Cy Young Watch

[Thumper]

Such ********.

 

Both pitchers are great, no denying that. Just would have thought, nay, hoped it was gonna go to Beckett. He's #1 on my ballot.

[TheKilo]

I don't agree.

 

http://philsox/spieles.com/images/sabvbeckett.jpghttp://philsox.spieles.com/images/sabvbeckett.jpg

 

And what's more, going into the ALCS, every talking head outside of Ohio proper had Beckett ahead, including many who vote. So what the hell was it they saw in the ALCS (which shouldn't be considered anyway) that would make ANYONE believe that Sabathia was a better pitcher than Beckett?

 

If you want to cherry pick stats, we can do so.

 

[table]Pitcher|Wins|IP|K/9|K/BB|BAA|ERA|WHIP|CG|WARP3|Pitching Win Shares|VORP

Beckett|20|200.2|8.7|4.85|.245|3.27|1.14|1|8.6|18.6|58.6

Sabathia|19|241|7.8|5.65|.259|3.21|1.14|4|9.5|23.7|65.2[/table]

[TheKilo]

There's two sides to that coin. Sure, Sabathia pitched more innings and that may have effected his post season. On the other hand, that means he needed more appearances that Beckett to rack up a win total that was still one shy of Beckett.

 

And like many have mentioned, the post season isn't supposed to factor in.

 

That wasn't my point. I'll ignore the wins because it's entirely a team dependent statistic, but what if Sabathia had Papelbon closing for him instead of 5.00+ ERA Borowski?

 

RE: The playoffs, I was making a point to TW101 who said performances in the playoffs should be included. Sabathia threw 40 more innings than Beckett...you can't tell me it doesn't have a factor with the way he pitched (control issues, etc.).

 

Sabathia was the better pitcher during the regular season. Period.

[playjacoby46]

man this is ridiculous. sabathia is a great pitcher, but beckett was better this yr. he was so dominant, and in many games was unhittable. beckett got snubbed.

[TheKilo]

man this is ridiculous. sabathia is a great pitcher' date=' but beckett was better this yr. he was so dominant, and in many games was unhittable. beckett got snubbed.[/quote']

 

No he did not.

[BudLight]

man this is ridiculous. sabathia is a great pitcher' date=' but beckett was better this yr. he was so dominant, and in many games was unhittable. beckett got snubbed.[/quote']

 

I didn't realize Beckett had multiple no-hitters this past season!

[rician blast]

Congrats on your, ahem, consolation prize, CC.

[TheKilo]

Congrats on your' date=' ahem, consolation prize, CC.[/quote']

 

exactly. Why are people so beat up about this?

 

Besides, the stories will be so much fun to read.

 

For example:

 

Sabathia went 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA and 209 strikeouts, pitching a major league-high 241 innings. Beckett (20-7) became the only big league pitcher to win 20 games since 2005, compiling a 3.27 ERA in 200 2-3 innings. Lackey led the AL in ERA at 3.01, going 19-9 and tossing 224 innings.

 

Voting took place before the postseason, when Sabathia struggled while Beckett pitched the Red Sox to a World Series championship with a string of dominant outings.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3108321

[mtbykr]

I agree that the award should be based on the regular season' date=' but the fact is that Beckett faced Sabathia in the playoffs. Beckett dominated and won both games, Sabathia got lit up. If Sabathia didn't pitch in the playoffs, than this comparison is moot. If Sabathia pitch well in the playoffs, as well as Beckett, the comparison is moot. But the fact is that Sabathia faced Beckett in the playoffs, when the games matter the most, and Beckett dominated while Sabathia got lit up. I just don't think you can ignore that. I guess I'm just surprised that wasn't in the back of the voters heads.[/quote']

 

The reason for voting before the playoffs is specifically to avoid this. The award is for the regular season, and despite people trying to be impartial.....i am sure things would have been different if they didn't vote till after the world series

[ksushi]

I will take ALCS MVP and a WS ring over the Cy any day of the week. No questions asked. Sure, there was an arguement to be made for Josh to win the Cy, and sure it would have been cool, but do you think that if CC approached him and asked him to trade hardware that Beckett wouldn't laugh in his face?

[Cocos Disciples]

Good for CC. He's a great pitcher, he deserves it.

[rician blast]

exactly. Why are people so beat up about this?

 

 

Right, there's no shame in not winning the award....after all, Clemens has won the Cy a record number of times right? We know what kind of post-season "warrior" he is. Beckett's WS Ring > CC's Cy, IMO...I'm guessing Beckett would agree.

[YAZMAN]

Right' date=' there's no shame in not winning the award....after all, Clemens has won the Cy a record number of times right? We know what kind of post-season "warrior" he is. Beckett's WS Ring > CC's Cy, IMO...I'm guessing Beckett would agree.[/quote']

 

+1

[riverside sluggers]

Sabathia can keep his Cy Young to cover his post season failures. Beckett will at least have his ring and his name inprinted as one of the best playoff pitchers

[schillingouttheks]

Congrats, CC. The writers got it right. Enjoy looking at your finger without a ring.

 

Beckett was worthy of it, but CC was the better regular-season pitcher.

[BoSox21]

Beckett faced better hitting lineups too

[Jayhawk Bill]

Beckett faced better hitting lineups too

 

I'll say.

 

If you rank the 44 AL pitchers with 150+ IP by the overall OPS of the batters whom they faced, Roy Halladay and Curt Schilling tie for first with .775 (OK, Halladay by a smidge). The AL East can be tough. Josh Beckett got the luck of the draw among Red Sox pitchers, though: Wakefield was eighth and Matsuzaka was thirteenth, but Beckett was only 27th out of 44 pitchers, facing batters with an OPS of .757.

 

CC Sabathia was 44th of 44 pitchers ranked. His opposing batters had a combined OPS of .738. Fausto Carmona was 42nd of 44 pitchers, facing batters with an OPS of .747. Both of the Cleveland aces faced unusually easy lineups over the course of the season. FWIW, Lackey was 30th, not far behind Beckett.

 

A difference of 19 OPS points between Sabathia's and Beckett's opposing batters might've subtracted a quarter-run odd* from Sabathia's ERA. If Sabathia's ERA were closer to Scott Kazmir's, not below Josh Beckett's, and if his record were 18-8, not 19-7, would it have made a difference? :dunno:

 

If one takes quality of opposing batters into consideration, Sabathia and Beckett look very close, Carmona falls out of competition, and Roy Halladay becomes a dark-horse contender.

 

IMO...YMMV.

 

* based upon regression analysis of 2007 AL team OPS and runs scored.

[soxfan17881]

Good for CC. He's a great pitcher' date=' he deserves it.[/quote']

 

Just for the record, I agree with this sentiment. I think that Sabathia is awesome. I just don't believe (strictly my opinion*) that he was truly better than Beckett this year.

 

*I have read all the other arguments and responses to my posts. You all make excellent arguments and I do value everyone's opinions. I hope you don't feel the need to repeat them after this post. I simply wanted to make sure that everyone knows I wasn't trying to make Sabathia out to be a schlubb.

[soxfan17881]

* based upon regression analysis of 2007 AL team OPS and runs scored.

 

Hey Jayhawk Bill:

 

I've been reading your posts, especially those in the The Beckett Deal Revisited (or is it The Ramirez Deal?) thread. I have just one question.

 

How are things at NASA?

[TheKilo]

Can you really discount the fact that Sabathia pitched 240 innings, or roughly 20% of Beckett's total? Really??

[Jayhawk Bill]

Hey Jayhawk Bill:

 

I've been reading your posts... I have just one question.

 

How are things at NASA?

 

Corrupt. Look at Lisa Nowak as the clearest example: privileged little girl goes to Naval Academy, graduates and gets flight training, goes neither to sea nor to a forward-deployed unit but rather to a squadron in Southern California reserved for men and women returning from arduous tours, misses qualification for Test Pilot School (requisite for NASA) but gets the same Master's Degree from Naval Postgraduate School, miraculously gets assigned after graduation to the base of Test Pilot School instead of going to sea or overseas, miraculously gets accepted to Test Pilot School to earn the Master's Degree she's already earned a second time at taxpayer expense, miraculously gets a follow-on tour to the same base instead of going to sea or overseas, and ultra-miraculously gets a fourth consecutive tour at the same base instead of going to sea or overseas, working in a DAWIA job that she's not legal to hold (that's Federal law, folks, not some Navy rule like "Everybody goes to sea").

 

All this qualifies her to go to NASA, fly exactly one mission during a decade in which she personally receives over one million dollars and receives training worth several millions more, carry on an adulterous affair itself punishable by court martial, and then attempt to drive from Texas to Florida wearing adult Pampers to commit felonious assault and attempted kidnapping. Significantly, despite the fact that the Uniform Code of Military Justice would permit either an extraordinarily prompt military trial or even swifter non-judicial punishment that could end her career, over half a year later she remains on the Federal payroll. She intends to plead that she was insane, but that NASA never noticed.

 

Given all of this, it is not surprising that NASA astronauts choose to drink before going into space with their co-pilots.

 

[/tangent]

 

 

Can you really discount the fact that Sabathia pitched 240 innings, or roughly 20% of Beckett's total? Really??

 

Roughly 120% of Beckett's total IP...but given the strength of opposition, I think that things become a whole lot closer. Sabathia pitched for an ALDS team, had the weakest opposition hitting of any qualifying AL starter, and he still didn't win as many games as Beckett. At some point the non-parametric stat of enabling his team to win has to be considered, too.

 

Sabathia is certainly defensible--I just think that Beckett is, too. :dunno:

[TheKilo]

 

 

Roughly 120% of Beckett's total IP...but given the strength of opposition, I think that things become a whole lot closer. Sabathia pitched for an ALDS team, had the weakest opposition hitting of any qualifying AL starter, and he still didn't win as many games as Beckett. At some point the non-parametric stat of enabling his team to win has to be considered, too.

 

Sabathia is certainly defensible--I just think that Beckett is, too. :dunno:

 

Oh no, there's definitely some kind of debate here. But when people say "Beckett was clearly better" or "Beckett got snubbed", it's not accurate. It's a toss-up, but the fact that he threw 40 more innings and was better in terms of WARP, Win Shares, and VORP...I really find it tough to make a convincing case for Beckett. At least, in comparison to Sabathia.

[Rdsxmbnt]

but the fact that he threw 40 more innings and was better in terms of WARP' date=' Win Shares, and VORP...I really find it tough to make a convincing case for Beckett. At least, in comparison to Sabathia.[/quote']

 

All three of those stats are are directly influenced from the extra innings FWIW.

 

I think it's probaly Sabathia who deserved it, and it has probaly been pretty evident for a while now. I was holding out hope that the voters love the 20 win benchmark but no such luck compared to the 40+ innings. A bit ironic that the 40 innings extra that Sabathia pitched to win the CY Young may have been the reason why Beckett was still at full strength while Sabathia flopped in the postseason.

 

It would be interesting to possibly quantify the batter quality faced however and see if the edge still remains.

[ORS]

All three of those stats are are directly influenced from the extra innings FWIW.

Right, and those extra innings, as evidenced through those metrics, do hold value. Qualifying the results by making it relative to playing time ignores that. Furthermore, assigning a cutoff point which we determine to be "enough" to be worthy of consideration is arbitrary. And without said cutoff point, then you can start making cases for Clay Buchholz and Joba Chamerlain. So, in order to avoid that arbitrary "good enough" point, you give credit for the whole season and appreciate the value of more contribution.

[BSN07]

I had a thought, not sure if its been posted or not but bare with me.

 

I was thinking that when these votes were cast, think about what had just gone on recently at the end of the season. The Sox stumbled a little down the stretch and let the Yanks with in sniffing distance of the Division. Cleveland was playing good ball had a comfortable lead and Fausto and CC were unhitable combo that no one wanted to face in a PO series. Stat wise Beckett and CC where pretty close in most categories, I think that at the time of the vote CC had the momentum I guess you would say. Because after there PO performances it was clear who the better pitcher at the time was. Maybe next yr if Beckett and someone else are close for the Cy Young at the end of the season, the writers will remember what happened this season. Just a thought...

[Jayhawk Bill]

It would be interesting to possibly quantify the batter quality faced however and see if the edge still remains.

 

A crude estimate would adjust VORP (a run-based stat) by the ERA difference I postulated for the OPS difference. A quarter-run per nine innings over 240 innings would be 6.7 runs.

 

Sabathia had a VORP 6.6 runs higher than Beckett. Adjusting his VORP downwards by 6.7 runs makes it a slightly closer race.

[VJCPatriot]

Beckett was clearly the better playoff pitcher. When BOTH pitchers go head to head in the postseason, and one is CLEARLY better than the other, then I think it should be taken into consideration. Without Beckett's contributions the Red Sox would not be WS Champions. CC looked awful and played a large part in Cleveland blowing the ALCS. That should be taken into account. IMO Beckett was the BEST pitcher in all of baseball in 2007, not CC Sabathia.

[BSN07]

Beckett was clearly the better playoff pitcher. When BOTH pitchers go head to head in the postseason' date=' and one is CLEARLY better than the other, then I think it should be taken into consideration. Without Beckett's contributions the Red Sox would not be WS Champions. CC looked awful and played a large part in Cleveland blowing the ALCS. That should be taken into account. IMO Beckett was the BEST pitcher in all of baseball in 2007, not CC Sabathia.[/quote']

 

Your points are well taken, but as it stands rigt now its a regular season award. I guess they will think its unfair to a good pitcher on a bad team that won't get the PO app. to count that in the voting process.

[schillingouttheks]

Beckett was clearly the better playoff pitcher. When BOTH pitchers go head to head in the postseason' date=' and one is CLEARLY better than the other, then I think it should be taken into consideration. Without Beckett's contributions the Red Sox would not be WS Champions. CC looked awful and played a large part in Cleveland blowing the ALCS. That should be taken into account. IMO Beckett was the BEST pitcher in all of baseball in 2007, not CC Sabathia.[/quote']

 

THE POST-SEASON DOES NOT MATTER WITH THE CY YOUNG. THE VOTING OCCURS BEFORE IT.

[Ray10]

I still think that Beckett got hosed on this one he should have won that Cy Young award considering he was the only guy in the majors to have 20 wins this season. But I guess the right man got the award.