PECOTA projects Yanks win the East

[riverside sluggers]

Innings pitched (2007)

 

Red Sox

Matsuzaka- 204.2 innings

Beckett- 200.2 innings

Wakefield- 189 innings

Lester (minors & mlb)- 153.2 innings

Buchholz (minors & mlb)- 148 innings. Sox have him projcted for 180-190 innings this year

 

Yankees

Pettitte- 215.1 innings

Chien-Ming Wang- 199.1 innings

Kennedy (minors & mlb)- 165.1 innings

Mussina- 152 innings

Chamberlain (minors & mlb)- 116 innings pitched. Will probably start out season in bullpen as 8th inning set up for Mariano. Yankees will have to hope that somebody steps up and then some when he goes on to start games. The loss of Joba there def gives the Sox the advantage of having the better bullpen.

Phillip Hughes (minors & mlb)- 110 innings

[jacksonianmarch]

hughes?

[jacksonianmarch]

Innings pitched (2007)

 

Red Sox

Matsuzaka- 204.2 innings

Beckett- 200.2 innings

Wakefield- 189 innings

Lester (minors & mlb)- 153.2 innings

Buchholz (minors & mlb)- 148 innings. Sox have him projcted for 180-190 innings this year

 

Yankees

Pettitte- 215.1 innings

Chien-Ming Wang- 199.1 innings

Kennedy (minors & mlb)- 165.1 innings

Mussina- 152 innings

Chamberlain (minors & mlb)- 116 innings pitched. Will probably start out season in bullpen as 8th inning set up for Mariano. Yankees will have to hope that somebody steps up and then some when he goes on to start games. The loss of Joba there def gives the Sox the advantage of having the better bullpen.

 

Couple things.

As you notice, the yankees top 2 threw 10 more innings than yours. I would say we should have a similar disparity since Beckett had never thrown that many innings in any yr prior and DMats will likely be babied a bit more after watching him crash and burn last yr. Wake and Mussina have very similar workloads the past 2 yrs, so I continue to call them a wash. The last 2 spots will be filled by hot shot rookies on both ends. There really is nearly no disparity.

 

In the pen, you guys have the edge on paper now. With Joba out there, it evens things a bit, but I dont expect him to stay there for long. As a matter of fact, I expect Joba to supplant Mussina from the rotation come the end of the yr. So therefore, I think it would behoove the yankees to use Joba twice a week in multiple inning stints so he can already be stretched out come his time to enter the rotation. That would essentially eliminate him from contention as a setup man. Hawkins and Farnsworth, two decidedly average MR's will likely begin the yr as the 7th and 8th inning guys. Either they need to be lights out or one of the myriad other solid MR prospects needs to step up. I have my eye on Ohlie and Albaladejo. Regardless, there is no shortage of arms to fill the pen slots, and all with high upside. We just need to find something that works come the post season, if we make it that far.

 

On your side, you start the yr just as reliant on kids as we are, if not moreso. You are relying on Buchholz and Lester to stay in the rotation for the entire yr. To say that these kids are any more likely to hold down a spot for the yr than our kids is homerism. And now with Schill out of the way, our top 3's are about even in terms of expected workload. So there really isnt much contention that we are both reliant on kids in our rotation. In terms of your pen, I think Oki was figured out late and will likely fall into a middle relief rather than a setup option. I also think that your combo of Delcarmen and Papelbon will be your SU-CL combo for a long time.

[Mr Crunchy]

lester has 2 years under his belt now including the world series clincher

buckholz will not be needed out of the chute

snyder is a decent 5th option if he can throw 100pitches and tavares is just as reliable as mike mussina is these days...

but i suspect bucholz will be too good to keep down and he will have won the job in march.

i feel a lot better about bostons staff than nys

i wonder if wang tung is going to feel the hangover of being the worst pitcher in baseball last october?

the idea of him being a #1 is now gone but they still will need him to give them 200ip with a 3.75 era and that in itself is extremely valuable and should get him 15-18 wins this year.

the rest of the staff is debatable

i wonder if andy petitte will have his dad around to get him thru the hard times of being a rat,a drug user,a cheater and a liar?

i mean who knew?

we all thought he was a stand up guy and a role model

he is anything but a stand up guy and a role model.

nice huh

daddy feeding the 35 year old son roids?

and he is the guy being viewed as the paragon of virtue in the mitchell report becuase he only lied a couple of times.

mussina is finished

hughes finished well last year

chamberlain is in the bullpen and kennedy is a mystery

[ACL BoSox]

I don't know if I buy this, it has seattle finishing last. I think seattle may take the division, at worst second place. Oakland or texas is by far the worst team in the division.

[ksushi]

Seattle doesn't have the supporting cast to win it, but they could make it fun for awhile. You have to take any statistical projection with a grain of salt. Buy into it or not, there is plenty of room for error.

 

I don't see the point in these PECOTA team projections other than for MIT kids to show off how well they know math and how much time they have to kill. Jeez, watch a baseball game or something.

 

 

 

That said, a lot of my friends seem to think we trump the yankees hands down and... well, I don't think its like that. I think if we played the Yankees in the ALCS 26-6 would be changing his username to 27-6 instead of 26-7.... erm, that was awkward but whatever. Joba to Mariano is scary. Pettitte in the post-season is scary. Their offense could have been the exception to the rule that pitching always beats good hitting, except for that whole pesky 5-game first round thing. There is no transitive property in baseball, math nerds, because we beat the Guardians and the Guardians beat the yankees does not mean we were better than the yankees. They had our number, and this season is going to be a dog fight. I like our rotation to hold up a little better over the long haul for now, and I like our ability to trade for missing pieces with our farm.

[ksushi]

New Babysitters cut edition! Commentary in bold.

 

Couple things.

As you notice, the yankees top 2 threw 10 more innings than yours. I would say we should have a similar disparity since Beckett had never thrown that many innings in any yr prior (except for 2006) and DMats will likely be babied a bit more after watching him crash and burn last yr (A Phenomenon known as 'Rookie wall syndrome, usually not a factor in sophmore season. Japanese players appear particularly susceptible in their first season.) Wake and Mussina have very similar workloads the past 2 yrs(and similar fastballs), so I continue to call them a wash. The last 2 spots will be filled by hot shot rookies on both ends. There really is nearly no disparity.

 

 

You sure type well with your fingers crossed.

 

I'll read the rest of that post tomorrow when I get the stomach to actually start arguing with you again. It's that time of year.

[Cocos Disciples]

Oakland or texas is by far the worst team in the division.

 

If its either of them, how is it "by far"

 

I jest. However, I got the West going Angels, Mariners, A's, Rangers.

[BSN07]

The hell with Petco, lets put our own predictions up.

 

East

1.Sox

2-4. Yanks, Jays, Rays, I honestly think it could end up being any combination of the three. TB has got decent pitching. And if there youngsters continue to produce they could cause problems in the division. The Jays if healthy could hang around for awhile, but there lack of pitching depth/ injury prone pitchers will likely be there downfall. The Yanks as usual could go either way. If they have to throw out 11 different SP in the first couple months, or there older players go down for along period of time, they could have a real problem crawling back up the standings, but hey there the Yanks and seem to do it every yr so we will see.

5. Baltimore, they will be holding up the bottom of the dividsion for a few yrs.

 

Central

1. Detroit

2. Guardians

3. Minnesota

4. White Sox

5. KC, they might beat out CWS for the 4th spot possibly.

 

West

1.LAA

2. Seattle

3.Oakland

4. Texas

 

NL

 

East

1. Mets

2. Philles

3. ATL

4.Florida

5. Nationals

 

Central

1. Chicago

2. Brewers

3-5. Cardinals, Reds, Astros, Like the AL East, any combination is plausable.

5. Pirates

 

 

West

1. Arizona

2. SD

3. Rockies, I don't think the Rockies where a fluke, But there pitching is suspect, and the other 2 teams have bonified #1's in the rotation.

4. LAD

5 SF

 

 

Guardians, and Brewers as WC teams.

[Cocos Disciples]

Well on that note, here are mine:

 

East:

Sox

Yanks

Jays

Rays

Orioles

 

Central:

Tigers

Guardians

White Sox

Twins

Royals

 

West:

Angels

Mariners

Athletics

Rangers

 

NL East:

Mets

Braves

Phillies

Marlins

Nationals

 

Central:

Brewers

Cubs

Astros

Reds

Cardinals

Pirates

 

West:

Padres

Dodgers

DBacks

Rockies

Giants

 

WC Yankees and Cubs

[TheKilo]

Seattle doesn't have the supporting cast to win it, but they could make it fun for awhile. You have to take any statistical projection with a grain of salt. Buy into it or not, there is plenty of room for error.

 

I don't see the point in these PECOTA team projections other than for MIT kids to show off how well they know math and how much time they have to kill. Jeez, watch a baseball game or something.

 

 

 

That said, a lot of my friends seem to think we trump the yankees hands down and... well, I don't think its like that. I think if we played the Yankees in the ALCS 26-6 would be changing his username to 27-6 instead of 26-7.... erm, that was awkward but whatever. Joba to Mariano is scary. Pettitte in the post-season is scary. Their offense could have been the exception to the rule that pitching always beats good hitting, except for that whole pesky 5-game first round thing. There is no transitive property in baseball, math nerds, because we beat the Guardians and the Guardians beat the yankees does not mean we were better than the yankees. They had our number, and this season is going to be a dog fight. I like our rotation to hold up a little better over the long haul for now, and I like our ability to trade for missing pieces with our farm.

 

..........................................

[Cocos Disciples]

PECOTA projections are some of the best out there.

[riverside sluggers]

Couple things.

As you notice, the yankees top 2 threw 10 more innings than yours. I would say we should have a similar disparity since Beckett had never thrown that many innings in any yr prior and DMats will likely be babied a bit more after watching him crash and burn last yr. Wake and Mussina have very similar workloads the past 2 yrs, so I continue to call them a wash. The last 2 spots will be filled by hot shot rookies on both ends. There really is nearly no disparity.

 

In the pen, you guys have the edge on paper now. With Joba out there, it evens things a bit, but I dont expect him to stay there for long. As a matter of fact, I expect Joba to supplant Mussina from the rotation come the end of the yr. So therefore, I think it would behoove the yankees to use Joba twice a week in multiple inning stints so he can already be stretched out come his time to enter the rotation. That would essentially eliminate him from contention as a setup man. Hawkins and Farnsworth, two decidedly average MR's will likely begin the yr as the 7th and 8th inning guys. Either they need to be lights out or one of the myriad other solid MR prospects needs to step up. I have my eye on Ohlie and Albaladejo. Regardless, there is no shortage of arms to fill the pen slots, and all with high upside. We just need to find something that works come the post season, if we make it that far.

 

On your side, you start the yr just as reliant on kids as we are, if not moreso. You are relying on Buchholz and Lester to stay in the rotation for the entire yr. To say that these kids are any more likely to hold down a spot for the yr than our kids is homerism. And now with Schill out of the way, our top 3's are about even in terms of expected workload. So there really isnt much contention that we are both reliant on kids in our rotation. In terms of your pen, I think Oki was figured out late and will likely fall into a middle relief rather than a setup option. I also think that your combo of Delcarmen and Papelbon will be your SU-CL combo for a long time.

 

Phillip Hughes (minors & mlb)- 110 innings

 

Actually Beckett has now thrown 200 innings for 2 years in a row. So he has in fact thrown that many innings in a year before

[Gom]

The way I see it, the Yankees and Sox were two games apart last year. The loss of Schilling makes the Yankees better than the Sox. To tell you the truth, one semi-major injury will change it around.

 

I don't know about you guys, but this is the closest I think the teams are in talent at the start of the spring training as far as I can remember.

 

I think the "swing" players for the Yankees are Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy in pitching, and Giambi and Damon in hitting.

 

For the Sox, I think it's Lester/Buchholz and Drew/Varitek. Whoever outperforms the other group wins the division.

[schillingouttheks]

Buchholz replacing Schilling is not better than Schilling pitching? I think so.

 

Anyway, here are my predictions:

 

AL

EAST:

Red Sox

Yankees

Blue Jays

Devil Rays

Orioles

 

CENTRAL:

Guardians

Tigers

White Sox

Twins

Royals

 

WEST:

Angels

Mariners

Rangers

Athletics

 

NL

EAST:

Mets

Braves

Phillies

Marlins

Nationals

 

CENTRAL:

Brewers

Cubs

Reds

Cardinals

Astros

Pirates

 

WEST:

Dodgers

Padres

Diamondbacks

Rockies

Giants

 

WC: Tigers and Braves

[26 to 6]

I hate doing this because the season is so long and so many different things could happen but f*** it....

 

AL East

Yankees

Red Sox

Tampa Bay

Toronto

Baltimore

 

AL Central

Tigers

Guardians

Twins

Royals

White Sox

 

AL West

Mariners

Angels

Rangers

Oakland

 

NL East

Mets

Phillies

Braves

Marlins

Nats

 

NL Central

Cubs

Brewers

Cardinals

Pirates

Reds

Astros

 

NL West

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Rockies

Padres

Giants

[Mr Crunchy]

the sox finished the season 2 games ahead of ny

but

they essentially had a post season slot tied up with 6 weeks to play and they were able to sit some tired arms and legs down the stretch.

it reminded me so much of the yanks in the late 90s

we'd be battling for our playoff lives and would make a run,meanwhile ny would be resting their staff for an entire turn in the rotation and we'd have to send pedro and the pretenders who at this time were exhausted.

petey was great and all but never a guy who could go on 3 days rest like becks can

christ

if petey went on 4 days rest he was shaky.

i say matsusaka improves big time and gets his era under 4

the sox should again win the division in a race that is close till august

[ACL BoSox]

If its either of them, how is it "by far"

 

I jest. However, I got the West going Angels, Mariners, A's, Rangers.

 

Anaheim & Seattle close battle for first.... Oakland & Texas both far away battling for last.

[jacksonianmarch]

predicting right now is very difficult to do. Too many moving parts and too many things hinging on the success of kids.

 

We are doomed if Joba, Kennedy and Hughes arent at least MLB average. You guys are screwed if DMats,Buchholz, and Lester fall off the face of the earth. Likewise, we'd both be in great positions if all of our kids do well. Too tough to decide. What I do know is that our offense and your pen on paper look better than the other. Thats it.

[26 to 6]

the sox finished the season 2 games ahead of ny

but

they essentially had a post season slot tied up with 6 weeks to play and they were able to sit some tired arms and legs down the stretch.

it reminded me so much of the yanks in the late 90s

we'd be battling for our playoff lives and would make a run,meanwhile ny would be resting their staff for an entire turn in the rotation and we'd have to send pedro and the pretenders who at this time were exhausted.

petey was great and all but never a guy who could go on 3 days rest like becks can

christ

if petey went on 4 days rest he was shaky.

i say matsusaka improves big time and gets his era under 4

the sox should again win the division in a race that is close till august

4 days rest is normal rest....I can't call Pedro shaky on normal rest. Were we watching the same guy?

[das11209]

predicting right now is very difficult to do. Too many moving parts and too many things hinging on the success of kids.

 

We are doomed if Joba, Kennedy and Hughes arent at least MLB average. You guys are screwed if DMats,Buchholz, and Lester fall off the face of the earth. Likewise, we'd both be in great positions if all of our kids do well. Too tough to decide. What I do know is that our offense and your pen on paper look better than the other. Thats it.

 

Add to doomlist - Pettite not available all summer because he is the main witness to a civil suit!

[Gom]

I love how with 99% of people, hope springs eternal.

 

Kennedy, Hughes, and Chamberlain will be major league average. That's all you need from the Yankees point of view anyways. Last year, a huge fall off from Wang/Pettitte to everyone else. Posada falls off. So does Arod. Cano hopefully improves. Jeter starts the inevitable decline. Damon improves. Matsui falls off. Abreu you don't even notice, but puts up excellent numbers again. Pettitte and Wang pitch about the same. Rivera is still Rivera. The team takes a step back offensively, and moves up a notch pitching wise.

 

Same exact thing with the Red Sox. Ortiz and Manny start to slow down. Drew improves slightly. Varitek's final season as a major league caliber catcher. Lowell comes back to earth. Pedroia and Youkilis improve. Beckett tails off, and Lester/Buchholz are average like the Yankees trio. Schilling is finished. Red Sox stay about the same on both offense and defense.

 

Injuries decide this thing. Not many people realize how close these two teams were last year. Two games separated them all season. Both were down 3-1 to the Guardians. You had the luxury of a 7 game season. To say either team blows the other out is a joke.

 

What I'm curious about is this scenario:

 

Both teams are in the playoffs. Final series of the season. Whoever wins the series gets home field due to best record. Do you burn out your pitchers to secure it, or rest up your starters? That, my friends, will be the big story the last week of the season.

[Ray10]

I hate doing this because the season is so long and so many different things could happen but f*** it....

 

AL East

Yankees

Red Sox

Tampa Bay

Toronto

Baltimore

 

AL Central

Tigers

Guardians

Twins

Royals

White Sox

 

AL West

Mariners

Angels

Rangers

Oakland

 

NL East

Mets

Phillies

Braves

Marlins

Nats

 

NL Central

Cubs

Brewers

Cardinals

Pirates

Reds

Astros

 

NL West

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Rockies

Padres

Giants

 

Tampa Bay will finish ahead of Toronto.?

[Cocos Disciples]

Wouldn't be surprising. If the Rays youngsters pan out, i.e. Longoria, Upton, and if Rocco Baldelli is healthy, and Pena doesn't completely regress, its very possible.

[26 to 6]

Tampa Bay will finish ahead of Toronto.?

I think they very well may.

[Jayhawk Bill]

[table]AL East | |

Red Sox | 97 | 65

Yankees | 96 | 66

Blue Jays | 83 | 79

Rays | 82 | 80

Orioles | 72 | 90

| |

AL Central | |

Guardians | 91 | 71

Tigers | 90 | 72

Twins | 75 | 87

White Sox | 74 | 88

Royals | 70 | 92

| |

AL West | |

Angels | 87 | 75

Athletics | 81 | 81

Mariners | 76 | 87

Rangers | 74 | 88

| |

NL East | |

Mets | 93 | 69

Braves | 86 | 76

Phillies | 86 | 76

Marlins | 75 | 87

Nationals | 72 | 90

| |

NL Central | |

Cubs | 87 | 75

Brewers | 85 | 77

Reds | 77 | 85

Cardinals | 74 | 88

Astros | 71 | 91

Pirates | 69 | 93

| |

NL West | |

Dodgers | 88 | 74

Rockies | 87 | 75

Diamondbacks | 82 | 80

Padres | 82 | 80

Giants | 74 | 88

[/table]

[Cocos Disciples]

[table]AL East | |

Red Sox | 95 | 67

Yankees | 91 | 71

Rays | 81 | 81

Blue Jays | 80 | 82

Orioles | 65 | 97

| |

AL Central | |

Tigers | 93 | 69

Guardians | 90 | 72

White Sox | 79 | 83

Twins | 72 | 90

Royals | 68 | 94

| |

AL West | |

Angels | 90 | 72

Mariners | 84 | 78

Athletics | 76 | 86

Rangers | 72 | 90

| |

NL East | |

Mets | 98 | 64

Braves | 89 | 73

Phillies | 87 | 75

Marlins | 71 | 91

Nationals | 69 | 93

| |

NL Central | |

Brewers | 89 | 73

Cubs | 85 | 77

Astros | 76 | 86

Reds | 75 | 87

Pirates | 72 | 90

Cardinals | 70 | 92

| |

NL West | |

Padres | 90 | 72

Dodgers | 86 | 76

Rockies | 83 | 79

DBacks | 81 | 81

Giants | 70 | 92

[/table]