Tigers getting busy

[VA Sox Fan]

Tigers trying to make a blockbuster

 

Email|Link By Nick Cafardo, Globe Staff December 4, 07 02:12 PM

 

NASHVILLE - While the Red Sox, Yankees and Twins have dominated the news here at the Winter Meetings so far, the Detroit Tigers might be trying to steal everyone's thunder.

 

They are currently in talks on two possible blockbuster deals. One of them with Oakland would center around coveted right-hander Dan Haren, while the other with Florida is keyed on third baseman Miguel Cabrera and possibly both Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis.

 

Tigers' assistant general manager Al Avila, signed both players in his days with the Marlins where Dave Dombrowski, the current Tigers' GM, was the general manager. The Tigers would love to ontain Cabrera, play him third while also having a great role model in Carlos Guillen who is a friend of Cabrera's. Guillen, the team's long-term shortstop, has moved to first base. The Tigers obtained former Red Sox shortstop Edgar Renteria early this off-season.

 

It would seem far-fetched the Tigers could land Willis as well, but the teams may try to work it out. The Tigers would have to include coveted left-handed pitching prospect Andrew Miller and outfielder Cameron Maybin in either Florida or Oakland Scenario.

[26 to 6]

Their reluctance to give up Maybin or Miller would get in the way of a Haren deal being done, and I doubt that the Marlins are doing anything more than trying to raise the price on Cabrera for other teams. But no question the Tigers are trying to make some serious improvements.

[TheKilo]

Their reluctance to give up Maybin or Miller would get in the way of a Haren deal being done' date=' and I doubt that the Marlins are doing anything more than trying to raise the price on Cabrera for other teams. But no question the Tigers are trying to make some serious improvements.[/quote']

 

The price of Cabrera is already rather high. I am more inclined to believe the Tigers actually want Cabrera, especially if they're willing to part with Andrew Miller.

[riverside sluggers]

damn... go Tigers

[jacksonianmarch]

http://wintermeetings.mlblogs.com/nashvilleconfidential/2007/12/tigers_set_to_a.html

 

Tigers get both...

[riverside sluggers]

Congratulatiosn to the Tigers who did a hell of a splash, kudos as well to their FO for keeping it mum

[Cocos Disciples]

Wow. The Guardians may have to do something hefty to respond to that.

 

I'm worried about Dontrelle Willis though. He was bad last year in the NL East, is he going to regress further in the AL Central?

[schillingouttheks]

It's official. Wow, big trade. The Tigers are really making a splash this off-season.

[VA Sox Fan]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3141703

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I like this trade even more for the Florida Marlins.

[26 to 6]

Yeah. Trade works out well for both sides. In fact, I think in the long run this trade may favor the Marlins.

[example1]

Yeah, getting Maybin and Miller ++ is about as great as the Fish could have hoped for.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I like this trade even more for the Florida Marlins.

 

I usually consider the team that got the several young players to have won, but this time I'm not sure. Maybin strikes out a lot--really a lot--and that could derail his development. He's the cornerstone of the package: if he never develops, Detroit probably wins.

 

A couple of points regarding Willis:

 

1) While Willis's ERA ballooned in 2007, that was mostly the result of a sore arm in mid-June. He was day-to-day after pitching just one inning on June 19th. He didn't get better until mid-September, but he had two strong starts and a good short outing to wrap his season. Willis had a 6.14 ERA through the three months following his injury--besides that he was pretty much the old D-Train.

 

2) One area where he really was "the old D-Train" was xFIP. His xFIP went up only 0.09 from 2006 to 2007, while his ERA went up almost a run and a half. That suggests bad luck with fly balls leaving the ballpark, and that's correct: his HR/FB went from 10.8% to 15.0%. He also had some bad D behind him: he's suffered badly having Hanley Ramirez at shortstop.

 

Miggy is reported to have lost 15 lbs thus far this winter...he may be back with a vengeance in 2008.

 

I don't yet know what to think. I feel that Detroit won the trade.

[Taliesin]

I don't follow the minor leagues enough to comment except that my diehard Tigers friend thinks they got screwed. He doesn't like it at all. I think they overpaid. I think Willis is a throw-in and will be nothing but a I should wear my hat straight gangsta type of guy who would have commanded much more 2 years ago. I think he gets ass-raped in the A.L. Miggy has never seen anything but weak N.L. pitching and donuts. He's slimming down on the Oprah diet. We'll see. I think he's a 1B/DH.

 

Florida got the better deal in the long run...but the Tigs could be dangerous in the short-term. I'm more concerned they've thrown a wrench in our deal. The L.A. angels of anaheim via ventura highway take a left hand turn at the boulevard now have a dilemma and some guys to move.

[rician blast]

I don't follow the minor leagues enough to comment except that my diehard Tigers friend thinks they got screwed. He doesn't like it at all. I think they overpaid. I think Willis is a throw-in and will be nothing but a I should wear my hat straight gangsta type of guy who would have commanded much more 2 years ago. I think he gets ass-raped in the A.L. Miggy has never seen anything but weak N.L. pitching and donuts. He's slimming down on the Oprah diet. We'll see. I think he's a 1B/DH.

 

Florida got the better deal in the long run...but the Tigs could be dangerous in the short-term. I'm more concerned they've thrown a wrench in our deal. The L.A. angels of anaheim via ventura highway take a left hand turn at the boulevard now have a dilemma and some guys to move.

 

Jim Leyritz says, from his viewpoint, the Tigers are the best team in the AL now. Not quite sure about that.

[BudLight]

I'm not ready to give up on Willis just yet. His best years were 2003 and 2005 where he had a veteran battery mate (I-Rod and LoDuca respectively). His being reunited with I-Rod coupled with the potent offensive line-up the Tigers now have established should prove to be very positive for Willis. I expect he will be improving greatly.

[ORS]

Wow. The Guardians may have to do something hefty to respond to that.

Aren't they rumored to be in talks about acquiring Jason Bay?

 

Deadly heart of the order with Hafner and Martinez.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Interesting note:

 

Nate Silver, BP, has posted Miggy Cabrera's 2008 PECOTA projection, including the shift from Florida to Detroit. It's .304/.381/.523, a 64-point drop in OPS.

 

FWIW, Mike Lowell hit .324/.378/.501 in 2007. Just sayin'.

[rician blast]

Jay:

Any idea what the drop is due to? park, league, division, weather, etc.? What are the key drivers such analysis would hinge on?

[BudLight]

Here's the rest of the article:

 

Now, that difference is a little more noticeable — a 64-point drop in OPS. It’s much harder for a player to stand heads and shoulders above the pack in the American League. Since 2001, there are 36 players who have posted an OPS of 1.000 or higher in the National League, as compared to just 23 in the AL.

 

But here’s the key question … does this make Cabrera any less valuable to the Tigers? Absolutely not. This simply represents the prevailing exchange rate between the two leagues. Cabrera will be just as valuable to the Tigers, even if he might not be quite as valuable to his fantasy owners. And if more players like Cabrera migrate to the American League, the gap between the two circuits is only going to increase.

 

___

 

Wonky disclaimer: this should not be read to mean that there is a 64-point gap in talent between the AL and the NL. The talent gap is big, but more along the lines of 25-30 points of OPS. The balance of the difference has to do with the fact that the NL is actually a better hitter’s league right now, especially for a power hitter, perhaps because it has a lot of small ballparks.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Jay:

Any idea what the drop is due to? park, league, division, weather, etc.? What are the key drivers such analysis would hinge on?

 

Building on what BudLight posted:

 

1) The guys at BP are reluctant to admit how big the AL-NL difference is. Yes, it has a greater impact on a guy like Miggy Cabrera, because changes in OPS are driven more by changes in SLG, and guys with higher SLG take a bigger loss if one models a percentage decline. That said, the 2007 Park Factors for Florida and Detroit are almost equal (1.07 vs. 1.05 per ESPN), with Detroit being 13.5% more HR-friendly, a big factor for Miggy. It's the difference in league talent levels driving the drop.

 

Backing off from the Pythag method of determining wins and losses, using the 2007 137-115 Interleague record I came up with an 8-to-9 percent difference in league quality. That's not 25-30 points of OPS--that's more than the 64 points that Miggy is projected to lose.

 

2) A mitigating factor is that Miggy played in the NL East, facing all of the "good" teams. There's reason to discount NL Central stats more than those of any other division, and there's reason to remember that being on a team with great pitching means that you don't have to face it as much yourself. Miggy wasn't helped too much by not having to face the D-Train last year.

 

All that said, the NL is more of a fastball league, and big sluggers are usually fastball hitters, and that lends credence to the theme of what Nate Silver wrote. I just want to point out that the overall difference has almost got to be greater than he's describing.

 

***

 

And my post, of course, pointed out that Miggy's new 2008 PECOTA is almost equal to Mike Lowell's 2007 stats...and some folks consider Mikey a better fielder than Miggy, too.

[Cocos Disciples]

Aren't they rumored to be in talks about acquiring Jason Bay?

 

Deadly heart of the order with Hafner and Martinez.

 

Peter Gammons reported it dead yesterday.

[Cocos Disciples]

Confused here. Is Cabrera going to play 3B or LF? I would say 3B because, well, thats where he is. The Globe says he'll play LF and Inge will stay at 3B. Anyone know the final word?

[.406]

I don't know but I'd assume they'd move Inge before Cabrera, unless Cabrera wants to do so.

[Cocos Disciples]

Someone, I forget who, says an Inge deal is inevitable. Makes sense, and that'd put Cabrera at 3B with a Marcus Thames/Jacques Jones platoon in left.

[das11209]

Tigers might trade Willis to Mets. Why? Mets don't have any trading chips left if they don't move Reyes.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2007/12/06/2007-12-06_lefties_johan_santana_dontrelle_willis_a.html

[Ray10]

Wow Tigers made a huge trade but I dunno about Willis i don't think he's going to be that great in the A.L Central he struggled in the N.L East last couple seasons and the A.L Central is alot tougher.

[schillingouttheks]

Wow Tigers made a huge trade but I dunno about Willis i don't think he's going to be that great in the A.L Central he struggled in the N.L East last couple seasons and the A.L Central is alot tougher.

 

Are you even remotely capable of constructing a coherent sentence though proper grammatical means? All of your posts are one long run-on sentence.