The Beckett Deal Revisited (or is it The Ramirez Deal?)

[BoSox21]

Two years ago, the Boston Red Sox and the Florida Marlins completed a deal with the key components being one of the best young pitchers in baseball, Josh Beckett, and one of the top prospects in baseball, Hanley Ramirez. The deal, in its entirety, was done as follows:

 

The Red Sox get:

- Josh Beckett

- Mike Lowell

- Guillermo Mota

 

The Marlins get:

- Hanley Ramirez

- Anibal Sanchez

- Jesus Delgado

- Harvey Garcia

 

Almost two seasons have passed since this deal occured. Here is how the main players involved in the trade have done since November 25th, 2005:

 

Josh Beckett

2006 - 16-11 - 5.01 ERA - 204.2 IP - 158 K - 74 BB

2007 - 14-5 - 3.31 ERA - 138.2 IP - 132 K - 29 BB

 

Mike Lowell

2006 - .284 BA - .339 OBP - .475 SLG - 20 HR - 80 RBI

2007 - .305 BA - .357 OBP - .494 SLG - 15 HR - 75 RBI

 

Hanley Ramirez

2006 - .292 BA - .353 OBP - .480 SLG - 17 HR - 59 RBI - 51 SB

2007 - .341 BA - .394 OBP - .573 SLG - 19 HR - 54 RBI - 32 SB

 

Anibal Sanchez*

2006 - 10-3 - 2.83 ERA - 114.1 IP - 72 K - 49 BB

2007 - 2-1 - 4.80 ERA - 30 IP - 14 K - 19 BB

* Currently out for entire 2007 season with torn right labrum

 

Guillermo Mota never pitched an inning in a Sox uniform. He was sent to Cleveland in the Coco Crisp deal prior to the 2006 season and has pitched poorly in stints with the Guardians and Mets since the trade. Mota also served a 50-game suspension in that time for testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance.

 

Jesus Delgado remains in the Marlins farm system, pitching for the AA Carolina Mudcats. This season, he is 5-6 with a 5.83 ERA as a starter and 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 8 innings of relief.

 

Harvey Garcia also remains in the Marlins farm system, pitching for the AAA Albuquerque Isotopes. He is 3-1 with a 6.37 ERA in 35 relief innings.

 

The big question is, looking at this deal today, how do you feel about it? Which team got the better end of it? If you were the interim Red Sox GMs during the 2005-2006 off-season, would you have made this deal? Putting your Red Sox pom-poms away, should this deal be called The Beckett Deal or The Ramirez Deal?

 

Discuss.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Rewind to the 2006 offseason where Hanley was coming off of a meh 2005 season for AA Portland. High ceiling but disappointing performance after a good start in AA the prior season. He was the #10 prospect by BA in the 2005 offseason and fell to #30 in the 2006 offseason. Then there's Sanchez who was another good prospect, #40 by BA, but the third best pitching prospect in the system behind Papelbon and Lester. Now we were getting a 25yr old ace who was also a WS MVP, and for a team that needed pitching this was really a no-brainer. Hanley didn't project to arrive till around 07' and trading Sanchez also to get Beckett was again a no brainer.

 

Fast forward to the 2007 offseason, where it didn't look good from our side. Hanley skipped over AAA completely and won ROTY with more than 50 SB and an .800+ OPS out of the SS position. Beckett on the other hand wasn't a very good SP, his K rate dropped and his HR rate was off the charts. Lowell the "throw in" put up a very nice season also, playing fantastic defense and posting an OPS of .814. Sanchez had a nice season for the Marlins after skipping AAA (a move that I think will have terrible effects moving forward) however his peripherals were bad and not surprisingly he didn't pitch all that well when he was healthy this season.

 

And fast forward to now where the deal seems to have evened out. Beckett, after changing his pitching stance and working with John Farrell, is a legit Major League ace. He has one of the best curveballs in the league and an explosive fastball, but now he's locating these beautifully, his walk rate is fantastic as is his K rate. His 4.55 K/BB is among the league leaders and his HR is back in line with his career norms. He has all the intangibles also, he's a fierce competitor and can go deep into games.

 

Hanley is now one of the best SS in baseball, after a solid rookie campaign his offensive game took off even more. He's currently leading the NL in batting average, and numbers that rival in SS. His defense is bad though, bottom tier in the league, but his offense is all-star caliber.

 

Lowell continues to have an even better season, hopefully he doesn't have a 2nd half swoon late in the season here but his OPS is above .850 also and depending on what the Red Sox do with him, he'll net two draft picks if he leaves.

 

IMO it looks to be a win-win deal, the Red Sox got a franchise ace that will anchor this rotation for years to come (along with an all-star 3B) and the Marlins got a franchise SS who will be there for a while. I'd really have no problem with either side of the deal, but I like our side since SP is what wins championships, but I'd have no problem with Hanley either. Call it the Beckett/Hanley deal I suppose.

[Cityofchampions33]

Scary to see how much Hanley has progressed in two seasons. But overall I pretty much see everything rdsxmbnt pointed out, such as Beckett's excellent K and BB rates, as well as hanley's subpar defense. And as for how i feel about the trade, while Hanley has turned into a top SS in the game, Beckett has been one of the top 3 starters in the AL, and I take pitching over hitting anyday. Alos Lowell kind of puts this over the top in our favor I feel.

[Cocos Disciples]

Hanley Ramirez right now is absolutely ridiculous. Leads the NL in batting, 2nd in runs, 3rd in steals, 7th in slugging, 9th in OPS. He's the best player in this trade.

 

Josh Beckett has been the Red Sox ace this year after a rocky first season. 9th in the AL in ERA, 1st in wins, 8th in strikeouts, 7th in WHIP. This year he's been everything the Red Sox thought they were trading for.

 

Mike Lowell has exceeded every expectation in 06 and 07. Made the all star team this year, played a gold glove defense last year. On pace for 22 homers and 112 RBI this year, and has a .305 AVG, and an .851 OPS. Everyone should be very pleased with his performance.

 

Anibal Sanchez came up in the middle of last year and had a very nice 2006, with 10 wins and a sub 3 ERA. However this season he had a 2+ WHIP, got sent down to AAA and is now out for the year. Useless this year.

 

It's a tough call right now. Ramirez has been absolutely excellent in his short career, Beckett is a great pitcher right now, Lowell is a good producer, and Sanchez was effective in 06.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

I'll take our side. Hanley I think is the best player in the national league this year, but without Beckett we would be chasing the Yankees.

[ksushi]

Hanley is statistically the second best hitter in the majors right now and I still this was a good deal for us to make. Beckett gives us a staff anchor, and lowell gives us veteran leadership, a good bat, and makes more plays than broadway.

 

The concern with Sanchez was that he might have shoulder troubles and now he might never pitch again because of his shoulder woes...

 

So, Hanley is ridiculous, but Beckett gives us something that is pretty invaluable as a staff ace. Overall, I think its a win for the sox. We get an ace, and without him we wouldn't be sitting pretty with the best record in baseball.

[MANNYHOF24]

I take the pitching, however it would be nice to have SS all set for the next 10-15 years.

[MarkTaylor]

Mike Lowell has exceeded every expectation in 06 and 07. Made the all star team this year, played a gold glove defense last year. On pace for 22 homers and 112 RBI this year, and has a .305 AVG, and an .851 OPS. Everyone should be very pleased with his performance.

 

 

exactly...whitch i why i never got the "get rid of lowell, move Youk to 3rd/get Texieira" debate

[TheKilo]

The reason people wanted to deal Lowell before the dealidne is because for whatever reason, the guy hits a wall and his hitting falls off a cliff.

 

Someone needs to check the numbers, but I thought I heard somewhere he hasn't slugged over .400 in the second half in over 5 years, and that's awful for a corner infielder.

 

 

But as of right now, I rate the trade 55-45 in favor of the Sox.

[BoSox21]

I think the way you gotta look at it is that Beckett is a top-tier pitcher and Ramirez is a top-tier shortstop but obviously, the more valuable position is pitcher

[TheKilo]

Is it? What Beckett has done this year is very valuable, but Hanley is putting up incredible offensive numbers at short, a position that offense is not commonplace at. Beckett this year has been more valuable, but looking at the trade as a whole I feel Hanley has been more valuable than Beckett. Lowell being better than Sanchez has tipped the scales in the Sox favor.

 

Last year I would say this was 70-30 Marlins, but Beckett this year has changed that.

[CrespoBlows]

It's arguable that Mike Lowell was most valuable player of the deal in 2006. (Factoring in defense, of course.)

 

Beckett's really good, but Hanley's producing close to a 1.000 OPS, at a position where only A-Rod would touch those kind of numbers. I don't think he's the next Rodriguez, but he looks like a perennial .900 OPS threat.

 

Think about this, Hanley has a WARP3 of 10.0, with an FRAA of -6. He's got the physical tools to be a good defensive SS. If he ever develops that ability, he'd be without question the best player of the deal.

[BoSox21]

Hanley has been ridiculous but I think the Sox have a better record with Beckett than they would with Hanley right now. The pitching in the NL is generally worse as well so I'd be curious to see how Hanley would do in the AL. Could have a bit of a Renteria/Drew effect

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

What the Red Sox should have done was find a way to get Josh Beckett without trading Hanley Ramirez. At the time Hanley wasn't doing too well in AA and some other players might have been substituted...like say...Jon Lester

[SCM33]

What the Red Sox should have done was find a way to get Josh Beckett without trading Hanley Ramirez. At the time Hanley wasn't doing too well in AA and some other players might have been substituted...like say...Jon Lester

 

 

eeeeeek....i dont know if I throw Lester in that deal either Schill. I guess you have to throw some value in that deal, but I dont want to give up a Lefty who throws low to mid 90's.

[jacksonianmarch]

Hanley has been ridiculous but I think the Sox have a better record with Beckett than they would with Hanley right now. The pitching in the NL is generally worse as well so I'd be curious to see how Hanley would do in the AL. Could have a bit of a Renteria/Drew effect

 

so a .340 hitter in the NL would hit .240 in the AL? Hanley would still be one of the best offensive players in the game if he was in the AL, no doubt.

[BoSox21]

so a .340 hitter in the NL would hit .240 in the AL? Hanley would still be one of the best offensive players in the game if he was in the AL' date=' no doubt.[/quote']

 

thats not what im saying. if Hanley is batting .320 with 13 homers and 45 RBIs with the Sox right now and Beckett is being Beckett against NL lineups, Sox fans would trade Hanley for Beckett no doubt

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

eeeeeek....i dont know if I throw Lester in that deal either Schill. I guess you have to throw some value in that deal' date=' but I dont want to give up a Lefty who throws low to mid 90's.[/quote']

 

At the time Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, and Anibal Sanchez were the big three. Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez were our best position players. Throwing in Jon Lester and Anibal Sanchez would have gotten the deal done. Replace Jon Lester with Josh Beckett while having Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez patrol the middle infield.....nasty

 

I head the same argument from many about Jon Lester and the fact he can hit the low 90's but who cares? He doesn't hit the corners and at the end of the day (unless you can hit 97-100 on the gun) you MUST locate.

[BoSox21]

at the time, I had heard it was Hanley for sure and the Marlins wanted Lester but the Sox balked so they asked if they could throw in Anibal instead and the Marlins said yes but you have to add another prospect so they added Delgado

[Rdsxmbnt]

The whole deal was based around the Marlins getting Hanley Ramirez, either we traded him or we wouldn't get Beckett. Marlins wanted Lester in addition to Hanley but ended up settling for Sanchez. I know hindsight is 20/20 but there's no evidence to suggest that this deal could be made without Hanley as far as I know.

 

EDIT: which is basically what bosox21 just said lol

[RobZombie]

Hanley also isn't really a SS, from everything I've read, he's eventually going to have to move to CF. He's an excellent offensive player, but I'll still take Beckett and Lowell considering at the time that Hanley was dogging it in AA.

[rician blast]

Hanley also isn't really a SS' date=' from everything I've read, he's eventually going to have to move to CF. He's an excellent offensive player, but I'll still take Beckett and Lowell considering at the time that Hanley was dogging it in AA.[/quote']

 

True, this is essentially what it boiled down to. You make the move based on what you know/see at the time. At the time of the deal, HR was performing below FO expectations and wasn't developing as rapidly as they had planned. They had an opportunity to add a young, hard throwing future ace and did so. Good trade.

[SCM33]

I think that everyone is also forgetting that there were rumors that Hanley was not as good as he was touted and RS management was accused of talking him up to increase his trade value after his pedestrian 2003 season in A and 2005 season in AA. I dont think Sox management thought he would really turn out to be this good....instead they claimed he would only to increase his value in a trade.

[RobZombie]

There are many that credit Joe Girardi with getting keeping after Hanley and getting him to take the game seriously, which in turn unlocked his considerable talent. I think its possible that if Hanley stays with the Sox he's still in AAA bored, dogging it, and wasting his talent.

[Mr Crunchy]

we werent getting a 25 yr old beckett for dave murphy and brandon moss

becks is here for the long haul,hes very young still and hasnt had arm issues

the blister problem has been pretty much stifled as well

 

hanley couldve been here at 20

its been said that they kept him in the minors because they didnt think he was mature enuff and they questioned his conduct off the field

hes a superstar and an mvp in the making

soriano with patience and a better glove

 

it was win win for both and i dare say we get the better deal in the present with 2 allstars in lowell and becks and becks also fits their long term plans and financial requirements

he got 10M for a few years??

if he waited till the fall the market wouldve made him 5m per more i bet

anyways

you can say ""what if"" all you want but beckett is a legit 1 who has absolutle brass balls and no fear of ny or the big show

that is what this team needed at the time and hes only gonna get better

 

watching 2 shortstops the sox traded to the nl win back to back batting titles as our 9m per shortstop hits .225 is a painful sight but beckett and lowell have done us pretty well

[Gom]

This trade will go down as one of the top 5 lopsided deals in Red Sox history. Against the Red Sox. Beckett is having as good a year as you will ever see from this guy. He is not an elite pitcher. He is not a Santana, or a Halliday, etc. He is a good pitcher, but not one that will strike fear in the hearts of opposing hitters.

 

If I was starting a team from scratch, I would probably take Ramirez first, or in the top 3.

 

Look at this guys line:

 

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BA OBP SLG OPS

Season 115 475 95 162 35 5 22 62 38 .341 .394 .575 .969

 

As a SHORTSTOP!!!!

 

This guy is the prototypical five tool player. He can hit, hit for power, run, throw, and catch. Where you can say the overall returns have been a wash for the teams over the two years [they haven't, but for arguments sake, I'll say that] there isn't a GM in baseball who would blink for half a second if he could get Ramirez for Lowell and Beckett. I don't know when this guy is a free agent, but I would just deliver a truck full of cash for this guy. He is a bona fide star playing in a pitchers park. The Red Sox would have won the pennant last year and cruised to 100 wins this year if they had this guy. Imagine a lineup with Ramirez, Youkilis, Ortiz, and Manny.

[jacksonianmarch]

there are many scouts who think that aside from ARod, he is already the 2nd best overall player in the game. ANd he will only get better.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Beckett is not an elite pitcher? News to me.

[ORS]

I love the part about how this year will be the pinnacle of Beckett's career. More brilliant analysis based on a hope and a prayer from Gom. I guess we can put it with the other nuggets like Wang being the best pitcher other than Halladay in the AL East, Schilling being washed up, Pedroia never making it, and others.

 

That said, Hanley has blossomed into a remarkable player. Wish he had shown a glimpse of this in his time in the minors with the Sox. Oh well, hopefully they give Tejeda a better look this time around.

[jacksonianmarch]

Beckett is not an elite pitcher? News to me.

 

If you mean top 3 talents in the league, then no. But in terms of dominance on a dominant team, then absolutely. He, Bedard, and Haren will duke it out for the CY this yr.