Official 07 offseason thread

[jacksonianmarch]

I have a feeling that Lowell is a bit jaded after having to earn his contract kinda like how Posada and Mo were. Hence, I dont think a hometown discount is in order. And at the same time, this will, in all likelihood, be his last big contract. So he'll go for the most dollars.

 

Now if Lowell leaves and ARod goes to the yankees, you are in a similar boat that we were in. Do do you deal Coco for Crede? How bout Buchholz and Ellsbury for Cabrera? These are your options. You could go after Rolen, but after all the good vibes of a championship season, do you want a guy that has become public enemy #1 in both stops. And for the StL crowd to be on him, he must really suck. Hell, they put up with anything. And that doesnt even count his horrible injury history AND his loss of power. In a 112 game season, his SLG fell under .400 for the first time in his career (in a season he has appeared in 100 or more games). Put the shoulder injury and the loss of power together and you might get an even more pissed off, more injured version of JD Drew at 3rd.

 

The only option that sounds remotely possible and productive is Tejada. Still young, had his first injury of his career and typically, wrist injuries take a yr to get strong again. He's primed for a big yr and is on the market. The only problem is, the market will become very strong for him once ARod and Lowell sign and most likely would cost the sox at least one of their troicka of talented kids.

 

Then you could go internal. Youkilis played a fine 1b, GG caliber. But as a 3b, he might not be useful over there. Who knows. Then you consider adding to 1b from the FA market? Want Sean Casey? How bout Minky for a return? The 1b market is the worst I have ever seen it. So does that mean you bring up carter? And go from an infield manned by a 3rd and 1st baseman playing GG caliber to a butcher at 1st and a potential butcher at 3rd? Doesnt sound like Theo's MO.

 

As much as you dont like the idea of paying through the nose for Lowell, he is a team leader, and RBI guy, extremely useful in Fenway and endeared to the crowd. Eventually, Theo needs to break and see that with Lowell, the sox will likely be the favorites to win a 3rd championship in 5 yrs. Without him, they fall back to the pack, depending on who they replace him with.

[TheKilo]

I have a feeling that Lowell is a bit jaded after having to earn his contract kinda like how Posada and Mo were. Hence, I dont think a hometown discount is in order. And at the same time, this will, in all likelihood, be his last big contract. So he'll go for the most dollars.

 

Now if Lowell leaves and ARod goes to the yankees, you are in a similar boat that we were in. Do do you deal Coco for Crede? How bout Buchholz and Ellsbury for Cabrera? These are your options. You could go after Rolen, but after all the good vibes of a championship season, do you want a guy that has become public enemy #1 in both stops. And for the StL crowd to be on him, he must really suck. Hell, they put up with anything. And that doesnt even count his horrible injury history AND his loss of power. In a 112 game season, his SLG fell under .400 for the first time in his career (in a season he has appeared in 100 or more games). Put the shoulder injury and the loss of power together and you might get an even more pissed off, more injured version of JD Drew at 3rd.

 

The only option that sounds remotely possible and productive is Tejada. Still young, had his first injury of his career and typically, wrist injuries take a yr to get strong again. He's primed for a big yr and is on the market. The only problem is, the market will become very strong for him once ARod and Lowell sign and most likely would cost the sox at least one of their troicka of talented kids.

 

Then you could go internal. Youkilis played a fine 1b, GG caliber. But as a 3b, he might not be useful over there. Who knows. Then you consider adding to 1b from the FA market? Want Sean Casey? How bout Minky for a return? The 1b market is the worst I have ever seen it. So does that mean you bring up carter? And go from an infield manned by a 3rd and 1st baseman playing GG caliber to a butcher at 1st and a potential butcher at 3rd? Doesnt sound like Theo's MO.

 

As much as you dont like the idea of paying through the nose for Lowell, he is a team leader, and RBI guy, extremely useful in Fenway and endeared to the crowd. Eventually, Theo needs to break and see that with Lowell, the sox will likely be the favorites to win a 3rd championship in 5 yrs. Without him, they fall back to the pack, depending on who they replace him with.

 

I think you're talking out of your ass. Lowell is not the key to another WS title, good pitching is.

 

Rolen - no chance in hell.

Crede - no thanks, maybe we can convince Williams to deal Fields instead

Casey - not a horrible option, but well down the list

Minky - nah

 

The case could be made that Youkilis is a better option at 3B because of his offense.

 

Besides, there's a whole f***ing thread about 3B options.

[VA Sox Fan]

I think you're talking out of your ass. Besides' date=' there's a whole f***ing thread about 3B options.[/quote']

 

:lol:

[BSN07]

Jacko I've suggested if Lowell and Arod are signed is they wait. Wait until one of the LA teams deal for Cabrera. If LAA does, maybe they can trade for Wood. And if LAA does maybe Laroche would become available. Just ideas, nothin to back them up. We also have discussed a trade with OAK for D. Johnson and maybe one of there SP if there available.

 

 

Tejada will be a salary dump for the most part, they will want talent back but unless they eat a huge portion of the remaining contract the Sox will not deal one of the studs of the farm system.

[Beckett95]

rotoworld--

C.C. Sabathia (Guardians), Ben Sheets (Brewers), Scott Kazmir (Rays), A.J. Burnett (Blue Jays) - A group of top pitchers, all of whom have already come up in rumors but remain long shots to be traded. Sabathia and Sheets are both free agents after next season, while Burnett is likely to opt out of the final two years of his deal if he puts together a healthy 2008. Kazmir is arbitration eligible for the first time and won't be a free agent until after 2010. Burnett is the best bet of the group to be moved, though the opt-out clause should mean that the Jays won't get close to full value for him.

 

Possibilities

Sabathia to Red Sox for OF Manny Ramirez and RHP Manny Delcarmen

 

obviously this will never happen, but imaging if we could make that deal?

 

some other deals the Sox could make from that article:

 

Johan Santana--To Red Sox for OF Jacoby Ellsbury and LHP Jon Lester OR

To Red Sox for RHP Clay Buchholz, OF Coco Crisp and 2B Jed Lowrie

 

Rich Harden--To Red Sox for INF Jed Lowrie, RHP Michael Bowden and LHP Hunter Jones

(they dont say anything about Haren to the Sox, but im guessing any deal for him would be the same players the Sox would give up in a Santana deal)

 

Coco Crisp (Red Sox)-- Crisp became the rare regular to lose his starting job during the postseason and seemingly has little chance of getting it back, though the Red Sox could afford to keep him around as a fourth outfielder. A tough player to value, Crisp has had two poor offensive seasons in a row, but he's just 27 and he was a .300-hitting, 15-homer guy in his final two years with the Guardians. Also, he was arguably the game's most valuable defensive player last season. The Red Sox should hold out for a very good prospect, possibly a catcher.

 

Possibilities

To Twins for RHP Jeff Manship and RHP Eduardo Morlan

To Rangers for C Gerald Laird and RHP Wes Littleton

To Rangers for C Taylor Teagarden and OF Engel Beltre (i like this deal)

To Padres for 3B Chase Headley (probally wont happen now we have Lowell back)

 

they say, like every year, Manny has a chance to be moved

 

Tavarez and Snyder are mentioned, Moss and Lowrie are also on there

[das11209]

The Red Sox have reportedly offered Mike Timlin a one-year deal to stick around.

 

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo said he didn't know whether it was a major league or a minor league deal. We assume it's the former. Timlin earned $2.8 million last season and need not settle for less after his strong second half and postseason.

 

[das11209]

Red Sox purchased the contracts of first baseman-outfielder Chris Carter and shortstop Argenis Diaz.

 

That's the team calling Carter an outfielder. It's sort of like terming Rickey Henderson modest or Curt Schilling withdrawn. Diaz cost the Red Sox a 40-man roster spot with his big winter in Hawaii. There wasn't much chance of the 20-year-old getting taken in the Rule 5 draft based on his 723 OPS in low-A ball last season. Boston's 40-man roster now stands at 37 players.

[playjacoby46]

Am I the only one who wouldn't mind seeing basically the same team back?

 

1) Ask Crisp if he wants to be 4th outfielder, if not (which I'm guessing) trade him for whatever you can get. All this talk about packaging him for a starter is close to obsurd.

2) Give Shill a one year deal and pick up Wake's option. You can never have enough pitching.

3) Re-sign Lowell to a 3 year deal, whatever the market dictates.

 

yeah as exciting it is to make moves....im with ya, lets just bring the same team back for the most part. i mean, we can trade crisp, let hinske and mirabelli go if we have to, but lets basically just bring back this same squad. why not? best record in baseball with a ton of youngsters waiting in perfect positions ready to come up.

[riverside sluggers]

Nope, as teams in need of center fielders watch the free agent options dwindle... theyll come calling to Theo with intriguing trade options. He might even be part of a proposed package to nab Santana

[BSN07]

yeah as exciting it is to make moves....im with ya' date=' lets just bring the same team back for the most part. i mean, we can trade crisp, let hinske and mirabelli go if we have to, but lets basically just bring back this same squad. why not? best record in baseball with a ton of youngsters waiting in perfect positions ready to come up.[/quote']

 

 

Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

Irish soccer player and English football club manager Roy Keane

 

Complacency is the death of an organization, Bosoxnation07 talksox.com

 

 

Progress-forward movement through stages of development; continuous improvement

 

 

Change doesn't always have to be for the bad...

[.406]

Now that we’re officially into the holiday season I thought I’d go ahead and make a Christmas List for the Red Sox. Not anything outlandish like getting Johan Santana, just 3 things I’m hoping to see happen this winter and heading into spring training.

 

Red Sox X-Mas List

[Cocos Disciples]

Matt Clement is already a FA, no need to wish for anything there.

[Thumper]

 

Red Sox X-Mas List

 

Must you always advertise your blog in this way?

[RobZombie]

Some of the deals I am seeing here for Crisp seem very low. Crisp has value, he's a very good defensive player and baserunner which has been mentioned. He's not old and he's cheap. If he returns to anything resembling the player he was in Cleveland, he's going to be quite a valuable player for the next two years.

 

Laird and Littleton really isn't a fair deal for the Sox. Littleton, seems like a soft-tosser, and, Laird is a career backup. I'd love to do Teagarden and Beltre, but I don't think that's going to happen.

 

If they can't get an attractive deal for Crisp, I would keep him around. They have a rookie CF who may have to be spelled, and a LF that is aging and missed a month two years in a row. He's not being paid a ton, so the Sox don't have to dump him.

 

I'd be looking for a young catcher and young bullpen arm.

[RobZombie]

I'm not sure this is that rotten a day for the Sox. I think Nick Cafardo did his Boston media duty to put a negative spin on a story to get more readership. He's starting to listen to Shaughnessy too much.

 

I think I'm on record (if you count old posts on this site and conversations with friends) that I'd like the Sox to resign Mike Lowell, so this isn't spin because the outlook is bleak, but at 4 years and $60 million I'd much rather someone else take that risk. Some facts about RSN's new favorite son:

 

1. He'll be 34 on opening day. 34 year old players don't typically improve going forward. No matter whose age curve you use, he's on the downward portion of it.

 

2. Lowell's RBI and average total were both career highs by a large margin, and to a certain extent out of his control. Batting Average is dictated partially to skill but also partially to luck. Based on the fact that Lowell's .324 was SO FAR above his career mark of .280 I'd expect his average to fall off from 2007 significantly. Along with that would inevitably come a drop in hits/doubles/homers and you'd assume RBIs. Also, you can't accumulate RBIs of the 2007 Lowell magnitude without people on base, meaning if he goes to a lesser lineup (either LA, St. Louis) even if he produces another good offensive season that number will likely drop.

 

3. Lowell had some very dramatic home/road splits in 2007:

 

Home:.373 .418 .575

Road: .276 .339 .428

 

This suggest to me that those of us who were predicting that Fenway would help Mike Lowell (me included) were right, but those road slash stats are very close to his career numbers: .280/.344/.468 which to me is a much better indication of his true ability. Put him in LA, Atlanta, St. Louis, or even NY and these are the types of numbers he'd put up. Decent? Sure, but worth $15 million? It's even laughable that he'd be considered a productive first baseman 4 years from now with those types of numbers.

 

Now, some things that aren't necessarily fact but should be taken into consideration:

 

Mike Lowell has a reputation for being a gold glove caliber third baseman. I admit, watching this guy play makes me glad he's on "our side." That having been said, some of the more sophisticated defensive metrics rank him at the bottom of the MAJORS in defense at third base. The Fielding Bible (a fascinating read BTW for folks who like numbers and over-analyzing baseball) and those who put the data together for it hired people to watch every single Major League baseball game over the course of 3 years and log where every single ball was hit. Read the book for more details, but they basically rate Mike Lowell as being very good at fielding bunts (probably the best in the league) and one of the best at fielding balls down the line (or to his right). Of course it's difficult to tell how much of that is good fielding and how much is good defensive placement, but the numbers suggest that he is in the lower third of third baseman at fielding balls right at him and to his left.

 

Another defensive Metric (called SAFE) developed by Shane Jensen (method explained here: http://stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~stjensen/research/safe.html ) rates Lowell as a very poor defensive third baseman.

 

Typically a good sign of a good conclusion is the fact that you can get the same result using different methods. OF COURSE, any of these methods have inherant flaws and they are not gospel, but perhaps us fans (and I'm guilty of it too at times) take what we see on face value and overrate/underrate players-- and there's a pretty good chance Mike Lowell isn't the golden boy we make him out to be.

 

Will I be happy if the Sox resign Lowell-- sure... if they do it AT THE RIGHT PRICE. If Mikey can get $60 million over 4 years from the another team, I'd give him a congratulatory phone call, thanking him for his service and let him walk away. There's no evidence I've seen anywhere to suggest that Mike Lowell is a superstar player capable of earning $15 million per for 4 years. I'd even walk away from 3 years and $45 if I were the Red Sox. Luckily, Theo and his team are not only smarter than me, but they also spend a lot more time and have a lot more resources than I do to make the correct decision, but I would not be surprised in the slightest if the Sox let Lowell walk here... and I wouldn't blame either party one bit.

 

Regarding the defensive metrics, Lowell made a lot of errors early in the year but corrected that mostly later in the year. Even with offensive metrics, seven extra hits can greatly skew your numbers. With defensive statistics, there are fewer chances so seven errors may skew the numbers even more.

 

From what I've noticed, his range is not oustanding but his instincts, and hands are great.

[schillingouttheks]

Must you always advertise your blog in this way?

 

I sent him/her a nice, heart-warming PM.

[Jayhawk Bill]

Now, some things that aren't necessarily fact but should be taken into consideration:

 

Mike Lowell has a reputation for being a gold glove caliber third baseman. I admit, watching this guy play makes me glad he's on "our side." That having been said, some of the more sophisticated defensive metrics rank him at the bottom of the MAJORS in defense at third base. The Fielding Bible (a fascinating read BTW for folks who like numbers and over-analyzing baseball) and those who put the data together for it hired people to watch every single Major League baseball game over the course of 3 years and log where every single ball was hit. Read the book for more details, but they basically rate Mike Lowell as being very good at fielding bunts (probably the best in the league) and one of the best at fielding balls down the line (or to his right). Of course it's difficult to tell how much of that is good fielding and how much is good defensive placement, but the numbers suggest that he is in the lower third of third baseman at fielding balls right at him and to his left.

 

Another defensive Metric (called SAFE) developed by Shane Jensen (method explained here: http://stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~stjensen/research/safe.html ) rates Lowell as a very poor defensive third baseman.

 

Typically a good sign of a good conclusion is the fact that you can get the same result using different methods. OF COURSE, any of these methods have inherant flaws and they are not gospel, but perhaps us fans (and I'm guilty of it too at times) take what we see on face value and overrate/underrate players-- and there's a pretty good chance Mike Lowell isn't the golden boy we make him out to be.

 

OK, I missed this post the first time around. When RobZombie quoted it, I took a moment and checked to see what Shane Jensen had against Mike Lowell.

 

Here's what I deduced:

 

1) SAFE is a ZR-type stat. There are two types of fielding stats, those that count accomplishments and those that look at rates. SAFE looks at rates.

 

2) The years covered were 2002-2005. Lowell's years in Boston were excluded from the analysis.

 

In his last four years in Florida, Mike Lowell made "lots" of plays every year except 2003, where almost every metric shows him to be below average. The other years the Marlins' ground-ball pitching staff made both Mike Lowell and Alex Gonzalez look like Gold Glove-caliber fielders despite mediocre Zone Ratings. Both men excelled in double plays started, a factor not considered in most fielding metrics, but in other areas they were roughly average in rate stats, albeit superior in counting stats.

 

In 2005, two things happened: Mike Lowell stopped taking steroids*, and he won his first Gold Glove. His range increased as his power hitting numbers dropped. The difference in 2005 was marginal, but his rate of starting double plays skyrocketed by over 40%, suggesting improved quickness. In 2006, and again in 2007, Mike Lowell was rated third in MLB by RZR. In previous years, even 2005, he had been below-average in RZR. The big shift suggests a change in capability--a change not reflected in Shane Jensen's SAFE, which ends in 2005.

 

I agree that Lowell is better at the aspects of defense detailed above, bunts and drives down the line. I disagree that he's below-average as a third baseman: looking at 2006-2007, he's among the better defenders at the hot corner.

 

 

 

 

 

 

* With the start of steroid testing in 2005, Mike Lowell requested, and was denied, a theraputic use exemption to allow him to continue taking medically prescribed steroids that he had been taking since his cancer surgery.

[das11209]

I know it is hard to believe - but there are other news apart from Santana.

 

Red Sox offered arbitration to RHP Eric Gagne and RHP Mike Timlin; declined to offer arbitration to outfielder Bobby Kielty, first baseman Eric Hinske, catcher Doug Mirabelli, shortstop Royce Clayton and RHP Matt Clement.

 

Timlin's deal hasn't been finalized, so the Red Sox will go through the formalities. Gagne and Timlin can both bring back supplemental first-round picks, but none of the others could. It's still possible that Kielty will be invited back as a reserve outfielder, though he probably wants to see if Coco Crisp is traded before he signs on.

 

[das11209]

Red Sox signed outfielder Jon Van Every to a one-year contract.

 

Van Every, who just turned 28, became a minor league free agent after hitting .344/.416/.583 in 151 AB for Double-A Akron and .272/.370/.468 for Triple-A Buffalo last season. The Red Sox will be a little short of left-handed-hitting outfield depth, assuming that they trade Coco Crisp, so Van Every will be nice to have stashed away in Triple-A. Still, he's not a very good bet to have a meaningful career as a reserve outfielder.

I have no clue who this guy is

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2007/11/papelbon_likes.html

 

Papelbon would like a long term contract to happen before spring training, he will be available for arbitration after the 08 season

[TheKilo]

Signing Papelbon to any sort of long term contract is not a prudent business move right now, IMO.

 

Let him prove his shoulder is healthy for more than one season. Besides, he's gotta play by the rules for the way salaries are set up.

[MANNYHOF24]

Signing Papelbon to any sort of long term contract is not a prudent business move right now, IMO.

 

Let him prove his shoulder is healthy for more than one season. Besides, he's gotta play by the rules for the way salaries are set up.

 

I agree in theory, but you also don't want to get into a situation where Papelbon becomes unhappy with the FO.

[ksushi]

Yeah, let him go to arbitration, down the road look to buy him out of a year or two of free agency. Now isn't the time.

 

EDIT - He doesn't have anything to be unhappy about or anyone to be unhappy at. Papelbon (and certain relatives) loves to talk about how unfair it is that some players get paid very little while comporable veterans get paid millions of dollars. I'm sorry, but thats the nature of the beast. Nobody makes big money in their first few years in the league (except DiceK, but he throws a gyroball) its the nature of the beast. Let him be upset all he wants. He is 26 and raking in over 400K a year. Cry me a river.

[TheKilo]

I agree in theory' date=' but you also don't want to get into a situation where Papelbon becomes unhappy with the FO.[/quote']

 

In short, too f***ing bad.

 

I didn't necessarily say wait him out til arb (I think he's eligible in '09, not '08), but locking him up long term when they don't have to, especially with the issues he had with his shoulders in '06, is a bad baseball decision.

[Thumper]

Who's better to give up for Santana?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3138088

 

EDIT: Wrong thread, but it's still part of the off-season I suppose.

[TheKilo]

Ellsbury now represented by Boras (LOL)

 

11:32 p.m., from Jerry Crasnick

• Scott Boras has apparently recovered from the sting of losing longtime client Kenny Rogers. According to two sources at the winter meetings, Red Sox outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury has dropped agent Joe Urbon and is now represented by Boras. Diamondbacks pitcher Micah Owings also recently signed on with Boras' group.

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3132311&name=winter_meetings

[das11209]

The Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox are likely to sign the rehabbing Brendan Donnelly to a multi-year contract.

 

Donnelly may miss the entire 2008 season following Tommy John surgery, so inking him for multiple years is a way for the Red Sox to potentially receive some value if they can get him healthy. Donnelly might be 37 years old by the time he pitches again, so there's more risk involved than a typical rehab project.

[das11209]

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein said he's yet to field any calls about Manny Ramirez this winter.

 

"I think teams realize that Manny is very happy to be a Red Sox," he said. Ramirez requested trades each of the last two offseasons.

[example1]

 

I like that move, resigning Donnelly. He looked pretty effective and would certainly be the type of pitcher the Sox would have to go after anyway, so why not? :dunno: Seems smart to me.

[das11209]

Coco Crisp's agent said Thursday that his client expects to start in 2008 whether it's with the Red Sox or another team.

 

"Covelli understands the situation, but being in a situation where he would be looking over his shoulder at [Jacoby] Ellsbury would be unacceptable," agent Steve Comte said. "He certainly doesn’t see himself as a fourth outfielder." Unless the Red Sox deal away Ellsbury in a package for Johan Santana or Erik Bedard, they seem likely to trade Crisp. In addition to the Twins, the Rangers, White Sox, A's and Braves are among teams that have reportedly expressed interest in Crisp

 

Jay Payton - part deux?