2008 Lineup

[Mirabellifan]

Yes.

 

okay. now i get it. thanks for clearing that up.

[cam780]

Ellsbury

Pedroia

Ortiz

Ramirez

Lowell

Drew

Youkilis

Tek

Lugo

 

If the Sox played Ellsbury in the leadoff spot during the World Series, they will have the confidence in him to lead off during the regular season. If Lugo rebounds you get the back to back leadoff hitter thing. You also have a tough lineup for most pitchers 1-7

[Taliesin]

Watch out Cam...you're going to get multi-quoted by the Bill James of the Internet by posting the exact line-up of next years team. And he will be angry. And dull. And he will smite. And he will lack reading comprehension. And will despise thouest who have a sense of humor and a sense of serious and who haven't spent several stints at Bridgewater. Mumbling numbers like Rainman.

[exsubmariner]

With the roster virtually set, other than a few MRs, it seems a good time to look at the 2008 lineup for the sox. I'm just curious as to where you all would put players in the lineup. The way i see it there are two approaches

 

Lineup 1:

Pedroia

Youk

Papi

Manny

Drew/Lowell

Lowell/Drew

Tek

Ellsbury

Lugo

 

Lineup 2:

Ellsbury

Pedroia/Youk

Papi

Manny

Drew/Lowell

Lowell/Drew

Youk/Pedroia

Tek

Lugo

 

Lineup two will probably be the more popular option, but lineup one would really allow ellsbury to utilize his speed on the paths, while we wouldnt lose any obp at the top of the order. I realize that ellsbury is the prototypical leadoff hitter, but the sox rarely run in front of papi/manny (rightly so IMO), but we would still have men on base with Dusty and Youk up top, and Ells could provide some flexibility at the bottom sort of like crisp did this year (except ellsbury will be on much more so the strategy would actually be noticeably effective). Anyways, i was just kind of mulling it over during a stats lecture and wanted to get everyone elses thoughts.

 

Ellsbury at the top, speed and obp!!!

[jacksonianmarch]

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Pedroia 2B

3. Ortiz DH

4. Ramirez LF

5. Lowell 3B

6. Drew RF

7. Youkilis 1B

8. Varitek C

9. Lugo SS

 

kinda lags a bit at the bottom, but the top 7 or so should be pretty formidable.

[riverside sluggers]

I could def live with that lineup

 

If Jed Lowrie continues his rise, and has an Ellsbury 2007 type of year... the 9 hole and shortstop could be his by the end of the 08 season

[BSN07]

Ellsbury type year? Theres not too many of those man...

 

Is Lowrie that close? Or that good to be a productive everyday SS? I'm honestly asking I have no clue. I've heard his name alot but never read much on him like I did with Ellsbury/Buccholz/Lester/Pedroia/Papelbon.

[riverside sluggers]

True not the kind of impact Ellsbury had in 2007 (once in a blue moon s***), even still a good followup to Lowrie's past season should get the Sox shopping Lugo by year's end

 

Lowrie has the same batting presence as Ellsbury/Pedroia. He makes the pitchers work, tough to strike out, has potential to be consistent .300 hitter. He has solid gap power. Last season he had 47 Doubles, 8 Triples and 13 Hrs (Thats 68 XBHs). On defense he's rated as average. But with more age and experience, has gotten better over the past year

[Jayhawk Bill]

The issue with putting Jacoby Ellsbury as leadoff hitter is his platoon split. Overall, he'll probably have an OBP in the range of Dustin Pedroia's. The trouble is that he's had a pretty significant platon split on the way up, and that Boston might be better served by batting him higher against RHP than against LHP.

 

Let's look at his OBP platoon splits by level and year, courtesy Minor League Splits and Baseball Reference:

 

Level vs LHP/vs RHP

 

2006 AA: .431/.371

2007 AA: .452/.589

2007 AAA: .303/.384

2007 MLB: .379/.398

 

The only exception to the rule is 2006 AA, where Ellsbury had a higher OBP vs LHP. If one looks deeper, it's entirely driven by his BABIP: he had a .447 BABIP vs LHP despite having only a 6.4% line drive percentage. Yes, part of that is his speed, but two other significant arts are that AA defense is worse than MLB defense and, frankly, luck. I've never seen an MLB hitter with a BABIP over .400 and an LD% under 10%. If it's ever been done, it was a pretty unusual circumstance.

 

In AAA Ellsbury learned to hit LHP harder, increasing his LD% significantly. I'm speculating that the platoon split that we see for his AAA time, roughly 80 points, may be the best indicator of his success in MLB. If that's right--and if Bill James's forecast that he'll be a .320/.374/.436 hitter is right--the his OBP will approach .400 vs. RHP and it'll approach .320 vs. LHP.

 

If Ellsbury's OBP is around .400, he should lead off. If it's around .320, he shouldn't, and Pedroia should be up in the first two spots beside Youkilis. I'd bat Ellsbury-Youkilis 1-2 vs. RHP and Youkilis-Pedroia 1-2 vs. LHP.

 

Of course, as always, YMMV.

[BSN07]

I don't know J, 1 yr he hits LH better, 2 yrs are very close and one he hits worse, take out the two extremes ad hes pretty much even on both. A math guy like you should have seen that:D

 

I think Ellsbury is the lead off hitter for most games assuming he plays like he has showed. Francona will tweak the line up threw out the yr as always so Pedroia might see alot of lead off as well.

[Jayhawk Bill]

I don't know J, 1 yr he hits LH better, 2 yrs are very close and one he hits worse, take out the two extremes ad hes pretty much even on both. A math guy like you should have seen that:D

 

I think Ellsbury is the lead off hitter for most games assuming he plays like he has showed. Francona will tweak the line up threw out the yr as always so Pedroia might see alot of lead off as well.

 

You know, I suspect that Terry Francona will see it your way.

 

***

 

But if you don't like my idea that AAA is the best representation, let's look at Ellsbury from AA through MLB in aggregate. First, just by at bats and hits:

 

Year	Level	AB LHP	H LHP	
2006	AA	54	21	
2007	AA	27	10	
2007	AAA	113	30	
2007	MLB	26	9	
	220	70	.318



Year	Level	AB RHP	H RHP	
2006	AA	144	40	
2007	AA	49	26	
2007	AAA	246	77	
2007	MLB	90	32	
	529	175	.331

 

That suggests a 13-point split...not so much.

 

But now let's look at walks vs. plate appearances. I've used at bats plus walks as a proxy for plate appearances...it's not exact, but it's pretty close, and it shouldn't effect the split we're discussing:

 

Year	Level	PA LHP	BB LHP	
2006	AA	58	4	
2007	AA	28	1	
2007	AAA	118	5	
2007	MLB	28	2	
	232	12	.052



Year	Level	PA RHP	BB RHP	
2006	AA	164	20	
2007	AA	54	5	
2007	AAA	272	26	
2007	MLB	96	6	
	586	57	.097

 

There's the big dfference: Ellsbury has a 45-point split regarding his ability to draw walks from right-handed vs. left-handed pitchers. Combined with his batting difference, it's about a 58-point split. The difference between that and his 80-point split I'm projecting is roughly the effect of his astounding, bizarre BABIP vs. LHP at AA in 2006.

 

***

 

But your point regarding Francona is certainly well-made. Francona favors speed to lead off, and I'd expect to see Ellsbury leading off most of 2008.

 

Even if I'd use a different lineup vs. LHP and RHP.

[das11209]

okay. now i get it. thanks for clearing that up.

 

It's actually not at all a bad thing to appreciate the players who hardly get any appreciation. More suggestions of user-id will be ILoveCora or GagneTheMan etc. etc.

[Mirabellifan]

It's actually not at all a bad thing to appreciate the players who hardly get any appreciation. More suggestions of user-id will be ILoveCora or GagneTheMan etc. etc.

 

i'm thinking about changing my user name cuz i'm not that big of a doug mirabelli fan anymore.

[BSN07]

i'm thinking about changing my user name cuz i'm not that big of a doug mirabelli fan anymore.

 

If ou was a fan before, there aint much hope for you...

 

 

J as always I like your post and can def see it from yuor point of view.

 

Another view is he has been pretty solid VS both all the way threw the minors.

[Mirabellifan]

If ou was a fan before, there aint much hope for you...

 

 

J as always I like your post and can def see it from yuor point of view.

 

Another view is he has been pretty solid VS both all the way threw the minors.

 

ya i just enjoy liking players that not many people like. but ya i think i'm gonna change it like tommorow. wait, i'm allowed to change it right?

[BSN07]

ya i just enjoy liking players that not many people like. but ya i think i'm gonna change it like tommorow. wait' date=' i'm allowed to change it right?[/quote']

 

Ask a mod.

[Mirabellifan]

Ask a mod.

 

well i wrote it here hopeing a mod would reply

[schillingouttheks]

You can't change it. You'd have to ask yeszir to do it, I don't have the power to change it.

[Mirabellifan]

You can't change it. You'd have to ask yeszir to do it' date=' I don't have the power to change it.[/quote']

 

well what if i don't change it. what if i just like make a new user name and stuff and just stop using Mirabellifan? you know what i mean?

[Mirabellifan]

so i changed my user name but i haven't gotten one of those stupid confirmation emails yet!!

[Cocos Disciples]

well what if i don't change it. what if i just like make a new user name and stuff and just stop using Mirabellifan? you know what i mean?

 

Don't think multiple user names are permitted.

[Mirabellifan]

Don't think multiple user names are permitted.

 

ya, but what if i never use this one again?

[Cocos Disciples]

Dunno, probably have to ask yeszir first.

[BSN07]

Yeszir word is bond... All hail Yeszir...:thumbsup:

[Mirabellifan]

Yeszir word is bond... All hail Yeszir...:thumbsup:

 

he scares me! he'll probably ban me....again.

[TheKilo]

he scares me! he'll probably ban me....again.

 

Here's hoping.

[Mirabellifan]

Here's hoping.

 

wow, that was pretty mean.