Where will A-Rod land?

[Beckett95]

So where will he end up next year?

 

here's some options from the NY Daily News today:

 

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS: They need a major attraction now that they have cut ties with Barry Bonds, and A-Rod would be a natural as he pursues Bonds' all-time home run record. GM Brian Sabean only agreed to come back after being promised by owner Peter Magowan that Bonds would not be re-signed. With Bonds accounting for so much of the Giants' payroll, Sabean complained that ownership tied his hands in his efforts to build a team around him, and he grew weary of trying to fill holes with low-cost, free-agent leftovers such as Rich Aurilia and Ray Durham.

 

DETROIT TIGERS: Mike Ilitch replaced Tom Hicks a couple of years ago as Boras' go-to owner, getting expensive pacts for Ivan Rodriguez, Magglio Ordoñez and Kenny Rogers, so they must be considered players here. Detroit's infield would receive a great lift by inserting A-Rod at third base for Brandon Inge, but it's questionable whether Ilitch has the resources to do a deal of this magnitude with Boras.

 

FLORIDA MARLINS: Although Rodriguez's salary would eclipse the Marlins' entire payroll, they are trying to land a stadium deal, and the addition of Miami's favorite son could help them achieve their goal. The biggest drawback for a happy homecoming is that owner Jeffrey Loria doesn't have the deep pockets to make this an easy transaction, so he would have to get creative to make it work.

 

MARINERS: The M's have deep-pocketed stealth owners in Nintendo, which would like to bring A-Rod back to where he started. However, Seattle sources say they're not prepared to go all-in with a big deal like this. Attendance at Safeco Field has not been over 3million in the last four seasons, and the return of Rodriguez surely would put some more fannies in the seats. In order to fit him in, they would have to move third baseman Adrian Beltre, but that probably wouldn't be an issue since he is also a Boras client.

 

L.A. ANGELS: Although it's no secret the Angels are desperate for a power hitter, owner Arte Moreno is adamant about not tying up nearly a third of his payroll with one player. "It's not a good business practice," Moreno said recently. According to sources, Moreno also has assured Bud Selig that he has no intentions of being a player for Rodriguez, who has expressed his admiration for the Angels and manager Mike Scioscia for years. Moreno must also soon deal with Vladimir Guerrero, whose contract has just one year plus an option left.

 

L.A. DODGERS: A large-market team in need of a slugger and a third baseman, but Dodgers owner Frank McCourt probably doesn't have the resources to give Rodriguez and Boras the kind of contract they are seeking. Throw in the possibility that Joe Torre could become the new manager, which would be a deterrent for A-Rod, and this scenario becomes even less likely.

 

CHICAGO CUBS: Lou Piniella loves A-Rod, and the Cubs don't have a franchise shortstop. But they also don't have an owner, and they're not expected to get one until next spring. In the meantime, the Tribune Co. is under severe financial restraints from the commissioner's office, rendering them non-players in the Rodriguez sweepstakes.

 

BOSTON RED SOX: Whatever thoughts A-Rod had of going to Boston were quashed when he upstaged their World Series victory Sunday night. CEO Larry Lucchino issued a statement expressing his dismay at such blatant disrespect from A-Rod and Boras, calling it "kind of strange timing."

 

METS: Despite media speculation about the Mets being players and moving David Wright to first base, the image-conscious Wilpons are no fans of A-Rod and his off-the-field foibles, and would never commit that much money on one player. Especially a "24-and-1" type of player.

 

my picks the red sox, even though I'd rather Lowell, i think the Yankees are gonna go balls out to sign Lowell and the Sox wont match, they'll just replace him with A-Rod.

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont see him staying on the East Coast.

 

Here is a lowdown. The sox will be in on it early, hoping that the prediction holds true, that he is opting out and end up getting less. Once Boras makes it clear that the bidding has reached 30 mil, Theo will back out.

 

The Mets will make a lucrative offer to move him back to SS (which moves Reyes to 2b OR to the Twins in a package for Santana). Boras will use this offer to try and land a bigger offer elsewhere, as ARod knows that he is not a safe man in NY, with the Mets or the Yankees.

 

In the end, I see the Giants making a BIG run at him now that Bonds is off the payroll, but my money is on LA. They need a big slugger. They have deep pockets. And LA is kinda like NY but wicked gay. So he'd be good there.

[YAZMAN]

Mets

 

East side, West side, everybody's coming down,

To meet the A-R-O-D Mets, of New York town.

[das11209]

A better assesment with odds:

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/jon_heyman/10/30/arod.options/index.html?eref=T1

 

LAAA - 4-1

Boston - 6-1

San Fran - 7-1

LAD - 8-1

NYM - 10-1

CHC - 20-1

NYY - 25-1

PHILLY 30-1

REST OF FIELD - 6-1

 

I like it - but Boston ranks too high. I think he pissed of lot of people with the bad timing of opt-out that may or may not impact the business decision.

[Jayhawk Bill]

While I'm far from certain, I'm speculating that A-Rod might be headed to the Cubs.

 

Remember this discredited rumor?

 

Alex Rodriguez may redefine the term "franchise player," but his agent denies a report that he might soon become a franchise owner.

 

New York Magazine reported on Sunday that the Yankees third baseman could end up with the Chicago Cubs next season with a blockbuster contract that includes part ownership of the team. Rodriguez can opt out of the last three years of his contract after this season.

 

According to the magazine, Rodriguez's agent, Scott Boras, has already identified the leading candidate to buy the Cubs and has begun negotiations on a mega-deal. The publication's source says that the deal could reach $30 million per year over 10 years, with part of the contract deferred toward an eventual stake in the franchise.

 

...

 

Yankees president Randy Levine also responded harshly to the magazine piece.

 

"It's a silly story, and we don't believe it," he told ESPN.com's Buster Olney on Sunday evening. "However, if it was true, it would be grounds to disqualify the applicant even before he went through the process, because it would demonstrate a disregard for major league rules and procedures, and we're confident the commissioner would feel the same way."

 

Levine later said he spoke to Bud Selig, and the commissioner agreed with Levine's interpretation of the story, and its possible implications. A player can neither have part ownership of a team nor negotiate for future ownership.

 

(While I can't yet link to sources, check ESPN MLB news, story?id=3033203)

 

Here's what struck me:

 

1) Scott Boras was in no way restricted by MLB Rules from talking to either Cuban or Canning, likely purchasers of the Cubs from the Tribune. He couldn't yet talk to any team--but prospective owners aren't teams.

 

2) When Levine got word, he ran to Selig. MLB does have the right to approve or disapprove team sales for any reason they choose. After Selig supported Levine, Boras quickly pooh-poohed the idea that he'd talked to a prospective owner. He did not say that his agency hadn't talked to anybody--he just said that he hadn't spoken personally, and the media was satisfied.

 

3) A player can sign a contract involving deferred compensation, and that compensation could later be used, after retirement, to buy part of a team. It just can't be in the formal agreement during the player's career.

 

***

 

I'm thinking that A-Rod will avoid signing until the deal is done for the Cubs, and that he'll then go to the highest bidder. I further speculate that advance knowledge of a likely Cubs offer is what prompted Boras to turn down a very large offer from the Yankees.

[das11209]

The only problem with the Cubs is noone knows when the ownership issue will be resolved - might not be by next year's spring training.

[BSN07]

LAA,SF and CHC are my top 3 in no certain order.

[Jayhawk Bill]

The only problem with the Cubs is noone knows when the ownership issue will be resolved - might not be by next year's spring training.

 

I fully understand and concur.

 

Does that make a difference?

 

Traditionally free agents have signed around December or January, but there's a case to be made that a true superstar might do better waiting longer. Marginal small-market teams learned long ago that they get the greatest return for their talent in trades around July 30th each year. Once teams get into the season, their weaknesses become much more evident--that's when talent fetches its highest price.

 

In recent seasons one of the best starting pitchers in baseball decided to wait until the middle of springtime to sign a contract each year. Roger Clemens got astoundingly large salaries, culminating in this year's $28,000,022 contract, prorated to roughly $17.4 million for the time that he played. (Source: Cot's Contracts) To get that much, almost a million dollars per game, for 99 innings of 4.18 ERA is amazing...for Roger Clemens, waiting his time to sign a contract worked very well.

 

If Alex Rodriguez joins a team in May instead of April, but he signs a ten-year $300+ million contract, the loss of playing time will be a trivial cost in the greater scheme of the successful negotiation.

 

That's why I consider the Cubs one viable option. My somewhat unique interpretation of the story behind that rumor regarding talks between either Canning or Cuban and Boras is why I think that the Cubs might have the best shot.

[das11209]

Cubs will be candidate # 1 if the A-Rod is interested in ownership. An article in Wall Street Journal backpage today talks about how easy it is for a ball club( like Cubs) to pay A-Rod 300 million in terms of equities and not cash.

[Optimist]

As much as I'd like A-Rod to stay in the AL, I think he'll end up in Chicago...and I will thoroughly enjoy watching him become the new billy goat.

[TheKilo]

One thing about the Cubs is they aren;t afraid to spend money.

 

$100 million+ to Soriano, $75 mil to Ramirez, $40 million to Lilly last offseason.

 

Throw Mark Cuban into the mix and I can see him spending $300 million for ARod's services.

[YAZMAN]

Cubs will be candidate # 1 if the A-Rod is interested in ownership. An article in Wall Street Journal backpage today talks about how easy it is for a ball club( like Cubs) to pay A-Rod 300 million in terms of equities and not cash.

 

I thought I read here that granting a player ownership rights wasn't an option according to MLB?

[Jayhawk Bill]

I thought I read here that granting a player ownership rights wasn't an option according to MLB?

 

Absolutely correct--but there's nothing about a previous player getting ownership.

 

***

 

Something I just realized: Wrigley Field is a good home run park, but the advantage is strictly in the left-center field power alley (Source: Home Run Park Factor—A New Approach by Greg Rybarczyk June 18, 2007, The Hardball Times). Wrigley's rating up that alley is 122, the highest in MLB--higher than Coors Field or Camden Yards, the runners-up. If you check A-Rod's hit chart at MLB.com, you'll see that most of his extra-base hits are right down that alley--as are more than a handful of his fly outs.

 

If A-Rod wants the home run record, Wrigley is the place for him to go.

[Thumper]

I think he's either going to the Cubs, Angels, or the Giants.

 

I know the Angels claim they can't afford him, but who knows?

 

If anything, like Jacko said, the Giants are gonna need someone since Bonds is gone. But they may have some competition with the Cubs since they can use a hitter themselves.

[Gom]

My pick is the Giants. He'll sell out their park, and they have a good young nucleus.

 

LA...no way if they get Torre.

Mets....no sense if he wants out of New York

Red Sox...I'd love it, as he would cripple the Red Sox financially in the next few years. Next year, he'd be outright filthy though.

Angels...best fit for him, but doesn't look like Moreno wants that big time fiscal hit.

Cubs...if ownership was steady, very possible, but team sale makes unlikely

Yankees...if the old Steinbrenner was in charge, maybe. However, Yankees lose plenty of face, and all good will Arod built up is trashed. No way in my mind.

Tigers....a posibility, but not very homer-friendly park. 2nd best option overall for Arod after LAA.

[Jayhawk Bill]

An interesting couple of paragraphs from Jim Baker's piece this afternoon at BP:

 

Rodriguez on the Loose

 

While we're all busy wondering where newly-minted free agent Alex Rodriguez will end up, I have to think that his agent, Scott Boras, knows something that we don't. We've all made mental lists that eliminate more than two-thirds of the franchises as possible new homes for him, and then whittled those lists down further by considering the budgets and needs of the remaining teams. What we're all coming up with is an incredibly short list of clubs that can even afford to pay Rodriguez two-thirds of what he was making with the Yankees last year, let alone more. At this juncture, it appears that Rodriguez is more a holdout than a free agent. It sure looks like he is holding out against the entire sport because its salary structure--which he has been at the top of for the entire 21st Century--has not yet caught up to his demands.

 

Rob Neyer has discussed the possibility that, with the Yankees removed from the picture, no team can or will meet his demands, and that come Opening Day A-Rod will be unemployed. It's an interesting scenario, certainly, but I can't imagine Rodriguez's agent, Scott Boras, letting that happen. That actually leads to my point here: Boras must know something. Is there any possible way a man of his cunning would let his most prized commodity walk away from a lucrative contract just to lie fallow? Do we really think that Boras is starting from scratch here, that this is Day Two of Operation Find A-Rod a Job? No. My guess is he’s had something up his sleeve for a while now.

 

I can't say that Jim Baker agrees with me, but I can write with certainty that both of us believe that Boras knows something regarding A-Rod's employment opportunities that isn't yet public knowledge.

[LUGOforMVP]

My pick is the Giants. He'll sell out their park' date=' and they have a good young nucleus.[/quote']

No they don't. They have a few pitchers, and that's about it. Last place for years in a tough NL West division.

 

LA...no way if they get Torre.

Please explain this further. I know Torre put A-Rod in the 8th spot for a little while. Did that piss A-rod off so much that he genuinely hates Torre?

 

From what I've gathered, A-Rod is crediting the Yanks' hitting coach for his big season, and guess where that hitting coach will be next year... LA Dodgers.

 

Dodgers also NEED a 3B.

 

One important note is that most of the Dodgers starting roster is making close to league minimum (Martin, Loney, Kemp, Abreu, Ethier, Hu, LaRoche, Billingsley, Broxton) and almost all of the the guys making the $$$ (exception Pierre and Penny) will be gone this offseason or next (Kent, Nomar, Lowe, Gonzo, Furcal, Saito).

 

This is a potential lineup for the next decade:

C: Martin

1B: Loney

2B: Abreu

SS: Hu

3B: A-Rod

OF: Kemp, Ethier, Young, Pierre

Pitchers: Penny, Billingsley, Kershaw, McDonald (insert other starting pitchers here); Broxton, Meloan, etc.

 

Without A-Rod, that lineup is cheaper than the Marlins. LA Dodgers have plenty of $$$ to spend.

 

A-Rod to the Dodgers is such a no-brainer.

 

Mets....no sense if he wants out of New York

Red Sox...I'd love it, as he would cripple the Red Sox financially in the next few years. Next year, he'd be outright filthy though.

Angels...best fit for him, but doesn't look like Moreno wants that big time fiscal hit.

Cubs...if ownership was steady, very possible, but team sale makes unlikely

Yankees...if the old Steinbrenner was in charge, maybe. However, Yankees lose plenty of face, and all good will Arod built up is trashed. No way in my mind.

Tigers....a posibility, but not very homer-friendly park. 2nd best option overall for Arod after LAA.

 

I think the Mariners make a lot of sense for A-Rod. It has been mentioned that they have Beltre, but I can see Boras moving Beltre back to LAD (giving them the third baseman they've lacked since, well, Beltre), and then A-Rod returns to the Emerald City.

 

I have also read that A-Rod has put on some weight since he last played shortstop, and that he doesn't want to go back to playing it again. If this is true, then I don't see the Cubs or Mets making a play for him.

 

I think this will be a 4 team race between the 2 LA teams, the Mariners, and the Tigers. The Giants could figure in, but they will have to out bid the other teams by a lot, because I don't think A-Rod wants to play for an aging team on a downward spiral.

[soxfan17881]

I read something somewhere that I agree with... A-Rod will shy away from NL clubs because it would be a whole lot of learning curve getting used to new pitchers. I think that eliminates all the NL clubs on that list.

 

That leaves the Tigers, Angels, Mariners, and Red Sox.

 

Tigers seem possible, though I don't remember hearing them as looking for a power hitter.

 

Mariners seems unlikely since he's been there once already. What does that matter? I don't know, it's just a feeling.

 

Red Sox? I'm one of the crew who isn't praying that we get A-Rod. I think he'll be good, and for quite awhile, but there are two things that sour me on the idea of A-Rod in a Red Sox uni. The first is the negative vibe that comes with him. The other is that I see A-Rod as being a Barry Bonds in 2014 (or however long he's looking for). I don't think that he'll be a steroid whore and all that. I'm referring to the aging power hitter who's too old to play the position he's known for, hits homers, but not much else, and hobbles around the bases because he's to close to [insert infamous record here] trade and they won't release him because they owe him $30 million. I suppose that we could use him, at that point, as a DH, but I'm still thinking it's not a good idea. As for the FO, I don't think they want to tie up the dough.

 

I think we should resign Lowell. If we can't. and we take A-Rod, I won't be pissed, at least not for a few years.

 

That leaves the Angels. No matter what the owner says, the idea of getting that one last piece of the puzzle that will keep them from getting pounded in the ALDS (by our beloved Red Sox!) will be tempting. Most importantly, I feel like the Angels is the team where he'll cause me the most worrying. That's how things work out so often where my teams are concerned. (Clemens-Yankees, Nixon-Guardians, Cabrera-Angels, Damon-Yankees, just to name a few.)

 

So, I'm calling it a toss-up between the Tigers and Angels.

[das11209]

OK - my feeling is that A-Rod cares more about breaking Barry Bonds record than getting a world series ring.

 

From that point - LAD, DET, NYM, FLM should not be his favourite.

 

CHC may not work out for the ownership issue. He may not want to start another soap opera by going to Red Sox.

 

I just see Angels/SFG as favourites in both leagues.

[LUGOforMVP]

OK - my feeling is that A-Rod cares more about breaking Barry Bonds record than getting a world series ring.

 

From that point - LAD, DET, NYM, FLM should not be his favourite.

 

CHC may not work out for the ownership issue. He may not want to start another soap opera by going to Red Sox.

 

I just see Angels/SFG as favourites in both leagues.

 

If he's more interested in breaking the HR record, why would he choose the Angels or Giants over the Dodgers or Mets? Just wondering how you came up with that.

[das11209]

If he's more interested in breaking the HR record, why would he choose the Angels or Giants over the Dodgers or Mets? Just wondering how you came up with that.[/quote

 

OK - so I did a sort of park factor by HR and LAD came up before LAAA - so you are right. He will not go to Mets because Mets play in NY - enough said.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2007

[LUGOforMVP]

If he's more interested in breaking the HR record, why would he choose the Angels or Giants over the Dodgers or Mets? Just wondering how you came up with that.[/quote

 

OK - so I did a sort of park factor by HR and LAD came up before LAAA - so you are right. He will not go to Mets because Mets play in NY - enough said.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=HRFactor&season=2007

 

SF and Anaheim are both tougher parks to hit HR in than Detroit, Dodger Stadium, or Shea.

[soxfan17881]

Here is an interesting POV from a post at http://www.overthemonster.com:

 

By 0157H7

Posted on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 05:07:34 PM EDT

 

This free agent has long been considered an excellent player. He is also perceived as a clubhouse cancer, a man who has disrespected several teams (and their fans) by jumping ship to another team. He even opted out of his most recent massive contract, hoping to get more money and more years. The last time he made the playoffs, he struggled in situations where he was expected to carry the team. He seems distant, dispassionate, and self-centered, the epitome of the "25 players, 25 taxis" mentality. He'll bring down any team that signs him. Who is he?

 

The free agent is J. D. Drew, circa last offseason. When the Red Sox signed Drew, the baseball community erupted with venomous rhetoric against him. Drew struggled for much of the season, and at least some of his struggles can be attributed to personal problems - his toddler son was ill and received surgery. Still, his line (.270, .373, .423) was better than Trot Nixon's.

Moreover, Drew was one of the most productive hitters in September (.342, .454, .618, 4HR), and during the postseason. His 2-out ALCS Game 6 grand slam off Fausto Carmona sealed that game.

 

Drew was not a distraction in Boston. He was quiet and professional. Many of the predictions made about him proved wrong. Had the Sox stuck with Trot / Wily Mo in right, they would have received poor defense (Wily Mo) and anemic hitting (both) from the position.

 

I think that the Sox face a similar situation with Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod is accused of postseason failure, being a clubhouse distraction / cancer, and caring only about money. There is a lot of venom directed at him, much of unreasonable. The Yankees have collectively struggled offensively in the postseason the last couple of years - it's not all A-Rod's fault.

 

I'd be willing to sign A-Rod for huge money and many years (6?). He's the best position player in baseball. Without him, the Yankees don't make the postseason. Mike Lowell is a great guy, but he's also two years older and even his career year is a substantial down year for A-Rod.

Lowell 2007: .324, .378, .501; 37 doubles, 21 HR

A-Rod 2006: .290, .392, .523; 26 doubles, 35 HR

A-Rod 2007: .314, .422, .645; 31 2B, 54 HR

 

A-Rod provides us with a RH bat to protect Ortiz long-term. Taking him away from the Yankees kneecaps their offense, which will likely decline anyway (less / no production from Posada). It makes baseball sense, and positions the Sox for a second run at the division title.

 

Sentimentality would lead us to resign Mike Lowell. Lowell can really do better than the Sox, however, in terms of years and salary. He could probably get 4yrs, >$15 million somewhere, which is more than he can be expected to be worth. The front office disregarded sentimentality in their dealings with Damon and Pedro, and it worked out well. Theo should be involved in the A-Rod sweepstakes, and should sign him if the price is right.

 

I find this argument quite compelling. Especially since I spent a lot of time this year hoping for more from Drew.

 

Thoughts?

[LUGOforMVP]

From the Los Angeles Times:

 

The signing of Torre would end the two-year reign of Little, whose resignation was announced by General Manager Ned Colletti on a conference call this afternoon, and would make the acquisition of Rodriguez a serious possibility. Rodriguez, who opted out of the most lucrative contract in baseball history and filed for free agency Monday, has a close relationship with Torre.

 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers31oct31,1,3406925,print.story?coll=la-headlines-sports

[das11209]

From the Los Angeles Times:

 

 

 

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-dodgers31oct31,1,3406925,print.story?coll=la-headlines-sports

 

 

This is the first time I heard A-Rod and Torre were close. What next - A-Rod and Jeter were going to strip-club together?

[LUGOforMVP]

This is the first time I heard A-Rod and Torre were close. What next - A-Rod and Jeter were going to strip-club together?

 

Yeah I had never heard that before. But the L.A. Times isn't known for making s*** up.

[LUGOforMVP]

Rob Neyer was just on ESPN Radio here in L.A. and he said that A-Rod has a great relationship with Torre.

 

He said the two L.A. teams and Boston are the front runners, gave several reasons.

[Thumper]

This is the first time I heard A-Rod and Torre were close. What next - A-Rod and Jeter were going to strip-club together?

 

Jeter and Rodriguez prefer staying in at night.

[a700hitter]

San Francisco is the most obvious fit in my opinion. They have parted ways with their one and only star-- Barry Bad Boy Bonds. They need a star to put fannies in the seats. It's the perfect low pressure situation for ARod. If that town could embrace that scumbag Bonds, they should love Boy Scout ARod.

 

My long shot is that the Mets sign him after they trade Reyes for Johan Santana.

[schillingouttheks]

This is the first time I heard A-Rod and Torre were close. What next - A-Rod and Jeter were going to strip-club together?

 

I should have known that the "mystery stripper lady" in Toronto was just Jeter in a blonde wig!