Gossage in the Hall

[Cocos Disciples]

Goose Gossage was voted in to the HOF, Jim Rice was 16 votes shy (72.2 percent). The voters got it right IMO.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof08/news/story?id=3186626

[a700hitter]

Goose Gossage was voted in to the HOF, Jim Rice was 16 votes shy (72.2 percent). The voters got it right IMO.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof08/news/story?id=3186626

I disagree. Rice was a fearsome hitter with legendary power, and he did not have a home run hitters swing. He had a line drive short swing. He could run very well for a big man, which is why he had a lot of triples, and he was very underrated with the glove. He was overshadowed in the field by Fred Lynn who was a very graceful CFer and by Dwight Evans who was one of the great RF's of all time. Let's not forget that he followed one of the all-time great LFs in Yaz, and that Yaz still played some LF after Rice joined the team.

[jacksonianmarch]

There was actually a pretty good article against Rice making the hall a few weeks back. I think it was Neyer who wrote it. It made some very good points.

 

In terms of Gossage, he was the Mariano of his time. Should have made the hall yrs ago.

[mtbykr]

Here's the article:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=neyer_rob

 

 

Rice doesn't belong in Hall

posted: Thursday, December 27, 2007 | Feedback | Print Entry

filed under: MLB

 

Dan Shaughnessy's revealed his Hall of Fame ballot . He's voting for Rich Gossage and Bert Blyleven, which is mighty enlightened of him. I wish Alan Trammell and Tim Raines were on the list, too. But Shaughnessy apparently hails from the less-is-more school, and I wish there were more voters like him.

He's also voting for Jim Rice and believes (as I do) that Rice will finally be elected this time.

Two years ago, Rice received more votes than any player who didn't earn enshrinement, but last year his chances diminished because of the introduction of new candidates Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn . The best new names on this year's ballot are Tim Raines and David Justice. Rice beats both. ...

Writers looking at the new ballot want to vote for somebody and it's clear that Gossage and Rice -- so close in recent years -- have better resumes than any of the new names.

The presence of second-year candidate Mark McGwire helps Rice, too. With 583 career homers, Big Mac would have been a slam dunk for Cooperstown if not for the steroid scandal. His name came up for the first time last year and voters categorically rejected him. With memories of his de facto congressional confession still fresh, only 23.5 percent of the electorate went for McGwire.

It can only help Rice. He was a dominant power hitter before steroids polluted the game and skewed the numbers. Rice hit 46 homers in a season back when it meant something -- before 50 became the province of guys like Brady Anderson and Luis Gonzalez. People who played and watched major league baseball from 1975-86 know that Rice was the most feared hitter of his day. Managers thought about intentionally walking him when he came to the plate with the bases loaded. He played hard and he played hurt. His managers loved him. Opponents feared him.

Let me return to something I wrote about a few weeks ago: the Morris Test. Named after Jack Morris, the test simply asks: If we take a player's two prime Hall of Fame credentials and downgrade them just a little , does he still have a solid case?

Actually, I don't believe the Morris Test even applies to Rice, because I don't believe he has two prime Hall of Fame credentials. Nobody cites his 382 career homers, because 382 is paltry for a player whose best-known attribute was power. He wasn't a "dominant power hitter" (as Shaughnessy says); he did lead the American League in home runs three times, but finished in the top five in his league only twice more. Mike Schmidt led the National League in home runs eight times. That's dominant. Yes, Rice hit 46 homers in a season. This was not an exceptional figure in his time. The year before Rice hit 46, George Foster hit 52. The year after Rice hit 46, Dave Kingman hit 48. Rice never hit as many as 40 home runs in another season.

Nobody cites his other career stats, because by the standards of Hall of Fame outfielders they're nothing special.

Turns out Rice has one credential: As Shaughnessy and so many others have said over the years, he was "the most feared hitter of his day" ... but was he, really? I'm still waiting for someone, anybody .

Shaughnessy cites intentional walks: "Managers thought about intentionally walking him when he came to the plate with the bases loaded." Well, that's an interesting bit of untestable trivia, but for the moment let's ignore all those imaginary intentional walks and talk about the real ones. Because yes, a great number of intentional walks would suggest that a player really was feared.

Rice's 12 best seasons -- 1975-1986 -- are usually mentioned because the rest of his career was not good. Did Rice draw more intentional walks than anyone else over those 12 seasons? From 1975 through 1986 -- remember, that range of seasons has been chosen specifically to make Rice look his best -- 32 major leaguers drew more intentional walks than Jim Rice.

Yes, he batted right-handed, and right-handed batters generally are intentionally walked less often than left-handed batters. So let's be fair. Let's ignore all those left-handed batters. Did Rice draw more intentional walks than every other right-handed batter over those 12 fearsome seasons?

Twelve right-handed batters were, by this standard, more feared, including (but far from limited to) George Foster, Ron Cey, Greg Luzinski, Jack Clark and Dale Murphy.

I've run through other stats before. Even if we limit ourselves to Rice's 12 good years, we still find that he doesn't look good next to non-Hall of Famers Keith Hernandez and Fred Lynn and is dead even with Ken Singleton. If we include the massive edge he gained from Fenway Park and his lack of defensive value, he falls farther down the list. Rice not only fails the Morris Test, he fails it spectacularly. His Hall of Fame case rests solely on an argument that wouldn't be particularly compelling even if it were true. Which it's not.

You know what? I get it. I understand that Shaughnessy and nearly every other writer in Boston have to support the local guys. With Rice clearly lacking objective Hall of Fame credentials, they're forced to fall back on the ill-founded, untestable notion that he was the "most feared" hitter for more than a year or two.

What I don't understand is why so many voters in so many other cities believe it.

 

[a700hitter]

Rice's well-deserved reputation as the most feared hitter of his day among his peers defies the stats. No one who played during that time or who followed the game would put Ken Singleton (a very good player), Jack Clark, Ron Cey (lol) or Dave Kingman (lmao) with Rice.

 

How Kirby Puckett could be in the Hall, but not Rice completely baffles me. Puckett wasn't even the dominant lead off hitter of his day. Rickey Henderson had that honor.

[riverside sluggers]

With the majority of sportswriters' disgust for Rice, Id be surprised if he's ever in the Hall now

[redsoxrules]

and rickey henderson will be on the ballot next year , so he'll take a few votes from rice away

[riverside sluggers]

Henderson is a no doubeter to be a 1st ballot inductee

[Jayhawk Bill]

Rice's well-deserved reputation as the most feared hitter of his day among his peers defies the stats.

 

Jim Rice earned 3.15 MVP Award Shares. Only one player with more who's eligible for the HOF isn't yet inducted: Dave Parker, the best player in the NL at the time Rice was the best in the AL. Parker has 3.19 career award shares.

 

Many of the great players who started a decade later than Rice probably extended their careers with PEDs, diminishing the respect for the great players of half a generation before them. Here are the only players who were rookies in the 1970's to make the HOF:

 

Paul Molitor: 3,319 hits

Eddie Murray: 3,255 hits

Cal Ripken: 3,184 hits

George Brett: 3,154 hits

Robin Yount: 3,142 hits

Dave Winfield: 3,110 hits

Mike Schmidt: 548 HR, 3 MVP, 8 GG

Carlton Fisk: 2226 games caught, 376 HR, 11-time All Star

Gary Carter: 324 HR, 11-time All Star

Ozzie Smith: 13 GG

 

To make the HOF from the 1980's, one either had to be in the 3,000 hit club, the 500 home run club (and Schmidt was far better than just a slugger), or one of the few best at a demanding defensive position in the history of baseball. But even of these elite players, only Schmidt, Murray and Brett earned more MVP Award Shares than Rice.

 

No one who played during that time or who followed the game would put Ken Singleton (a very good player), Jack Clark, Ron Cey (lol) or Dave Kingman (lmao) with Rice.

 

MVP Award Shares

 

[table]Jim Rice | 3.15

Ken Singleton | 1.43

Jack Clark | 1.16

Ron Cey | 0.25

Dave Kingman | 0.26[/table]

 

Your words are confirmed.

 

How Kirby Puckett could be in the Hall, but not Rice completely baffles me. Puckett wasn't even the dominant lead off hitter of his day. Rickey Henderson had that honor.

 

Kirby Puckett had 2.56 MVP Award Shares. He was almost as well-regarded as Rice at his peak. Three things in Puckett's favor:

 

1) He was a CF, and he was perceived to be good at it. Rice was a LF, and he was perceived to be bad at it, although Rice's career Range Factor per game just edges out Carl Yastrzemski's, suggesting that he might've been pretty good defensively.

 

2) Kirby Puckett's vision declined and he immediately retired. Jim Rice's vision declined and he played for three more years as a below-average left fielder. Puckett got sympathy votes; Rice lost his .300 career batting average.

 

3) Kirby Puckett was a very upbeat and popular guy. Jim Rice was a grumpy fart who could only be loved by Bostonians (and, considering the Bonds era, perhaps San Franciscans).

 

There may be a fourth thing in Puckett's favor: PEDs. Check out his stats: he had 4 home runs his first two years and he suddenly had 31 in his third season. His defense suffered terribly, as one would expect from a center fielder bulked up with steroids. Several of his teammates shared his power surge in 1985-86: Gary Gaetti (20 to 34 HR), Greg Gagne (2 to 12 HR), Kent Hrbek (21 to 29 HR), and Roy Smalley (12 to 20 HR). Nobody had a big drop, and Steve Lombardozzi went from 0 to 8 HR. Heck, Billy Beane had every home run of his MLB career with the 1986 Twins. There certainly may be other explanations, but knowing what we know now one has to wonder about a guy who gains so much power hitting in so little time.

 

But Jim Rice had more MVP Award Shares than Puckett. He was regarded as a better player at his peak, and he had better career milestone counts than Puckett, too.

[a700hitter]

There may be a fourth thing in Puckett's favor: PEDs. Check out his stats: he had 4 home runs his first two years and he suddenly had 31 in his third season. His defense suffered terribly, as one would expect from a center fielder bulked up with steroids. Several of his teammates shared his power surge in 1985-86: Gary Gaetti (20 to 34 HR), Greg Gagne (2 to 12 HR), Kent Hrbek (21 to 29 HR), and Roy Smalley (12 to 20 HR). Nobody had a big drop, and Steve Lombardozzi went from 0 to 8 HR. Heck, Billy Beane had every home run of his MLB career with the 1986 Twins. There certainly may be other explanations, but knowing what we know now one has to wonder about a guy who gains so much power hitting in so little time.

I was aware of those stats. In one of those years, he had 0 HRs. He had more than 1200 ABs in those 2 years so his HR/AB ratio was about 1/300. That's Jaason Kendall numbers. I wasn't aware if he had been rumored to be using PEDs.

[26 to 6]

Well congratulations to Goose Gossage for finally getting his induction, even if he is following Sutter when it should have been the other way around. Interestingly when in regards to a Hall of Famer, Gossage spent the duration of his career with several different teams. Of course the 6 and a half seasons with the Yankees, but pror to that 5 seasons with the White Sox, 1 in Pittsburgh, and after leaving the Yankees 4 seasons in San Diego, 1 in Chicago with the Cubs, half of '89 with the Giants (before being traded back to the Yankees), 1990 he spent with the Fukuoka Deai(currently Softbank) Hawks in Japan, and then '91 with the Rangers, the next two seasons in Oakland, and finished out in 1994 with Seattle. I just thought it was interesting, considering typically HOFers don't make too many stops. It's pretty obvious that he'll be enshrined wearing a Yankee cap on his plaque, as should be. Considering that he had 310 career saves during a period when a closer's duty didn't solely consist of picking up saves, but also holding onto and winning games; which he did with a .537 winning percentage (124-107), it's a mystery why it took so long for him to get inducted, but not only that but why it took so long for closers of that era to be appreciated. I think Goose Gossage is well deserving of this honor.

[a700hitter]

Goose definitely deserves induction, but I am certain of this. No GM at the time would have considered traded Jim Rice in his prime for Goose in his prime. Rice belongs too. He was the bigger star of the era.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I was aware of those stats. In one of those years, he had 0 HRs. He had more than 1200 ABs in those 2 years so his HR/AB ratio was about 1/300. That's Jaason Kendall numbers. I wasn't aware if he had been rumored to be using PEDs.

 

There are no rumors of which I'm aware. I merely point out that his extraordinary and enduring surge in power was mirrored by several of his teammates, a strong statistical improbability barring an external cause unusual in the history of the game.

Goose definitely deserves induction...

 

Maybe: no problem with his induction, but the standards for relief pitchers are, as yet, ill-defined. The defining stat for relief pitchers' excellence is saves. Career saves leaders:

 

[table]Rank | Player (age if active) | Saves

1 | Trevor Hoffman(39) | 524

2 | Lee Smith | 478

3 | Mariano Rivera(37) | 443

4 | John Franco | 424

5 | Dennis Eckersley | 390

6 | Jeff Reardon | 367

7 | Billy Wagner(35) | 358

8 | Randy Myers | 347

9 | Rollie Fingers | 341

10 | John Wetteland | 330

11 | Roberto Hernandez(42) | 326

12 | Troy Percival(37) | 324

13 | Jose Mesa(41) | 321

14 | Rick Aguilera | 318

15 | Robb Nen | 314

16 | Tom Henke | 311

17 | Rich Gossage | 310

18 | Jeff Montgomery | 304

19 | Doug Jones | 303

20 | Todd Jones(39) | 301

21 | Bruce Sutter | 300

22 | Armando Benitez(34) | 289

23 | Rod Beck | 286

24 | Jason Isringhausen(34) | 281

25 | Bob Wickman(38) | 267

26 | Todd Worrell | 256

27 | Dave Righetti | 252

28 | Dan Quisenberry | 244

29 | Sparky Lyle | 238

30 | Ugueth Urbina | 237[/table]

 

Bunches of those guys ahead of Gossage aren't making the HOF.

 

What about looking at league leadership? Gossage led his league three times. Quisenberry led his league five times, and he's an afterthought.

 

How's this: if Gossage is in, what about Lee Smith? Smith had more career saves, more years leading his league (4, plus 4 second-place finishes, versus three firsts and two seconds for Gossage), and their ERAs were almost identical despite Smith's playing in a hitter's era.

 

Gossage wasn't the best eligible relief pitcher not yet inducted. Rice is the best currently eligible outfielder not yet inducted.

 

...but I am certain of this. No GM at the time would have considered traded Jim Rice in his prime for Goose in his prime. Rice belongs too. He was the bigger star of the era.

 

Absolutely true, and an excellent point.

[TheKilo]

This was Rice's last, and best shot. I'd be shocked if he gets in.

[yankeessuck013]

He still has 1 yr left of eligibility. He should be in next year.

[rician blast]

He still has 1 yr left of eligibility. He should be in next year.

 

 

Doubt it. I think he peaked this year and its down from there...henderson will certainly be a shoe-in next year, and I think that'll hurt Rice in some way.

[TheKilo]

He still has 1 yr left of eligibility. He should be in next year.

 

Disagree. Like RB said, there are more deserving candidates on the ballot next year. This was his last real hurrah, and he fell short.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I think that Rice's strong showing locked his eventual inclusion in the HOF via some Veterans' Committee process, but I agree that it looks as if he won't be voted in by the BBWAA.

[a700hitter]

Other than Rickey Henderson, who else will become eligible next year?

[Cocos Disciples]

David Cone, Jesse Orosco, Mo Vaughn, Mike Grace, Matt Williams, among others.