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Posted

NICE!!!

 

ESPN's Buster Olney is reporting that Andy Pettitte will return to the Yankees on a one-year contract with an option for 2008.

 

The Houston Chronicle says it's a $16 million contract with a player option for 2008. The Astros seemed to know this was coming when they attempted to trade for Jon Garland. Hopefully, they at least improved their one-year, $12 million offer, an especially preposterous figure given that Garland is due $22 million over two years. The Yankees aren't exactly getting an ace here -- in his final six seasons in New York, the only year in which he had an ERA under 3.99 was one in which he was limited to 22 starts -- but Pettitte is a better bet than Ted Lilly and Gil Meche, even before accounting for the fact that he didn't require a long-term commitment. The club may now seek to dump as much of Carl Pavano's contract as possible. Also, it seems quite likely that Scott Proctor will remain in the pen.

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Posted
Andy Pettitte isn't expected to take his physical for the Yankees for another 10 days.

The Yankees may wait until then before officially announcing the deal, though GM Brian Cashman has admitted that it's done. Pettitte gets a one-year, $16 million contract with a $16 million player option for 2008. There's apparently a gentleman's agreement between the two sides that he won't exercise the option if he's injured.

 

 

2/32 takes some of the shine off the deal...but all in all a good signing.

Posted

Well, the Yankees definitely got someone on their terms. If you look at it like the Yankees did, Pettitte is a stop gap player. Next year, RJ comes off the books with his 15+ million, followed by Pettitte and his 16 million. The year after that, both Mussina and Pavano come off the books. I give Cashman credit for improving the team without tying up the books for years to come.

 

So now, the rotation looks like this:

 

Wang

Pettitte

Mussina

Johnson

Pavano/Igawa/Karstens

 

With Hughes and Sanchez in the wings, and being eased in slowly, it definitely looks good for the long run.

 

You guys may laugh, but if Pavano comes back and pitches decently, say with a 4.50 ERA, the Yankees have as deep a rotation as there is. Not bad...

 

The gap widens....

Posted
Well, the Yankees definitely got someone on their terms. If you look at it like the Yankees did, Pettitte is a stop gap player. Next year, RJ comes off the books with his 15+ million, followed by Pettitte and his 16 million. The year after that, both Mussina and Pavano come off the books. I give Cashman credit for improving the team without tying up the books for years to come.

 

So now, the rotation looks like this:

 

Wang

Pettitte

Mussina

Johnson

Pavano/Igawa/Karstens

 

With Hughes and Sanchez in the wings, and being eased in slowly, it definitely looks good for the long run.

 

You guys may laugh, but if Pavano comes back and pitches decently, say with a 4.50 ERA, the Yankees have as deep a rotation as there is. Not bad...

 

The gap widens....

 

You had me til the last part, homie. Pettitte's deal will be judged on whether or not he makes the Yankee's rotation better. if he does, it's a success.

 

But "the gap widens.."? Does it slam shut when the Sox sign Matsuzaka?

Posted
We had a "deep" rotation last year too. I don't call a bunch of bodies a deep rotation. You have 4 good starters then a bunch of ?'s to fill the 5th spot.

 

*2 good starters (Wang, Mussina)

*2 - Pettitte - can he rebound in a much tougher division?

Johnson - can he stay healthy?

 

Then you have the #5 spot.

 

As it is, I think the Sox's rotation is slightly better overall, but the Yanks have the huge pen advantage.

Posted
We had a "deep" rotation last year too. I don't call a bunch of bodies a deep rotation. You have 4 good starters then a bunch of ?'s to fill the 5th spot.

 

Not many teams have a solid 5.

 

However, the potential we have with #5 is better than most team's #4.

 

I am still holding out that dipshit has something left. Remember, in Florida, he was pretty much as good as Beckett. Imagine if they both come back and pitch the way they can. See you in the ALCS.

Posted
*2 good starters (Wang, Mussina)

*2 - Pettitte - can he rebound in a much tougher division?

Johnson - can he stay healthy?

 

Then you have the #5 spot.

 

As it is, I think the Sox's rotation is slightly better overall, but the Yanks have the huge pen advantage.

 

I think Pettitte has had marginal success in the AL East the last time around, don't you think? If he pitches like he did in the second half of last year...hope you guys have enough for the wild card.

Posted
I think Pettitte has had marginal success in the AL East the last time around' date=' don't you think? If he pitches like he did in the second half of last year...hope you guys have enough for the wild card.[/quote']

 

238 hits, 70 walks, 27 homers in the NL Central. 1.43 WHIP.

 

And now he's moving to the AL East? Man, you're crazy you you don't expect some kind of decline from Pettitte.

 

BUT...he's better than Jaret Wright. And that makes your team better.

Posted

Pavano didn't pitch at all...we cannot expect him to win 18 games with a 3 ERA. I'm banking on 6-10 wins, 4.5-5 ERA.

 

This guy had 1 good year basically.

Career: 61-64, 4.27 ERA, 673 K in 1037 IP.

Hes not that good...

Posted
Whats his second half numbers Kilo? Or his 2005 numbers?

 

Did I not say he makes your rotation better? All I'm saying you're foolish if you think he's going to put up a sub-3.00 ERA in the AL East.

 

And if the WHIP doesn't go down, then he'll hover around 4-4.5.

Posted
Did I not say he makes your rotation better? All I'm saying you're foolish if you think he's going to put up a sub-3.00 ERA in the AL East.

 

And if the WHIP doesn't go down, then he'll hover around 4-4.5.

 

Besides Halladay what SP puts a a sub 3 ERA in the AL easy anyway? I'm expecting what Pettitte has done through his career in the AL east.

Posted
Besides Halladay what SP puts a a sub 3 ERA in the AL easy anyway? I'm expecting what Pettitte has done through his career in the AL east.

 

That's fine, but can you really live with a 1.43 WHIP in the AL East? For $16 million?

Posted
That's fine' date=' but can you really live with a 1.43 WHIP in the AL East? For $16 million?[/quote']

Again dont you think his 1.43 WHIP last year is a little skewed due to his horrible 1st half? I think he can live off of his career WHIP.

Posted
Again dont you think his 1.43 WHIP last year is a little skewed due to his horrible 1st half? I think he can live off of his career WHIP.

 

Well what was the reson for the horrible WHIP? Was he hurt?

 

Plus he's a year older.

 

I've said he makes your rotation better. So as of now it's a good deal. But what happen's if he puts up a mid 4s ERA and goes to a .500 record? Is the $16 million worth it?

Posted
Well what was the reson for the horrible WHIP? Was he hurt?

 

Plus he's a year older.

 

I've said he makes your rotation better. So as of now it's a good deal. But what happen's if he puts up a mid 4s ERA and goes to a .500 record? Is the $16 million worth it?

Maybe its just as simple as him getting off to a bad start? His second half numbers dont suggest a decline thats for sure. Well what happens if Matsuzaka bombs out, or J.D. Drew hits 230. Come on thats a silly question. Of course its a bad deal just like any other deal would be bad if the player doesnt proform.

Posted
Maybe its just as simple as him getting off to a bad start? His second half numbers dont suggest a decline thats for sure. Well what happens if Matsuzaka bombs out' date=' or J.D. Drew hits 230. Come on thats a silly question. Of course its a bad deal just like any other deal would be bad if the player doesnt proform.[/quote']

 

 

Exactly. So what were we arguing about?

Posted
You had me til the last part, homie. Pettitte's deal will be judged on whether or not he makes the Yankee's rotation better. if he does, it's a success.

 

But "the gap widens.."? Does it slam shut when the Sox sign Matsuzaka?

 

there is a major gap inbetween the teams assuming everything goes as planned on both sides. You have to be blind to not see it. The Yankees were the MUCH better team last season. Their offense and bullpen were sound and at the end of the day their rotation was much better over the entire season and that was with Jaret Wright and a MASH unit pitching in the 4 and 5 hole respectively. Remove those guys and add in Pettitte, Igawa, and potentially a healthy Pavano (lolololol, I cannot stop laughing when I put healthy and Pavano next to each other, HAHAHAHAHAHA, sorry) and the yankees are in business. Consider this for a second. The yankees top 3 in the rotation last yr threw 620IP. That is solid. Their 4 and 5 spots averaged something like 130IP per slot. That is 70IP per slot that went to the bullpen. If the yankees get out of Pettitte what they should get and Igawa is able to at least reproduce his durability, then the yankees will have what they have yearned for for the past few seasons. Not a lock down, ace loaded staff, but a staff that can eat innings. The offense is going to push 1000 runs again, something they would have accomplished last season if not for injury and now, this season, they will get a full season of Abreu and Matsui when last season they got 2 months of each. The bullpen is loaded, but is not terribly capable of being heinously overloaded. Hence adding rotation durability is very important and something that should have been alleviated with Pettitte and Igawa coming on board.

 

As for the overall +/- for 2006, the yankees dealt away or lost 2 months worth of Sheff, 137IP of Wright, a horrible outing by Dotel, the infamous Bubba Crosby, and likely Ron Villone. As of right now they have added Pettitte, Igawa, Britton and 2 top tier pitching prospects and one long range guy. The only holes remaining include a lefty reliever (potentially Marte) and a defensive right handed 1b. Nothing big. The 25 man is essentially complete with 12 spots of the pen essentially secured. If everything bounces right in the yankees rotation, then the staff will eat 1000IP and that bullpen will have an absolutely MONSTER season with the lessened workload.

 

As for the sox, their rotation last yr was awful with injuries and ineffectiveness of the like. Schilling showed his age late as he finally started to show signs of breakdown (rather than freak s*** that occured in 2004). Beckett showed ZERO signs of turning it around. His lack of a second pitch will be his undoing in Boston and right now he is not that good, at all. Wakefield is the guy I think will do the most for this pitching staff. When he is right, he goes 200+IP of 4.5ERA ball and wins half his decisions. A #5 like that is invaluable. Papelbon may or may not bust as a starter, there are plenty of cases of guys who are tried as starters after closing and flat out blow up. Plus shoulder concerns will be monitored carefully. Matsuzaka is a guy who apparently has lights out stuff, but his durability is something that will be questionable. If everything bounces the right way for the sox, they may have a 5 man rotation that is very very good. They may have 3 guys who surpass 200IP and have 2 others who they are very careful with as the mainstay of the future.

 

But who do they hand the ball to? Last season they had the 21st ranked bullpen in baseball with a 4.51ERA. Remove Papelbon and you have a bullpen era that stands near 5.10. That would be good for 28th in the MLB in front of only KC and Baltimore, two teams that ironically got a whole lot better in the pen this offseason. And what have the sox done to fix that? The Keith Foulke situation was a disaster and he left in a tizzy. But the funny thing is, his era was 4.3, remove him and that era soars up to the 5.25 range. The resigned timlin, but his post AS break ERA was 6+, that is HORRIBLE. They got a matchup lefty in Okajima, but how much can that guy really help when the team may ask him to face both lefties and righties? There is no closer, the setup man had a 6+ ERA in the second half and their only hope is Hansen and DelCarmen? Two kids who have shown no ability to handle the pressure at all and now they will have a serious, strong role in a bullpen in arguably the most rabid sports society in the entire world? Man, that is BAD news.

 

We wont event talk offense. Lugo and Drew will return then to the top 10 in the majors in total offense, but they arent fixes to the problem. There is still a possibility that their 7-9 will be a black hole which is something that no yankee fan or fan of any other AL team in 2004 would have considered them at the time. They are ploddingly slow, and they K a ton. The blend that made 2004's offense so special has been replaced with a mysterious mix that may work, may not.

 

Either way, ksushi, the yankees started out with the better team this offseason, nobody can dispute that. You added Matsuzaka (maybe), Okajima, Lugo, and Drew. The Yankees added Pettitte, Igawa, and a bunch of kids, plus maybe the ability to get a full season out of Abreu, Matsui and Pavano (LOLOLOL). I think the gap is very wide unless Hansen comes up and closes it shut. Matsuzaka is someone who will have a small impact on your overall win %, Hansen will be more important, and that is scary.

 

But who do they hand it off to?

Posted
there is a major gap inbetween the teams assuming everything goes as planned on both sides. You have to be blind to not see it. The Yankees were the MUCH better team last season. Their offense and bullpen were sound and at the end of the day their rotation was much better over the entire season and that was with Jaret Wright and a MASH unit pitching in the 4 and 5 hole respectively. Remove those guys and add in Pettitte, Igawa, and potentially a healthy Pavano (lolololol, I cannot stop laughing when I put healthy and Pavano next to each other, HAHAHAHAHAHA, sorry) and the yankees are in business. Consider this for a second. The yankees top 3 in the rotation last yr threw 620IP. That is solid. Their 4 and 5 spots averaged something like 130IP per slot. That is 70IP per slot that went to the bullpen. If the yankees get out of Pettitte what they should get and Igawa is able to at least reproduce his durability, then the yankees will have what they have yearned for for the past few seasons. Not a lock down, ace loaded staff, but a staff that can eat innings. The offense is going to push 1000 runs again, something they would have accomplished last season if not for injury and now, this season, they will get a full season of Abreu and Matsui when last season they got 2 months of each. The bullpen is loaded, but is not terribly capable of being heinously overloaded. Hence adding rotation durability is very important and something that should have been alleviated with Pettitte and Igawa coming on board.

 

As for the overall +/- for 2006, the yankees dealt away or lost 2 months worth of Sheff, 137IP of Wright, a horrible outing by Dotel, the infamous Bubba Crosby, and likely Ron Villone. As of right now they have added Pettitte, Igawa, Britton and 2 top tier pitching prospects and one long range guy. The only holes remaining include a lefty reliever (potentially Marte) and a defensive right handed 1b. Nothing big. The 25 man is essentially complete with 12 spots of the pen essentially secured. If everything bounces right in the yankees rotation, then the staff will eat 1000IP and that bullpen will have an absolutely MONSTER season with the lessened workload.

 

As for the sox, their rotation last yr was awful with injuries and ineffectiveness of the like. Schilling showed his age late as he finally started to show signs of breakdown (rather than freak s*** that occured in 2004). Beckett showed ZERO signs of turning it around. His lack of a second pitch will be his undoing in Boston and right now he is not that good, at all. Wakefield is the guy I think will do the most for this pitching staff. When he is right, he goes 200+IP of 4.5ERA ball and wins half his decisions. A #5 like that is invaluable. Papelbon may or may not bust as a starter, there are plenty of cases of guys who are tried as starters after closing and flat out blow up. Plus shoulder concerns will be monitored carefully. Matsuzaka is a guy who apparently has lights out stuff, but his durability is something that will be questionable. If everything bounces the right way for the sox, they may have a 5 man rotation that is very very good. They may have 3 guys who surpass 200IP and have 2 others who they are very careful with as the mainstay of the future.

 

But who do they hand the ball to? Last season they had the 21st ranked bullpen in baseball with a 4.51ERA. Remove Papelbon and you have a bullpen era that stands near 5.10. That would be good for 28th in the MLB in front of only KC and Baltimore, two teams that ironically got a whole lot better in the pen this offseason. And what have the sox done to fix that? The Keith Foulke situation was a disaster and he left in a tizzy. But the funny thing is, his era was 4.3, remove him and that era soars up to the 5.25 range. The resigned timlin, but his post AS break ERA was 6+, that is HORRIBLE. They got a matchup lefty in Okajima, but how much can that guy really help when the team may ask him to face both lefties and righties? There is no closer, the setup man had a 6+ ERA in the second half and their only hope is Hansen and DelCarmen? Two kids who have shown no ability to handle the pressure at all and now they will have a serious, strong role in a bullpen in arguably the most rabid sports society in the entire world? Man, that is BAD news.

 

We wont event talk offense. Lugo and Drew will return then to the top 10 in the majors in total offense, but they arent fixes to the problem. There is still a possibility that their 7-9 will be a black hole which is something that no yankee fan or fan of any other AL team in 2004 would have considered them at the time. They are ploddingly slow, and they K a ton. The blend that made 2004's offense so special has been replaced with a mysterious mix that may work, may not.

 

Either way, ksushi, the yankees started out with the better team this offseason, nobody can dispute that. You added Matsuzaka (maybe), Okajima, Lugo, and Drew. The Yankees added Pettitte, Igawa, and a bunch of kids, plus maybe the ability to get a full season out of Abreu, Matsui and Pavano (LOLOLOL). I think the gap is very wide unless Hansen comes up and closes it shut. Matsuzaka is someone who will have a small impact on your overall win %, Hansen will be more important, and that is scary.

 

But who do they hand it off to?

 

It happens. Maybe if 60% of the rotation doesn't go on the DL this year we'll have a shot.

Posted

Pettitte 2005 6.6IP/start 2.39ERA 4.1K/BB 1.03WHIP

Pettitte 2006 post AS break 6.2IP 2.80ERA 3.2K/BB 1.23WHIP

 

similar, but he was definitely better in 2005, but he made strides in every single category after the AS break last season. 2005 was more of a career yr as it was his first yr that he had less hits than IP sine 97. His WHIP in NY hovered near 1.33 his last few yrs, so his last half last season would likely be on par with his AL equivalent.

 

Listen, I am not saying the guy is going to post an era under 3 here. I see him as a guy who uses what he is given extremely well. This is Andy Pettitte. He will be given a 6 run lead and win you a game, not caring if he gives up a few runs, or he is the guy who has one run to work with and he wont bend. This is where he differs from Clemens. Pettitte is not in this thing for stats. But if you need him to hold the fort he will. He may not give you a shutout when your team scores 9 runs, which looks nice but is meaningless, he will win you that game, which is all I care about, and he will eat some innings. I could easily see a 1.3ish WHIP, an ERA around 3.8-4.2, 210+IP and 17-20 wins just by virtue of how he pitches.

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