2007 pitching predictions

[MANNYHOF24]

I am going to give this a shot, nothing better to talk about with four days to go until opening day.

 

Schilling- 17-9 3.71 213 innings 177 k, OBA: .248

 

Beckett- 18-9 3.50 210 innings 201 k OBA: .230

 

DiceK- 16-7 2.99 189 innings 200 k OBA: .219

 

Wake- 12-11 4.35 194 innings 145 k OBA: .239

 

Tavarez- 4-7 4.99 78 innings as a starter 59 k OBA: .269

 

Lester- 6-4 4.23 77 innings 63 k OBA: .260

 

Wild Card: Clemens- 9-5 3.65 110 innings 90 k OBA: 227

 

Papelbon 41 saves in 45 chances 1.55 era 87k's in 72 innings

[jacksonianmarch]

schilling under 4?

Beckett under 4?

Matsuzaka under 3?

[MANNYHOF24]

schilling under 4?

Beckett under 4?

Matsuzaka under 3?

 

Yeah, with Schill's changeup his pitch count will be down, and he will be more durable in the second half. Beckett has learned his lesson and is ready to be the dominating pitcher he can be. With the Matsuzaka prediction I am just going by what I have seen in spring training. I have seen a pitcher that has great breaking pitches, a fastball that can touch 97 and a change up that reminds me a little bit of Pedro Martinez. I don't think my predictions are that much of a stretch, I was watching Curt pitch on Wed and his change up looked outstanding, Minnesota had their A lineup out there and nobody made good contact with it.

[BSN07]

Schilling- 16-9 4.07 ERA 185 innings

 

Beckett- 18-7 3.98 ERA 230 innings

 

Matsuzaka- 15-8 3.58 ERA 200 innings+

 

Wakefield- 11-10 4.72 ERA 200 innnings+

 

Taveras- 5-4 4.91 ERA

 

Lester- 10-6 4.79 ERA

 

Papelbon- 4-2 1.95 ERA 35 saves

 

 

I've already said I think Beckett is the ace of the staff this season...

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah' date=' with Schill's changeup his pitch count will be down, and he will be more durable in the second half. Beckett has learned his lesson and is ready to be the dominating pitcher he can be. With the Matsuzaka prediction I am just going by what I have seen in spring training. I have seen a pitcher that has great breaking pitches, a fastball that can touch 97 and a change up that reminds me a little bit of Pedro Martinez. I don't think my predictions are that much of a stretch, I was watching Curt pitch on Wed and his change up looked outstanding, Minnesota had their A lineup out there and nobody made good contact with it.[/quote']

 

Schilling's addition of a change will halt the downward slide, but you have to remember that he was very hittable last season, for the first time in his career. That screams a dropoff in stuff. That is likely to continue and unless he adjusts all of his pitches accordingly, he will not get better. Mussina did it, Schill has to as well and he needs to do it with the splitty and the curve to remain effective. I dont care what new pitch you learn, Schill will still be sticking to the bread and butter. And the only way Schill will regain his untouchable status would be to slow down all the breaking stuff as his heater starts to slow. I think he will come out gangbusters again and then fade off as most oldies do. Likely 200IP 4ERA from him.

 

Beckett is an absolute enigma. A 2 pitch pitcher with a 3rd that is way too far behind. A mentality that can easily be shaken and location that is suspect when you make contact. He will improve if he trusts his offspeed stuff, but the only way he gets into the mid 3's is if he masters a 3rd pitch. He hasnt, so he wont. Also, with the use of the curveball will come blister issues, even when he is treated for eczema. I expect a mid 4's ERA and about 170IP and a stint on the DL.

 

Matsuzaka will start off being way too fine with his pitches and walk a bunch which will hurt in the ALE. Then he will remember that he has 6 plus pitches and finish the season as your ace. I see him over 4ERA until the end of the yr when he brings his season ERA into the 3.8 range. The sox will be careful with their investment as well. I see something like 180-200IP.

 

Wakefield is wakefield. Barring injury, he is 170-200IP 4.5-5.0ERA

 

Tavarez is terrible. 1.55 WHIP last yr, 1.44 as a starter, 1.47 career. That is a ton of baserunners. He doesnt have the power arsenal to get out of those jams and he really doesnt have the power sinker that would make the extra baserunners obsolete at times via the DP. His ERA will be floating mid 5's when they replace him with Hansack in mid May.

[Plumpamania]

Curt Schilling: 15-10 4.15 ERA 210 IP 150K/20BB

Josh Beckett: 16-7 3.90 ERA 210 IP 190K/50BB 25 HRA

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 20-7 2.90 ERA 230 IP 200K/50BB

Tim Wakefield: 9-9 4.70 ERA 170 IP 130K/60BB

Julian Tavarez: 5-7 5.25 ERA 120 IP 50K/20BB

Jon Lester: 10-3 3.75 ERA 140 IP 120K/50BB

 

Jonathan Papelbon: 1-3 1.15 ERA 60 IP 80K/15BB 30 Saves

Brendan Donnolley: 2-5 4.20 ERA 80 IP 40K/20BB 2 Saves

Joel Piniero: 1-7 50 IP 6.50 ERA 30K/30BB Released/Traded

Hideki Okajima: 5-2 2.75 ERA 60 IP 60K/15BB

Mike Timlin: 2-5 4.00 ERA 40 IP 30K/10BB

J.C. Romero: 2-1 3.35 ERA 25 IP 10K/10BB

Craig Hansen: 1-0 4.00 ERA 30 IP 25K/10BB

Manny Delcarmen: 2-1 4.00 ERA 40 IP 25K/15BB

Kyle Snyder: 2-2 60 IP 4.50 ERA 25K/15BB

 

Leaves us at 93 - 69 and a wild card berth.

[ANiMAL]

Curt Schilling: 15-9 3.90 ERA 190 IP 180K/30BB

Josh Beckett: 13-9 4.30 ERA 200 IP 160K/70BB

Daisuke Matsuzaka: 15-6 4.00 ERA 230 IP 200K/70BB

Tim Wakefield: 12-10 4.50 ERA 230 IP 130K/60BB

Julian Tavarez:[16 Starts] 3-5 4.60 ERA 90 IP 50K/20BB

Jon Lester:[16 Starts] 9-3 3.80 ERA 100 IP 100K/50BB

 

Jonathan Papelbon: 4-1 2.00 ERA 70 IP 90K/15BB 40 Saves

Brendan Donnolley: 2-4 3.00 ERA 70 IP 50K/20BB

Joel Piniero: 6-4 4.50 ERA 60 IP 40K/30BB

Hideki Okajima: 3-3 3.00 ERA 40 IP 30K/15BB

Mike Timlin: 2-4 4.50 ERA 50 IP 40K/30BB

J.C. Romero: 4-4 3.50 ERA 60 IP 10K/10BB

Craig Hansen: 1-4 4.00 ERA 30 IP 30K/15BB

Manny Delcarmen: 4-1 4.20 ERA 40 IP 30K/15BB

Kyle Snyder: 1-2 6.00 ERA 15 IP 10K/20BB

 

and with those the bosox go 94-68

i think

[NateGrey]

..

Schilling- 18-7 , 207ip , 184k , 3.95ERA

 

Beckett- 19-6 , 217ip , 176k , 4.12ERA

 

DiceK- 17-9 , 224ip , 214k , 3.12ERA

 

Wake- 11-16 , 176ip , 127k , 5.67ERA

 

Tavarez- 6-4 , 68ip , 43k , 5.34ERA

 

Lester- 9-2 , 72ip , 56k , 3.69ERA

 

Clay Buchholz - 2-0 , 29ip , 36k , 1.96ERA(Pen)

.....

 

 

..

 

 

 

[MANNYHOF24]

Beckett is an absolute enigma. A 2 pitch pitcher with a 3rd that is way too far behind. A mentality that can easily be shaken and location that is suspect when you make contact. He will improve if he trusts his offspeed stuff, but the only way he gets into the mid 3's is if he masters a 3rd pitch. He hasnt, so he wont. Also, with the use of the curveball will come blister issues, even when he is treated for eczema. I expect a mid 4's ERA and about 170IP and a stint on the DL.

.

 

Beckett this spring has been great, his change is 83 mph, and it looks like he has improved his curveball. His change will be the key this year, he has really thrown it well. I think Schilling wore down last season because it was his first full year since 2004. I think he will be improved from last year. You don't realize, that Schilling has never featured his change, he throws it about 77 mph, which with his 90-94 FB makes him better. He threw about 20 change ups in his 7 innings 85 pitch outing agianst Baltimore about a week ago.

[TheKilo]

I'll just do W/L and ERA, but let me start by saying anything under 3.5 is an extreme stretch in the ALE.

 

Schilling - 17-10, 4.25 ERA

Beckett - 18-9, 4.3 ERA

Matsuzaka - 14-7, 4.3 ERA

Wakefield - 12-14, 4.5 ERA

#5 Starter (sans Clemens) - 10-16, 4.7 ERA

 

That's an approximation of 71-56 out of the starters. We'd need 25 wins out of the 'pen to get to the playoffs, IMO.

 

If Clemens comes on board it's a whole different ballgame.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

I am going to give this a shot, nothing better to talk about with four days to go until opening day.

 

Schilling- 17-9 3.71 213 innings 177 k, OBA: .248

 

Beckett- 18-9 3.50 210 innings 201 k OBA: .230

 

DiceK- 16-7 2.99 189 innings 200 k OBA: .219

 

Wake- 12-11 4.35 194 innings 145 k OBA: .239

 

Tavarez- 4-7 4.99 78 innings as a starter 59 k OBA: .269

 

Lester- 6-4 4.23 77 innings 63 k OBA: .260

 

Wild Card: Clemens- 9-5 3.65 110 innings 90 k OBA: 227

 

Papelbon 41 saves in 45 chances 1.55 era 87k's in 72 innings

 

I just got extremely horny reading that...

 

...then again, I get horny when I think about smushing my face into Jessica Simpson's rack...that doesn't mean there's a realistic chance of it happening.

 

Let's hope! (For both situations :thumbsup: )

[TheKilo]

I just got extremely horny reading that...

 

...then again, I get horny when I think about smushing my face into Jessica Simpson's rack...that doesn't mean there's a realistic chance of it happening.

 

Let's hope! (For both situations :thumbsup: )

 

 

You motorboatin' son of a bitch.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

You motorboatin' son of a bitch.

 

In answer to your inevitable question...they are built for comfort

[jacksonianmarch]

Beckett this spring has been great' date=' his change is 83 mph, and it looks like he has improved his curveball. His change will be the key this year, he has really thrown it well. I think Schilling wore down last season because it was his first full year since 2004. I think he will be improved from last year. You don't realize, that Schilling has never featured his change, he throws it about 77 mph, which with his 90-94 FB makes him better. He threw about 20 change ups in his 7 innings 85 pitch outing agianst Baltimore about a week ago.[/quote']

 

Beckett looked unbeatable last ST when I was saying he'd win the CY. He looked great in his first three starts too. But once the opposing bats warmed up at the end of May and caught up to the heat, he became bat shy. And Beckett's changeup has been the one thing the Marlins ruined by rushing him to the majors (one reason why i am glad we are leaving Hughes in Scranton). He was a dominant 2 pitch pitcher in the minors with a show me changeup. Instead of leaving him in AAA and working on the change, they brought him up and he won a WS. But the change suffered and now that he faces full lineups every time out, third time through he is meat. When the rubber hits the road, and his back is against the wall, he isnt going to the changeup.

 

You could be right on Schilling. But tailing off is what old guys do. The last pitcher to defy that logic was RJ in 2005 when he finished on a tear. Schill isnt young anymore. His fastball isnt 94+ anymore. He has to make adjustments. Maybe the chane is one. But same deal. You want to create another plus pitch, you need to be able to use it when your back is against the wall. I'd be surprised if a brand new pitch like this one is anything more than a show me pitch.

[ksushi]

Schilling - 16 - 8 3.93 200+ IP

 

Beckett - 19 - 5 3.23 200+ IP

 

Matsuzaka - 17 - 7 3.45 200 IP

 

Wakefield - 9 - 9 4.00 100 IP

 

Lester - 9 - 5 3.80 120IP

 

Tavarez - 3 - 8 5.25 100 IP

 

 

Papelbon 45 saves in 49 chances 1.10 ERA.

[jacksonianmarch]

top 3 52-20?? wow. If Beckett's era is that low, you can control my sig for a week.

[TGov]

Schilling- 16-9 4.07 ERA 185 innings

 

Beckett- 18-7 3.98 ERA 230 innings

 

Matsuzaka- 15-8 3.58 ERA 200 innings+

 

Wakefield- 11-10 4.72 ERA 200 innnings+

 

Taveras- 5-4 4.91 ERA

 

Lester- 10-6 4.79 ERA

 

Papelbon- 4-2 1.95 ERA 35 saves

 

 

I've already said I think Beckett is the ace of the staff this season...

 

I pretty much predict the same... except Matsuzaka I think wont lose that many games, maybe 5 or 6 and Lester may do a little better... also, Paps i think will save more, maybe 40ish, well theres my predictions...

[ORS]

52-20 out of a big-budget top 3 is not out of this world. At least, not compared to the, what was it, 70+ wins you had the Yankees top-3 getting a couple of years ago according to Crunch.

[jacksonianmarch]

yeah, I have since learned some restraint. Contrary to popular belief, I do learn from my many mistakes. The 52 wins isnt what I was taking issue with. The average of 6.7 losses per is what seems amiss.

[MANNYHOF24]

It really all depends on how the offense comes together. If we can score 5 runs a game then 52 wins out of the "big three" is very possible.

[jacksonianmarch]

it also depends on how that middle relief comes together. Many a win have been lost in the swirling seas of the 7th and 8th innings. No more 2 inning saves means the 8th inning will be something fun to watch.

[TheKilo]

I admit my expectations may be a bit pessimistic, but it's good because if I'm right, I'm right and if I'm wrong, the Red Sox will win more games.

[MANNYHOF24]

it also depends on how that middle relief comes together. Many a win have been lost in the swirling seas of the 7th and 8th innings. No more 2 inning saves means the 8th inning will be something fun to watch.

 

I think we have a fairly soild middle relief core with Donnely, Timlin, Pineiro.

[ksushi]

I'm holding you to that jack. If Beckett posts that ERA, you will have big picture of him hoisting this years world series trophy in your sig after the post season.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'm holding you to that jack. If Beckett posts that ERA' date=' you will have big picture of him hoisting this years world series trophy in your sig after the post season.[/quote']

 

I am a man of my word ksush.

[jacksonianmarch]

I think we have a fairly soild middle relief core with Donnely' date=' Timlin, Pineiro.[/quote']

 

Whoa Manny. The sox are a good team, but that is like me saying I expect Pavano to be good this yr. Which I dont.

[TheKilo]

Whoa Manny. The sox are a good team' date=' but that is like me saying I expect Pavano to be good this yr. Which I dont.[/quote']

 

Donnelly and Timlin have proven in the past they can be solid. It's really not that much of a stretch to think they won't be again.

 

Piniero I have no idea.

[redsticknation]

Schilling - 15-7, 3.76 era

Beckett - 17-8, 4.02 era

Matsuzaka - 19-5, 3.12 era

Wakefield - 12-10, 4.65 era

Taverez - 6-8, 4.95 era

 

Lester, 8-3, 4.16 era

 

Papelbon 38 saves (of 40) 1.12 era

[Jon_Papelboner]

Schilling- 8-12 4.89 ERA

Beckett- 11-10 4.34 ERA 89 HR's allowed

Matsuzaka- DFA'd in July

Wakefield- 14-12 3.97

Taverez- DFA'd in May

Papelboner- 17-3 3.01 ERA

[BSN07]

Schilling- 16-9 4.07 ERA 185 innings

 

Beckett- 18-7 3.98 ERA 230 innings

 

Matsuzaka- 15-8 3.58 ERA 200 innings+

 

Wakefield- 11-10 4.72 ERA 200 innnings+

 

Taveras- 5-4 4.91 ERA

 

Lester- 10-6 4.79 ERA

 

Papelbon- 4-2 1.95 ERA 35 saves

 

 

I've already said I think Beckett is the ace of the staff this season...

 

 

Beckett 20-7 3.27 ERA

 

Matsuzaka 15-12 4.40 ERA

 

Papelbon 1-3 37 saves 1.88 ERA

 

I also said that Beckett would be a top 3 pitcher and be in the running for the Cy Young, so for my 1st yr of predicting it wasn't too bad.