Pitching staff projections for 07'

[BSN07]

Because i'm in Holland, and waiting on my residence permit, I have seemingly nothing better to do then make up absurd threads to spark conversation between my new best buds here on this site, I've come up with another!

 

For the sake of argument, let's say the sox opening day rotation is,

1.Schilling

2.Beckett

3.Matsuzaka

4.Papelbon

5.Wakefield

 

With that rotation there, let's have our own "projections for 07" in the form of W-L, ERA, K, BB, and anything else you would like to add on.( Remeber this is all in good fun) Just something to pass the time until the Sox have better news to talk about:):thumbsup:

 

Pitcher W L ERA K INN

 

Schilling- 13 9 3.90 175 180+

 

Beckett - 20 6 3.00 200 220

 

Matsuzaka - 16 7 3.45 220 200+

 

Papelbon - 16 7 2.75 175 180

 

Wakefield - 12 10 4.00 125 180+

 

Those are just round about guess on my behalf, so feel free to put in what you would expect.

[TheKilo]

Because i'm in Holland, and waiting on my residence permit, I have seemingly nothing better to do then make up absurd threads to spark conversation between my new best buds here on this site, I've come up with another!

 

For the sake of argument, let's say the sox opening day rotation is,

1.Schilling

2.Beckett

3.Matsuzaka

4.Papelbon

5.Wakefield

 

With that rotation there, let's have our own "projections for 07" in the form of W-L, ERA, K, BB, and anything else you would like to add on.( Remeber this is all in good fun) Just something to pass the time until the Sox have better news to talk about:):thumbsup:

 

Pitcher W L ERA K INN

 

Schilling- 13 9 3.90 175 180+

 

Beckett - 20 6 3.00 200 220

 

Matsuzaka - 16 7 3.45 220 200+

 

Papelbon - 16 7 2.75 175 180

 

Wakefield - 12 10 4.00 125 180+

 

Those are just round about guess on my behalf, so feel free to put in what you would expect.

 

 

 

 

I'll just do W-L.

 

Schilling : 17-10

Beckett : 16-9

Matsuzaka : 15-8

Papelbon : 8-13

Wakefield : 12-12

[jacksonianmarch]

wow. WOW. LOL. 20 wins for Papelbon and a sub 3 era? Those are CY numbers. How's about this, I will just do ERA's as wins are a tough stat to predict and since the sox offense is not done yet, it is not possible.

 

Schilling low to mid 4's. He broke down last yr and he is 40. He doesnt have the heat once had on a regular basis and if you want precedent take a look at a certain lanky lefty from 200 miles west to see what happens to power pitchers as they near the grave.

 

Beckett mid 4's era. Improvement over last yr no question, but I still think his lack of confidence in his curveball will continue to cause pitches to fly out of park and guys to be walked.

 

Matsuzaka high 3's era. First yr, the advantage is to the pitcher. That era will likely sit in the low 4's as he ages, but low 4's era and 200 innings is ace material in baseball these days.

 

Papelbon mid 4's era, injury shortened season. I can just see that shoulder being a problem. I'm no doctor, but subluxing a shoulder to me screams instability and that aint a good thing.

 

Wake. High 4's era 200 innings .500 record like clockwork.

 

That is a solid rotation, but the wins will depend on who is closing and who is hitting.

[jacksonianmarch]

that guy predicted the sox rotation to have 71 wins, or the equivalent of the rotation that averages 14-15 wins a person. That is funny.

[a700hitter]

Papelbon mid 4's era' date=' injury shortened season. I can just see that shoulder being a problem. I'm no doctor, but subluxing a shoulder to me screams instability and that aint a good thing.[/quote']Wang almost needed rotator cuff surgery in 2005, but he had no problems in 2006. I don't think any predictions can be made about Papelbon's health that are not just total guesses.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wang almost needed rotator cuff surgery in 2005' date=' but he had no problems in 2006. I don't think any predictions can be made about Papelbon's health that are not just total guesses.[/quote']

 

agreed. But if I had to make a prediction, that is what I think will happen in a full season. Also, Wang had shoulder tendonitis that was not getting any better when they told him he'd need surgery. Papelbon did not have tendonitis, he actually had his shoulder slip out of the joint momentarily. That is scary and it tells me that his cuff is loose, not inflamed like Wang's was.

[a700hitter]

agreed. But if I had to make a prediction' date=' that is what I think will happen in a full season. Also, Wang had shoulder tendonitis that was not getting any better when they told him he'd need surgery. Papelbon did not have tendonitis, he actually had his shoulder slip out of the joint momentarily. That is scary and it tells me that his cuff is loose, not inflamed like Wang's was.[/quote']As non-doctors, we don't know which condition is more career threatening. Shoulder tendonititis can become a chronic condition. Loose joints on the other hand, I haven't heard about many pitchers haveing problems with that. He probably needs a special program to strengthen the muscles around the joint to keep it stable. If he is following his program over the winter, I don't anticipate problems for him unless the incident last year caused other damage.

[RedSoxRooter]

Sweet! I love speculation like this.

 

So here goes.

 

Schilling 17-11, 3.90 era. Leaves it all on the table in his final season.

Matsuzaka 15-8, 3.80 era. He will throw a lot of pitches and be out of games in the middle of the 6th inning. He'll get a lot of no decisions.

Beckett 16-12, 4.30 era. Until he changes his mindset or gets hurt, he is what he is.

Papelbon 8-4, 3.77 era as a starter

Wakefield 5-4 4.65 era as a starter

TBD - 8-10, 5.23 era

 

Wake starts the season as closer with Papelbon in the rotation.

 

Wake gets 26 save opportunities and goes 2-5 with 10 blown saves but does have 16 saves by the time Gagne can pitch. Gagne comes of the DL in June and pitches great for a month. He goes 1-1 with a 3 era and has 7 saves, then gets injured just after the trade deadline.

 

Papelbon is then thrust back into the closer role and collects 15 out of 19 saves (2007 total: 10-5, 3.52 era, 15 saves). Wake goes to the rotation to fill Paps spot and wins his games (5-4 4.65 era - 2007 total: 7-10, 4.47 era, 16 saves) .

 

Sox come in second to the Yanks and get the wildcard. They win the ALDS against TX but lose the ALCS to the Cleveland who wins the World Series over the Cubs.

[castigs850]

 

Papelbon is then thrust back into the closer role and collects 15 out of 19 saves (2007 total: 10-5, 3.52 era, 15 saves). Wake goes to the rotation to fill Paps spot and wins his games (5-4 4.65 era - 2007 total: 7-10, 4.47 era, 16 saves) .

 

Sox come in second to the Yanks and get the wildcard. They win the ALDS against TX but lose the ALCS to the Cleveland who wins the World Series over the Cubs.

 

NICE!!!! lol

[ORS]

agreed. But if I had to make a prediction' date=' that is what I hope will happen in a full season. Also, Wang had shoulder tendonitis that was not getting any better when they told him he'd need surgery. Papelbon did not have tendonitis, he actually had his shoulder slip out of the joint momentarily. That is scary and it tells me that his cuff is loose, not inflamed like Wang's was.

There, that makes it more correct.

 

The kid has loose joints. His mom posts on soxprospects, and, according to her, it's a family thing. He wasn't hurt last year, and he could have gone back out there, but the season was tanked at that point so they played it cautious. Doctors, not just Sox doctors either, believe the rotation will limit the amount of constant strain on his shoulder. Kid has gone from starting to closing to starting to closing in the last 6-7 years and hasn't had a significant injury yet. Predicting one to come reeks of wish casting. Thanks for the input, Dr.

[example1]

Schilling: 17-9, 4.25 ERA, 200+ IP

Beckett: 19-9, 4.18 ERA, 200+ IP

Matsuzaka: 16-5, 3.20 ERA, 200+ IP

Papelbon: 13-8, 4.15 ERA, 200+ IP

Wakefield: 13-11, 4.70 ERA, 180 IP

 

Some lofty predictions, yes, but I think the amount of runs scored will stay up and that the days of "a 2-something ERA is what a GOOD pitcher has" are over. Now, any ERA in the threes is pretty darn good, until they raise the mound again.

 

Papelbon won't be as good as a starter, but he will have some dominant games and will have lots of quality starts. Just not as dominant as a 1 or 2 starter would be. I'm convinced Matsuzaka will have a good year and will come in 3rd for the Cy Young voting.

[jacksonianmarch]

There, that makes it more correct.

 

The kid has loose joints. His mom posts on soxprospects, and, according to her, it's a family thing. He wasn't hurt last year, and he could have gone back out there, but the season was tanked at that point so they played it cautious. Doctors, not just Sox doctors either, believe the rotation will limit the amount of constant strain on his shoulder. Kid has gone from starting to closing to starting to closing in the last 6-7 years and hasn't had a significant injury yet. Predicting one to come reeks of wish casting. Thanks for the input, Dr.

 

So he has a family history of loose joints? Dont you think that should worry you?

 

Oh that chest pain I was having is normal. I have a family history of heart disease.

 

That statement is about as absurd as the one about his loose joints. First of all, if he has loose joints to begin with, then he is more prone to sublux which would mean that he has a higher chance to seriously injure his arm. You just proved my point.

[ORS]

So he has a family history of loose joints? Dont you think that should worry you?

 

Oh that chest pain I was having is normal. I have a family history of heart disease.

 

That statement is about as absurd as the one about his loose joints. First of all, if he has loose joints to begin with, then he is more prone to sublux which would mean that he has a higher chance to seriously injure his arm. You just proved my point.

Why should his joint mobility worry me? He's never missed significant time due to injury. The fact that he has loose joints means it is more likely that he'll experience partial dislocations, but, due to the joint mobility, that won't be as big a deal as it would be for someone with less joint mobility. Loose joints occur from flexible muscle/tendon/cartiledge in the joint. A stiffer joint gets injured in a partial subluxation, but a flexible one can take the stress easier. That's why he wasn't hurt this year, and the time he missed was just precautionary.

 

Whatever, though. Predicting injuries is always fun when it conveniently takes out some of the opposition's better players.

[example1]

I'm confused... Papelbon rolls loose joints and this concerns people? Or was it Papelbon's mother? I always suspected something was making Hansen overly mellow in the bullpen and I guess we know why now.

 

seroiusly though, who cares about loose joints? Until Papelbon is out for 2 consecutive seasons a la Mr Pavano I won't start to complain about his durability.

[jacksonianmarch]

Why should his joint mobility worry me? He's never missed significant time due to injury. The fact that he has loose joints means it is more likely that he'll experience partial dislocations, but, due to the joint mobility, that won't be as big a deal as it would be for someone with less joint mobility. Loose joints occur from flexible muscle/tendon/cartiledge in the joint. A stiffer joint gets injured in a partial subluxation, but a flexible one can take the stress easier. That's why he wasn't hurt this year, and the time he missed was just precautionary.

 

Whatever, though. Predicting injuries is always fun when it conveniently takes out some of the opposition's better players.

 

A loose joint has the propensity to stretch out even further. The rotator cuff is a compilation of 4 tendons. Tendons are attached to muscles. Muscles operate by what is called starling forces which determine the amount of preload needed for maximum force generation. If you stretch the muscle too much, the preload surpasses optimal force and begins to generate a weaker and weaker force. That is why pitchers who "stretch" out their shoulder need to have their shoulder "tightened up". It is a process by which the tendons are cut and screwed into the shoulder to make up for the over-stretching. If this guy does in fact have "loose joints" to begin with, he has a better likelihood that his shoulder will eventually need to be fixed.

 

Google is a wonderful tool.

[ORS]

A loose joint has the propensity to stretch out even further. The rotator cuff is a compilation of 4 tendons. Tendons are attached to muscles. Muscles operate by what is called starling forces which determine the amount of preload needed for maximum force generation. If you stretch the muscle too much, the preload surpasses optimal force and begins to generate a weaker and weaker force. That is why pitchers who "stretch" out their shoulder need to have their shoulder "tightened up". It is a process by which the tendons are cut and screwed into the shoulder to make up for the over-stretching. If this guy does in fact have "loose joints" to begin with, he has a better likelihood that his shoulder will eventually need to be fixed.

 

Google is a wonderful tool.

Wait. Now you are changing your track. It was injury before. Now it's less velocity and a procedure to "tighten" it up - which would occur in the offseason. That subverts your original prediction.

 

Logic is a wonderful tool also.

[a700hitter]

A loose joint has the propensity to stretch out even further. The rotator cuff is a compilation of 4 tendons. Tendons are attached to muscles. Muscles operate by what is called starling forces which determine the amount of preload needed for maximum force generation. If you stretch the muscle too much, the preload surpasses optimal force and begins to generate a weaker and weaker force. That is why pitchers who "stretch" out their shoulder need to have their shoulder "tightened up". It is a process by which the tendons are cut and screwed into the shoulder to make up for the over-stretching. If this guy does in fact have "loose joints" to begin with, he has a better likelihood that his shoulder will eventually need to be fixed.

 

Google is a wonderful tool.

Thank goodness we didn't have google when Lance Armstrong was diagnosed with cancer. No one would have ever predicted all his victories.

[jacksonianmarch]

Thank goodness we didn't have google when Lance Armstrong was diagnosed with cancer. No one would have ever predicted all his victories.

 

actually testicular cancer is extremely curable even when it metastasizes. His victories are not predictable for any person, let alone a cancer survivor.

[jacksonianmarch]

Wait. Now you are changing your track. It was injury before. Now it's less velocity and a procedure to "tighten" it up - which would occur in the offseason. That subverts your original prediction.

 

Logic is a wonderful tool also.

 

It is not just less velocity per se. It is less supply for the same demand. I do know physics and if you continually put the same force applied on a weaker muscle, you will overpower the system. Hence injury.

[example1]

Dude, is your main argument that Papelbon is an injury waiting to happen or that he's not going to be effective or that his arm is going to fall off mid-pitch? I don't get your point, other than to argue that Papelbon isn't a good bet despite him saying he's healthy, the team saying he's healthy and his performance last year?

 

It just seems like prideful razzing if anything.

[jacksonianmarch]

I kinda got sidetracked. My point is that he is an injury ???. Those who wish to point to a family history as a cop out to avoid having to deal with this injury do not have ground to stand on. That is all. Next yr will answer a lot.

[example1]

Papelbon is a horse. He's going to through a lot of innings in his MLB career. I don't worry about that too much.

[a700hitter]

I kinda got sidetracked. My point is that he is an injury ???. Those who wish to point to a family history as a cop out to avoid having to deal with this injury do not have ground to stand on. That is all. Next yr will answer a lot.

... and Mo is an injury ??? at his advanced age and in light of his elbow problems at year's end. Randy johnson's back is not looking too good for a big 2007.

[jacksonianmarch]

... and Mo is an injury ??? at his advanced age and in light of his elbow problems at year's end. Randy johnson's back is not looking too good for a big 2007.

 

are we talking about them? Last I checked this was a red sox predictions page. If you want to do a yankee predictions page, you would be incomplete, because they are still short one pitcher.

[a700hitter]

are we talking about them? Last I checked this was a red sox predictions page. If you want to do a yankee predictions page' date=' you would be incomplete, because they are still short one pitcher.[/quote']The thread is about predictions regarding pitchers stats, not a debate of the seriousness of Papelbon's shoulder condition and whether or not it is a chronic injury. We don't need pathology reports from Google. If we are going to morph this thread into a discussion of loose joints and their effects on long-term health of pitchers, I'd like to discuss the effects of multiple laminectomies on the performance of 6'10" left-handed pitches, or the the degenerative effects of pitching 10 years on the elbow.

[jacksonianmarch]

The thread is about predictions regarding pitchers stats' date=' not a debate of the seriousness of Papelbon's shoulder condition and whether or not it is a chronic injury. We don't need pathology reports from Google. If we are going to morph this thread into a discussion of loose joints and their effects on long-term health of pitchers, I'd like to discuss the effects of multiple laminectomies on the performance of 6'10" left-handed pitches, or the the degenerative effects of pitching 10 years on the elbow.[/quote']

 

I dont think that 6'10" lefty can get any worse, can he?

[Beckett95]

Schilling: 18-9, 3.95 ERA, 200 IP

Beckett: 15-9, 4.05 ERA, 210 IP

Matsuzaka: 16-6, 3.35 ERA, 225 IP

Papelbon: 14-9, 3.50 ERA, 200 IP

Wakefield: 11-10, 4.65 ERA, 180 IP

 

nasty rotation if they can stay healthy.

[example1]

I dont think that 6'10" lefty can get any worse' date=' can he?[/quote']

 

I don't know, I heard a lot of people last year saying "RJ isn't that bad. He's still better than who the Red Sox have." While that is probably true, it sort of goes to show that he could be worse. I think he could be considerably worse than he was, and I don't see any reason to think he'll be better.

[jacksonianmarch]

He actually wasnt THAT bad in that his WHIP was 1.24 and he did K 172 batters. The one thing Johnson does is give torre an innings eater and coming off back surgery, he is either going to be better (pain relief) or significantly worse (age plus lack of flexibility of a fused spine). If he doesnt eat innings for NY next yr, then the yankees would need a Zito to pick up the slack.

[BSN07]

I think Zito is going to the Mets. For NYY to land him it's gonna have to be a huge offer.