PECOTA projects Yanks win the East

[Gom]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?&affiliate=3

 

My opinion? Right now, the Yanks win the division because Schilling is hurt.

 

Funny, but I completely agree with Schilling's comment last season. The Yankees and Red Sox are so close, it will be the team that gets the most starts out if their starters that wins the division.

 

Who's going to make more starts?

 

Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Buchholz, Lester

or

Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, Kennedy

 

Whoever has more starts wins the division. I honestly think it's that simple.

 

P.S. Can anyone post the PECOTA results here?

[BSN07]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/index.php?&affiliate=3

 

My opinion? Right now, the Yanks win the division because Schilling is hurt.

 

Funny, but I completely agree with Schilling's comment last season. The Yankees and Red Sox are so close, it will be the team that gets the most starts out if their starters that wins the division.

 

Who's going to make more starts?

 

Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Buchholz, Lester

or

Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, Kennedy

 

Whoever has more starts wins the division. I honestly think it's that simple.

 

P.S. Can anyone post the PECOTA results here?

 

 

 

I think Beckett, Matsuzaka, Lester, Buchholz, and Wakefield make more starts then the Yankees group.

 

Mussina is an injury or a few ineffective starts from being done. Hughes has not proven he can stay healthy, Kennedy has proven nothing much at the big league level.

 

Wang and Pettitte are solid and should provide 200 inning a piece if healthy.

 

Beckett, Matsuzaka, and Wakefield will provide 200 innings if healthy.

 

And besides Gom, didn't you pick the Sox to only win like 85 games or something and miss the playoffs last yr?

 

The Sox and Yanks will fight for the division every yr. Its just how it is. And any given yr either one could win it. Whoever stays more healthy and gets production from there players will win the division.... Very plan and simple..... But if we are predicting here I say the Sox win the division by 6 games over Toronto, with the Yanks in 7.5 games out. I think the Yanks starts out slow like normal, but I think this might be the year they can't pull themselves back together in time. Every yr it seems there beginning of the season slump last a little longer then before. But hey they could win it by 10 games for all I know.

 

 

Go Sox 08!

[Gom]

Yes I did. Considering you finished in third place the year before, it wasn't a bad call. There isn't a person here who was claiming Beckett was Cy Young material before last season began.

 

So what you're saying....is that in an off-season in which neither team did anything at all...the Sox, with their second/third most effective pitcher effectively done for at least half the season, if not for the whole year....have gained 5.5 games on the Yankees? Toronto, which did nothing either, gained 12.5 games on the Yankees?

 

I love spring training.

 

Truth is, the Yankees will probably go into the season better than last year. We started Carl Pavano on opening day. True, we don't have anything close to Hughes/Kennedy/Chamberlain waiting in the wings, but think about who we did have last year.

 

Last year, we had the following pitchers start games for us:

 

Igawa

Tyler Clippard

Matt DeSalvo

Darrell Rasner

Sean Henn

Jeff Karstens

Carl Pavano

Chase Wright

 

Total starts by these future Hall Of Famers: 39

 

We still won 94 games.

 

The Yanks will end up around 96-100 wins. Good enough to make the playoffs. Probably enough to win the division.

[BSN07]

Yes I did. Considering you finished in third place the year before' date=' it wasn't a bad call. [b']There isn't a person here who was claiming Beckett was Cy Young material before last season began.[/b]

.

 

Ummm if you look up my predictions on Beckett last yr, I was pretty close. I said 18 wins and top 3 in Cy Young. He had 20 wins and was 2nd in Cy Young.

 

But like I said it could go really either way. I'm just predicting this might be the yr the Yanks can't rebound from a slow April like they have in yrs passed.

[Gom]

Ummm if you look up my predictions on Beckett last yr, I was pretty close. I said 18 wins and top 3 in Cy Young. He had 20 wins and was 2nd in Cy Young.

 

But like I said it could go really either way. I'm just predicting this might be the yr the Yanks can't rebound from a slow April like they have in yrs passed.

Who's to say they'll have another slow start? Who's to say the Red Sox don't? Or both? Or neither?

[BSN07]

Who's to say they'll have another slow start? Who's to say the Red Sox don't? Or both? Or neither?

 

Exactly:thumbsup:

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont think this yankee team will start slow out of the gate, mostly because of the youth infusion in the rotation. Most older pitching staffs start out slow and pick up steam as the season goes along. While the younger staffs blow their load early. We'll have to see how we progress, but I'd expect us to be quick out of the gate and potentially fall back to the pack (depending on the Joba situation of course.)

[Gom]

Ummm if you look up my predictions on Beckett last yr, I was pretty close. I said 18 wins and top 3 in Cy Young. He had 20 wins and was 2nd in Cy Young.

 

But like I said it could go really either way. I'm just predicting this might be the yr the Yanks can't rebound from a slow April like they have in yrs passed.

Well then, I give you credit. That's like me saying that Hughes will be in the top 3 in the Cy Young, and win 20 games this year.

[Gom]

What I'm saying it is that the loss of Schilling puts the Red Sox behind the Yankees at this point.

[MANNYHOF24]

What I'm saying it is that the loss of Schilling puts the Red Sox behind the Yankees at this point.

 

I think that Buchholz will out produce what Schilling would have done this year anyway. Thats just my opinion. Also I think that DiceK is going to have a much better season then last. Lester should also be very solid seeing on how he has had a regular offseason and has put on a ton of muscle from what I have heard.

[Gom]

I think that Buchholz will out produce what Schilling would have done this year anyway. Thats just my opinion. Also I think that DiceK is going to have a much better season then last. Lester should also be very solid seeing on how he has had a regular offseason and has put on a ton of muscle from what I have heard.

I agree on the Buchholz and Lester statement, but not on the Dice K one. Japanese pitchers tend to have their best season as their first one. Now that everyone has seen this guy, both him and Okajima will be hit harder this year.

 

Before you guys get your pink Boston panties in a bunch, it's not like I think Kennedy [1.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP] or Chamberlain [0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP] will be anywhere close to what they put up last year either.

[jacksonianmarch]

The reports I am reading have the sox starting the yr with Tavarez as the 5th starter and Buchholz in AAA.

[MANNYHOF24]

The reports I am reading have the sox starting the yr with Tavarez as the 5th starter and Buchholz in AAA.

 

That's not going to happen. Every Boston beat writer I have heard says that there is a 95% chance Buchholz is going to be in the rotation.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, think about it. Lets say Buchholz comes up at the end of May. He'd save 3 weeks of April and then be on a count for another month. That would essentially guarantee a full yr plus playoffs.

[Mr Crunchy]

not to interupt this yankee circle jerk here but no one mentioned tim wakefield and his 175-200 ip with a 4.5 era and 15 wins that can jusifyibly be pencilled in

not to mention the jules did an adequete job last year as a starter and the tall guy dee snyder should finally have the endurance to go 5 an outing if we need it a few times next year.

the staff is deep for a change

losing an arroyo and a schilling then wake destroyed 05 but this year we got a lot more to fall back on and these guys arent waiver wire rejects but uoung up and comers with huge upside and mlb experience already in hand

hey if joba and hughes come out of the gate 16-3 at the end of june then the yanks are on their way but petitte has a lot of pressure all of a sudden on him and wang will feel the wrath early on if he reverts back to october,mussina is on the downside and the bullpen still rivera and the ?s...shawn chacon aaron small and al f***ing leiter wont be around in august to do the impossible id venture to say so the yanks will probably move on an arm come july if they feel its competetively sound down the stretch

you get the sense cashman is done pissing away coin on s*** and this will be a telling story on where each franchise can expect to be not just next year but over the next 5 based on all the young arms getting their shot

[riverside sluggers]

The reports I am reading have the sox starting the yr with Tavarez as the 5th starter and Buchholz in AAA.

 

Those arent confirmed reports. If there have been, you would have already seen 1 or 2 threads started up saying so. John Farrell and Terry were on WEEI today discussing the rotation. They went on to say that Buchholz, Tavarez and Snyder are in the mix for the 5th spot. Buchholz obviously has the best stuff of the group. The Sox are projecting him for 180-190 innings

[Mr Crunchy]

becks dice lester wake buck tavares snyder and others

1-4 cemented 5th with a lot of depth and that 5 slot can be used for competetion which is always good.in march

theyre deeper than ever and that makes me sleep well going into the grapefruit stretch

[a700hitter]

Pitching and defense will be the deciding factors, and Jeter is the worst SS in baseball.

 

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02162008/sports/yankees/study_claims_jeter_is_worst_fielding_sho_97934.htm

[riverside sluggers]

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080215&content_id=2374140&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

 

Alrighty, well mlb. com took a poll of 30 MLB managers/representatives of who will win the World Series. 17 votes went to the Red Sox, the next closest ammount was Detriot with 7. None voted for the Yankees.

 

But really picking who will win at the end is a crapshoot. Im taking it one day at a time and enjoying the beginning of spring training. I see PECTA projecting the Mariners to be in last place... wtf? Theyll easily finish 2nd, maybe even a close 2nd to the Angels in the West. They also have Colorado slipping to 4th place, the Rockies have a good chance to be tops in the division

[jacksonianmarch]

becks dice lester wake buck tavares snyder and others

1-4 cemented 5th with a lot of depth and that 5 slot can be used for competetion which is always good.in march

theyre deeper than ever and that makes me sleep well going into the grapefruit stretch

 

Tavarez got lit up like a christmas tree by July and needed to be pulled from the rotation. He essentially got by on luck for the months of June and July since he was still allowing baserunners at a high clip, but was somehow getting the other team to hit the ball to the fielders. Come July, he got lit to the tune of a .370BAA and needed to be pulled. He had never been a good starter in the past and the sox were lucky they got close to 100 innings out of him as a starter. He reminded me of Chacon for us. Tons of baserunners, houdini when it counted. But once it caught up with him, he was useless. I dont think you can seriously look at him as anything but an emergency starter. Snyder is another poor option out of the rotation. His stuff is not what it used to be and now he is more of a once through the order kind of guy. Now that Schilling sounds like he wont be a factor, the sox front 5 sounds pretty damn good. But the depth in that rotation isnt necessarily ready yet. By June, Masterson and Bowden may be ready to step in if injury hits. But if the sox have an April akin to what we had last yr (11 different SPs) you wont take the hit well.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pitching and defense will be the deciding factors, and Jeter is the worst SS in baseball.

 

http://www.nypost.com/seven/02162008/sports/yankees/study_claims_jeter_is_worst_fielding_sho_97934.htm

 

Lugo isnt that great either. And with Schilling out of the equation, our rotations have equalized IMO for the regular season. For the postseason, you guys have the edge with Beckett, but that is only if none of these kids step up into ace form (which I am expecting Joba will be in come October).

[TheKilo]

Lugo is much better defensively than Jeter. This cannot be disputed.

 

Have fun spending $20 million on a singles hitter.

[Gom]

I'm a better defensive shortstop than Jeter. I also suck at short. This is a given.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lugo is much better defensively than Jeter. This cannot be disputed.

 

Have fun spending $20 million on a singles hitter.

 

does lugo even get on base?

[Jayhawk Bill]

Not to rain on any parade, but the Yankees are projected to beat the Red Sox by just three games...about 30 VORP.

 

A few assumptions from the Yankees' PECOTA:

 

1) The Yankees start Joba Chamberlain 25 times and he's their best starting pitcher by far;

 

2) The Yankees get more value from their unnamed spot starter than they do from Wang or Hughes; and

 

3) The Yankees get more value from some unnamed long relief pitcher than they do from any other pitcher except Pettitte, Chamberlain and Rivera.

 

The Yankees are getting over four wins from unnamed players and over three wins from starter Joba Chamberlain according to BP. The Red Sox, FWIW, are supposedly splitting time between Coco and Jacoby and giving Eric Hinske at bats...scratch seven wins from the Yankees for the factors I've mentioned and two from the Red Sox for Schilling's injury, and Boston suddenly looks two games better.

 

***

 

Edit: That "unnamed player" mentioned twice has to be Ian Kennedy, who was listed at less value in the 2008 PECOTA spreadsheet but who may have benefitted from last-minute tweaking. I consider projecting Kennedy as better than Hughes, Wang and Mussina to be a stretch, but it's the only way it makes sense.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Last year, we had the following pitchers start games for us:

 

Igawa

Tyler Clippard

Matt DeSalvo

Darrell Rasner

Sean Henn

Jeff Karstens

Carl Pavano

Chase Wright

 

 

Who is to say a bunch of those guys don't make starts this season. Fact is the Yankee rotation can never stay healthy. Wang was injured last season, Mussina was terrible and hurt, Hughes was injured, Pettite is a year older...I can see plenty of injuries coming away from the Yankee rotation again. Overall I don't think the Yankee bullpen is that strong so they won't save the team on a regular basis like the Red Sox bullpen can do.

 

What I'm saying it is that the loss of Schilling puts the Red Sox behind the Yankees at this point.

 

The Red Sox are replacing Julian Tavarez (7-11) and Curt Schilling (9-8) (overall=16-19)with two better pitchers in Jon Lester(4-0) and Clay Buchholz(3-1)(overall=7-1). Both youngsters are coming away with great offseason training where both players have added muscle bulk to prepare for a full season. My only concern is Tim Wakefield. I'm hopeful he can get through 180-200 innings this season. If not we are loaded in the minors to pull off a deal or another Clay Buchholz may emerge (Bowden, Masterson, Hagadone, Johnson).

[TheKilo]

 

 

The Red Sox are replacing Julian Tavarez (7-11) and Curt Schilling (9-8) (overall=16-19)with two better pitchers in Jon Lester(4-0) and Clay Buchholz(3-1)(overall=7-1). Both youngsters are coming away with great offseason training where both players have added muscle bulk to prepare for a full season. My only concern is Tim Wakefield. I'm hopeful he can get through 180-200 innings this season. If not we are loaded in the minors to pull off a deal or another Clay Buchholz may emerge (Bowden, Masterson, Hagadone, Johnson).

 

Please do not cite wins as a measure of a pitchers worth.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not the best of arguments when you are putting W/L in the fray. Schilling was good for 150IP of sub 4 ERA. That is not replaceable as of this very moment. Tavarez was terrible and it took an amazingly awful month to point that out. Overall, those two arent absolutely irreplaceable. The one thing Schill gave you was another seasoned postseason veteran.

 

That being said, those who poo-poo Hughes but hype Buchholz are nuts. Buchholz has a lot to prove, but he certainly has the goods to do so. We shall see how he holds up through the grueling stretch of 162. Lester OTOH, I have been unimpressed by stuff wise. I think he is a fantastic human being in his triumph over cancer, but I am absolutely not sold on his stuff. He is a kid who lives off his curve, yet has poor command of his fastball. Couple that with his career 1.57WHIP and you have the makings of a kid who needs to either improve or get shillacked. He doesnt have the stuff to live as dangerously as he has thus far.

[jacksonianmarch]

Also, as of right now, the sox and yankees are rather equal in the rotation without Schilling.

 

Beckett>Wang

DMats

Wakefield=Mussina

Buchholz=Hughes

Lester=Kennedy

 

Throw in the wild card that Joba offers and I think the yankees have the rotation as it stands right now. If Joba remains in the pen, then I think we can make a case for an equal pen too. Regardless, so many unknowns on teams that have traditionally been filled with all stars makes this season intriguing to say the least. Both of these teams have the capability to rise to unseen heights or crash and burn solely based upon the reliance on solid yet unproven arms.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Also, as of right now, the sox and yankees are rather equal in the rotation without Schilling.

 

Beckett>Wang

DMats

Wakefield=Mussina

Buchholz=Hughes

Lester=Kennedy

 

Throw in the wild card that Joba offers and I think the yankees have the rotation as it stands right now.

 

Per the BP PECOTA given at the teams' links, the Boston pitchers you named sum to 129.3 runs of VORP while the Yankees pitchers sum to only 97.5 runs of VORP.

 

Joba Chamberlain is listed at 34.7 runs of VORP as a starter. If one assumes that he pitches 25 starts, then it roughly evens out...barring that, the Red Sox pitching is better, even without Schilling.

 

Note that BP's final standings prediction suggests that Boston will allow fewer runs than the Yankees will...it's the Yankees' offense that carries the day if all goes as BP predicts.