RJ back to the Diamondbacks??

[jacksonianmarch]

Paps had a SHOULDER injury; starting will prevent it. Therefore there's not a lot to worry about.

 

starting wont prevent it. Not playing will prevent it. They HOPE that starting will avoid it, but it is still a possibility my friend.

[Gom]

I love how everyone thinks Wang will digress and come back to earth. Best sinker in the majors, and he will suck. LOL! However, the same people expect Schilling to improve considering his age and increased profinity towards injury. Are we all that blind when it comes to our teams?

 

The Yankee pen has one incredible pitcher and a bunch of nobodies [check that, Myers is really effective in his role]. The Sox pen blows. The Sox rotation is a bit of a mess with a slew of question marks. The Yankee rotation is even worse at this point.

 

Both teams have such incredible offenses that they are literally assured of playing in October.

 

However, unless both teams address their pitching woes, it's going to be a short October.

 

There are always surprises in baseball, especially in the bullpen. If you asked me about Papelbon last year, I would have told you it was something you could find at Cinnabon.

 

It seems that both teams are moving in the right direction this offseason. Should be fun.

[riverside sluggers]

I think the majority of Sox fans are not expecting Schilling to be again a 20 Win, 3.5 ERA guy, 215+ innings, 200+ Ks. Myself Im expecting he'll still be a solid pitcher none the less for the Sox. Something like 13-16 wins, 4.25ish ERA, 200 +/- innings, 175-200 Ks

 

This is his last season, Id say he's got the motivation to finish out on top

[ORS]

Everyone thinks Wang is due for some regression because, typically, pitchers good at generating weak contact are also good at missing bats. Wang doesn't miss bats, and he doesn't generate the weak contact that so many Yankee fans claim he does. His BABIP was right about league average, and BABIP is essentially a gauge of how hard the ball is getting hit. I watched more than 1/2 his starts last year, and he seemed to benefit a whole lot from the ball being hit right at a fielder. When someone was on base, these resulted in a high amount of double-plays (which aren't happening if the ball is hit weakly). His xFIP was 4.35, which is where I would expect him to pitch going forward. A low 4 ERA is good in the ALE, so he'll be a serviceable middle of the rotation pitcher. Good, but not remarkable.

 

Oh, and, he doesn't have the best sinker in baseball. Brandon Webb does. I also question how much of his success is due to his sinker and how much is due to the Yankee grounds crew. ERA of 3.03 vs. 4.35 and G/F ratios of 3.27 vs. 2.41 at home and away. With the range on display in that IF, I think the grass is allowed to grow a bit. There's nothing wrong with that, but it is a factor to consider when rating Wang's talent.

[TheKilo]

Jacko, my feelings about the Yankee ro are what I see out of them. Yeah, Schilling is a year older, but I think he will be right in line with what Mussina does this year.

 

Like it or not, Pettite's shoulder is a question mark. He needs to prove he can be an ALE pitcher again before I can pencil him in for 200 innings and a high 3/low 4 ERA, which is what you seem to be projecting for him.

 

As for Wang, how many times must it be said that his peripheral numbers aren't as good as last year would indicate? Much like Melky Cabrera's "plate discipline", it needs to happen longer than one year before you can call it a trend. If he's got such a plus pitch, why doesn't he miss more bats? If he's got the ability to strike guys out, why doesn't he? I'm not saying he can't be a "new breed" of contact pitcher, but until he does it for more than one year could we hold off on the praises a little bit? He WAS the luckiest pitcher in baseball, after all. Compare him to Brandon Webb, who struck out 178 batters in 235 innings (Wang struck out 76 in 218), and it just doesn't make any sense.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Igawa's potential was to be a #4 starter, correct? You and a lot of other Yankee fans have said it, and that is the transition from Japan to the MLB can be a very difficult one. Igawa doesn't have Matsuzaka's pedigree. Matsuzaka projects to be the best Japanese MLB pitcher ever. Calling for 200 innings from a guy who projects to be a #4 and doesn't have a real plus pitch is a bit of a stretch. 200 innings in Japan is not the same as 200 in the MLB.

 

And as for the 5 spot in their rotation, you better hope its Clemens.

 

 

Oh and by the way, who in the back end of the Yankee pen (other than Mo) strikes fear in the hearts of MLB batters? Chris Britton? Brian Bruney? teh pr0FF3ss0r?

[jacksonianmarch]

Jacko, my feelings about the Yankee ro are what I see out of them. Yeah, Schilling is a year older, but I think he will be right in line with what Mussina does this year.

 

Like it or not, Pettite's shoulder is a question mark. He needs to prove he can be an ALE pitcher again before I can pencil him in for 200 innings and a high 3/low 4 ERA, which is what you seem to be projecting for him.

 

As for Wang, how many times must it be said that his peripheral numbers aren't as good as last year would indicate? Much like Melky Cabrera's "plate discipline", it needs to happen longer than one year before you can call it a trend. If he's got such a plus pitch, why doesn't he miss more bats? If he's got the ability to strike guys out, why doesn't he? I'm not saying he can't be a "new breed" of contact pitcher, but until he does it for more than one year could we hold off on the praises a little bit? He WAS the luckiest pitcher in baseball, after all. Compare him to Brandon Webb, who struck out 178 batters in 235 innings (Wang struck out 76 in 218), and it just doesn't make any sense.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Igawa's potential was to be a #4 starter, correct? You and a lot of other Yankee fans have said it, and that is the transition from Japan to the MLB can be a very difficult one. Igawa doesn't have Matsuzaka's pedigree. Matsuzaka projects to be the best Japanese MLB pitcher ever. Calling for 200 innings from a guy who projects to be a #4 and doesn't have a real plus pitch is a bit of a stretch. 200 innings in Japan is not the same as 200 in the MLB.

 

And as for the 5 spot in their rotation, you better hope its Clemens.

 

 

Oh and by the way, who in the back end of the Yankee pen (other than Mo) strikes fear in the hearts of MLB batters? Chris Britton? Brian Bruney? teh pr0FF3ss0r?

 

Pettitte's shoulder is not the question. People are questioning an elbow that allowed him to make 68 starts the last 2 yrs. His production is a worry, but it is not like a guy who has never been here before. Aside from a 15 start stretch of s*** to start the yr, he has been a dominant pitcher over the last 68 starts. I find it very funny that a guy who is still in his prime who has shoveled s*** down the throats of the sox for 9 years is all of a sudden a question mark. He'll have a low 4's era and will eat innings. Bank it.

 

As for Igawa, whomever told you he hasnt a plus pitch is lying. He has a plus curve, a MLB average fastball and a plus changeup. As with other japanese pitchers, he has about 5 pitches, but 2 are plus and 3 total are MLB pitches. The reason why I say he is a lock for 200IP is that he has done it to a T in the Japanese league. He has more durability than Matsuzaka.

 

Over the last 6 years, Igawa has made 22 more starts than Matsuzaka, which is 3/4 of a japanese season. They have about the same IP/start. Igawa at 198IP/season, Matsuzaka 175IP/season. Igawa has averaged 187K per season as well. Matsuzaka 177. I will NEVER say that Igawa is in Matsuzaka's class, but give Igawa his due. Matsuzaka has missed large chunks of 2 out of the last 5 years. Igawa has been healthy for every season since 2001. The idea of Igawa throwing 200IP in 33-35 starts rather than 29 in a Japanese season is not foreign. What he produces is foreign.

[riverside sluggers]

I dont think Matsuzaka is going to be a 5-6 inning type of guy with essence of pavano injury worrisome

[jacksonianmarch]

I dont think Matsuzaka is going to be a 5-6 inning type of guy with essence of pavano injury worrisome

 

I agree. He wont be a short inning kinda guy. He'll be good and he will eat innings. But to build him as an ace and to throw away Igawa as a 4 is hypocritical to say the least.

[kreinbihl34]

I never heard of Igawa as having a plus change. When he was bought by the Yankees every scout anywhere said he had a nice curve and a fastball that was very average, it wasn't fast and it didn't have alot of movement. Like you have said about Beckett, you cant get by with two pitches. Remember Beckett last year? He was able to blow by some guys and without the heat he would of had a 7 era. If Igawa has two plus pitches like Beckett but throws slower, what is that going to equal in the AL East?

[CrespoBlows]

I agree. He wont be a short inning kinda guy. He'll be good and he will eat innings. But to build him as an ace and to throw away Igawa as a 4 is hypocritical to say the least.

 

That logic makes little sense, to say the least. What you seem to be saying is that, if Kyle Snyder and Matsuzaka came over this year, we'd have to say that Snyder could be at least a number four?

 

I'm not discounting Igawa, because he's making the transition from the Japanese league to MLB, we're discounting him because of his weak fastball, and bad scouting reports.

[jacksonianmarch]

I never heard of Igawa as having a plus change. When he was bought by the Yankees every scout anywhere said he had a nice curve and a fastball that was very average' date=' it wasn't fast and it didn't have alot of movement. Like you have said about Beckett, you cant get by with two pitches. Remember Beckett last year? He was able to blow by some guys and without the heat he would of had a 7 era. If Igawa has two plus pitches like Beckett but throws slower, what is that going to equal in the AL East?[/quote']

 

Here is a Seattle Mariner scouting report on him posted on Nov 11th (prior to when the yankees nabbed his rights).

 

Note: This report will not be nearly as extensive as the report on Daisuke Matsuzaka for many reasons. One, I’m reserved to use the opinions of two clubs’ international scouting directors, rather than a slew of scouts.

 

So, I’ll be adding in my own thoughts after spending the past several hours watching video of Igawa, from both 2005 and 2006.

 

Kei Igawa stands a shade over 6 feet tall and weighs in at about 190 pounds, but pitches much bigger and tougher than that. He’s fashioned himself a power pitcher, and though his fastball is more than a tick above Major League average, the 27-year-old reminds some of a current Seattle Mariners, as far as velocity goes.

 

“He does make me think of (Jarrod) Washburn,” says one NL Central scout who was assigned to Matsuzaka, and later Igawa by his employers, who were expected to be serious contenders for both pitchers this offseason. “He’s got a little swagger in him, more than Matsuzaka, at least demonstrably. He’ll sit right in the 90mph range until he needs a big strikeout and than he reaches back for added gas. But, like Washburn, he throws quite a few fastballs up in the zone and if he misses with it, it gets hit, and that will be big for him in the U.S,”

 

Igawa, however, who has 190 starts and nearly 1250 innings of work in parts of eight seasons, all with the Hanshin Tigers, has only allowed more than 17 home runs twice in his six full years, and allowed right at that number in 2006.

 

The southpaw isn’t as publicly touted as Matsuzaka, nor another left-handed starter to make the trip to the Western Hemisphere, Kazuhisa Ishii, who spent four seasons in the states before returning to Japan in 2006. But Igawa profiles somewhat similarly to Ishii, but the hopes are that he’s much more successful than his predecessor.

 

“Ishii was a disaster, but it may have been due to all the unknowns,” said the scout. “When you are evaluating a foreign player you have to take more than physical tools into consideration, and not many teams were doing that five, 10 years ago. Pretty much every club in the game has extended their homework these days. They can’t afford not to. With Igawa, he has more than just physical talents, as does Matsuzaka. They both know how to pitch, and should adjust enough to be solid to good major leaguers.”

 

So what does Igawa do well?

 

“He attacks hitters, and very aggressively,” said the scout. “It’s not a secret that he’s going to come after hitters, but as soon as the batter thinks he’s got it figured out, he gets a pretty good change thrown at him out of nowhere. Igawa is a pretty adept at mixing things up effectively, while doing a decent job of staying within himself. At times he’ll try and throw one 120 miles per hour or throw the greatest breaking ball ever, but he’s been able to fend off those urges, at least the past two years.”

 

So, what’s he got?

 

“He uses a four-seamer in the 88-91 mph range, with that 92+ capability on occasion, and an above-average change that I had in the 78-81 mph area. His breaking ball is a solid slider he’ll throw mostly to lefthanders, though he did use it to backdoor some right-handed bats.

 

“It looked like he was playing with a different heater in some starts, perhaps a two-seamer or a sinker of some sorts, but his command of that pitch was very ordinary. His overall control is above average and he’ll probably need to be aware of the base on balls in America.

 

“He gets most of his strikeouts on the change and the fastball up in the zone, and I suspect he’s going to continue that trend wherever he ends up. His ground ball tendencies aren’t heavy enough to think he can be considered even a mild version of a ground ball pitcher, and the best hitters in the world will get more lift on his pitches.”

 

What I saw of Igawa, mostly this year’s version, showed that he has no problem trying to bite off a righties’ toes with that slider, that sat in the 80-83 mph range. It also appears that he changes speeds - and planes - on it to give it more of a curve ball type appearance. The grades I have seen on the slider don’t match what I saw. I think his slider is a little bit better than he’s been given credit for, at least compared to what I have read and heard.

 

The scout is a 13-year veteran and has six years experience in Japan, Korea, China, some areas of Eastern Europe and has dabbled in the Latin Americas, too. His overall assessment of Igawa is very much along the the lines of what the Seattle Mariners need to be doing, and might very well be trying to execute.

 

“Kei is going to be a very good value to someone, and we have a lot of interest in him, too,” he said. “I know two other clubs in our division (NL Central) really think that way also, and the Dodgers, Mariners, Rangers and Angels have scouted him pretty extensively as well.

 

“He’s a fringe frontline guy, for me, somewhere between that innings eater at No. 4 and the occasional dominant start that good No. 3’s can display five or six times a year. Is he Mark Buehrle? He might be better, but that’s a decent comp. I liken him to guys like Wolf (Randy), Buehrle, or someone like Noah Lowry in style.

 

“I don’t expect his strikeout numbers to hold up, but I am going to recommend him as a legit No. 3/4, and I think if he’s paid that way it’s a solid get.”

 

Clubs vying for Igawa, as for Matsuzaka, do have to consider the posting fee when tabbing the talent’s value to their roster. For Seattle, is a $10 million posting fee and a three-year, $13 million contract a good investment on Kei Igawa? That’s three years and $23 million snaps, or nearly eight million smacks per season. That’s No. 2 starter money, and I was being fairly conservative on the above financials.

 

I say, if the Mariners, or any club can snag him for less than $10 mil posting and about $6 mil per season, it might be worth doing so. But that’s a big risk since he’s not the type of arm to lead your club to championships.

 

Looks like the Cubs, Orioles, Cardinals and Giants are all over him, too.

[jacksonianmarch]

I never heard of Igawa as having a plus change. When he was bought by the Yankees every scout anywhere said he had a nice curve and a fastball that was very average' date=' it wasn't fast and it didn't have alot of movement. Like you have said about Beckett, you cant get by with two pitches. Remember Beckett last year? He was able to blow by some guys and without the heat he would of had a 7 era. If Igawa has two plus pitches like Beckett but throws slower, what is that going to equal in the AL East?[/quote']

 

you have to distinguish plus pitches from total pitches. Beckett has 3 pitches, 2 are plus. But when he lost faith in the change and couldnt get the curve over, he seriously was a one pitch pitcher. An average pitch can still be effective in the majors, it just wont be a frontline pitch. There are a good amount of pitchers who pitch well with 4 non-plus pitches but on command and control.

[jacksonianmarch]

Randy and the DBacks have agreed on a 1yr 10mil extension. A physical awaits tomorrow and he will be a DBack. Bye Randy.

[riverside sluggers]

“He’s a fringe frontline guy, for me, somewhere between that innings eater at No. 4 and the occasional dominant start that good No. 3’s can display five or six times a year. Is he Mark Buehrle? He might be better, but that’s a decent comp. I liken him to guys like Wolf (Randy), Buehrle, or someone like Noah Lowry in style.

 

Igawa is being compared to Mark Buehrle or even better? Im sorry I dont see that comparison holding merit

[jacksonianmarch]

Igawa is being compared to Mark Buehrle or even better? Im sorry I dont see that comparison holding merit

 

Which Buerhle, the one from 2 yrs ago or the guy from last yr. Thing is, none of us have any idea what he is going to do. Chances are, nobody has ever seen him pitch aside from selected youtube games. All we have are scouting reports and it sounds like both japanese plers have very different reports.

[riverside sluggers]

He doesnt have the stuff to even be a 3 in the tough hitting AL East. I clearly do laugh at reports that compare him to Buehrle who still has the stuff to be an ace of his staff. I should expect possibility of Igawa helping shape an ace combo of Hughes/Igawa??

[jacksonianmarch]

How do you know what kind of stuff he has?? Some scouts say 91-92+ fastball. Other say 86-88. Some say plus slider. Other say plus curve. Some say plus change, some say average change. Some say great poise, others say he can be rattled. We have NO idea what his stuff is. All I know is that the kid is durable and can K people. Thats it.

[a700hitter]

Jacko' date=' my feelings about the Yankee ro are what I see out of them. Yeah, Schilling is a year older, but I think he will be right in line with what Mussina does this year.[/quote']The difference between the two is that Schilling has the heart of a lion and Moose is a whining wimp that folds when things don't go his way. Moose put on the salary drive last year to get one more big contract. I fully expect him to break down early in 2007 and to be very mediocre.

[jacksonianmarch]

The difference between the two is that Schilling has the heart of a lion and Moose is a whining wimp that folds when things don't go his way. Moose put on the salary drive last year to get one more big contract. I fully expect him to break down early in 2007 and to be very mediocre.

 

more wishing and wanting. Predictable 700.

[a700hitter]

more wishing and wanting. Predictable 700.

Of course, I would welcome a bad year by Moose, but the pattern for this guy in the last few years has been that he has been breaking down more often. If he stays healthy, I stand by my opinion that he is a whining weanie.

 

Edit: You might say that Moose breaking down is predictable.

[jacksonianmarch]

Moose getting injured is definitely something you could predict. But saying that he'll decline is not doing your homework. He fixed his stuff to adjust for age. His stuff will keep him a top half of he rotation starter. But his issues with staying healthy are certainly a worry. He did throw 197IP last yr though, so he isnt too bad.

[TheKilo]

Elbow, shoulder whatever. If Pettite's father said he's an injury risk (I think ORS said that), then he's an injury risk. I think he'd know better.

 

I also hope the Yankees look for a significant contribution from Igawa. It will be a decided advantage from the Red Sox if he has to be a consistent producer.

[a700hitter]

He did throw 197IP last yr though' date=' so he isnt too bad.[/quote']Not surprising. It was a contract year.

[jacksonianmarch]

Elbow, shoulder whatever. If Pettite's father said he's an injury risk (I think ORS said that), then he's an injury risk. I think he'd know better.

 

I also hope the Yankees look for a significant contribution from Igawa. It will be a decided advantage from the Red Sox if he has to be a consistent producer.

 

Lets put it this way. If Igawa sucks over here, then that package of minor leaguers (excluding Hughes) will be put to use for a starter on the market, and no more shitbum fringe #5 starters. You might wanna hope that Igawa is durable yet somewhat crappy. That keeps him in the rotation, but not effective.

[a700hitter]

Lets put it this way. If Igawa sucks over here' date=' then that package of minor leaguers (excluding Hughes) will be put to use for a starter on the market, and no more shitbum fringe #5 starters. You might wanna hope that Igawa is durable yet somewhat crappy. That keeps him in the rotation, but not effective.[/quote']Yeah, I can see the Yankkes re-packaging that bag of garbage that they have gathered up this off-season and have the Twins offering Johan.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, I can see the Yankkes re-packaging that bag of garbage that they have gathered up this off-season and have the Twins offering Johan.

 

The cubs will be sold this yr. The cubs will be out of the NL Central race by June. Zambrano will be dealt. Bank it. Where he goes, who knows, but he will be traded this yr. And I have a feeling Santana will as well. The twins are gonna be horrible this yr.

[a700hitter]

The cubs will be sold this yr. The cubs will be out of the NL Central race by June. Zambrano will be dealt. Bank it. Where he goes' date=' who knows, but he will be traded this yr. And I have a feeling Santana will as well. The twins are gonna be horrible this yr.[/quote']Neither one is going anywhere for that bag of garbage you got this off-season.

[jacksonianmarch]

Neither one is going anywhere for that bag of garbage you got this off-season.

 

700, if you had a clue about what the yankees got in return this offseason and what they are expected to become with a full season at AAA, then you'd recant the above statement. I will say this though. By midseason, you will be very envious of what our potential becomes. Trades or in our own rotation. Patience my friend.

[a700hitter]

700' date=' if you had a clue about what the yankees got in return this offseason and what they are expected to become with a full season at AAA, then you'd recant the above statement. I will say this though. By midseason, you will be very envious of what our potential becomes. Trades or in our own rotation. Patience my friend.[/quote']I don't need to be patient. I hate the Yankees, and in the first trip to the stadium I'll be very happy to face Karstens of some other Bush Leaguer rather than Unit. You are the one that needs to be patient.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't need to be patient. I hate the Yankees' date=' and in the first trip to the stadium I'll be very happy to face Karstens of some other Bush Leaguer rather than Unit. You are the one that needs to be patient.[/quote']

 

I will be patient. For too long my yankee brethren have yearned for the right now, only to watch the team fall flat on their face with no future hope aside from bags of cash. Now, we have a team that could win right now and has the future ahead of them that is bright. Assimilating young talent into a mix of proven winners is the way of the yankee dynasty. We shall see if another one crops up.