The Red Sox should trade Jacoby Ellsbury

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I'm still not sold on giving up Jacoby Ellsbury....him and Lars Anderson are the only two non-pitching prospects I'm not excited about giving up. I'm not interested in giving up Clay Buchholz either.

 

Other than that...Hansen, Delcarmen, Gabbard, Crisp, Pena, Moss, Murphy, Bowden, Pauley....I don't mind that much.

 

I'm sure Theo has looked into adding Saltallsajskjdkns service. The Red Sox stick there nose in most players that are said to be available.

[EvilDonut]

Who cares if he ends up playing 1B. Youk can move to 3rd. This guy is a potential 30 HR hitter.

 

Jacko normally I would agree with the catching being thin deal. But Atlanta already has there franchise catcher, and a 1B. Everyone knows they have no where to put the guy. I think this fact would equal out any advantage Atlanta would have by saying catching is fairly thin threw out the league.

 

 

Salty at 1st and we could still see Kottras as catcher. And if he doesn´t work out the Salty can be the catcher.

 

I think you have to make this deal, Crisp,Bowen one of Hansen,Delcarmen,Murphy,Cerrano, Gabbard, Johnson, I believe a combo of these could and should get it done. Now only if we could make Theo think this as well....

 

Power first basemen are a dime a dozen. Catchers right now are like Cadillacs, and depending on Kottaras, we may have a glaring need for one. Theres no realson to give up a Ellsbury/Bowden for a first basemen IMHO.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Power first basemen are a dime a dozen. Catchers right now are like Cadillacs' date=' and depending on Kottaras, we may have a glaring need for one. Theres no realson to give up a Ellsbury/Bowden for a first basemen IMHO.[/quote']

 

Was going to say the same thing. If he gets limited to 1B his value to us drops considerably. Not to mention a CF with defense (at an extremely important defensive position), speed and an OPS north of .800 is way more valuable than a 1B with a good bat and lets say .850-.900 OPS. Now you put that at catcher and it gets interesting

[ksushi]

I'm kind of surprised at all the people who consider Ellsbury more valuable than Bowden. Bowden could very well be our Phillip Hughes. He's the youngest player in AA and very advanced for his age. Head and shoulders above where any of our pitching prospects over the last ten years were at his age. Papelbon at 20 was nothing compared to this guy, same goes for Lester, and Bucholz. Bowden is a much more valuable chip especially when you consider that he represents a much more rare commodity as a young power pitcher. Ellsbury is an outfielder... An extremely talent outfielder that could blossom into an All-Star... but Bowden could be an All-star pitcher, he has just as good a chance as Ellsbury of making one of those teams down the road if not better.

 

There is no such thing as a logjam when it comes to pitching. Didn't we learn that last year? Schilling, Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, Arroyo, Wells and Clement quickly turned into Beckett sporting a 5 ERA and a bunch of minor leaguers like Pauley, Gabbard and Hansack... You always keep pitchers.

 

Schilling is out after this year and in all likelihood so is Wake. That leaves us with Beckett, Dice-K and Lester for sure being here for next year. Bucholz will likely compete for a job considering he is having an amazing year and has blow 'em away stuff. He might be our systems best prospect since Nomar. Trading him isn't going to happen, definitely not for Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Clay is a blue chip and I don't think anything moves him unless you're talking something special... like an Oswalt or a Santana (read: not gonna happen). So that gives us four starting pitchers possibly in the mix next year. Papelbon might be an idea too, but who knows, thats a whole other debate.

 

Point is, a catcher with his bat is special. More special to us than a good CFer. If he has to play 1B... than I think we should pass. Lars Anderson is blooming into a very impressive prospect, but is years away, free agency can fill that need, or a lesser trade can bring someone in becauses banking on Lars who is a few years away probably not a great game plan. A 1B is not nearly as special as a CFer that has Ellsbury speed and potential. Salty catching for us is a totally different story. I would trade Ellsbury and Delcarmen or even Ellsbury and Hansen for him right now, hands down no problem.

 

CF isn't an issue. Coco has been a fastball hitter his entire career and since he got to Boston he can't get the bat around on 90. Today he looked like he was having a hard time hitting high-80's.... thats awful. That also doesn't just randomly to a 27 year old yet to hit his prime. So, either something is wrong or something is in his head... Which means he either needs to go on the DL or he needs to get out of Boston. Someone will take a chance on it. I'd like to see what his swing was like in Cleveland and whats up with it now. If I were Theo, I would make the move for Salty if he could stay at C. I'd call philly about Rowand and pay what they wanted. For a soon to be FA, even with the year he is having, we wouldn't have to pay through the nose for him. They gave up a beat up, nearly finished Jim Thome for him (pre-miraculous career revival) I don't think it would take much more than a Manny Delcarmen and a Brandon Moss kind of deal... maybe Daniel Bard. Rowand is my favorite name getting kicked around and I've obviously done a lot of drooling over it. When the Phillies fall out of contention and realize the highlight of their season will be hinged on whether or not Hamels can win the Cy, and has nothing to do with whether or not they win the division, this deal will gain some momentum especially if Coco continues to suck hard. Extend Rowand for his age 30-33 seasons? Add Salty... I'll part with Ellsbury and would rather try to hang on to Bowden. I just hope teams don't hold out for him like they did for Lester and Papelbon.

 

Anyone remember when Seattle wanted Lester AND Papelbon for Jeremy Reed? Yeah... look at Reed now. *pukes*

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

I'm kind of surprised at all the people who consider Ellsbury more valuable than Bowden. Bowden could very well be our Phillip Hughes. He's the youngest player in AA and very advanced for his age. Head and shoulders above where any of our pitching prospects over the last ten years were at his age. Papelbon at 20 was nothing compared to this guy' date=' same goes for Lester, and Bucholz. Bowden is a much more valuable chip especially when you consider that he represents a much more rare commodity as a young power pitcher. Ellsbury is an outfielder... An extremely talent outfielder that could blossom into an All-Star... but Bowden could be an All-star pitcher, he has just as good a chance as Ellsbury of making one of those teams down the road if not better.[/quote']

 

You are right....I think both players have a chance to be All Stars. It might just be in the best interest of the Red Sox to not trade anyone and keep the farm system the way it is. Currently Jonathan Papelbon, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia are huge assets to the major league team. Our farm system continues to get better and I still feel home grown players are the way to go....Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bowden, Hansen, etc.....could all make just as big contributions.

[a700hitter]

There is no such thing as a logjam when it comes to pitching. Didn't we learn that last year? Schilling' date=' Beckett, Wakefield, Papelbon, Arroyo, Wells and Clement quickly turned into Beckett sporting a 5 ERA and a bunch of minor leaguers like Pauley, Gabbard and Hansack... You always keep pitchers.[/quote']

 

Schilling is out after this year and in all likelihood so is Wake. That leaves us with Beckett' date=' Dice-K and Lester for sure being here for next year. [/quote']How does your second statement fit with your first statement? Are you saying that our FO has not learned its lesson? Why would we let Schilling leave when he is our #1 or 2 pitcher who will win 15+ games this year and strikeout about 200? It would be a no-brainer that he would go to the Yankees if we don't re-sign him.

[TheKilo]

How does your second statement fit with your first statement? Are you saying that our FO has not learned its lesson? Why would we let Schilling leave when he is our #1 or 2 pitcher who will win 15+ games this year and strikeout about 200? It would be a no-brainer that he would go to the Yankees if we don't re-sign him.

 

Did you watch the game yesterday? You want to commit $15 mil to that?

[a700hitter]

Did you watch the game yesterday? You want to commit $15 mil to that?

He's not what he used to be, but a 15+ game winner with 200 k's is worth about $15 million. I didn't create the market, but that's about what they go for today.

[CrespoBlows]

He's not what he used to be' date=' but a 15+ game winner with 200 k's is worth about $15 million. I didn't create the market, but that's about what they go for today.[/quote']

 

Wins are a very poor tool at evaluating a pitcher's performance.

[ksushi]

My first statement was about keeping young pitching in favor of acquiring position players. The second one was pointing out how some of our older pitchers aren't gonna be around long, and theres a need there. Schilling won't be here next year, Wake might, but Schilling wanted I think 13 million to stay and I don't see the Sox committing that. Schill isn't a lock for 15+ wins, or 200 K's this year I don't know how you can say that is about his output for next year. I still think he is good. I expect him to be around 3.9 and win about 15 this year, but he looks a little shakier than he did last year. His control has been less consistent and he isn't reaching back for as much fastball as he could last year. If Schill comes back next year, I don't want any part of it and I doubt the FO does especially with Buck playing as well as he is right now he should finish the year in AAA and compete for a job next year.

 

I'm not gonna pull for the FO to bring back a guy who is losing his fastball and might be a 13 million dollar disaster. Wake, I like. I've always loved Wake, so if he comes back I wouldn't be too surprised because he gives us quality innings and lots of 'em and he signed maybe the best contract ever.

 

Other than that, its going to be time to turn it over to younger blood. Sorry, 700. Next year is really gonna suck for you. Don't look now, but Pedroia is hitting .330 and Lester is on the way. Those minor league "bags of s***" just won't stay down.

[a700hitter]

Other than that' date=' its going to be time to turn it over to younger blood. Sorry, 700. Next year is really gonna suck for you.[/quote']I don't even know what to make of this statement. What is this supposed to mean other than being purely antagonistic?

Don't look now' date=' but Pedroia is hitting .330 and Lester is on the way. Those minor league "bags of s***" just won't stay down.[/quote']I don't see any of the minor leaguers including Lester being ready to take the #1 or 2 slots in the rotation. Do you? I wouldn't be so quick to throw Schilling on the scrap heap if he only requires 1 year commitment. As you point out, you can never have enough pitching, and none of the minor leaguers have proven that they can hold down any rotation spot never mind the #1 or 2 spots. A number of people wanted Hansack in the rotation instead of Tavarez, but it was quickly apparent that Hansack who pounded the strike zone in the minors would get pounded if he threw strikes in the majors. You never have enough pitching. I agree with that. Schilling is still pretty good, so I sign him for the additional year.

[riverside sluggers]

Other than that' date=' its going to be time to turn it over to younger blood. Sorry, 700. Next year is really gonna suck for you. Don't look now, but Pedroia is hitting .330 and Lester is on the way. Those minor league "bags of s***" just won't stay down.[/quote']

 

I dont think he's ready to admit that he's been wrong about Pedroia.

[a700hitter]

Wins are a very poor tool at evaluating a pitcher's performance.

An ERA under 4.00 in the AL with over 200 innings pitched is pretty good. 7-8 K's/9 is good. A 4 to 1 K's to BB ratio is damn good too. Add to that the ability to win 15+ games in the #1 or 2 slot and he's worth $12-15 million for next year.

[riverside sluggers]

Im not convinced so far that he can finish this year with an ERA under 4

[a700hitter]

I dont think he's ready to admit that he's been wrong about Pedroia.

My argument about Pedroia was that I disagreed with the FO not having a viable backup plan in ST if the kid bombed out. His tools-- speed, arm, power are still average to below average. I am glad the kid is hitting now. Hitting is the one aspect of the game that is the hardest for a scout to evaluate, because you can't tell how the kid will adjust to the ML pitching and vice versa. Speed, arm and power are much more easily judged. Let's see how this kid with average skills finishes the season with the bat before we start crowing about him being a star. If he becomes a star, well I'd just love to be wrong if that is the outcome.

[a700hitter]

Im not convinced so far that he can finish this year with an ERA under 4

Are you convinced that Youklis will finish the season above .350 or even .300? He has never done either, so what could you base it on? Schilling has finished several years with under a 4 ERA, and he is still learning how to use the changeup effectively. I think he will get better as the year goes on and he gains a better command of that pitch.

[riverside sluggers]

Really Schilling has finished with seasons having ERAs under 4? You dont say

 

I still dont get your knock on Youkilis, he is a good player. So the wager is that from now through September he'll go into a long slump to end up with a .260 avg? Duh I dont think he'll end up with a .350 avg, but I dont see him doing a drastic nosedive

[ksushi]

I'm not saying these kids are ready step in and be aces. No one is saying that. I think it shakes out like this: Beckett is our #1 right now as you're reading this. He will be for the next few years. Dice-K is pitching better than his ERA would indicate, and is a prime candidate for a turn around. With one more year under his belt I think he is a very solid #2. Lester, Bucholz and Wake, rounding out the bottom 3 spots in '08 seems like a solid enough plan. Kason Gabbard deserves a look he has been nothing but solid in all of his call ups and ST appearances. Lester and Buck won't have to be nasty, but both at that point will have the ability to keep the team in games each start.

 

You're making an arguement for Schilling next year like you already know what he is gonna give you this year. I think there is a good chance Schill has a 4+ ERA at the end of this year and if he pitches like he did yesterday more often than not, 200 K's is a joke. I don't see him coming back. His stuff is declining, simple as that. If you can't see that, you're not watching. I would rather sign a stop-gap measure in case Bucholz needs another year in AAA and just go with that.

 

God... you really hate anyone that isn't proven don't you? If a guy isn't an established vet, than they are a "bag of s***" that hasn't proven anything and should be in the minors until they are 30. I'm done, I think. It's not even a debate or a conversation with you. Its getting boring.

[a700hitter]

I'm not saying these kids are ready step in and be aces. No one is saying that. I think it shakes out like this: Beckett is our #1 right now as you're reading this. He will be for the next few years. Dice-K is pitching better than his ERA would indicate' date=' and is a prime candidate for a turn around. With one more year under his belt I think he is a very solid #2. Lester, Bucholz and Wake, rounding out the bottom 3 spots in '08 seems like a solid enough plan. Kason Gabbard deserves a look he has been nothing but solid in all of his call ups and ST appearances. Lester and Buck won't have to be nasty, but both at that point will have the ability to keep the team in games each start.[/quote']So, the FO should disregard the proven starter in favor of pitchers that you acknowledge are not ready to take the #1 OR 2 holes. If they do that, then they have not learned their lesson that you never have enough pitching.

You're making an arguement for Schilling next year like you already know what he is gonna give you this year. I think there is a good chance Schill has a 4+ ERA at the end of this year and if he pitches like he did yesterday more often than not' date=' 200 K's is a joke. I don't see him coming back. His stuff is declining, simple as that. If you can't see that, you're not watching.[/quote']But you are arguing that he will do far worse than I am expecting. Is your prediction, not a prediction?

God... you really hate anyone that isn't proven don't you?

If a guy is unproven, he's unproven. Why would I hate the poor bastard? He's just unproven, meaning that the ML team can not count on the guy yet... right? Just because I don't get giddy like a school girl about some kid in AA "being our future" doesn't mean that i hate the kid. He's just a non-entity at the ML level. That's all.:dunno:

[a700hitter]

Really Schilling has finished with seasons having ERAs under 4? You dont say

 

I still dont get your knock on Youkilis, he is a good player. So the wager is that from now through September he'll go into a long slump to end up with a .260 avg? Duh I dont think he'll end up with a .350 avg, but I dont see him doing a drastic nosedive

But you see Schilling collapsing?

[riverside sluggers]

All I said was that I dont see him being able to finish the year with an ERA under 4. That doesnt go on to suggest I think he'll collapse.

[a700hitter]

All I said was that I dont see him being able to finish the year with an ERA under 4. That doesnt go on to suggest I think he'll collapse.

Hitting .260 to .280 is not a collapse either.

[riverside sluggers]

Hitting .350 at June 2nd, then ending the season at .260

 

that to me is a collapse

[a700hitter]

Hitting .350 at June 2nd, then ending the season at .260

 

that to me is a collapse

Hitting .250 for the last four months of the season is all thaqt it would take. That's not unheard of. What did he hit the last 4 months of 2006? I would not say that he collapsed in 2006. Over the course of a season, a player's stats usually finds his talent level. Maybe you think Youklis is a .300+ hitter. I don't. I peg him around .280. If he finishes at around .280, that's pretty good. That's not a collapse. He's had two hot months, which can be very easily averaged out by a slumping month. It happens to most players.

[ksushi]

I'm mean, so I deleted my old first sentence. Look, I'll put this simply and try not to lose my patience. Schilling isn't a 1 or a 2 anymore. If Beckett was having another year like last years, and Schilling was our ace, we would not be having this kind of great year. Schilling is not able to carry a staff, you cannot count on him to be a stopper, you can't even count on him for a quality start against our division rival. If someone who was 25 years old just out of the farm was performing like him, you would be ripping them apart. He is inconsistent, he can't rest our bullpen. He isn't collapsing, he is aging. He still can give quality outings, and sometimes looks like the Schilling of old, but... he isn't.

 

Any minor leaguer we bring up next year or this year does not have to be a one or a two. They don't have to strike out 200, they don't have to have an ERA south of four, they have to be solid pitchers. Curt Schilling is more or less a solid pitcher, and replacing his production is not out of reach for guys like Lester or Buck. They can do that in their rookie seasons and the benefit of giving the ball every 5th day to a rookie as opposed to our favorite 40 year old fatty, is that the rookie will gain experience and become better. He will (hopefully) improve on his rookie season and blossom into a good ML pitcher. Schilling will cost far more, give us around the same output and not improve at all. Quite the opposite, he will take the place that would otherwise be given to a rookie and be gone after one year... no benefit long term. I will bet you that Clay Bucholz when he comes up for his first full season will duplicate or improve on schillings 2007 numbers. And a rookie has room to grow, a 40 year old vet does not.

 

 

See what I mean when I say rookies are the better investment? I would rather have Jon Lester as my 3rd starter next year and take Schillings 13 million and put it towards an Adam Dunn.

[a700hitter]

I'm mean' date=' so I deleted my old first sentence. Look, I'll put this simply and try not to lose my patience. Schilling isn't a 1 or a 2 anymore. [/quote']He's still our #1 or 2 despite the fact that he is not the shutdown stopper of old. The numbers continue to bear this out. Not too many major league teams have a number 2 equal to this aging Schilling.

If someone who was 25 years old just out of the farm was performing like him' date=' you would be ripping them apart.[/quote']This is ridiculous. Am I an age bigot? Clearly not, because i love guys like Beckett, Dice K and Papelbon. maybe I am just hell bent against the Red Sox farm system? Clearly not, because I love papelbon and Ellsbury. So, why don't you and others stop with your labeling of me in this fashion and just address my criticisms on the merits. My criticisms of the players are on the merits.

Any minor leaguer we bring up next year or this year does not have to be a one or a two. They don't have to strike out 200' date=' they don't have to have an ERA south of four, they have to be solid pitchers. Curt Schilling is more or less a solid pitcher, and replacing his production is not out of reach for guys like Lester or Buck. They can do that in their rookie seasons and the benefit of giving the ball every 5th day to a rookie as opposed to our favorite 40 year old fatty, is that the rookie will gain experience and become better. [/quote']I am sorry that I am not willing to pencil in Bucholz to replace Schilling (edit). but it has nothing to do with a prejudice against young pitchers. They are unproven. We don't know if any of these kids can hold up under the rigors of a 200 inning season. They haven't done it at any other level. Doing it in the majors is tougher and it takes some time for a kid to work his way up to 200 innings. Beckett did it for the first time last year.

I will bet you that Clay Bucholz when he comes up for his first full season will duplicate or improve on schillings 2007 numbers.

Does this mean his first full year on the 25 man roster? If so' date=' I'll take that bet. QUOTE=ksushi;258252;']I would rather have Jon Lester as my 3rd starter next year and take Schillings 13 million and put it towards an Adam Dunn.

The problem is Adam Dunn can't pitch, and we don't know if Lester can take the ball every 5th day and throw 200 innings. You never have enough pitching. Why not let Lester and Bucholz be luxuries if they make it to the Bigs instead of putting the pressure on them of holding down the 3 through 5 slots next year.

 

BTW if you are losing your patience with me because I fail to agree with you that is just too bad. Go take your Midol, and leave your attitude out of your posts.

[ksushi]

Who is penciling in Bucholz to replace Beckett? I'm sorry I stopped reading your post right there because it seems like you don't read mine... that wasn't at all what I'm saying. As a matter of fact, Beckett has been my favorite player since mid-2003 when I first saw him pitch and I hope he finishes his career with the Sox... Gah...

 

Its not that you fail to agree... if everyone agreed this would be a boring place, but mostly because it seems you fail to read mine or anyone elses posts and acknowledge anything anyone says contrary to your belief that everyone without 5 years major league service time could have potential. Don't back peddle on what you said about Pedroia either, I remember very bold statements about his defense and his bat from you.

 

There is always a risk with minor leaguers. Always. They might flop, but scouts aren't blind. When guys feature good stuff like Buch whose curve has been rated a perfect 80 by some scouts on the 20-80 scale and whose fastball was sitting at 97 late last year those are skills that indicate the kid will be a good major leaguer. Should he come up right now and replace Schilling? No, absolutely not, Schilling has had some very good starts, more good ones than otherwise at this point and no one is taking his place in our rotation because he is pulling his weight. Should Buch weigh in the FO's descision of whether or not they shell out major cash to bring Schill back next year? Yeah, he really should.

[a700hitter]

Who is penciling in Bucholz to replace Beckett? I'm sorry I stopped reading your post right there because it seems like you don't read mine... that wasn't at all what I'm saying. As a matter of fact' date=' Beckett has been my favorite player since mid-2003 when I first saw him pitch and I hope he finishes his career with the Sox... Gah...[/quote']I meant to say Schilling instead of Beckett. I have made the appropriate edit to my post. I suggest you re-read it with the edit and edit your response appropriately.

[a700hitter]

Don't back peddle on what you said about Pedroia either' date=' I remember very bold statements about his defense and his bat from you.[/quote']

Who is backpeddaling? I continue to think he has below average speed, average range and arm and below average power. He still tends to swing too big for a little guy, and I don't think his hands are any better than Loretta's. What other bold statements have I made about him. I think my stated opinion has been pretty clear and consistent.

[BSN07]

Schilling by the end of the season will not be the #1 or even the #2 pitcher in the rotation. Besides his outing against Cleveland, he hasn't pitched well against above AVG. lineups. He might just be going threw a funk right now theres no telling. But Beckett has clearly passed him and Matsuzaka is not far behind and would probably be ahead of him if he didnt have so much to adjust too. I would much rather see them bring in someone like Buherle then give 15M to Schilling as of right now. Of course this could change, but I have trouble seeinf Schill getting stronger as the year goes on.

 

He's a #3 or #4 guy right now, and probably wont get any better then this. If he wants 15M, Id let him walk and try and bring in Buherle or someone else that will help for the next couple seasons and not just one. If he wants 13M, well I know its only a difference of 2M but I suppose that wouldnt be too bad considering what some guys are getting paid(Meche). Just aslong as he doesnt pull a diva act and realizes hes not the ace of the staff anymore, not the opening day pitcher, and hes going to start #3 or #4 in the rotation. I'm not sure hes ego will beable to handle that, so who knows if he even will want to comeback if those are the circumstances...