RJ back to the Diamondbacks??

[jacksonianmarch]

Rumors have been flying around, and while I was away for a few days, I still kept my ear to the ground. The dbacks offered 3 B level prospects and the promise to eat the entire salary. The Yankees turned them down flat. The DBacks have a very deep prospect base, but are unwilling to part with one of their top 5 pitching prospects or one of their top five hitting prospects. Therefore, it wont get done.

 

As for another team in the race, SD is the frontrunner. Rumor has it, they want RJ at 10 mil a season, asking the yankees to eat 6 mil. But they are apparently willing to throw Scott Linebrink, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and a prospect for him. That package is being mulled, but Randy would have to waive his NT to go there, and that is not certain yet.

 

As for how this all started, a few weeks ago, Randy's brother died. Cashman called with his condolences and essentially, the call ended in a "I wouldnt mind being closer to home" bit out of Randy. It was not a trade demand, but enough to get the wheels turning. Cashman is trying to shed some payroll and get more flexible, but we'll see if this is all wheels spinning.

 

Overall, I hate the idea. Randy at his worst last season still at 200IP and won 17 games. As I pointed out, his peripherals were pretty good despite a poor ERA. This was attributed to his inability to avoid the big inning (OPSw/RISP and OPSw/runner one was 200+ points higher than at any point in his career). Therefore a pretty good WHIP and a good K and BB rate translated into a horrible ERA. You put his peripherals from last season against Schilling and you have nearly the same pitcher (more BB on RJs side and more hits on Schillings side). I do not expect him to improve per se, but I think his ability to avoid the big inning is something that his career dictates will return and hence his era will slide, possibly dramatically. Either way, when he returns, which should be by the middle of april at the latest, he will still be in line for a lot of wins and a lot of innings eaten. That is what the yankees need.

 

At the same time, last yr I was very hard on the red sox when they dealt a guy who ate innings for offense. Dealing RJ for Kouzmanoff may be real nice, and adding a piece to the pen like Linebrink can only help, but without some sort of contingency plan in the rotation, I hate the idea. We saw the red sox trim 6 to 5 and before you knew it only one was standing. While I think the yankees are in a different position altogether in depth, dealing from a position of depth in starting pitching is playing with fire. If the yankees keep RJ, they will have a rotation that looks like this.

 

1. Wang

2. Mussina

3. Pettitte

4. Johnson

5. Pavano

Igawa in AAA

 

Without RJ

1. Wang

2. Mussina

3. Pettitte

4. Pavano

5. Igawa

 

But we are in a different boat than the sox were. Karstens and Rasner both had good debuts in the Bronx last season, proving that at the very least they could be serviceable 5's and go deep into games. Hughes and Sanchez are in AAA and both have the label of MLB ready. Steven White was in the class of Karstens and Rasner and is likely major league ready as well with the caveat that he is likely no better than a 5. So the depth is there. But throwing away a 200IP 17 win machine like Johnson better get a little pitching depth in return. If the "prospect" from SD is a high level starting pitching prospect with no injury history, then I will sign on the deal right away. But if the prospect is another fielder or a reliever, I say no dice.

[Mr Crunchy]

if they move rj for anyone who isnt capable of pitching 200 innings i would consider the move stupid and would consider it a belated xmas gift for the redsox

[jacksonianmarch]

if they move rj for anyone who isnt capable of pitching 200 innings i would consider the move stupid and would consider it a belated xmas gift for the redsox

 

me too.

[Mr Crunchy]

david wells would still have a job if he wanted 1 in baseball

 

theres just not enuff lefties for everyone to go around

[BSN07]

Yanks Want Three Arms For Unit

Yesterday for the East Valley Tribune, Jack Magruder indicated that the Yankees want a trio of young arms from the Diamondbacks in return for Randy Johnson. They want one reliever in the group.

 

Brandon Medders, a 27 year-old right-handed reliever, is said to be a target. Medders posted a solid 3.64 ERA in 71 innings in 2006, though his 1.68 K/BB ratio is cause for concern. Magruder indicates that Arizona wants to substitute the pricier Luis Vizcaino instead of Medders.

 

The other pitchers would come out of this group: Edgar Gonzalez, Enrique Gonzalez, Dustin Nippert, Ross Ohlendorf, and Micah Owings. What, no Juan Cruz? Baseball Prospectus's Kevin Goldstein lists Nippert as a "good prospect" and Owings as an "average prospect." The others aren't in the team's top 10. That might be a testament to all the young talent in the organization though.

 

Magruder doesn't expect the D'Backs to meet this Yankee demand, but perhaps the teams can meet in the middle

 

 

I hate the damn NYY, but I have to give it up to Cashman, that SOB could sell ketchup to a tomato farmer. He got three decent prospects for a player coming off of major wrist injury and is past his prime, if he gets 2-3 prospects and passes all of RJ salary to some other team I will be in awe.

 

Theo has made a couple decent trades, OC and The Beckett/Lowell package( ya we gave up alot but Beckett is going to be a frontline starter for us I believe), but they are nothing compared to what Cashman gets, its like he takes a old BMW that has 300K miles on it, no back tires, and a engine the runs on 2 cylinders and gets back all his money plus a couple of new Mustangs.

[Mr Crunchy]

hate the damn NYY, but I have to give it up to Cashman, that SOB could sell ketchup to a tomato farmer. He got three decent prospects for a player coming off of major wrist injury and is past his prime, if he gets 2-3 prospects and passes all of RJ salary to some other team I will be in awe

 

i do kind of like cashman but hes not above criticism

he traded his most feared hitter for these 3 guys

none of which will help him win this season

 

hes also the guy who traded contreras for.....javier vasquez who they dumped for....

randy johnson

he also traded jeff weaver for kevin brown and soriano for arod

 

i think hes a good baseball guy who takes his orders from someone else

theres not a lot of independant thinking in the bronx front office i feel

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

He didnt trade Contreas for Javier Vazquez. He traded Nick Johnson, Juna Rivera and someone else(I think Randy Choate) for Vazquez. He then traded Contreas for Estaban Loaiza.

[Mr Crunchy]

thanks for the correction sir

esteban loaiza

thats the ticket

 

by the way

i love the gabe kapler thing

[jacksonianmarch]

Mr. C. The direction was coming from elsewhere, and if the yankees went out and signed zito, you could assume the direction was continuing to come from elsewhere. But this approach by Cashman is to deepen the arms in the system, and he has done that. He has 3 top 10 pitchers in AAA, yet his most "promising" pitcher lies in single A that he got in the 8th round last yr. Joba is another guy who has shown amazing control and power thus far in the hawaiian league. Sufficed to say, he has restocked the farm with arms. And if he were to make a deal, young arms are the ticket to get what you want, so he has stocked himself up good. If he deals Randy for 3 pitchers, one middle reliever who can help this yr and 2 starters who could be ready this yr or next, then do it. Increasing depth in the pitching rotation is the fastest way to major league success long term. Johnson's dealing wont hurt the team in the form of losing an ace. It will hurt in the terms of saving bullpen. If we get a younger player who can eat innings while having an era near 5, then you do it. By no means would I want solely offense out of this. Good move if he can get it one.

[Mr Crunchy]

you can assume that barry zito isnt going to nyc and that the deal to arizona is pretty much in the shitter unless the yanks want to commit an early suicide in 07.

 

as far as the yanks building their farm goes

i agree

it was their modus operandi of success thruout the 90s and so long as steenberger had his hands out of the cookie jar the team and farm both fluorished

 

unfortunetly georgie had his hands back in the jar come the late 90s thru last year and the team failed

 

so

is cashman willing to deal their lefty for prospects now that zito is in sanfran or is cashman going to hang onto the old prick and make a run for the roses

i think if the yanks are serious they keep rj

[TheKilo]

RJ stays put now that Zito's in SF.

[26 to 6]

hate the damn NYY, but I have to give it up to Cashman, that SOB could sell ketchup to a tomato farmer. He got three decent prospects for a player coming off of major wrist injury and is past his prime, if he gets 2-3 prospects and passes all of RJ salary to some other team I will be in awe

 

i do kind of like cashman but hes not above criticism

he traded his most feared hitter for these 3 guys

none of which will help him win this season

 

hes also the guy who traded contreras for.....javier vasquez who they dumped for....

randy johnson

he also traded jeff weaver for kevin brown and soriano for arod

 

i think hes a good baseball guy who takes his orders from someone else

theres not a lot of independant thinking in the bronx front office i feel

Weaver for Brown, at the time, was considered a very good deal, conbsidering Brown, a big name, successful pitcher in the latter stages of his career would be coming to the Yankees for a year or 2, and we would be able to dump the colossal mistake that was Jeff Weaver, who we would have been stuck with for an extended amount of time. And Soriano, a below average fielder who strikes out and doesnt walk for one of the best players, argueably Top 5, in the history of the game sounded pretty sweet at the time, and honestly, still does.

 

 

Honestly, although I agree that it's smart to keep him, I wouldn't mind sending RJ back to Arizona, or anywhere for that matter, if we can get some relief help and some young guys. We have plenty of potential candidates to fill his void on a potentially great pitching staff. Both Rasner and Karstens can do it, or even perhaps a Henn type, or something. Or also, we still have Igawa and Pavano. Maybe having a spot open for him will motivate Pavano to turn it up in the spring and he turns out to be alright. And who knows with Igawa.

[example1]

He was only refering to the Randy Johnson for Barry Zito swap. You threw a microscope on the entire deal' date=' which has absolutely no relevence.[/quote']

 

if you can get rid of dead weight for something in return' date=' it is a great move. if your GM can get rid of Clement's salary and get prospects in return, I'd say that's a great move also.[/quote']

 

I guess if you're really micro-managing everything that its a "great" move. I would probably just be happy that RJ is gone if I'm the Yankees, but if you want to go bragging about it being a great move more power to you.

 

If Arizona gives up ANYONE that will end up in the majors for the Yankees then they are stupid, unless NYY pay almost all of RJs salary. This guy sucks at this point.

[example1]

Wow...I can't believe my comments went that far. First of all, signing RJ was lauded as a FANTASTIC move. Look at the numbers that RJ had the year before he came to the Yankees. I for one, thought he would be the missing piece. So did pretty much everyone. Now, hindsight is 20/20, but it sure looked like a great move. I would love to hear someone's logic to the contrary.

 

Secondly, before any of this happens, if it does, I have come here numerous times saying I would love to have Zito, before the Matsuzaka sweepstakes. Also, I have given credit to the Sox numerous times for getting him. However, giving Drew 70 million was a mistake, and the fact that the guy failed his physical may save the Sox from a tremendous mistake.

 

The fact that you call RJ a nightmare now is understandable. I don't believe you thought so beforehand.

 

If you start saying so, then I will admit that I thought Beckett would be one of the worst trades the Red Sox have made in 20 years when they made it. As well as I thought that Renteria was going to completely bomb in Boston after being an All-Star caliber shortstop in the NL for years. Also Clement was going to suck royally, and Arroyo would be a first half Cy Young candidate, and Crisp would be an utter waste.

 

Are you starting to get the picture?

 

RJ was a great deal when it happened. It didn't pan out that way. The fact that the Yankees can get a prospect or two, or maybe even Linebrink, and not eat any salary, and use that money to get Zito is a fantastic move for the Yankees, if they can pull it off. Period.

 

Hindsight is 20/20, you're right. While your assessment of some of the Sox moves seems off (Crisp is not an utter waste), I hear ya nonetheless. It would be LUCKY for the Yankees to be able to move RJ. Not a great move. It would depend on a really stupid move by Arizona. People aren't going to come out to see RJ once they realize he's no good. The guy can't hit 93 anymore.

[jacksonianmarch]

Johnson for Zito is futile now, but I never advocated it. Zito in NY would have been a huge mistake. Johnson right now would be a solid #4 pitcher in NY and would eat 200 innings at least. At best, he is an ace who owns. But then again, the yankees have 5 options other than Johnson that are capable of eating innings plus 2 guys who had a good debut last yr as well as a bunch of young kids ready to make the leap. Dealing Johnson is not something that will detonate our chances of winning. But dealing Johnson better have its benefits. In that deal, I would expect the yankees to add pitching. Potentially one young MLB ready pitcher who could repeat RJ's last season performance (200+IP and a 5ERA). If they can get that plus more, then do it. Otherwise, the 43 yr old creaky backed, bad kneed, bad attituded big bird is more worthwhile here than in another organization. In the NLW he will be an ace again. In the ALE, he is a mid rotation pitcher.

[jacksonianmarch]

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/484072p-407473c.html

 

This is getting interesting. The NY Daily is reporting that the yanks and dbacks are closing in on a deal here. The report is that the yankees have asked for a middle reliever (Medders is their top option but Vizcaino is a guy who may be available) plus two top pitching prospects and from the sounds of it, the dbacks are willing to oblige. The rationale for the dbacks is that their gate attendance plummetted after they went belly up and nobody is going back to the games, even though they were in the race last season and have a young core of exciting position players. So they need a gate attraction, and Johnson is precisely what they want to return the team to championship attendance.

 

As for the holdup, the dbacks want to negotiate an extension with RJ which will take trade negotiations into next week.

 

If Cashman gets 2 power pitching prospects then he is amazing.

 

Here are the 3 pitchers in question, 2 of which may be heading to NY

 

Micah Owings- just turned 24. Is 6'5". Was a combined 16-2 between AAA and AA last season with a 3.33ERA in 162IP. He gave up a hit per inning, K'd 130 and walked 52. He is a power pitcher in his first season as a starter in the minors after being in the pen after being drated out of tulane in 05. He is the DBacks #4 prospect in the organization, which is saying something.

 

Dustin Nippert. 25yr old 6'8" power pitcher with a solid curveball. Had much success in the minors and earned a callup in 05, pitching in 3 starts, going 1-0 with an era north of 5. Last season, had a rough yr in AAA going 13-8 in 140IP with an era of 4.87, 162 hits, 132K's and 52BB. Over his minor league career, he started as a power pitcher with no control. Now, his control is improving and projects as a #3 pitcher with the ceiling of a #1. He needs to develop a third pitch in order to have continued success in the majors. He is following the career path of the player he might be traded for. Tall, lanky, lacking control initially, then finding it late.

 

Ross Ohlendorf may be the best of them all. He turned 24 in August. He is a 6'4" 235lb "bulldog" who tops out in the high 90s but has plus control. Out of Princeton, this kid has shown amazing command for a power pitcher, walking on 29 in 182IP in AA/AAA last season. He was 10-8 with a 3.25ERA and had 129K's as well. Of all the pitchers in the minors for the dbacks, this kid has the frame and has already handled the load to be a 5th starter in the majors and handle a 200IP workload.

 

Their pitchers all seem to have power stuff but K much less than 1 per inning. It seems to be an organizational philosophy to cut down on walks and work location rather than blow it by these guys. All 3 of these pitchers have shown plus control while having good K rates, but all 3 gave up a hit per inning. Interesting. Another thing I like is that all 3 have a track record of durability and have gone to the 150IP plateau, which means they are ready for the jump- arm-wise - to the majors. If we can get Owings and Nippert or Ohlendorf, I'd be friggin ecstatic.

[26 Reasons to Hate Us]

good stuff jacks. I hope that report is right and that a deal is close. I found another article saying a deal is not imminent:

 

A person familiar with the process, who asked not to be identified because nothing has been consummated, said there is "nothing imminent" in the Randy Johnson trade talks. But there is some belief a resolution could be reached within a week.

 

http://www.nj.com/yankees/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-1/11673724485920.xml&coll=1

[jacksonianmarch]

good stuff jacks. I hope that report is right and that a deal is close. I found another article saying a deal is not imminent:

 

 

 

http://www.nj.com/yankees/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-1/11673724485920.xml&coll=1

 

but that same article says that a deal could be finalized by next week. Nothing is "imminent" so to speak right now, because the dbacks need to negotiate an extension. All I gotta say is, adding 2 power pitching AAA kids to the mix cannot hurt. Imagine if this deal gets done and Owings and Nippert are the guys coming over.

 

You have a rotation of

Wang- 27yrs old

Mussina- 38yrs old

Pettitte- 34yrs old

Igawa- 27yrs old

Pavano- 31yrs old

 

with a AAA rotation of

Hughes 20yrs old

Sanchez 23yrs old

Clippard 21yrs old

Owings 24yrs old

Nippert 25yrs old

 

with Chamberlain, Betances, and Kennedy in lower levels. MAN, that will be something. I have a feeling some of these kids will be considered untouchables and we'd turn around and deal the others in a package and get a pitcher who has some REAL MLB impact. I know Zambrano will be on the block this yr when the cubbies suck, and they will. I wonder if Minny falls out of it, would they, could they. I wont even finish that dream.

[Mr Crunchy]

You have a rotation of

Wang- 27yrs old

Mussina- 38yrs old

Pettitte- 34yrs old

Igawa- 27yrs old

Pavano- 31yrs old

 

i find it remarkable that anyone who likes the yankees would pencil pavano into any scenario

i think if the yanks move rj i feel theyre not planning on winning in 07

you dont trade 200 ip and 17 wins if youre sincere about the here and now

[AlexanderTheGreat13]

To be honest I dont think RJ was giving us 200 innings this year anyway. He is coming off of major back surgery and some people dont expect him to be ready for opening day. So with that said I dont think he is a lock for 200 innings and 17 wins again.

[jacksonianmarch]

The top 3 can be penned in. The last 2 can be pencilled in. The fact is, RJ's production from last season is replaceable so long as you have a guy who can give you innings. Pavano, if healthy (LOLOLOLOLOL) can do that. If he isnt healthy (more like when), then you have a stable of young pitchers available. I like our top 3. They should average 200 innings pitched which will be the anchor of the rotation. Igawa is a mystery, but his biggest asset is durability, and 200IP out of him is certainly a possibility. Durability as a 4 is something the yankees have lacked since 03. That leaves the 5 hole. If Pavano is actually "working his ass off" in florida and comes into camp in shape and healthy, he will be a fine #5. If he comes in and his ass actually fell off (which is a possibility) then you have 2 guys who had successful debuts in the bronx last yr in Karstens and Rasner. Next in line would be the 2 kids picked up in the RJ trade and then you hit the top 3 that the yankees currently own.

 

I will give you this. Looking at the known quantities, RJ is certainly a guy I'd rather have right now, December 06 in my rotation. But his last season's performance isnt hard to recoup. He was 33rd out of 39 pitchers who qualified in the AL in ERA. He had 7.5 runs a game in run support. I find it hard to believe that touted rookies will give you less so long as they stay healthy. And it isnt like I am asking these kids to be #3 or #2 starters. I am asking them to be #5's. And if they rise the ranks then fine. And I am certainly not relying on one rookie like the sox did with Lester last season. If RJ gets dealt and 2 top 10's come over, the yankees will have 5 top 10 pitchers in their AAA rotation. THAT is depth, that allows for them to find which one or two can be good. Depth is what makes pitching staffs effective. You cannot go into a season without contingency plans. Add to that, the fact that the yankees have probably the best offense in baseball and a damn good bullpen, and you have the fertile ground to foster the growth of one of these kids. I mean christ, it is about friggin time one of our teams developed a reliable pitcher. Over the past few yrs we have each developed 1, Wang on our side, and Paps on yours (as a closer, jury is still out as a starter).

[BudLight]

Maybe, just maybe what Cashman has been stating all Winter is true. He is building a stable of young pitchers for the future. I have no problem with that. Seems to me the last time the Yankees were serious about building from within, they went on a pretty good run of WS championships. Good strategy, RJ is useless after 2007 (maybe before depending on his back), Mussina is getting close to retirement and Pettite is a question mark after 2007 ( he wasn't even sure he would pitch in 2007). With the price of pitchers this off-season it's a much better bet to build your own replacements than have to deal on the FA market next Winter.

[jacksonianmarch]

Well, it is the one thing the yankees could not consistently buy. Great pitchers get locked up prior to FA. Good pitchers mostly get locked up prior to FA and a rare few make it to FA. Those that do get bids from tons of teams believing they are the final piece,hence the price is fantastically high. Overall, if you want to get the best pitchers in baseball, you either develop them or trade for them. Building a stable of young power arms (aside from Clippard) is a great way to maybe find the next great pitcher. It also allows you to package a few and deal them off for a great pitcher right now. Cashman knows how the game is played, and I think he is dipping into our past trying to make our future solid.

 

I also love how he saved our draft pick this yr. This draft is supposed to be incredibly deep and with the yankees deep pockets, they may be able to sign a few guys who would initially be deemed unsignable. We finally have a decent head to go on the yankee shoulders. If you add the financial power to a great farm, then you have the makeup for one hell of an organization. Cash is doing it right. If that means we sacrifice today for tomorrow, so be it.

[jacksonianmarch]

plus, if you can trade a guy coming off back surgery who is 43 and has one yr left on his contract for 2 top notch pitchers, 1 who may actually be a success in a yankee uniform for years to come, then do it, and do it NOW.

[Mr Crunchy]

cant argue with that logic men

 

but come september when you have iguana coming into fenway in a must win situation you may regret this

 

for the 1st time in 10 years i feel the yankees are making a bank

its good long term stategy but its not conducive to a win at all costs mentality that has perservered in the bronx since 1973

[BudLight]

cant argue with that logic men

 

but come september when you have iguana coming into fenway in a must win situation you may regret this

 

for the 1st time in 10 years i feel the yankees are making a bank

its good long term stategy but its not conducive to a win at all costs mentality that has perservered in the bronx since 1973

 

Agreed Sean, but I like the "new" strategy by Cashman. In building for the future they may be sacrificing the near term, but, with that offense I don't think you can really count them out in 07. Plus, they have some major league ready arms in AAA right now. Their effectiveness in the show has yet to be proven, but you could say the same about the Tigers young staff last year.

[Mr Crunchy]

if i were you bb

i too would prefer this operational change

 

its out of the stick michael book of baseball that did the yanks so well over the years

it was only when the felonious ********** demanded a win at all costs mentality did the yanks actually stop winning

 

anyone realize the yanks havent won a title with a payroll over 100M?

in fact

i think the 04 sox were the only team in bball history to win a title with a payroll over 100M

[BudLight]

if i were you bb

i too would prefer this operational change

 

its out of the stick michael book of baseball that did the yanks so well over the years

it was only when the felonious ********** demanded a win at all costs mentality did the yanks actually stop winning

 

anyone realize the yanks havent won a title with a payroll over 100M?

in fact

i think the 04 sox were the only team in bball history to win a title with a payroll over 100M

 

 

No argument there. Again, I root for the name on the front of the jersey, not the folks in the FO.

[jacksonianmarch]

if i were you bb

i too would prefer this operational change

 

its out of the stick michael book of baseball that did the yanks so well over the years

it was only when the felonious ********** demanded a win at all costs mentality did the yanks actually stop winning

 

anyone realize the yanks havent won a title with a payroll over 100M?

in fact

i think the 04 sox were the only team in bball history to win a title with a payroll over 100M

 

Cashman is really making the farm pretty damn formidable. If he deals RJ and essentially has 5 top 10 pitchers in AAA as well as a durable major league rotation (1-4 at least) then you are doing your job. Add that to likely the best offense in baseball and the best closer in the history of the game (as well as a fireballing relief core aorund him) and you have a team set up for today and even better setup for tomorrow.

[riverside sluggers]

http://www.nj.com/sports/ledger/index.ssf?/base/sports-1/1167457026175360.xml&coll=1

 

The deal could be done as soon as today. The D-Backs should wear dunce caps if they actually bend over and assume all the $16 million owed to RJ this season