Are they prospects or pretenders?

[scaffolds]

With the minor leaguers reporting to Ft Myers for Spring training in about two months its about time to talk about the Red Sox minor league prospects. The following is a list of Sox prospects that have talent, have put op some numbers in the minors, but there are questions about them.

 

1- Jeff Natale 2B

2- Chad Spann 3B

3- Brandon Moss RF

4- Jed Lowrie 2B

5- Matt Goodson RHP

6- Chris Jones RHP

7- Ian Bladergroen 1B

8- Andrew Pinkney 3B

9- Jeff Corsaletti LF

10- Gary Galvez RHP

 

Commnets to follow

[Papelbon58]

I would call Lowrie a prospect beyond a shadow of a doubt, and Spann seems to be a legitimate major league prospect, the rest are iffy at best.

[scaffolds]

Well i am going to spend more time in this later, but for now there isn't a question that Lowrie has some talent, but he may have more questions than the rest of this group. For now the only question that he has answered is that he isn't a short stop.

[a700hitter]

The success of prospects is just so speculative that it's just not worht the investment of my energy. Hopefully, the FO knows what it is doing and will keep the good prospects and trade the rest. I remember years ago reading a spring training interview with a veteran ballplayer about prospects in camp. My recollection is the it was Carlton Fisk that gave the interview. Fisk basically said that he more or less ignored them. He felt no need to befriend them, because few if any of them would be coming north with the team. As a fan, I can't get excited about Bucholz, Bowden, Lowrie etc., because so few of these guys ever make it big. I witnessesed Lynn and Rice as Rookies, and it took me years to realize that i will never see anything like that again. It was amazing to see, but it was such a freak thing.

[example1]

The success of prospects is just so speculative that it's just not worht the investment of my energy. Hopefully' date=' the FO knows what it is doing and will keep the good prospects and trade the rest. I remember years ago reading a spring training interview with a veteran ballplayer about prospects in camp. My recollection is the it was Carlton Fisk that gave the interview. Fisk basically said that he more or less ignored them. He felt no need to befriend them, because few if any of them would be coming north with the team. As a fan, I can't get excited about Bucholz, Bowden, Lowrie etc., because so few of these guys ever make it big. I witnessesed Lynn and Rice as Rookies, and it took me years to realize that i will never see anything like that again. It was amazing to see, but it was such a freak thing.[/quote']

 

Nomar was a pretty good rookie. Papelbon was a pretty good rookie. You're right cause you probably won't have two like lynn and rice for a long time.

 

I take a different stand with prospects than you a700. You're right that a lot of them will never make the show, but its not like they disappear into a black box for 4 years and then magically appear in the majors. With people who know the Sox as well as most of us here, its not difficult to project a prospect's trajectory into the Sox system while following those player's minor league statistics thoughout (thank you, mr. internet). For instance, a player like Jacoby Ellsbury is very likely going to be playing for the sox in a year or two. Crisp isn't good enough to hold that spot and ellsbury has too many tools to not make the bigs. From college you could just tell he was going to be playing at the top level and contributing his unique collection of skills to the club. I think the same has been true of Pedroia, who gets on base like 37% of the time at every level of full season ball he's played, or Hansen whose stuff was just too good in college to not project to the bigs.

 

Most of the guys listed above have had an opportunity to bust out and they have had varied levels of success.

 

I was hopeful about Corseletti and Lowrie but I think they could be types of players who play for a few years in AAA and maybe make a few appearances in fenway without much to show for it. :dunno: Just a guess.

[AZBlue]

Scaffolds, I agree with all of the players on your list, but I have far fewer doubts about Moss becoming a good contributor at the major league level than any of the others.

[a700hitter]

Nomar was a pretty good rookie. Papelbon was a pretty good rookie. You're right cause you probably won't have two like lynn and rice for a long time.

 

I take a different stand with prospects than you a700. You're right that a lot of them will never make the show, but its not like they disappear into a black box for 4 years and then magically appear in the majors. With people who know the Sox as well as most of us here, its not difficult to project a prospect's trajectory into the Sox system while following those player's minor league statistics thoughout (thank you, mr. internet). For instance, a player like Jacoby Ellsbury is very likely going to be playing for the sox in a year or two. Crisp isn't good enough to hold that spot and ellsbury has too many tools to not make the bigs. From college you could just tell he was going to be playing at the top level and contributing his unique collection of skills to the club. I think the same has been true of Pedroia, who gets on base like 37% of the time at every level of full season ball he's played, or Hansen whose stuff was just too good in college to not project to the bigs.

 

Most of the guys listed above have had an opportunity to bust out and they have had varied levels of success.

 

I was hopeful about Corseletti and Lowrie but I think they could be types of players who play for a few years in AAA and maybe make a few appearances in fenway without much to show for it. :dunno: Just a guess.

I don't pretend to know the prospects as well as many of the posters here. It's just so speculative that it doesn't interest me. It's such an inexact science evidenced by the large percentage of first round picks that never make the majors or that make little or no impact in the majors. I can't tell you how many times throughout the years that I have heard about can't miss prospects that have fallen away without so much as a major league cup of coffee. The people who wrote or spoke about those people were every bit as sincere and knowledgeable as you are. For every Nomar there are so many that go the other way. There are almost as many tragic stories l(ike the kid who severed the tendons in his pitching hand at a funeral) as there are success stories. I hope our FO does a better job than other FO's in this regard, because it is an essential function, but I rarely if ever get excited when I hear about drafts or prospects, especially if we trade proven talent to get them. I go to ST every year, and I enjoy watching the kids, but I am rarely impressed with any of them. I like Lowrie's bat. THe others...eh. I'll let you know in March. I am hoping to get a look at Ellsbury. I haven't seen him yet. I'd like to see Bard too, and you guys have me intrigued about Bulcholz and Bowden, but don't jump ugly all over me if I tell you that I think they are nothing special or not ready after seeing them. I am far from an expert, but special guys like Rice, Lynn, Nomar and Papelbon make an immediate impression even if they don't produce great results right away.

[jacksonianmarch]

I take a different approach 700. I will follow what the experts say about guys who get drafted and hope for them to be good. Once they make it to AA and show their salt, then I get excited about them. Too many times injury or the talent level in AA claims a player.

 

For us, I am very excited about what Clippard, Hughes, and Sanchez bring. If they get Owings and Nippert, I'd be very excited about them as well. Whereas guys like Betances, Chamberlain, and Kennedy are guys I really hope for and will get very excited about them if or when they get to AA.

 

That is why I think hope should be the term for the sox pitchers. All 3 B's will be starting the season below AA next yr. There is a decent chance that none of them will throw an inning of AA ball, hence none of them will reach excitation (or loathe when on the sox) level in my book.

[a700hitter]

I take a different approach 700. I will follow what the experts say about guys who get drafted and hope for them to be good. Once they make it to AA and show their salt, then I get excited about them. Too many times injury or the talent level in AA claims a player.

 

For us, I am very excited about what Clippard, Hughes, and Sanchez bring. If they get Owings and Nippert, I'd be very excited about them as well. Whereas guys like Betances, Chamberlain, and Kennedy are guys I really hope for and will get very excited about them if or when they get to AA.

 

That is why I think hope should be the term for the sox pitchers. All 3 B's will be starting the season below AA next yr. There is a decent chance that none of them will throw an inning of AA ball, hence none of them will reach excitation (or loathe when on the sox) level in my book.

I'll be happy not to face Sheffield or Randy Johnson this year. I think I will miss Wright, although he wasn't too bad against us last year.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'll be happy not to face Sheffield or Randy Johnson this year. I think I will miss Wright' date=' although he wasn't too bad against us last year.[/quote']

 

You didnt see Sheffield last yr. RJ had an Opp BA of .306 and a 7+ ERA against you guys last season.

[a700hitter]

You didnt see Sheffield last yr. RJ had an Opp BA of .306 and a 7+ ERA against you guys last season.

I didn't miss Sheffield last year either, and I think we beat Johnson only once in the last two years.

[jacksonianmarch]

I didn't miss Sheffield last year either' date=' and I think we beat Johnson only once in the last two years.[/quote']

 

yeah, he was 2-1 against you guys last yr. That is more a testament to the offense than anything.

[scaffolds]

AZ Blue i agree that Moss may have the least amount of questions of this group, Moss defense and arm's are very playable for a RF and are at least average, as a hitter he has a fairly short quick stroke that he generates good power and while i don't believe that he will for a 300 average he could hit in the 270- 280 area. The question that most scouts ask about Moss still remains will he hit for enough power to be an everyday RF. Moss had an very good season at Portland in 2006 and starred very well in the Dominican Winter league before he faded after the mid way point. Moss is a better prospect than David Murphy is and while he may not be abe to play CF like Murphy can the rest of Moss game is better than Murphy. The 2007 will tell a lot about of Moss future.

[a700hitter]

yeah' date=' he was 2-1 against you guys last yr. That is more a testament to the offense than anything.[/quote']Head to head nothing matters but W's and L's. 1 win against 7 losses over the last two years will not be missed.

[jacksonianmarch]

Moss kinda stagnated. His power still has not developed and for a corner OF prospect, that is death. He'll turn 24 at the end of the season, so he has 2 yrs left to crack the bigs or it is a career in AAAA for him.

[scaffolds]

Getting back to the tread topic.

 

Jeff Natale second base defense and DP work may never be more than average, but there is a chance that Natale will be a offensive second base man. Natale has very quick hands that generates very good bat speed which leads to more pop specially for someone of his size 5-9 about 175. In 2006 not only he showed that he could handle low a ball pitching, but also high A ball when he hit for a conbine of 23 doubles and 17 HR not to mention 84 runs scored and 87 RBI, (between Greenville and Wilmington) not too bad for a former 32th round draft pick, but Natale will only go as far as his bat will take him and the 2007 season at Portland will be a big text for him specially when its well known that the jump to AA its the biggest in the minors.

[scaffolds]

Moss kinda stagnated. His power still has not developed and for a corner OF prospect' date=' that is death. He'll turn 24 at the end of the season, so he has 2 yrs left to crack the bigs or it is a career in AAAA for him.[/quote']

 

Actually Moss turned 23 yrs in September and while i agree that there is questions about his powe, i believe that for now he may not be any better than a fourth OF, but his talent and future its better than David Murphy.

[scaffolds]

Chad Spann rebounded in 2006 at Portland with a good season and in the Arizona fall league. Spann like with Moss there are questions if he could hit for enogh power to play as a regular at the ML level. Spann a former H.S. short stop is more athletic than kevin Youkilis, while he needs some work with his glove he has a better range than Youkilis, in general like with Moss the 2007 season at Pawtucket will be a key to determine his future.

[jacksonianmarch]

Murphy has more potential as a 4th OFer though because he can play all 3 OF positions.

[scaffolds]

Murphy has more potential as a 4th OFer though because he can play all 3 OF positions.

 

A outfielder that can play all 3 outfield positions but one that has a questionable bat is more of a fifth outfielder than one who can play in the corners but with a better bat who will be the fourth outfielder.

[scaffolds]

Jed lowrie has shown that he isn't s short stop, he doesn't have the range or the arm for the position, but as a second baseman he could be above average when it come to defense. Coming out of Stanford there where a lot of question if Lowrie could hit using wood bats, because he had struggle using them in summer leagues, however he had a very good first year in Lowell of course using wood. In 2006 the question came up again was the reason because he had a down year because of the big jump from lowell to Wilmington or because of his hitting problems. that question needs to be answer in 2007, where would Lowrie play its another question, if he plays short stop (the Red Sox brass may want to see him play another season at the position) it could be at Portland, but if they move him back to second base it would be in Lancaster (the new high A team) because he needs to play every day and Natale would be the Portland second baseman.

[jacksonianmarch]

the question is, scaffolds, if you have Natale and Lowrie, which one makes the majors? Which one is held in higher regard? And if these kids have any value at all, and project as weak armed 2 baggers, why are they still in the sox organization when Pedroia has outplayed them all?

[Mr Crunchy]

prospects are good bargaining chips for pitching

the problem is trying to determine what prospects hold what value and how will that translate into mlb performance

tomo okha and brian rose went a combined 30-1 in 2 seasons at pawtucket

both won minor league pitcher of the year awards if im not mistaken

 

rose was let go to colorado i believe with less than 20 innings in a sox uni

we also let cant miss prospect eric wedge go to colorado during expansion

steve lomasney from peabody was a cant miss catcher and old friend jeff spinelli from revere,a 90mph+ pitcher in hischool was a #1 cant miss pick till he developed a taste for smack and steroids,not in any order

who was the kid who was a cant miss pitcher who cut his hand on a glass candle holder and severed nerves in his hand??

john curtice??

juan pena was 2-0 against ny i think? with an incredible era before he blew his elbow out

the following spring training he came back awesome untill the last start when a soft liner hit him dead nuts on the surgically repaired elbow....gone forever

 

who knows

this is purely a crap shoot

[scaffolds]

First of all, Lowrie and Natale have some talent, that's why an organization doesn't give up on them, but like i posted before there are questions that hopefully will be answered in 2007 not just for Lowrie and Natale, but also for Pedroia at the ML level.

[scaffolds]

Mr Crunchy; The worst way to judge pitching prospects its by their win and losses, i believe that if Juan Pena had be able to stay healthy he would had been a ML pitcher, but injuries are part of the game. Lomasney and Wedge had a very good defense game, but they couldn't hit. John Curtis is another matter, he had the arm (specially for a lefty) but not the desire, as a Red Sox prospect he was always out of shape, present Red Sox prospect Michael Rozier remeinds me of Curtis (Rozier needs to get in better shape) Brian Rose in the other hand was a bull dog but very average ML talent.

[Mr Crunchy]

average is giving rose much credit at the mlb level

he didnt have it

who was the pitcher who severed the nerves on his hand??

i thought that was curtice

anyone remember pax crawford??

he too had a big start for the sox,turned out he was a roid boy

 

anyway

this business is an in exact science with a lot of luck needed to be successful

[jacksonianmarch]

another thing to consider is that the media helps inflate the sox organizations own prospects. They should use that to their advantage sometimes rather than cut bait too late or too early.

[Mr Crunchy]

speaking of hype and flame throwing lefties

hows brian taylor doing these days??

 

is he still working for that giant perdue plant on route 13 next to his mother who beat steinbrenner out of a million??

[jacksonianmarch]

speaking of hype and flame throwing lefties

hows brian taylor doing these days??

 

is he still working for that giant perdue plant on route 13 next to his mother who beat steinbrenner out of a million??

 

Yeah, I remember watching that guy get interviewed after he signed. Then he gets into a fight, busts up his hand and never makes it back.

 

I feel as if the yankee system was overhyped to the gills after Jeter, Pettitte, Mo, and Posada made it. As you could see, the rest of the guys who came out of the system during that time frame never lived up to expectations. Guzman, Claussen, Hansen, Milton, Westbrook. All okay to good players who never lived up to the hype. That led the media to underhype the yankee system and then Wang, Cano, and Melky helped fix that. It is a continuum. It just seems as if sox prospects get the bulk of the hype the majority of the time.

[scaffolds]

average is giving rose much credit at the mlb level

he didnt have it

who was the pitcher who severed the nerves on his hand??

i thought that was curtice

anyone remember pax crawford??

he too had a big start for the sox,turned out he was a roid boy

 

anyway

this business is an in exact science with a lot of luck needed to be successful

 

No Curtis was a LHP out of the Virginia H.S., the pitcher you are talking about (can't remember his name) was a flame throwing RHP out of Texas (H.S.) he cut his ring finger (I believe) and damaged his tendon that he couldn't pitch again, but i believe that he tried to make a come back as an outfielder if i am not mistaken with Detroit and couldn't cut it.