Why do we need a closer?

[RavenOfProphecy]

I know that it's conventional baseball wisdom that every team needs to have a designated closer on their roster. But I don't think it's really needed, and although bullpen-by-committee didn't work out too well in the playoffs, I think it's time to give it one more shot, as now we have a deep enough bullpen to successfully run it, in my opinion.

 

What are the chances that we're going to consistently have a ninth-inning save opportunity with a one-run lead? I don't see it happening that often in the MLB, and anything from two to three runs should be a piece of cake for any solid reliever. If they couldn't get through an inning without allowing a run, they wouldn't be in the MLB in the first place.

 

In fact, in the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, page 236, James simulated around 2,000 test seasons, and made a chart to show the percent likeliness of a team winning with or without their relief ace pitching in five different scenarios:

 

Situation, With Relief Ace/Without Relief Ace

-2 - 07.4%, 06.8%

-1 - 22.3%, 19.7%

+0 - 57.4%, 50.0%

+1 - 86.7%, 81.0%

+2 - 96.4%, 94.5%

+3 - 99.0%, 98.2%

 

So basically, the only time in which having and using a relief ace is markedly more valuable than a standard reliever is when you are either tied, or up by one run. Now, not many teams nowadays even use their closer for three outs in, say, the ninth inning, although there are a few exceptions, the Yankees with Mariano Rivera, for example. I think that the best time to use your relief ace would be when tied or leading by one, as it's either highly likely (up by 2+), or highly unlikely (losing) that you will win the game in any of the other situations.

 

Giving up a player who plays every day, such as Coco Crisp, for a Mike Gonzalez or an Akinori Otsuka, is an ill-advised decision, as a batter can play every game, but a closer might step into only 50 games a year, one out of three, and often when leading by two or three runs in a save opportunity just to fatten up his statistics in the same way slaves were greased up before going to market back in the 1800s, making them more attractive to other teams for a trade.

 

Let's take a look at the different pitchers on our team who might be counted on to save a game with this setup, shall we? Say we used a bullpen-by-committee of, say, Brendan Donnelly, Hideki Okajima, J.C. Romero, and Mike Timlin to close out our games. We know Timlin knows how to save a game - we've seen it multiple times. He's getting up there in age, but it's not like he was a spring chicken last year, either, or the year before that. Donnelly didn't blow a game all season last year. Okajima has a big curve and Romero held lefties to an on-base percentage of .298 last year. Theo Epstein and co. should stop looking for a highly-paid marginal upgrade in the bullpen and take a look at who they already have.

[TedWilliams101]

I somewhat agree. However, I do think it's important to have an Ace closer in todays game. Shutting the door is very important, but its a big psychological advantage to having an Ace closer. Your team will be far more confident in winning with a slightly lead. Starting pitchers love having a great setup-closer punch, knowing that they have 2 solid innings they don't have to worry about. Its also good that your pen knows its place and is comfortable. And its great for the manager to know he might only need to bridge one inning before giving the game to the setup-closer punch.

 

On the other side of the fence, I think it negatively impacts the opposing team. Look at someone as dominant as Mariano River. Almost any hitter facing him in the 9th with their team down FEELS hopeless, along with team. I think its far more a psychological thing. As for the sox, I disagree. I think we should look into get a trade for a lighs out closer. However, I agree we shouldn't ship coco away. I would much rather get a package around WMP, a prospect, etc. We do need a closer. If it wasn't the AL east I would agree. But in such a competitive division even the slightest improvements are necessary. Yes, you have to ballance it out, making sure your team will be better after a trade, but thats a whole different matter than a team not needing a designated closer. We should have one, we just need to be careful not to create any holes or downgrades elsewhere.

[riverside sluggers]

We know Timlin knows how to save a game - we've seen it multiple times. He's getting up there in age' date=' but it's not like he was a spring chicken last year, either, or the year before that.[/quote']

 

Timlin was a hack in the clutch last season, I could barely watch in September as he came in as the closer in absence of Papelbon. He helped the Sox drop to 3rd place during the last 2 months of the season.

 

The bullpen has yes gotten stronger with recent additions, but not one of those guys scream "Lights out, end of game". In this day and age, this division that includes the Yankees, a bullpen by committee is just not the best course IMO

[ORS]

I don't question the basis of the strategy, but I do question its actual application. Can Tito stick to the plan and not devolve into assigning traditional roles to players and sticking with them (like Grady did)? Do the players themselves perform better when their role is known and consistent? Sometimes the best strategic plans are only good on paper because the effect of human psychology is overlooked.

 

All that said, at this point, it might be a good idea if Bill James were to meet daily with Francona and start drilling the concept into his head.

[YanksHater213]

Why do we need a closer?

 

See: Boston Red Sox circa 2004.

[Papelbon58]

I think it is less of a necessity with Donnelly coming in. He is a top notch relief pitcher, altough he has not been a closer. His prescence will take a lot of pressure situations away from the aging Timlin. This will give Manny D and Craig Hansen time to progress, and I think one of them will eventually step into the role. In the sense of trading for a closer, I think it would be a better move to buy time for someone inside the organization to step up.

[jacksonianmarch]

paps. He was a top notch reliever. I said this was a good deal bringing in a solid major league vet. But done fool yourself here. The guy is not going to make not having a closer any easier. What he will do is make Timlins job a little easier setting up. But the closer role still needs filling.

[a700hitter]

Timlin was a hack in the clutch last season' date=' I could barely watch in September as he came in as the closer in absence of Papelbon. He helped the Sox drop to 3rd place during the last 2 months of the season.[/quote']In fairess to Timlin, he was injured for a good part of the year. Physically, he was not right. For the short time he was healthy, he was lights out. He had a ridiculously low ERA for a stretch. I think he will rebound if healthy this year. He was one of many pitching casualties of the WBC.

[Beckett95]

So we dont end up like we did in '03..

 

remember how bad that experiment was

[Beckett95]

I think the guy we should go after is Otsuka.

 

after that look at Lidge/Wheeler

 

than if we cant get any deals done for those guys, Gonzalez/Turnbow

 

if we cant get them either, than we might be screwed

 

to be honest with you, I dont think we get any of those guys mentioned above

[a700hitter]

What are the chances that we're going to consistently have a ninth-inning save opportunity with a one-run lead? I don't see it happening that often in the MLB' date=' and anything from two to three runs should be a piece of cake for any solid reliever. If they couldn't get through an inning without allowing a run, they wouldn't be in the MLB in the first place.[/quote']What numbers and stats don't reflect is just how much more difficult it is to get those last 3 outs. Anyone who has ever pitched will tell you that those are the three toughest out. The whole psychology of the batter and the pitcher are different. A pitcher who had been getting batters out all day long with pitchers off the plate will often find that the opposing batters will be taking those pitchers in the 9th because their team needs baserunners. This can force a pitcher from his earlier successful pattern of pitches. Also, not every good relief pitcher can close games whether it be with a one run or multiple run lead. There is a certain closer's mentality that the pitcher needs to have.

 

The Sox ownership and management is consistently saying that the team willl have a closer from within or outside of the organization. The "from within" portion of this statement has had me wondering. I can't believe that would think Hansen will be ready to shoulder the job. Also, Papelbon is not a consideration due to concerns about his health. I can't believe that Timlin or Tavarez are possibilities. Is there a chance that they could take a look at the fireballing Bard in that role in ST? I think that's a real possibility. Do you think anyone else in the organization is being considered?

[Beckett95]

Delcarmen maybe, Timlin maybe, Bard/Cox/Masterson probably not, but its an interesting thought

 

If Bard could get good control on his secondary pitches, he has the stuff to be a lights out closer. He has Gagne of 2003 type stuff

 

I highly doubt Hansen would be closing, hell no to Tavarez

 

 

Id like to see Byrce Cox in ST getting a legit shot. Brad Lidge stuff, and has showed great control in the college world series and in the minors

 

I think he could have a Jenks type of rookie year if he gets a chance to

just hope he doesnt end up like Hansen

[jacksonianmarch]

What numbers and stats don't reflect is just how much more difficult it is to get those last 3 outs. Anyone who has ever pitched will tell you that those are the three toughest out. The whole psychology of the batter and the pitcher are different. A pitcher who had been getting batters out all day long with pitchers off the plate will often find that the opposing batters will be taking those pitchers in the 9th because their team needs baserunners. This can force a pitcher from his earlier successful pattern of pitches. Also, not every good relief pitcher can close games whether it be with a one run or multiple run lead. There is a certain closer's mentality that the pitcher needs to have.

 

The Sox ownership and management is consistently saying that the team willl have a closer from within or outside of the organization. The "from within" portion of this statement has had me wondering. I can't believe that would think Hansen will be ready to shoulder the job. Also, Papelbon is not a consideration due to concerns about his health. I can't believe that Timlin or Tavarez are possibilities. Is there a chance that they could take a look at the fireballing Bard in that role in ST? I think that's a real possibility. Do you think anyone else in the organization is being considered?

 

I had a friend on my baseball team in college many years ago. He was a terrible starter, but as a closer, the kid was absolutely money. He got hurt one yr and we tried to switch one of our best overall pitchers into the closers role. It was a frickin disaster. The guy didnt have the stones to close. Put him back in the rotation, and we was lights out, got drafted actually.

 

I closed for a short time in college too. Nothing like it. You beat yourself up over it more than anyone else. I couldnt imagine doing it in fenway in front of 36K screaming, rabid fans every night on top of the mental torture you put yourself through as well.

 

But overall, the best closers are the ones that handle adversity well. Your guts arent tested when you come in and get 3 straight outs. Your guts are tested when you know you dont have your best stuff or when you let that first batter reach. Some completely unravel, some love the pressure. You need to have a guy who isnt afraid to fail at the biggest moments of the game. It is a special quality that only the most intense players or the silently confident ones possess. Paps and Rivera are those two polar opposites. But you need someone like that, especially in fenway. I didnt see it in Hansen. I didnt see it in MDC. Maybe this Cox kid has it. Maybe Hansack does, who knows.

[jacksonianmarch]

Delcarmen maybe, Timlin maybe, Bard/Cox/Masterson probably not, but its an interesting thought

 

If Bard could get good control on his secondary pitches, he has the stuff to be a lights out closer. He has Gagne of 2003 type stuff

 

 

so he has a 98 mph fastball and two plus plus offspeed pitches, one that is thrown to pinpoint location and is almost 40mph slower than his heater? In short, no he doesnt. Cmon now.

[Beckett95]

thats the most important part to being a closer. The mental part of it. If you can't handle that pressure situation, there no way in hell you can be an effective closer. No matter how good your stuff is.

[Beckett95]

so he has a 98 mph fastball and two plus plus offspeed pitches' date=' one that is thrown to pinpoint location and is almost 40mph slower than his heater? In short, no he doesnt. Cmon now.[/quote']

 

like i said before, he has the stuff, but not the control

 

BARD:

99 mph fastball, 95 mph 2 seamer, 89 cutter/slider, 78 curve, 70's changeup with diving movement

 

he wants to be a starter though and i dont think he has the mentality of a closer

 

COX:

97 mph fastball with movement, 87-88 slider with very good movement, also has a nasty sinker with good diving movement

 

he has some control issues too, but from the College World Series to the Sox minor leagues, his control has been great

 

http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=446358&tm=WilCAR&bp=p

 

i think this stat is pretty insane

 

Of 61 balls that were put in play against Bryce in Wilmington, only 6 of them were line drives (10.3%), 9 of them were fly balls (~15% - 0 HR's), and the other 43 were on the ground (74.1%). In the last 3 years only Wang, Westbrook, Webb, Lowe, and Mulder have been able to achieve a GB% of 60% or better in the majors and none of them every topped 70%.

[TheKilo]

Why is everyone so high on Otsuka? I really don't understand.

[Beckett95]

otsuka's stats from last year:

 

2.11 ERA

1.07 WHIP

1.46 GO/AO

4.27 K/BB

32/36 SV

 

i think thats pretty good for a closer

[Cocos Disciples]

I wouldn't mind him here...the image of him etched in my mind is giving up the walkoff to Papi in the doubleheader.

[Cityofchampions33]

I want Cordero, it should be a bit easier in getting him, cuz ya kno Bowden ain't exactly an elite GM.

[Fly on the Wall]

Hello all...first timer poster here.

 

Obviously, the Sox need to have "a closer" before April. That guy may come from within. In my opinion, unless it is a "We cant turn this deal down" opportunity that falls in the Sox laps, they should be very careful about trading Coco or WMP. Why? Well, 1. the bottom line is..there are only a few "real" closers in MLB...the rest are converted starters or middle relief guys pushed into that tole...that isnt always a bad thing..ie Detroit did just fine with one of Boston's (and several others team's) retreads in that role. 2. the Sox have made some huge inroads on a "core" of young talented players that will be locked up for several years...which means they wont be under the gun in the next few winters. Thos players include Coco and WMP. In the short term, Boston has the makings of a very good bench for '07. WMP who bats right handed with brutal power, Hinske who can play either corner in the OF or IF, bats from the left and has occasional pop. Cora, the teams

'super-sub" bats left...has little power, but always seems to do something to help the team when he plays.Meribelli,a righty, who is hoping for a bounce back season after not hitting his (considerable) weight last season. The Sox really only need a "burner" now. A very fast guy (probably an OFer) who can create havoc on the bases by stealing one...or scoring on doubles...and maybe some singles. Five bench players is one shy of the typical on most clubs, but with then versatility of Cora and Hinske defensively (not to mention the versatility of the regualr position players) the Sox have that luxury....and therefore can carry 12 pitchers...giveing them that much more flexibility in the bull pen.

 

A closer?..sure but at what cost? Timlin should be fresh, strong, and healthy...he could close initially...and the sox DO have some young arms that may be able to step into that role mid-way of the season....certainly a rookie closer isnt anything new.

[BSN07]

I think giving Cox a shot in ST is worth a shot.

[Cityofchampions33]

Yeah, unelss we get Cordeor or Otsuka, we don't really stand in any position but letting everyone internally try out for the spot.

[jacksonianmarch]

NO, not Cox. You wanna do what you did to Hansen to another kid?

[ARod2212]

Why do we need a closer?

 

To pitch the 9th inning in games you are leading. I thought you guys were supposed to be smart on the internet.

[jacksonianmarch]

Why do we need a closer?

 

To pitch the 9th inning in games you are leading. I thought you guys were supposed to be smart on the internet.

 

lol

[rician blast]

I know that it's conventional baseball wisdom that every team needs to have a designated closer on their roster. But I don't think it's really needed' date=' and although bullpen-by-committee didn't work out too well in the playoffs, I think it's time to give it one more shot, as now we have a deep enough bullpen to successfully run it, in my opinion.[/quote']

 

2003 Boston Red Sox

closer by committee for most of the season

By the end of the year they had one of the most formidable bullpens in MLB...Embree/Timlin/Williamson

 

BP by committee CAN work, as long as some ass-wipe like Grady doesn't fk it up once the 'pen is established.

[jacksonianmarch]

bullpen by committee is something that works when you have a slew of solid relievers. Bullpen by committee sucks if you have a bullpen full of sucky relievers. Right now, I'd side with the sucky part right now.

[Cocos Disciples]

Yeah...the Timlin, Delcarmen, Donnelly closer crew isn't gonna work out so well.

[jacksonianmarch]

I am a BIG believer in the traditional setup. Get guys accustomed to roles and see how it flies. The bullpen as is, sucks. Timlin closing, Donnelly as full time set up man, Okajima as the 7th inning guy, Romero as the lefty specialist, Hansack/Gabbard as the long men. That being said, add a shut down closer and the bullpen is okay. Add a shut down closer and another setup man and this bullpen will be good.