Wang/Joba/Hughes/Kennedy vs. Papelbon/Buchholz/Lester/Masterson

[TheKilo]

This thread has been a long time coming, folks. Let's hear some interesting discussion on the homegrown arms that will be keeping this rivalry fresh for the next 10 or so years. I think we can all agree that these would be the top 4 pitching prospects for each team. Who has the advantage here though?

 

CM Wang - An enigma to say the least. The guy has very unimpressive strikeout numbers and heading into this season, a lackluster secondary arsenal and yet he has won 35 games over the last two calendar seasons. Still, can he get by on pitching to contact in the ALE as often as he does? I'll admit I expected him to fall off a bit this year but he has been remarkably consistent.

 

Jonathan Papelbon - We know what he gives you as a closer. The question surrounding Papelbon is injury concerns. The Sox have done an excellent job in managing his usage this season, and he has responded by picking up where he left off last season. He's had a better season than Mo this year, and it has given the Sox a glimpse of what it's like to have a shut down closer.

 

Joba Chamberlain - The Slut's taken the MLB by storm, and why not? High 90's heat and a slider that just kills batters, he has given up just 5 hits in his 11.1 innings pitched, to go with a very impressive 17/4 K/BB ratio. The question is....starter or heir apparent to #42?

 

Clay Buchholz - IMO, the crown jewel of the Theo administration. The no hitter was hopefully a glimpse of what we could see out of this kid. Two plus off speed pitches enable him to get by with less than spectacular fastball command, but there is time for this 23 yr old converted SS to make that transition. Can he be a future ace? Absolutely. I look forward to seeing his progression...

[TheKilo]

Phil Hughes - The Phranchise has looked a little ophph since hurting his hamstring early on in the season against Texas, and that ankle sprain hasn't done very much phor his velocity either. Should there be legitimate concerns about this injury from the Yankee camp? Keep in mind, he is only 21 years old and seems to be having his growing pains right now, but could that ankle sprain have done more damage than initially thought? I personally don't think so, but if he doesn't improve on that phastball command (which I think he will) he could be in for a rough go of it.

 

Jon Lester - Houdini. Gets out of jams like it's his job. Took the Sox by storm last year before being shelved with cancer, makes a triumphant return this year but continues his maddening inconsistency. Not long ago he was the top pitching prospect in the Sox organization, now it appears he's been passed by two people. he certainly has the stuff to be a Major League pitcher, but his issues with command could be his undoing.

 

Ian Kennedy - I don't know much about him, and I'm not going to go off Jacko's sploogefests, but it seems that he has put together a very nice season at the minor league level. Where do Yankee fans see this guy, realistically?

 

Justin Masterson - The one we wouldn't give up for Dye. he's had a couple of rough outings lately, and questions have surfaced about his early success being a product of his slightly unorthodox delivery. Theo obviously sees something he likes, but is Masterson a guy to get really excited about? Is his future a set-up man or are they going to attempt to make him a starter?

 

 

And there are others I haven't even mentioned. Humberto Sanchez, Michael Bowden, etc. Who has the advantage in this arms race?

[TheKilo]

Personally, i view the Yankee's crop as better from top to bottom. Kennedy and Hughes are better than Lester and Masterson. However, I think the best pitchers out of the two teams would be Papelbon and Buchholz, so Boston may have the cream of the crop. Add in Beckett and DiceK, and things get even more level.

 

One thing is for sure, the next ten years or so watching these guys develop is going to be a treat.

[Soxfan1]

Yup the yankees got us overall, but the first 2 picks in a draft with these eight guys would be paps and buchholz. You can make a good argument for joba though. He's looking as dominant as Paps usually does.

[yankeessuck013]

Joba Rules: One inning pitched requires one day off. Two innings requires two days of rest. Three innings of work means three days on the pine. And he needs two days off before being asked to throw two innings.

 

Clay Rules: Shut up and pitch a no-hitter

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Joba Rules: One inning pitched requires one day off. Two innings requires two days of rest. Three innings of work means three days on the pine. And he needs two days off before being asked to throw two innings.

 

Clay Rules: Shut up and pitch a no-hitter

 

[yankeessuck013]

Hughes and Joba have shown they can handle the bigs, but Ii think the Sox rookies have the upper hand because of the surprise performances. Pedroia went from a sub-mendoza line april to a rookie leading .324. Okajima has been absolutely lights out in the role of setting up papelbon after he was signed basically just as a fellow countryman for dice-k. Ellsbury is going to have a huge future. In his limited time in the bigs, he has proven to be a spark with his blazing speed a great bat. And then there is Clay Buchholz who just threw a no-hitter.

 

Unlike some fans, I have faith in the guys Theo drafts. In April of last year, many people would have said Pedroia was gonna be a .250 hitter that was hitting in the 9 spot at best. Four years ago, Youkilis was a fat third baseman with no glove.

 

If the guys that you dont think will be quality major league players go another year without making any progress, Theo will get them out of there. Think Kason Gabbard and David Murphy.

 

If you think back to the Dye deal, Theo absolutely wouldn't give up Masterson. All I'm saying is Theo knows a lot more about the prospects than we do and I'm excited about the future of the Boston Red Sox.

 

That pretty much sums things up...Advantage: Red Sox

[yankees228]

Hughes and Joba have shown they can handle the bigs, but Ii think the Sox rookies have the upper hand because of the surprise performances. Pedroia went from a sub-mendoza line april to a rookie leading .324. Okajima has been absolutely lights out in the role of setting up papelbon after he was signed basically just as a fellow countryman for dice-k. Ellsbury is going to have a huge future. In his limited time in the bigs, he has proven to be a spark with his blazing speed a great bat. And then there is Clay Buchholz who just threw a no-hitter.

 

Unlike some fans, I have faith in the guys Theo drafts. In April of last year, many people would have said Pedroia was gonna be a .250 hitter that was hitting in the 9 spot at best. Four years ago, Youkilis was a fat third baseman with no glove.

 

If the guys that you dont think will be quality major league players go another year without making any progress, Theo will get them out of there. Think Kason Gabbard and David Murphy.

 

If you think back to the Dye deal, Theo absolutely wouldn't give up Masterson. All I'm saying is Theo knows a lot more about the prospects than we do and I'm excited about the future of the Boston Red Sox.

 

That pretty much sums things up...Advantage: Red Sox

 

This thread was about the pitchers who were listed (not Pedroia, Okajima, and Ellsbury). If you want to discuss positional players and non-farm system products, then we would have to bring up guys such as Cano and Cabrera to make a fair judgement. I don't see how you can say advantage Red Sox without even bringing up the Yankee guys besides the first sentence.

[TheKilo]

Hughes and Joba have shown they can handle the bigs, but Ii think the Sox rookies have the upper hand because of the surprise performances. Pedroia went from a sub-mendoza line april to a rookie leading .324. Okajima has been absolutely lights out in the role of setting up papelbon after he was signed basically just as a fellow countryman for dice-k. Ellsbury is going to have a huge future. In his limited time in the bigs, he has proven to be a spark with his blazing speed a great bat. And then there is Clay Buchholz who just threw a no-hitter.

 

Unlike some fans, I have faith in the guys Theo drafts. In April of last year, many people would have said Pedroia was gonna be a .250 hitter that was hitting in the 9 spot at best. Four years ago, Youkilis was a fat third baseman with no glove.

 

If the guys that you dont think will be quality major league players go another year without making any progress, Theo will get them out of there. Think Kason Gabbard and David Murphy.

 

If you think back to the Dye deal, Theo absolutely wouldn't give up Masterson. All I'm saying is Theo knows a lot more about the prospects than we do and I'm excited about the future of the Boston Red Sox.

 

That pretty much sums things up...Advantage: Red Sox

 

Yeah, this thread was made for the pitchers in mind.

 

Y228, what's your opinion on Ian Kennedy and to a lesser extent, Sanchez? I'd love to get some of the posters here who know the Sox arms to weigh in as well.

[yankees228]

Yeah, this thread was made for the pitchers in mind.

 

Y228, what's your opinion on Ian Kennedy and to a lesser extent, Sanchez? I'd love to get some of the posters here who know the Sox arms to weigh in as well.

 

I need to see more of Kennedy and I'm really looking forward to his start on Friday. I missed the entire game on Saturday (at the US Open), but from what I saw on the Encore, there is definitely promise.

 

From what I saw in his debut, and from everything I've read on him, it sounds like he does not throw exceptionally hard and relies heavily on his location. Like most pitchers, if his location isn't sharp, he is going to get hit (see second inning Saturday). On top of that, whether his location is sharp or not, he needs to get his offspeed stuff over, or it allows the opposing hitters to sit on his fastball, which is anything but overpowering.

 

He seems to have a common arsenal (fastball, curveball, slider, changeup). His offspeed stuff obviously needs work, but he seems further along with his changeup then someone like Hughes. That is a key factor for me, because I'm a big proponent of working off your fastball with a changeup. You can't argue with his minor league statistics, and his quick rise to the majors, so I'm very curious to see how he does the rest of this season, and how he progresses during spring training in 2008.

 

As for Sanchez, I'm not too familiar. I understand that he throws quite fast, but I also understand that he has a history of arm injuries. At this point, he's probably better suited to be a reliever, but I'm not going to make any predictions until I see how well he recovers from his arm injury.

[jacksonianmarch]

Kennedy is not a future ace by any means, but he is a well polished control pitcher with a very good secondary arsenal. He will be a mid rotation pitcher without the huge ceiling, but also without the big questionmark. I wouldnt be surprised if he holds down his spot in the rotation for yrs to come. He reminds me a lot of a younger Mussina.

 

Sanchez will be a bullpen arm come next yr, but he is a question mark kind of guy. He has the capability to get a sinking fastball into the high 90s and already has a plus out pitch. His issue has been consistency when going deep into starts and the development of his changeup. Since he will essentially lose a yr and a half due to TJ, they may not wait for that change to get consistent. In short stints, he could be devastating.

 

Phil, well, you know how I feel about him. He is down on his velocity since he returned. The guns had him at 93 consistently when he hurt himself, and since he is sitting 90 with worsening control. If the rest of our rotation was healthy and the Moose wasnt sucking donkey dick, I'd prefer Phil to be shut down for the yr and get some innings in Hawaii this fall.

 

There are other pitchers who will be coming through next yr that are worth mentioning. Alan Horne could be a good rotation option or a pen arm that will get a look in the not too distant future. Mid 90s heat with good control and 2 developed secondary pitches. And then there are 2 guys currently on the shelf who could see some MLB time in the pen should everything go well in their rehab in Melancon and Cox. Cox was slated to have a MLB pen slot until he ripped up his elbow. Melancon was considered to be a top 15 talent last yr but everyone knew he needed TJ, so the yankees stole him in the 9th round. He is throwing again and will be outside that 18 month window by the time ST starts (he had TJ on halloween last yr). He is touted similarly to what Huston Street was when he was drafted, he could see the bigs next yr assuming his arm is alright.

 

For the sox, Masterson is considered a Scot Shields type. He has dominant enough stuff to kick around the minor leaguers, but his future will be in the setup role. Buchholz is nasty and is pitching like Hughes should have been if he had not been injured. Lester is a back of the rotation guy, but as a lefty with a pretty good arsenal, he'll be around for a while.

[TheKilo]

Buchholz vs. kennedy

[Gom]

The list, as listed, is much more talented on the Yankee side. Wang alone, is more valuable than the whole Red Sox list. It would have been much better if you listed Beckett as Wang's counterpart.

 

Kind of useless comparison, though. If you pick and choose who to add, you can skew any list in any team's favor.

[Gom]

CM Wang - An enigma to say the least. The guy has very unimpressive strikeout numbers and heading into this season, a lackluster secondary arsenal and yet he has won 35 games over the last two calendar seasons. Still, can he get by on pitching to contact in the ALE as often as he does? I'll admit I expected him to fall off a bit this year but he has been remarkably consistent.

How can you possibly call this guy an enigma?

 

2005 8-5 in 116 IP, 4.02 ERA

2006 19-6 3.63 ERA

2007 17-6 3.68 ERA

 

Has anyone actually been more consistant? The fact that he annoys you by throwing one pitch 80% of the time is irrelevant. There is another pitcher on the Yankee staff who made a career out of throwing one pitch. His name is Mariano Rivera. Maybe you heard of him.

[TheKilo]

The list, as listed, is much more talented on the Yankee side. Wang alone, is more valuable than the whole Red Sox list. It would have been much better if you listed Beckett as Wang's counterpart.

 

Kind of useless comparison, though. If you pick and choose who to add, you can skew any list in any team's favor.

 

Maybe if you actually read what I wrote or even used some common sense, seeing as all of these pitchers were from the respective team's farm system. And seeing as Beckett was originally from the Marlins organization, then adding him to the original list would seem rather stupid, wouldn't it?

 

 

 

How can you possibly call this guy an enigma?

 

2005 8-5 in 116 IP, 4.02 ERA

2006 19-6 3.63 ERA

2007 17-6 3.68 ERA

 

Has anyone actually been more consistant? The fact that he annoys you by throwing one pitch 80% of the time is irrelevant. There is another pitcher on the Yankee staff who made a career out of throwing one pitch. His name is Mariano Rivera. Maybe you heard of him.

 

He is an enigma because he has a history of success with pretty bad K/9 numbers. Now, try to keep up here, but if a pitcher is so dependent on his defense to make outs on balls put in play, then usually he's not having great successes. Wang, for 2.5 years now, is having sustained success without the consistent ability to strike guys out. Therein lies the enigma.

 

And bringing up Rivera is another good point because he failed as a starter with his "one good pitch" and had to be moved to the bullpen, but he has better strikeout numbers than Wang, which further adds to the intrigue as to why Wang has had success.

 

Am I moving too fast for you, Gom? LOL!

[yankees228]

Gom, Kilo isn't saying that Wang is a poor pitcher, all he is saying is that you don't see many pitchers who are successful that do not get many strikeouts. Therefore, Wang is an enigma.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, to be fair, if you want to evaluate all pitchers, you need to evaluate those that will be here for a long time. And if we use CMW as a cutoff, then Beckett and DMats need to be in the equation.

 

For Boston

Beckett

DiceK

Buchholz

Lester

Masterson

Bowden

 

For NYY

Wang

Hughes

Chamberlain

Kennedy

Horne/Sanchez

 

I have maintained that Beckett vs Wang is a split simply because Wang has now been nasty for 2 and a half yrs now in this league and Beckett had a s*** yr last yr and has been a bit nastier this season. But after that, it is debateable.

 

Matsuzaka has the pedigree and the record behind him of being able to match-up against anyone and right now, our guy behind Wang for the future is Hughes. Right now, that matchup is pretty far in your favor. Hughes has significant room to improve, but so does DMats, so the advantage is well in the sox favor.

 

The future #3 as it stands would be Joba vs Buchholz. Both have been flat out dominant. Buchholz with his no-hitter and Joba without being scored upon yet in his career. In terms of upside, Joba has everyone on this list, but in terms of polish, Buchholz has him. This is a toss-up for now.

 

The future #4 stands as Kennedy against Lester and this is where I think we have the edge. I think Kennedy is a very safe pick to be a good to very good pitcher in the future, while Lester could be anything from very good to Casey Fossum level. Hence, this one goes our way.

 

In terms of future #5, the yankees have the best arm and the most polished pitcher. Sanchez has the best arm by far, but his future looks to be in the pen. Horne is the most polished pitcher at this juncture, but he is also much older than the sox duo here. Masterson, like Sanchez, looks to be a pen arm in the future. This leaves Bowden. He has the most upside as a starter in this category, but he also has the furthest to go. For right now, this one looks like it ends up the yankees way, but this will all depend on how Bowden develops and what the yankees do with Sanchez.

[Cocos Disciples]

I...agree...with...jacko...?

[TheKilo]

I...agree...with...jacko...?

 

So do I, but Joba needs one more pitch to be an effective starter, doesn't he?

 

IMO, Buchholz's three plus pitches (OK, two plus and a decent fastball) mean more as a starter than Joba's heat and slider? Am I off in thinking this way?

 

Because of that I give Buchholz the slight edge.

[yankees228]

So do I, but Joba needs one more pitch to be an effective starter, doesn't he?

 

IMO, Buchholz's three plus pitches (OK, two plus and a decent fastball) mean more as a starter than Joba's heat and slider? Am I off in thinking this way?

 

Because of that I give Buchholz the slight edge.

 

The first thing you said is something that I completely agree with. Chamberlain is a perfect fit to be a reliever because he has two exceptional pitches. Don't get me wrong, I want him to be a starter in the long run, but he is going to have to develope a much better changeup if he wants to be effective in a starting role.

[ARod2212]

I want to see what Joba can do as a starter. But I really like the arms the Yanks have developed.

[jacksonianmarch]

Joba has a good changeup too, it just isnt on the level with his slider or heater. He had it to a point to where he could throw it on any count at any time in AA, so he is close with it. If our pen didnt suck beyond belief, the last half of this yr could have been all he needed to get that changeup into his arsenal. As it is, even if the changeup is a showme pitch, so long as he continues with the high 90s heat and the absolutely devastating slider, he should be fine.

[jacksonianmarch]

So do I, but Joba needs one more pitch to be an effective starter, doesn't he?

 

IMO, Buchholz's three plus pitches (OK, two plus and a decent fastball) mean more as a starter than Joba's heat and slider? Am I off in thinking this way?

 

Because of that I give Buchholz the slight edge.

 

As I said, Buchholz is more polished, but in terms of potential, nobody has Joba. When you have two pitches that are THAT devastating and you can throw 100 mph, there arent going to be many that can be on your level.

[TheKilo]

As I said' date=' Buchholz is more polished, but in terms of potential, nobody has Joba. When you have two pitches that are THAT devastating and you can throw 100 mph, there arent going to be many that can be on your level.[/quote']

 

Who has a higher risk of injury, though? Doesn't that have to factor into the equation?

 

Besides, I find it difficult to believe Joba will be throwing 100 consistently as a starter.

[BudLight]

Wang's success is based on two factors - his groundball to flyball ratio and the lack of HR's that he gives up. Having said that, what's even more interesting is the fielding percentage ranks of his infield defense over the last two seasons:

 

Cano - 2006 - ranked 9th in the AL

2007 - ranked 6th in the AL

 

A-Rod - 2006 - ranked 11th in the AL

2007 - ranked 6th in the AL

 

Jeter - 2006 - ranked 6th in the AL

2007 - ranked 5th in the AL

 

Does Wang make these guys better on defense? Do these guys make Wang a better pitcher with their improved defense? Questions that may never be answered.

[He Hate Me]

I love how some Bill James statheads seem to get purple in the face when trying to figure out Wang

[TheKilo]

Wang's success is based on two factors - his groundball to flyball ratio and the lack of HR's that he gives up. Having said that, what's even more interesting is the fielding percentage ranks of his infield defense over the last two seasons:

 

Cano - 2006 - ranked 9th in the AL

2007 - ranked 6th in the AL

 

A-Rod - 2006 - ranked 11th in the AL

2007 - ranked 6th in the AL

 

Jeter - 2006 - ranked 6th in the AL

2007 - ranked 5th in the AL

 

Does Wang make these guys better on defense? Do these guys make Wang a better pitcher with their improved defense? Questions that may never be answered.

 

Fielding percentage does not take range into factor, and is probably the worst stat of measuring what makes a good defense.

 

So I would say no, Wang does not make them better on defense.

[jacksonianmarch]

Who has a higher risk of injury, though? Doesn't that have to factor into the equation?

 

Besides, I find it difficult to believe Joba will be throwing 100 consistently as a starter.

 

these are young pitchers, they all have equal potential for injury.

[TheKilo]

these are young pitchers' date=' they all have equal potential for injury.[/quote']

 

Something tells me throwing 100+ and then a 90 MPH slider would put more stress on your arm than the average pitcher.

 

Besides, doesn't Joba have an injury history anyways? Like in college, didn't he hurt his lower body?

[jacksonianmarch]

Joba was fat. He had a tricep strain, which can happen to anyone. He never had elbow "tendonitis" or shoulder "tendonitis" which are typically bad omens for young pitchers.