected #5 type numbers this yr.

[TheKilo]

I don't have time to dig through all of the posts but I'm fairly confident this isn't the case.

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont think Kennedy's ceiling is as a #5. I think his ceiling can be as high as a #2. But for 2008, I expected #5 type numbers. I did not expect him to totally lose his control.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I dont think Kennedy's ceiling is as a #5. I think his ceiling can be as high as a #2. But for 2008' date=' I expected #5 type numbers. I did not expect him to totally lose his control.[/quote']

 

Ian Kennedy is already 23.5 years old, he's posted an 0-3 record and a 7.41 ERA in 9 games this season, he only throws about 92 mph, and you're projecting him as a future number two starter?

 

BP 2007 Annual:

 

The Yankees took Ian Kennedy with their first-round draft pick in 2006. He throws only 88 to 92, but is said to have a good feel for pitching. The Yankees liked him because the USC product is already close to his (low) ceiling.

 

There's no room for growth. Ian Kennedy's swift decline coincided with his having to face MLB batters in games where umpires knew that the Pitch f/x logs were being watched. Kennedy can be effective if the umpire awards him called strikes located over six inches off the outside corner. If he can't get that, he's trash.

[TheKilo]

Owned.

[jacksonianmarch]

Ian Kennedy is already 23.5 years old, he's posted an 0-3 record and a 7.41 ERA in 9 games this season, he only throws about 92 mph, and you're projecting him as a future number two starter?

 

BP 2007 Annual:

 

 

 

There's no room for growth. Ian Kennedy's swift decline coincided with his having to face MLB batters in games where umpires knew that the Pitch f/x logs were being watched. Kennedy can be effective if the umpire awards him called strikes located over six inches off the outside corner. If he can't get that, he's trash.

 

So 9 games is enough to throw him under the bus? For a stat oriented guy, that sentence makes no sense. Hypocrite much?

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I dont think Kennedy's ceiling is as a #5. I think his ceiling can be as high as a #2. But for 2008' date=' I expected #5 type numbers. I did not expect him to totally lose his control.[/quote']

 

I don't completely understand rating a guy on rotation ceiling. What is a #2 starter supposed to produce? The #2 starter varies based on the team. A #2 starter on the Yankees isn't saying a lot since the Yankee rotation has been nothing to get excited about over the past several years.

 

Unless the Yankee offense scored 7 runs in every Ian Kennedy start I see him being a below .500 pitcher. He gives up more hits than innings pitched and walks as many as he Ks. Thats a recipe for disaster and since he doesn't have a "out-pitch" or overpower hitters at the plate...what does he turn to? Perhaps if he gained a considerable amount of experience he could learn to get hitters out based on knowledge but the Yankees won't put up with him that long....in fact they may have already ruined him.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I don't completely understand rating a guy on rotation ceiling. What is a #2 starter supposed to produce?

 

I'd suggest that a number two starter pitches fewer innings than a number one starter and more than a number three starter.

 

Using that definition, I quickly checked (source THT) the 15th through 28th-ranked AL pitchers in IP for 2007. Here are the median stats:

 

W-L: 14.5 - 10

ERA: 4.24

SO: 124

BB: 63

IP: 197.5

GS: 31

 

OK...a number two starter might be a guy with a 14-10 record in 30 starts, an ERA a bit over 4.00, a 2:1 K/BB ratio in MLB, who approaches 200 IP.

 

Ian Kennedy isn't near that level today. I cited one report suggesting that he's near his ceiling--I've read others. I also know from reading Pitch f/x logs that he struggles unless he's given the outside pitch, especially with respect to lefties.

 

Some might consider the nine-game 2008 sample too small to assess that Ian Kennedy won't reach this level. I don't. My reasons are these:

 

1) His velocity is low for a young pitcher, maxing at about 92 mph. Such pitchers can succeed, but there are few who do. Greg Maddux was the primary exception, and it's now considered that his being given an expanded strike zone by most MLB umpires was critical to his success. With Pitch f/x in every ballpark, preferential strike zones are becoming things of the past.

 

2) If one checks the xFIP of Ian Kennedy's work in 2007, it wasn't much different from his xFIP in 2008.

 

[table] Season | ERA | xFIP

2007 | 1.89 | 5.15

2008 | 7.41 | 5.86 [/table]

 

The "real" Ian Kennedy is probably around that 5.86 xFIP, which is what he's getting with a fair strike zone in most of his games. That would leave his ERA in the high fives, much worse than the norm for AL second starters. If Kennedy had room to grow, things would be different, but pitchers as a rule peak earlier than position players, and Kennedy in particular appears to have hit his ceiling.

[ksushi]

Reading through this thread out of boredom... felt like adding a useless tidbit.

 

 

Bowden' date=' Masterson, Lowrie, then what? Hughes, Kennedy, Horne, McCutchen, Miranda, Gardner, then what? [/quote']

 

More like Buchholz, Bowden, Masterson, Lowrie, then Reddick, Anderson, and Carter. That is defintely neither here nor there, I just felt, for whatever reason, like chiming that in.

 

ORS, how do you keep great tabs on the minor leagues? Where you get yo' info, mang?

[jacksonianmarch]

I was pointing at the AAA talent/ MLB talent. I forgot Buchholz, sorry.

[ksushi]

It was a prospect run off, and when you compare two farm systems, gotta throw in the whole package. Reddick, Anderson, and Carter are guys with realistic chances to contribute to a major league team in due time. They deserve mention. I would even say Felix Doubront deserves mention, but I left him out because he hasn't had any kind of breakthrough anything.

 

I wish I knew as much about NYY's system.

[jacksonianmarch]

The yankees biggest prospects are deeper in the system, and there are others I forgot to mention

 

AAA- Robertson and Cox

AA- Kontos, Melancon, Cervelli, Tabata, Jackson

A+- Sublett, Pope, McCallister, Whelan, Garcia

A- Montero, Almonte, Laird, Romine, Angelini, Snyder, Suttle, Betances, Heredia

 

Then the injured guys like Brackman and Sanchez

 

Last season's INTL signees DeLeon and Vizcaino as well as Mexican signee Banuelos.

 

Then this draft which is very solid IMO, as is the sox draft. If a team wishes to find long range prospects, we have them.

[Gom]

Saying Kennedy throws 92 is a godsend. He's more like 88-89.

[jacksonianmarch]

In some games yes. Against tampa he was regularly hitting 91-92. Hence why I give a range.

[a700hitter]

In some games yes. Against tampa he was regularly hitting 91-92. Hence why I give a range.

Kennedy is sort of like the Corvair of Major League Pitchers. He's unsafe (i.e. he sucks) at any speed.

[jacksonianmarch]

he's made what, 12 MLB starts, he's 23 and he already sucks?

[a700hitter]

he's made what' date=' 12 MLB starts, he's 23 and he already sucks?[/quote']He's somewhere between sucks and Jeff Suppan.

[Mr Crunchy]

at what point does he go from being a new face to a guy who cant get it done?

not even remote flashes of dominance here,nothing but failure and soft serve ********

[Jayhawk Bill]

The average speed of Ian Kennedy's pitches was 86.6 mph last year. The average speed of his fastball was 91.0 mph.

 

Here's a list of 2007 MLB starting RHP Kennedy's size (six feet tall or less) whose aggregate pitch velocity was under 90 mph last year*:

 

[table]Name | Avg Speed

Elmer Dessens | 87.4

Ian Kennedy | 86.6

Tim Redding | 85.9

Greg Maddux | 85.1

Woody Williams | 84.2

Yusmeiro Petit | 83.8

Josh Fogg | 83.7[/table]

 

This isn't exactly a list of superstar pitchers. How did Kennedy post such a low ERA?

 

1) His xFIP was over 5.00...he got lucky.

 

2) He had, by my count, 33 pitches outside the strike zone that were called strikes, 12% of all of his pitches thrown. He had balls missing on either side by as much as 7" called as strikes. He had four gifted strikes for every strike taken away by umpires' calls.

 

 

 

 

* Pitch f/x data pulled on September 1, 2007 for all pitchers except Kennedy.

[YAZMAN]

In some games yes. Against tampa he was regularly hitting 91-92. Hence why I give a range.

 

He might hit 92...

 

 

...with a gale wind blowing in from dead center.

[ksushi]

In jacko's defense, if I had been a Yankee fan and Lester was a yankee, my unceasing love for him would have been ripped apart all over this board when he first came up. Similar to Lester's early goings, Kennedy looks like he sucks. Granted, Lester was of much better pedigree and had won awards such as "Eastern League Pitcher of the Year" and what not, but Lester looked equally bad and look how that turned out. He is one of the better pitchers in the AL right now.

 

That said, if I get the motivation, I'm going to find the thread I remember perusing where Jacko said a bunch of happy things about Kennedy that now look funny. You know I have to, dude. No offense. If you had made good on our bet, I wouldn't be so happy to do so.